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Swing-district Republicans are questioning Mike Johnson’s budget

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Speaker Mike Johnson has cleared a major hurdle toward unlocking the massive, party-line bill he’s pursuing to enact President Donald Trump’s vast domestic agenda. Now he’s got more jumping to do.

On Thursday, as Republican hard-liners celebrated a concession they won from party leaders to force deeper spending cuts as part of the GOP’s sweeping policy push, centrists expressed deep alarm about the trajectory of the massive legislation that will include border security, energy, defense and tax provisions.

The emerging fault lines are many: GOP members in high-tax blue states are concerned that the plan doesn’t leave enough room to expand the state and local tax deduction. And Senate Republicans and some House hard-liners aren’t ready to give up on a competing two-bill plan.

But Johnson’s most immediate problem comes from swing-district Republicans who believe that the steep spending cuts Johnson wants across Medicaid, food assistance and other safety-net programs for low-income Americans could cost them their seats — and Johnson his razor-thin GOP majority.

“I don’t know where they’re going to get the cuts,” said Rep. David Valadao, who represents a heavily Democratic district in central California, as he left the Capitol on Thursday.

The House Budget Committee cleared the fiscal blueprint for the massive policy bill on a party-line vote late Thursday night, and Johnson intends to bring it to the floor when the House returns from recess later this month.

But with a two-vote majority, Johnson has virtually no room for error. And opposition from members like Valadao could force him and committee chairs to go back to the drawing board.

Low-key and soft-spoken, Valadao is the stylistic and ideological opposite of the fire-breathing hard-liners on Johnson’s right flank. His district in California’s Central Valley is one of the six Hispanic-majority GOP seats where more than 20 percent of households receive food aid benefits from the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, which is being targeted under the GOP budget for some $230 billion in spending cuts.

The House Budget Committee cleared the fiscal blueprint for the massive policy bill on a party-line vote late Thursday night, and Mike Johnson intends to bring it to the floor when the House returns from recess later this month.

“Obviously Medicaid and SNAP are ones that I’m very much watching,” Valadao said.

He believes he is speaking for a larger group of House Republicans who are worried about what the cuts will mean for their districts. Johnson’s own Louisiana district has a high rate of households that rely on food assistance, and hospital systems across the country rely on Medicaid revenue to stay in the black.

“There’s a lot of us, even leadership themselves, I think a lot of their districts are in the same boat as mine or close to it,” Valadao said.

The California Republican is also among the Republicans from high-tax blue states who worried the latest budget plan doesn’t provide enough room to sufficiently expand the SALT deduction, with more than a dozen votes at stake.

It’s also far from certain how the House GOP plan will play in the Senate, which has a long history of heavily editing tax plans sent across the Rotunda. There’s roughly 40 provisions that expire at the end of this year, and Trump has a slew of tax cuts he wants on top of that, with lawmakers in both chambers prepared to do battle over their favorite perks.

The concerns about Medicare cuts go just as deep, including inside the White House. Valadao referenced private conversations Trump had with GOP centrists on that subject last month. The president himself has been reticent to approve anything that could be perceived as a cut to health care given the collapse of his prior efforts in that realm back in 2017.

Valadao, referring to the major Medicaid reforms that would be required under the House GOP budget plan, said, “I think that goes against what he’s said and has been saying to members, both privately and publicly.”

House Energy and Commerce Chair Brett Guthrie (R-Ky.), whose committee is tasked with shouldering more than half of the proposed spending cuts, has acknowledged that some changes to Medicaid might not be able to pass the House. That includes so-called per-capita caps, a major cost-saver that would convert the program from an open-ended entitlement to a population-based grant to states. But conservatives say the White House has been open to some Medicaid reforms, and House GOP leaders have been in close contact with administration officials.

Trump’s top economic adviser, Kevin Hassett, attended reconciliation meetings with GOP leaders and rank-and-file Republicans in the speaker’s office this week, according to two people familiar with the conversations. House Republicans view Hassett as supportive of Johnson’s one-bill approach, sharing their concerns that a separate tax package wouldn’t clear the chamber.

Nebraska Republican Don Bacon also expressed uneasiness about the potential level of Medicaid cuts that could hit his district, which Kamala Harris won in the 2024 presidential election.

“Most of us support work requirements for able-bodied adults with no children, and we should make sure it’s not going to people who don’t qualify,” Bacon said.

“Beyond that, President Trump said he was reluctant to see cuts in Medicaid that will impact the most needy,” he added. “His gut instinct is right here.”

If that wasn’t enough, some on the hard right are still suggesting they want further changes to the budget framework before they support it on the House floor.

Rep. Andy Ogles (R-Tenn.) on Thursday said he wanted to pursue alterations to the plan over recess, including securing guarantees about “where the cuts are coming from” in specific committees. Asked if he thought GOP leaders were open to additional changes, Ogles replied, “They don’t have the votes, so I think they’re compelled to work with us.” He added that things were trending in “the right direction.”

GOP leaders’ decision to include a $4 trillion debt ceiling hike in the budget blueprint is adding a further complication. Lifting the federal borrowing limit is deeply controversial among Republicans, and several GOP members, including Reps. Tim Burchett of Tennessee and Thomas Massie of Kentucky, have never voted to do so.

Other ultraconservative members are finding reasons to be skeptical. Rep. Keith Self (R-Texas), a member of the House Freedom Caucus, said he doubted a key economic assumption budget writers used to claim that their plan wouldn’t add to the national debt.

GOP leaders assert that enacting the tax cuts and other measures in the bill will result in 2.6 percent average annual GDP growth— well above the current 1.8 percent projection of the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.

“That in and of itself is extremely optimistic,” Self said. “I was very concerned when I started hearing people saying, ‘Well, we can just grow our way out of this.’”

“We cannot,” he added.

Brian Faler and Ben Leonard contributed to this report.

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Congress

Khanna expresses disappointment about Massie’s defeat

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Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) expressed disappointment Sunday morning that Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) lost his primary last week.

Speaking on NBC’s “Meet the Press,” Khanna said of his reaction: “Sadness, disappointment. Thomas is a real friend. He’s a good man.”

Khanna and Massie are very much on opposite ends of the classic left-right ideological spectrum, but they came together to introduce the Epstein Files Transparency Act, requiring the release of files in the case of convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. They also joined together to attempt, unsuccessfully, to block U.S. involvement in Iran.

Those efforts, as well as other votes, led President Donald Trump to repeatedly denounce Massie and campaign on behalf of Ed Gallrein, Massie’s challenger in their Kentucky congressional district. Gallrein won the primary last week with approximately 55 percent of the vote.

Speaking to host Kristen Welker, Khanna offered his analysis of Massie’s defeat.

“He was taken out for two reasons,” Khanna said. “One: He had the courage to go after some very powerful people in working with me to get the Epstein Transparency Act passed. As you mentioned, that’s historic bipartisan legislation that finally got justice for the survivors. And he had people spend millions of dollars and had the president of the United States after him.

“And second, he worked with me to stop this war in Iran. So for taking on the Epstein class and taking on war, he basically lost his state. And I admire his courage in taking those positions.”

With talk this weekend of a possible deal with Iran, Khanna said it is time for the war to come to an end.

“The answer to your question is yes. I do believe we need a negotiated deal,” he told Welker.

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Absent congressmember Tom Kean Jr. starts working the phone

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Rep. Tom Kean Jr., whose two-and-a-half month disappearance has stoked speculation about his health and political future, has begun more actively communicating over the phone.

On Thursday, Kean began calling Republican county chairs in his 7th Congressional District, one of the most competitive in the country in this year’s midterms. The two-term Republican also gave a “lengthy” interview to New Jersey Globe on Thursday afternoon, the first he has granted since he last voted on March 5.

Kean did not respond to a text message from Blue Light News and his voicemail was full Thursday night.

But Kean, 57, gave no details to the Globe on his undisclosed illness, which has kept him out of public view since early March. He said he’s expecting to make a full recovery, that it would not affect his cognitive health, that he plans to run for reelection and that he will publicly discuss his health at an unspecified later date.

“My doctors are confident that I’m on the road to a full recovery,” Kean told New Jersey Globe. “I understand the need for public transparency, and I appreciate the support of my constituents.”

Kean added that he plans to return to voting and campaigning in the next couple weeks. Rep. Richard Hudson (R-N.C.), chair of the House GOP’s campaign arm, told reporters Thursday he spoke to Kean and he will be back voting in June.

Kean’s lengthy absence has drawn national media attention, with reporters staking out his home in the wealthy 7th Congressional District, where he faces an extremely competitive reelection, with four Democrats competing in the June 2 primary to take him on in November. His campaign and office staff had repeatedly said that he expects to make a full recovery and would return to work “soon.”

But few people — even Kean’s two fellow New Jersey House Republicans — had recently reported speaking to him. House Speaker Mike Johnson told reporters that he spoke to Kean last month.

Kean called Republican chairs in his district on Thursday.

“He sounded good to me. Sounded just as normal as always,” said Carlos Santos, the Republican chair of Union County, where Kean lives.

Santos said that he did not ask Kean about his ailment, and that Kean did not disclose it. But he said Kean confirmed he’s running for reelection and that he has his support.

Tracy DiFrancesco, the GOP chair of Somerset County, also spoke with Kean.

“It was just a simple conversation. He sounded just like Tom always sounds. He sounded perfectly fine. He’s basically back. Hopefully we’re going to see him very soon,” she said. “I think he’s doing well and we’re excited to get back on his campaign.”

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Tom Kean to return?

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Rep. Richard Hudson, chair of the House GOP’s campaign arm, told reporters Thursday he spoke to Rep. Tom Kean Jr. and he will be back voting in June.

Kean, a New Jersey Republican, has been missing from Capitol Hill since March 5 without explanation. Hudson, of North Carolina, said in an interview just a few days ago he hadn’t spoken to Kean in a while and only heard from Kean’s team that he could run for reelection.

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