The Dictatorship
The cracks in GOP support for Trump’s tariffs are already expanding
After President Donald Trump “liberated” Americans from a strong economy Wednesday, the Senate held an extraordinary vote. By 51-48, the chamber passed a privileged resolution authored by Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine of Virginia that would revoke the tariffs Trump imposed on Canada earlier this year. Four Republicans — Rand Paul and Mitch McConnell of KentuckyLisa Murkowski of Alaska and Susan Collins of Maine — voted with every Democrat to rebuke the president’s trade policy.
In practical terms, for now, Kaine’s resolution means little. The president is plowing ahead with his new, far larger tariffs. “The markets are going to boom, the stock is going to boom, the country is going to boom,” Trump told reporters Thursday, amid the worst day for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq since 2020.
But the Senate vote, one of the first significant legislative losses of Trump’s second term, highlights an opening for Democrats with ramifications beyond even the global economy.
Even before this week, Republicans were already looking to duck votes on Trump’s tariffs.
Most obviously, Trump’s new tariffs create more chances for Democrats in Congress to jam up their GOP counterparts. The president’s handling of the economy already polls poorlyand most Americans are skeptical of his tariff policies in particular. They have good reason to be: The Yale Budget Lab estimates that the price increases from all of Trump’s tariffs are equivalent to “average per household consumer loss of $3,800,” with lower-income households hurt most.
But Republican lawmakers can’t just blame Trump. Though the executive branch typically controls tariff policy nowadays, the Constitution grants Congress the tariff power. Republicans on Capitol Hill may not have initiated a trade war with the penguins of Heard Islandbut they could end it tomorrow.
Even before this week, Republicans were already looking to duck votes on Trump’s tariffs. The funding bill Congress passed last month included a provision preventing a vote on ending the emergency Trump claimed to impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico.
But Republicans won’t be able to avoid these difficult votes entirely. Rep. Gregory Meeks, D-N.Y., is exploring a “discharge petition” to force a vote on Kaine’s resolution in the House. Kaine himself plans a similar vote regarding the tariffs Trump announced Wednesday. Most significantly, on Thursday Republican Sen. Chuck Grassley of Iowa joined with Democratic Sen. Maria Cantwell of Washington to introduce a bill to require the president to notify Congress within 48 hours of imposing new tariffs. Congress would have to ratify the new tariffs within 60 days, or they would expire. Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., said he would vote for the billbecoming the sixth Republican to break with Trump’s tariff policy. Even Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, said he was against imposing “high tariffs in perpetuity.”
For Democrats, these votes are win-win situations. The more Republicans block these bills, the easier it is for Democratic challengers to hang those votes around GOP necks next fall. On the other hand, if these votes can make GOP defections from Trump even a little regular, that will complicate Republican policymaking enormously.
Trump’s clout keeps the wheels of Republican lawmaking turning.
Since Trump’s inauguration, two factors have controlled the execution of Republicans’ legislative agenda. First, their narrow majorities in the House and the Senate require near-unanimous support. Just this week, House Speaker Mike Johnson attempted to block a bill from Rep. Anna Paulina Luna, R-Fla., that would allow proxy voting for new parents in Congress. Only seven other Republicans joined Luna in opposing Johnson’s move. But that was enough, combined with all 213 Democrats, to defeat the speaker (who immediately and huffily sent the House home early for the week).
As with Kaine’s resolution, Johnson’s loss was largely symbolic. For the GOP to avoid more significant defeats, however, every faction of the party must be on board with bills before they reach the floor. Getting near-universal buy-in is a time-consuming process, and it threatens to grind the bill-writing to halt. So far, though, those delays have been minimal, because of the second factor: Trump currently can command GOP unanimity on demand.
Ahead of multiple crucial votes this year, individual Republicans’ qualms have vanished under pressure from the president. Even before Inauguration Day, Trump headed off a far-right rebellion that could have delayed or even prevented Johnson’s re-election as speaker. In the lead-up to last month’s government funding bill, he persuaded the Freedom Caucus to back the legislation with far smaller cuts than the right-wing group has demanded in the past. Most recently, several Senate Republicans held up a budget resolution in hope of demanding bigger spending cuts. “But a meeting with Trump Wednesday morning,” reported Punchbowl News“changed everything. Suddenly, deficit hawks were warming to the plan. [Senate Majority Leader John] Thune and other Republicans attributed the difference to Trump.”
In short, Trump’s clout keeps the wheels of Republican lawmaking turning. If his grip weakens even slightly, Johnson and Thune can’t rely as easily on Trump’s bully pulpit to smooth over intraparty disputes. Longer negotiations mean fewer bills and less damage the GOP majority can cause the country.
“The most important economic question right now,” former Council of Economic Advisers chair Jared Bernstein wrote Thursdayis “will [Trump] back down?” The most important political question, likewise, is: Will Republicans in Congress back down from their complete fealty to Trump?
For now, fear keeps the GOP lawmakers in line — fear of even a single cross word from Trump. Changing that calculus even slightly might just stop the destructive tariffs, save the economy and short-circuit Republicans’ congressional majority in the process.
James Downie is a writer and editor for BLN Daily. He was an editor and columnist for The Washington Post and has also written for The New Republic and Foreign Policy.
President Donald Trump was “thunderously booed” Monday night at Madison Square Garden in New York City when he was shown on the Jumbotron ahead of Game 3 of the NBA Finalsaccording to the White House press pool report.
The stadium’s reaction comes after some New York Knicks fans warned he would not receive a warm welcome during the home game matchup against the San Antonio Spurs — despite New York City being the president’s hometown.
The White House press pool report described the boos as “loud and long” and noted the reaction “quickly changed to cheers when the camera quickly panned to [Knicks guard] Jalen Brunson on the court.”
Trump was “standing with his hand over his heart” during the National Anthem as he was met with boos, the pool report said, adding that he was standing between his granddaughter Kai Trump and Knicks owner James Dolan, who “seemed to be smirking at the boos.”
The president’s posse included several administration officials, also watching in the suite, including Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Lee Zeldin, White House Deputy Chief of Staff Dan Scavino and Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy.
At least one Trump official made a courtside appearance with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick seated next to rappers Fat Joe and famed producer DJ Khaled.
The Knicks came into Monday night’s game leading the series 2-0, and fans are hoping for a sweep. That is, defeating the Spurs in four consecutive games without a single loss. The team is on the precipice of earning its first championship since 1973, but Trump’s attendance has sparked outcry from many fans.
Trump, who was invited to attend by Dolan, is the first sitting president to attend an NBA Finals game. Security at the arena has been enhanced in response, and fans attending the game have been encouraged to arrive at least two hours before tipoff to allow extra time for TSA-style screening.
To many fans’ disappointment, New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani announced that the watch party typically held outside MSG during games has been canceled due to Trump’s visit after the mayor, the U.S. Secret Service and the NYPD determined that it would hinder the heightened security measures required for Trump.
Mamdani announced Monday that Bryant Park will serve as a free alternative Knicks watch party location.
The president’s attendance comes against the backdrop of high-stakes elections and international conflict, including the war with Iranwhich has entered its 15th week, marking just over 100 days since the U.S. and Israel launched a joint attack against the country on Feb. 28. His visit also comes weeks after he declined to attend the wedding of his eldest son, Donald Trump Jr., citing “a thing called Iran and other things.”
This is a developing story. Check back for updates.
Erum Salam is a breaking news reporter for MS NOW, with a focus on how global events and foreign policy shape U.S. politics. She previously was a breaking news reporter for The Guardian.
ByRichard L. Hasen
During normal times, the president of the United States would not routinely claim, without evidence, an epidemic of “voter fraud.” But Donald Trump is on another tirade about supposed fraud — this time in California’s primary elections. If there’s any good news, though, the publicity and pushback against his claims will inoculate the public against similar unsupported charges in November’s midterms, if control of Congress depends upon late-arriving results in the Golden State.
Let’s begin with some obvious points. California’s vote-counting process is notoriously slow. Millions of the state’s voters choose to vote by mail, and election officials’ efforts to confirm that voters have followed all the rules take some time. The state has unusually lenient rules for both the receipt of mail-in ballots (timely postmarked ballots may be counted if election officials receive them within seven days of the election) and for curing defective ballots (such as mail ballots on which a voter forgets to add their signature). Despite the popularity of mail-in ballots, the state has not prioritized saving state resources over a quicker vote count.
Further, it is rather routine that California results show Republican and more conservative candidates doing well in initial tallies, only for Democrats and liberal candidates to appear to “gain” as more ballots are tallied. Voters who have lived in the same place longer, own a home, are white and are wealthier are all more likely to receive and send back their ballots early — and they are also more likely to vote Republican.
President Trump has incessantly fueled beliefs on the right that voter fraud is prevalent in Democratic states.
Think about election tallying this way. You have to be away from your television during the Super Bowl and so you record the game. When you watch it the next day — having avoided hearing the result in between — the game is already over. The winner was the same before you watched and after. It is the same with California’s election ballots: All the ballots were cast by Election Day, the election is over, and we just must wait to learn the final results.
The issue of late-voting Democrats was especially pronounced in last week’s elections. In the Los Angeles mayoral race, polls show many voters undecided between unpopular incumbent Mayor Karen Bass, reality TV star Spencer Pratt (running to her right) and Los Angeles City Council member Nithya Raman (running to Bass’ left). Bass made it to the runoff, and the first vote totals showed Pratt in second. But late Monday, with 93% of the ballots counted the Associated Press projected that Raman will join Bass in this fall’s general election.
In the state’s gubernatorial primary, the initial results placed Republican Steve Hilton in first, ahead of Democrats Xavier Becerra and Tom Steyer. As more ballots were processed, Becerra moved into first late Friday. Hilton is still likely to finish in the top two and advance to the general election, but Steyer has not yet been ruled out given the number of outstanding ballots.
This “blue shift” would not be a problem if we lived in normal times. If we have to wait a week or two to find out which candidates will face Bass and Becerra, that’s plenty of time to prepare for November. Unfortunately, President Trump has incessantly fueled beliefs on the right that voter fraud is prevalent in Democratic states, and in particular that California’s slow vote count shows that the system is “crooked.” He did it again last week. It undermines voters’ confidence in our elections’ integrity for no good reason.
And he’s not alone. Speaker of the House Mike Johnson told reporters the “efforts are so diabolical and so far upstream it’s impossible to prove. But I think everybody knows instinctively that something is wrong here.” Yes, the alleged voter fraud claimed by Trump and his allies is always the perfect crime: happening on a massive scale yet impossible to detect. It’s quite convenient to have a theory that is completely unfalsifiable.
Some supporters of Pratt have made similar charges without evidence or simply “asked questions” about potential fraud. They only embarrass themselves by showing that either they don’t understand how California’s process works or they are cynical enough to think the public will accept false claims.
Even now, there is much to worry about regarding November’s elections.
If the race for control of the House of Representatives is close in November, the balance of power could well come down to races in California. Media reports on early returns will show Republican candidates “in the lead” but Democrats “gaining” as more votes are counted. Should that come to pass, I fully expect that Trump and his supporters will again cry fraud and try to delegitimize any Democratic victories and the integrity of the election process.
Even now, there is much to worry about regarding November’s elections. Trump’s U.S. attorney in Los Angeles, Bill Essayli, said he is investigating potential fraud in California’s primaries based upon no evidence. This follows the administration’s ongoing probes related to the 2020 election — efforts that could be a test run for the midterms.
The administration is trying to assemble a national citizen database and attempting to forbid the the U.S. Postal Service from returning mailed ballots from voters who are not on approved lists, a matter now being litigated in courts. Both federal law enforcement and cybersecurity officials have reportedly canceled efforts to help state and local election officials secure the 2026 elections.
But Trump has shown his hand and he’s come up short. It is hard to overstate the importance of the exchange on Sunday between Trump and NBC News’ “Meet the Press” anchor Kristen Welker. Speaking about California’s elections, Trump said“They’re crooked just like you’re crooked, your press is crooked. And ‘Meet the Press’ is crooked.” As Welker pushed him repeatedly for evidence, Trump could only repeat his entirely unsupported charges: “There’s tremendous evidence. There’s nothing but evidence.” In the end, he stormed out.
In the long term, California should still do what it can to speed up the vote count; that would help maintain confidence in elections. With enough resources thrown at the problem and commands from the Legislature, election officials can improve their ballot processing time. But serious progress is unlikely before November.
For this year, election officials, the media and even the public all play roles in assuring voters about the fairness and integrity of the process. California election officials have been quite transparent about their processes all along the way, and that should continue. Media outlets should stop reporting which candidate is “in the lead.” This is not an ongoing election; the election is over, and the results are simply “too early to call.”
In response to charges of “voter fraud,” ordinary people can share media, such as the two-minute exchange between Trump and Welkerwhich show the emptiness of the president’s claims.
Rumormongering about California was always likely to be central to the president’s attempts to weaken faith in this year’s elections. But thanks to Trump himself, anyone paying any attention knows that California’s vote count is notoriously slow, that the “blue shift” favoring Democrats routinely happens and that Trump has produced no evidence to support his claims. The boy has cried wolf too many times, and if he tries this again in November, the appropriate response should be repudiation, not panic.
Richard L. Hasen
Richard L. Hasen is professor at UCLA School of Law, where he directs its Safeguarding Democracy Project.
Los Angeles Council member Nithya Raman will advance to the November general election in the mayoral race to face the incumbent, Karen Bassafter overtaking ex-reality TV star Spencer Pratt in the primary, The Associated Press projects.
Raman has steadily trended upward in the vote count since Election Day, and she overtook Pratt on Sunday. Monday’s vote update gives Raman a cushion of more than 20,000 votes, making her position in the top two safe, with an estimated 93% of the vote counted.
The runoff between Raman, 44, and Bass, 72, is the latest example of a younger Democrat trying to oust an older incumbent. Raman, a Harvard- and MIT-educated member of the Democratic Socialists of America who has represented LA’s 4th City Council District since 2020, launched her surprise mayoral campaign in February — less than two weeks after she endorsed Bass’ campaign for re-election.
The runoff between Raman, 44, and Bass, 72, is the latest example of a younger Democrat trying to oust an older incumbent.
She campaigned on a pledge to bring change to the city, but struggled to deliver consistent messaging during debates, where she walked back some of her more left-wing policy stancesincluding support for defunding the police and opposing anti-camping zones for homeless people.
Bass previously represented LA in the California Assembly, including as speaker. She has served six terms in the U.S. House and entered the mayor’s race facing extensive criticism from Angelenos over both her handling of last year’s deadly LA wildfires — she was in Ghana when the blazes broke out — and her failure to achieve her goal of ending homelessness by the end of her first term.
She has pledged that, if re-elected, she will deliver on that goal. She has also vowed to continue standing up to the Trump administration, pointing to her confrontation with federal agents when the president deployed Immigration and Customs Enforcement to the city last year.
In a statement provided to MS NOW Monday night, Raman thanked her supporters and sought to cast herself as a change agent, pledging to “fight for a healthier, safer, more affordable, and more joyful Los Angeles.”
“For too long, City Hall has prioritized giving political advantage to powerful interests that fund elections. Meanwhile, working people pay the price in higher rents, depleted services, and a city that has stopped working for them,” Raman said. “If you’re as frustrated by the broken status quo as I am, I hope you’ll join our movement to build a city that works for everyone.”
Meanwhile, Bass campaign strategist Douglas Herman said in a statement to MS NOW Monday night: “A campaign against Nithya Raman, who allows encampments near schools and cuts the police force, is one Mayor Bass looks forward to winning.”
Pratt’s fast rise, social media savvy and massive online audience also seemed to make it more difficult for Raman to break through in the primary. He outraised both Bass and Raman since launching his campaign in January.
But some strategists predictedPratt’s backing by MAGA, and President Donald Trump himself, would ultimately help catapult Raman to second place in deep-blue LA.
Indeed, Pratt’s lead over Raman steadily narrowed since primary night as mail-in ballots came in — a fact that Trump and other MAGA allies baselessly alleged proved “fraud” in the race. On Tuesday, Pratt led Raman by 9 percentage points; by Sunday night, she had overtaken him by less than 1 percentage point.
Spokespeople for Pratt’s campaign did not immediately respond to MS NOW’s requests for comment after the results were called Monday night.
Julianne McShane is a breaking news reporter for MS NOW who also covers the politics of abortion and reproductive rights. You can send her tips from a non-work device on Signal at jmcshane.19 or follow her on X or Bluesky.
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