Politics
The clock is running out for SCOTUS to deliver the GOP a big 2026 redistricting win
Republicans want a big Supreme Court redistricting win. They’re losing hope it will help them in the 2026 midterms.
The Supreme Court’s decision in Louisiana v. Callais could weaken the Voting Rights Act and open the door to redrawing congressional maps, particularly across the South. Court watchers expect at least a partial win for conservatives that could let the GOP draw more seats for themselves by erasing Black- and Hispanic-majority districts.
But while that decision could theoretically come as soon as when the court returns on Friday, many experts think the case is more likely to be resolved with the flurry of decisions the court typically releases in late June.
The window of opportunity for new maps going into place before this November’s elections is rapidly closing, as states would need ample time to change deadlines, shift election calendars, vet signatures and print and distribute ballots. And the longer it takes for the Supreme Court to issue a ruling, the harder it will be for state-level Republicans to throw their maps out and draw new ones before this fall’s elections.
“It can get very complicated and very sticky, and that is not fast work,” said Tammy Patrick, the chief programs officer for The Election Center, a nonpartisan consulting firm that works with state and local election officials. “That is time-consuming, very methodical and detail-oriented work that needs to have sufficient time.”
Some state-level Republicans have already given up hope. Louisiana, the plaintiff in the Supreme Court case, will use its current map in its 2026 elections regardless of the Court’s decision, as the candidate qualifying period opens next month. Louisiana Republicans pushed back its 2026 primary election dates from April to May during a special session late last year, in hopes the Court would rule by the end of 2025 and give them time to install a new map. But the shift still wouldn’t be late enough for a late-term SCOTUS ruling.
At the center of the Supreme Court case is Section 2 of the VRA, a provision that broadly outlaws discrimination in elections on the basis of race and has led to the creation of majority-minority districts, where Black, Latino or Asian voters make up a majority of the population.
Republicans have long argued such districts violate the Constitution and benefit Democrats. Democrats warn that the elimination of seats drawn to satisfy Section 2 could decimate minority representation in Congress and allow lawmakers to redraw lines in such a way to eliminate as many as 19 Democrat-held, majority-minority districts, many in the South.
Democrats in Blue states could also take advantage of a Section 2 change and redraw, but the party’s options are more limited, both because of geographic limitations and pressure from civil rights and minority groups.
But even as many legal experts expect the court to rule in a way that weakens the VRA, the case’s prominence has led many watchers to predict an end of term ruling in June. At that point, many states across the country will have already held primary contests and there will be no room to undertake redistricting.
“If it’s in any way a big deal, we’re not going to get that decision before June,” said Justin Levitt, a professor of law at Loyola Law School who worked in the Biden White House as an adviser on democracy and voting rights. “It’s really hard for me to see a decision that does anything significant that wouldn’t occasion a major dissent, and it’s really hard for me to see that dissent not taking a fairly long time in the back-and-forth.”
Many southern states where Republicans stand the most to gain have early primaries — seven of the 11 states that belonged to the Confederacy have primaries scheduled before or on May 19 — making the timing even tougher for the GOP.
That doesn’t mean that lawmakers are done gerrymandering before the 2026 election.
At least three southern states — Florida, Kentucky and Virginia — are eyeing redistricting ahead of the 2026 midterms, and lawmakers seem emboldened to attempt it with or without a Supreme Court ruling. In Florida, state House Republicans hope to tackle the issue during the legislative session that started this month, while Gov. Ron DeSantis called a special session in late April, in an effort to wait as “long as feasible” for a Supreme Court decision. And in Kentucky, some Republican lawmakers are weighing a redraw, even though the map would likely be vetoed by Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear.
In Virginia, the Democratic-controlled legislature is considering a move independent of a Supreme Court decision that will put redistricting before voters akin to the move in California last year.
But other southern states reliant on a weakened VRA to redraw, like South Carolina and Alabama, may be out of luck. Republicans in the Palmetto State — including Rep. Ralph Norman, who is running for governor — are pushing the legislature to draw out the state’s lone Democrat, Rep. Jim Clyburn. But the state’s candidate filing deadline looms in late March.
Pushing back the filing deadline further in hopes for a Supreme Court decision would scramble the primary calendar and put elections officials in a bind.
“Anytime a state decides to redistrict, it creates a domino effect of administrative issues that need to be addressed,” said David Becker, the executive director and founder of the nonpartisan Center for Election Innovation & Research. “Election officials and voters are able to manage that when it’s once every 10 years. When it becomes once every two years, it might get very, very difficult for that to be managed.”
Utah got a taste of the challenge of shuffling deadlines late last year after a district judge installed a new congressional map in November. The state’s top election official, Republican Lt. Gov. Deidre Henderson, immediately announced her office would move forward with the new map, even as Republican lawmakers fumed and vowed to fight it. “There will likely be an emergency appeal,” she noted on X, “but the process of finalizing new boundary details will take weeks of meticulous work on the part of state and county officials.”
The state’s Republican-controlled legislature went forward with an appeal — which is unrelated to the VRA — after it pushed back the candidate filing deadline by two months for congressional hopefuls during a special session last month, offering itself a window for potential judicial action. Should the legislature — which meets for its scheduled session this month — again adjust the electoral calendar, it would send elections officials statewide into a scramble.
“The questions we would be asking are, you know, how much time do we have to program our ballot? What are the new dates? What would we communicate with voters?” said Nikila Venugopal, the Salt Lake County chief deputy clerk. “We haven’t heard any plans to do so at this point, and we’re moving forward with the assumption that the elections will be held as planned.”
Political campaigns and committees spent $740,330 on World Cup advertising during the first two U.S. matches, according to an analysis by AdImpact for Blue Light News.
An artificial intelligence regulation PAC and two political groups allied with Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) emerged among the top spenders on TV ads.
Jobs and Democracy PAC, led by former Reps. Chris Stewart (R-Utah) and Brad Carson (D-Okla.) and aimed at backing Republican and Democratic candidates “committed to defending the public interest against those who aim to buy their way out of sensible AI regulation,” spent $240,000 on ads during the U.S. match against Australia on June 19.
Stronger America, an issue advocacy 501(c)(4) organization aligned with Collins, spent $149,000 across the June 12 and June 19 U.S. matches. And Pine Tree Results PAC, also aligned with Collins, spent $76,000 across both matches.
Republicans view Maine’s Senate race, which pits Collins against Democrat Graham Platner, as “the linchpin” in “this year’s fight for control of the Senate,” they have told donors.
“The first U.S. World Cup game was the most watched soccer broadcast in American history,” a GOP operative working on the Maine Senate race, who was granted anonymity to speak candidly, previously told POLITICO. “Maine markets are performing better than national average and the critical Portland DMA has a significant soccer fan base.”
The American Israel Public Affairs Committee super PAC, United Democracy Project, was another big spender, dropping $58,150 during the first U.S. match.
House Majority Forward, the nonprofit aligned with House Democratic leadership, spent $13,450 during the first match. One Nation, the Senate GOP leadership-aligned group, spent $14,500 across both matches.
A collection of other senatorial and gubernatorial candidates also backed ads throughout the first matches. Businessman Perry Johnson, who is running for Michigan governor, spent $43,270.
“In a Michigan summer when people spend more time outside rather than watching regular programming, you have to go to where there are eyeballs,” John Yob, Johnson’s general consultant, told Blue Light News. “World Cup games have become opportunities for friends to gather and watch outdoor TVs on decks, at the lake, and at outdoor bars across the state.”
NEW YORK — As South Korea’s largest automobile manufacturer, Hyundai Motor Group is known for its cars. But now, as one of FIFA’s longest-running commercial partners, it’s using the World Cup stage to announce a new focus: robots.
That ambition is clearly laid out in the FIFA Museum presented by Hyundai in New York City. At the iconic 50 Rockefeller Plaza, a robot dog greets visitors at the entrance, nodding its head up and down and shaking its hind. Another humanoid robot, referred to as Atlas, strikes a pose by the door. Above that door, there’s a banner of Atlas rejoicing with its arms up. Inside the building, Atlas stands with a soccer ball in its hands — it’s a popular photo spot with children.
And once inside the elevator leading up to the exhibition hall, the closing doors reveal yet another picture of Atlas, merged into the iconic image of Diego Maradona hoisting the World Cup trophy in 1986. The robots, they are everywhere.
Aside from the museum, Hyundai has also released a five-part documentary on teaching Atlas to play soccer as part of its World Cup marketing. And to cement the role of its robots in the tournament, a number of its robot dogs have been deployed in stadiums to patrol the area for added security.
The incessant display of robots is meant to send a message: Hyundai is now a robotics company — and it wants the world to know. What better place to advertise that than the largest sporting event on the planet?
Hyundai’s robotics ambitions began in earnest in 2020, when the automaker agreed to acquire a controlling stake in Boston Dynamics, the company behind Atlas and the dog-like robot Spot. Since then, the company has increasingly positioned itself as more than a carmaker, describing robotics as a core pillar of its future and investing in robots that can automate factory work and assist with other industrial tasks. The World Cup campaign is the latest step in that bid.
The effort, of course, is not without controversy. Hyundai’s plan to stock its factories in South Korea with robots has met strong resistance from its union, which fears that the humanoid robots will one day replace factory workers. As talks to negotiate wages and the deployment of these robots has stalled, the union overwhelmingly voted Wednesday to authorize a strike. Industrial action from the union, which is considered one of the largest and most influential in South Korea, would be a blow for Hyundai and cost the company hundreds of millions of dollars.
That labor dispute is notable because it could land in the U.S. as well: Hyundai plans to deploy its Atlas humanoid robots in the U.S. by 2028, starting with the Hyundai Motor Group Metaplant America in Georgia, ultimately deploying more than 25,000 robots.
It’s why the PR push for Atlas during the World Cup is so crucial to Hyundai. Hyundai Motor Group is one of FIFA’s select group of global sponsors, ensuring that no other automakers can advertise at official World Cup locations worldwide. When Hyundai renewed its sponsorship contract with FIFA in 2023, it included Boston Dynamics to “showcase future mobility solutions,” as a press release put it at the time.
Within the FIFA Museum, visitors look at the robots with awe rather than the fear associated with job loss and an uncertain future. At a table dedicated to miniature Atlas figures recreating iconic goal celebration poses — Lionel Messi raising his fingers to the sky, Son Heung-min making a camera gesture, Cristiano Ronaldo throwing his arms down — people lean in to take pictures, widening their eyes at the display.
“Mobility and robotics turn every match into a glimpse of new talent, energy, and possibilities,” a nearby sign about Hyundai’s future reads — a promise of optimism that can only be bottled inside the World Cup bubble.
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