Politics
The Democrats’ Black voter crisis is overblown

Do the Democrats have a Black voter problem? If you’re plugged into the political news cycle, it certainly feels like they do. Former President Donald Trump has been boasting that he has “gone through the roof with Black men.” His predecessor, former President Barack Obama, has been admonishing Black men for seeming to balk at supporting Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris. Pundits have seized on the issue as an unexpected weakness for Harris and her party. In what may have been a response to all the hubbub, Harris released a policy rollout specifically aimed at appealing to Black men.
But Democrats ought to tune out Trump’s taunting and not panic. The general outlook of the political scientists I spoke to is that there isn’t enough reliable data to suggest that Harris is facing an emergency situation with Black voters. In fact, they pointed out that there are indicators that Harris could be on track to match Biden’s performance in 2020. (On average, exit polls found that Biden received the support of 87% of Black voters, while Trump received 12%.) That’s not to say that Harris should take the Black vote for granted or that she should neglect targeted outreach in Black communities. But fixating on questionable data over how much of the Black male vote she’ll get can distract from a lot of bigger issues that the party is facing.
The bigger issue comes down to whether Harris can turn out Black voters in big numbers.
A lot of the alarmist headlines are based on comparisons of previous elections to this year’s polls. That’s comparing apples and oranges: Polls are deeply flawed tools for predicting turnout. Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020 overperformed with Black voters compared to polls prior to the election, said Christopher Towler, a professor at Sacramento State University who runs the Black Voter Project. Part of the reason is that polling captured sentiment from Black voters who were less supportive of Democrats but also less likely to vote. That very well could be happening this time as well.Another issue is that a lot of the national polls involve extrapolating off a relatively small number of Black respondents. “It tends to be the case in typical news media polls that Black men are under-sampled,” Chryl Laird, a political scientist at the University of Maryland, College Park, told me. That can distort numbers dramatically. Trump’s apparent doubling of Black supporters could potentially be explained by the margin of error with a small sample.
Towler’s Black Voter Project involves longitudinal and large-scale panel surveys of Black voters. His larger sample size makes his numbers more reliable, and his findings from a survey conducted from late July through mid-August found that Harris’ numbers were not necessarily in a dire state: Among likely Black voters asked who they’d vote for if they had to vote that day, 81% said they’d vote for Harris and 11% said Trump; 4% said they weren’t sure, 2% said they would vote for then-independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., 1% said they’d vote for Cornel West and 1% said they would not vote. (When given only the choice of Harris or Trump, the split was 84% for Harris and 12% for Trump.) Those numbers do not suggest that Democrats should panic. The survey began just days after Harris entered the race and ended shortly after she’d entered, and the results left her with room to grow. Trump’s support among Black voters in that survey roughly tracks with the level of support he got in 2020 and is a far cry from the shocking figures seen in national polls taken around the same time that used a smaller sample of Black voters.
Another poll focused specifically on a large set of Black voters in swing states, conducted in October by Howard University’s Initiative on Public Opinion, found that Harris had 84% support, Trump had 8%, and 8% remained undecided. Given trends in how Black voters generally break for Democrats, statistically speaking the undecided voters are most likely going to either break for Harris or not vote, Towler said.
Put it together and the more reliable statistics from larger samples of Black voters do not forecast a massive, game-changing defection to Trump. The bigger issue comes down to whether Harris can turn out Black voters in big numbers.
It cannot be ruled out that Harris could underperform Biden with Black voters, and Black men in particular. But that might be the wrong way to look at the issue, considering other trends in Democrats hemorrhaging voters. Harris seems to be performing worse among men overall than Biden was earlier in the race, according to successive New York Times-Siena polls. And Democrats continue to struggle to find a way to fight off Trump’s domination among non-college-educated voters. Focusing on small percentage drops of Black men — the population of voters who turn out second only to Black women in supporting Democrats — may obscure the bigger, more worrying trend lines that Democrats face. Based on what we know, it’s blinkered to argue that the Democrats’ crisis is with Black voters.
It is striking that Harris looks like she’s not coming close to generating “the Obama effect” among Black voters — in 2008, he garnered the support of 95% of Black voters and generated historic turnout. A number of factors could be at play. Obama may have monopolized the excitement of being the first Black president (who also disappointed many on the left and oversaw a massive drop in Black wealth while in office). Obama had more time and more charisma on his side. And sexism against Harris could be suppressing enthusiasm about her.
Either way, with the tight margins of the race, Harris’ ability to generate high Black turnout will be crucial. That means making sure to spend more resources on targeting Black voters with the right messaging and get-out-the-vote operations. Neither history nor the evidence, however, suggests Trump’s support from Black men is anywhere close to going through the roof.
Zeeshan Aleem is a writer and editor for BLN Daily. Previously, he worked at Vox, HuffPost and Blue Light News, and he has also been published in, among other places, The New York Times, The Atlantic, The Nation, and The Intercept. You can sign up for his free politics newsletter here.
Politics
‘Uniting anger’: Democrats fume over Schumer’s handling of funding fight
Chuck Schumer is facing one of the most perilous moments of his Senate leadership career.
The Senate minority leader came under heavy fire for the second straight day from Democrats enraged at him for backing a Republican bill to avoid a government shutdown, and fallout appears likely to last well past Friday’s vote.
A handful of House lawmakers, including some in battleground districts, are floating supporting a primary challenge against him. Activists are organizing efforts to punish him financially. Schumer is facing questions within his own caucus about whether he made strategic errors in handling the high-stakes moment and failed to outline a clear plan about how to deal with the complex politics of a shutdown, according to interviews with six lawmakers or their aides. Some Democratic senators are even privately questioning whether he should stay on as their leader.
“He’s done a great deal of damage to the party,” said Ezra Levin, co-founder of the liberal group Indivisible, which has scheduled an emergency call Saturday with its New York chapter and other local leaders to “seriously consider if the current [Democratic] leadership is equipped to handle the moment we’re in.”
In a remarkable sign of how deep the intraparty frustration with Schumer runs, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries refused to throw his fellow New Yorker a life raft. Asked by reporters on Friday if there should be new leadership in the Senate, he said, “Next question.”
Schumer’s one-time partner, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), went so far as to urge senators to vote against his position, saying that “this false choice that some are buying instead of fighting is unacceptable.” And dozens of House Democrats sent a sharply worded letter to Schumer Friday, which expressed “strong opposition” to his standpoint, arguing that the “American people sent Democrats to Congress to fight against Republican dysfunction and chaos” and that the party should not be “capitulating to their obstruction.”
Though several senators said they supported his leadership, some Senate Democrats avoided questions when asked directly Friday about whether they continued to support him in the role.
“We still have more to play out on this,” said Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.). “So I’m not really thinking about the big-picture politics.”
Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) also dodged, saying: “The leader I don’t have confidence in is Donald Trump.” And Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) responded to a query on whether he still supports Schumer by calling for a “good post-mortem” on Senate Democrats’ approach to the government funding fight.
“Anytime you have a failure — and this is a failure altogether — we as a caucus owe it to Democrats across the country and our constituents to look back and see: How do we get ourselves into this situation?” he said.
One Democratic senator granted anonymity to share private discussions said conversations are starting about whether Schumer should be their leader going forward.
“There’s a lot of concern about the failure to have a plan and execute on it,” the senator said. “It’s not like you couldn’t figure out that this is what was going to happen.”
The frustration toward Schumer reflects a boiling anger among Democrats over what they view as their party’s lack of a strategy for taking on Trump in his second term. Though few in Democratic circles think Schumer’s job as minority leader is at risk — and he isn’t up for reelection until 2028 — the frustration toward him spans the party’s spectrum, from moderates to progressives, both in and outside of Congress.
Schumer has defended his vote to keep the government running as the best of two bad choices aimed at not ceding Trump and billionaire adviser Elon Musk even more power to slash the government. Nine Democratic senators and an independent who caucuses with Democrats joined him to advance the bill, enough to prevent a government shutdown.
“A government shutdown gives Donald Trump, Elon Musk and DOGE almost complete power as to what to close down, because they can decide what is an essential service,” Schumer said in a BLN interview. “My job as leader is to lead the party, and if there’s going to be danger in the near future, to protect the party. And I’m proud I did it. I knew I did the right thing, and I knew there’d be some disagreements. That’s how it always is.”
He added that he is not concerned with his leadership position: “I have the overwhelming support of my caucus. And so many of the members thanked me and said, ‘You did what you thought was courageous, and we respect it.’”
But behind closed doors, even some longtime Schumer allies are raising the specter that his time has passed.
“Biden is gone. Pelosi is in the background. Schumer is the last one left from that older generation,” said one New York-based donor who is a longtime supporter of the leader. “I do worry that the older generation thinks 2024 was just about inflation, but no, the game has changed. It’s not left wing or moderate, it’s everyone now saying — the game is different now. But he was set up to battle in 2006, and we’re a long way from 2006.”
Adam Green, co-founder of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, said “active conversations” are taking place among liberal groups about how to make Schumer pay. He said Schumer will likely face protests over his support for the GOP bill at his tour stops next week for his new book “Antisemitism In America: A Warning.” But he said the effort to hold him “accountable” will not end there.
“He has to be made an example of to enforce Democratic backbone going forward,” he said.
And it’s far from just progressives.
“I have not seen such uniting anger across the party in a long, long time,” said Charlotte Clymer, a Democratic operative associated with the moderate wing of the party who launched a petition to boycott donations to Senate Democrats until they force Schumer out as minority leader. “Sen. Schumer has managed to unite us far more than Trump has in recent months.”
After the GOP bill advanced Friday, Congressional Progressive Caucus chair Greg Casar said in a statement that “we need more leaders from the stand and fight wing of the Democratic Party.” MoveOn warned that the liberal group’s “members will be demanding answers from their elected officials” about the vote. The progressive organization Justice Democrats sent a text to supporters reading “F*ck Chuck Schumer.”
Also on Friday, dozens of protesters organized by the Sunrise Movement descended on Schumer’s office in the Hart Senate building holding signs that read: “Schumer: step up or step aside,” demanding he reverse course on supporting the bill. The group said 11 people were arrested.
“We have to reckon with the fact that young people, working-class people, people of color — the backbone of the Democratic Party — are moving away from the party,” said Stevie O’Hanlon, the organization’s political director. “Chuck Schumer is part of that reason.”
Still, some Democratic senators publicly stood by Schumer on Friday.
Asked if people are urging her to run for Schumer’s job, Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.), said, “No, no,” adding, “I’m doing my job today.”
Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.), who is retiring after this term, called Schumer “a good leader.” Sen. John Hickenlooper (D-Colo.) told reporters he still has confidence in Schumer in the top role.
Others acknowledged the difficult position Schumer found himself in as he attempted to steer his caucus through a lesser-of-two-evils situation without the same simple-majority cover that Jeffries had in the House.
“It’s tough to be the leader,” said Sen. Jack Reed (D-R.I.).
With reporting by Emily Ngo and Hailey Fuchs.
Politics
Trump lauds Schumer’s ‘guts’ in backing bill to avoid shutdown
President Donald Trump on Friday congratulated Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer for “doing the right thing” by backing the Republican-led bill to avert a government shutdown, a choice that’s put the New York Democrat at odds with many in his party. “A non pass would be a Country destroyer…
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