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Stefanik’s withdrawal suggests Republicans are sweating their thin margins

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President Donald Trump’s decision to keep Rep. Elise Stefanik in Congress is the clearest sign yet that the political environment has become so challenging for Republicans that they don’t want to risk a special election even in safe, red seats.

A pair of April elections in deep-red swaths of Florida next week was supposed to improve the GOP’s cushion in the House and clear the path for Stefanik’s departure, until Trump said he didn’t “want to take a chance on anyone else running for Elise’s seat.”

The decision to pull Stefanik’s nomination came as Republicans grew increasingly anxious about the race to fill the seat of National Security Advisor Mike Waltz on April 1. Polling in the district, which Trump carried by 30 points, had tightened, and the president himself is hosting a tele-town hall there to try and bail out Republican Randy Fine.

An internal GOP poll from late March showed Democrat Josh Weil up 3 points over Fine, 44 to 41 percent, with 10 percent undecided, according to a person familiar with the poll and granted anonymity to discuss it. Tony Fabrizio, Trump’s pollster, conducted the survey. That result spooked Republicans and spurred them to redouble efforts to ensure a comfortable win in the district, according to two people familiar with internal conversations.

Some Republican strategists said it’s not worth taking the risk of losing Stefanik’s sprawling northern New York seat, which Trump won by 20 points in 2024.

“Can they defend her seat? Absolutely. But why do you do that right now?” asked Charlie Harper, who was a top aide to former Rep. Karen Handel on her successful 2017 bid in a special election in Georgia.

Harper is not the only Republican making that calculation.

“If we’re far underperforming in seats Trump won by 30 then there’s obvious concern about having to chance special elections in seats Trump won by a lot less,” said one top GOP operative granted anonymity to speak candidly. “The juice is not worth the squeeze sweating them out.”

Republicans insist they would prevail in any race for Stefanik’s seat. National Republican Congressional Committee spokesperson Maureen O’Toole said the party would “win this seat in a special election and we’ll win it in a general election.”

In an appearance on Fox News on Thursday evening, Stefanik said the withdrawal of her nomination was “about stepping up as a team, and I am doing that as a leader.”

“I look forward to continue serving in different ways,” she added.

In Florida, Weil, the Democratic candidate, has raised $10 million, which has led to Elon Musk’s America PAC putting forward some last-minute cash for Fine, as well as Florida CFO Jimmy Patronis.

But that hasn’t stopped Democrats from saying Republicans are panicking, not just playing it safe.

Zac McCrary, a Democratic pollster who was working for Blake Gendebien in the now-canceled special election in Stefanik’s seat, said “this is a Jamaal Bowman-style five alarm fire bell.”

“Again, you don’t have to take anyone’s word for it, just see how Republicans are acting,” McCrary said. “They were very blasé about opening up the seat and now on a full retreat.”

Democrats have been on a streak of success down ballot, narrowly winning a special election on Tuesday for state Senate in Lancaster County, Pennsylvania, in a district that Trump had won by 15 points in 2024. It included the more conservative parts of a county that only one Democratic presidential candidate, Lyndon Johnson in 1964, had won since the Civil War.

But any chance for Democrats to flip Stefanik’s seat would be an uphill battle. A poll in the district conducted last week, obtained by POLITICO, showed a Republican candidate up 16 points. Stefanik carried the district by 24 points in 2024 — a higher margin than Trump’s 20 point victory — and Republicans have 80,000 more registered voters than Democrats.

One veteran Republican consultant, granted anonymity to speak candidly, pointed to Republicans’ changing coalition of voters — many of whom Trump attracted — as a reason for recent struggles in special elections.

“Republicans have traditionally done well in off-year elections and special elections because our voter coalition is more traditionally engaged voters,” the consultant said. “And now we depend more on less engaged voters and we need our folks to turn out, and it is a good wake up call that we need to engage more.”

Brakkton Booker and Seb Starcevic contributed to this report.

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Congress

Republicans weigh selling public lands to pay for Trump agenda bill

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Congressional Republicans are mulling the sale of some public lands to help pay for a massive bill to enact President Donald Trump’s domestic agenda, according to lawmakers aware of the discussions.

House Natural Resources Chair Bruce Westerman said one concept under review would involve selling some lands around Western cities or national parks to build more housing.

“It would just be in areas where you can’t get affordable housing, like for gateway communities,” said Westerman in an interview, “so you could actually have people to work in the national parks, maybe around some big metropolitan areas in the West.”

It’s still far from guaranteed this will make it into a final package, however, with more than one GOP lawmaker saying it would be a nonstarter.

Montana Republican Sen. Steve Daines has already made his objections known to leaders, said an aide in a text message: “Senator Daines has never and will never support the sale of public lands.”

Another Montana Republican, Rep. Ryan Zinke — who served as Interior secretary in Trump’s first term — said he has also told House leadership public land sales are a red line for him.

“I have made clear: There are some things I won’t do,” he said. “I will never bend on the Constitution, and I won’t bend on selling our public lands.”

Democrats are also due to create a political headache for Republicans if the GOP pursues such proposals.

“If they succeed, Donald Trump and Elon Musk will sell off your right to access the places you know and love: The place you first learned to fish or harvested your first elk,” Senate Energy and Natural Resources ranking member Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.) said in a statement. “The campground your family goes to on long weekends. The trail you hike to clear your head. The site that was sacred to your ancestors and is now sacred to you.”

Republicans are talking about this idea at a time when lawmakers are scrambling to find big savings and revenue generators for the party-line bill they want to pass through reconciliation in the coming months.

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Johnson digs in against proxy voting, citing House’s ‘integrity’

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Speaker Mike Johnson is digging in against allowing proxy voting for the House’s new parents, heightening a standoff with members of his own party that has frozen legislative action in the chamber.

“While I understand the pure motivations of the few Republican proxy vote advocates, I simply cannot support the change they seek,” Johnson said in a Wednesday post on X.

The speaker is in a serious bind after suffering a stunning defeat over a procedural vote Tuesday, prompting him to send the House home until next Monday. Johnson’s initial effort to block a vote on a proxy-voting measure from Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.) failed after eight fellow Republicans joined her and every Democrat.

Luna was on the cusp of forcing a vote on her bill under a discharge petition, which can circumvent leadership’s control of the floor.

If Johnson attempts a similar move next week, Luna and several of her GOP allies insist they will vote against any effort to reopen the floor. The speaker’s leadership circle, meanwhile, says if he doesn’t try to kill Luna’s petition, House Freedom Caucus hard-liners who oppose proxy voting will themselves defeat any attempt to get House business moving as usual.

Johnson’s circle is aware of the optics of opposing accommodations for new mothers while also upholding their pro-life values and not risking electoral blowback ahead of the midterms.

“As the father of a large family, I know firsthand the difficulty and countless sacrifices that come with balancing family life and service in Congress,” Johnson wrote Wednesday. “New mothers and all young parents face real challenges in this regard. We truly empathize with them.”

But he said he had an obligation to “defend and uphold the Constitution and the integrity of this institution, which has stood the test of time for more than two centuries.”

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Former aide skewers California House Dem in primary launch

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Another House Democrat is getting an age-driven primary challenge.

Jake Rakov, a former staffer to Rep. Brad Sherman (D-Calif.), is launching a bid Wednesday to oust his one-time boss. Rakov, 37, is part of a string of Democrats waging intra-party battles against a long-time House incumbents by calling for a generational change in leadership.

Standing in front of a Los Angeles structure decimated by wildfire, Rakov used a 2.5-minute long launch video to blast Sherman, 70, as out of touch with his constituents and unwilling to mount a meaningful resistance against President Donald Trump’s “MAGA hellscape.”

“He and people like him, who have stayed on for so long, who don’t even check into the district anymore,” Rakov said in an interview with Blue Light News, “are why we have Trump twice, and why our party is so bad at fighting back against him now.”

First elected in 1996, Sherman is serving his 15th term in the House. His last truly competitive election was in 2012 when redistricting pitted him against then-Rep. Howard Berman in a race that turned so acrimonious that the two nearly came to blows during a debate. Sherman ended 2024 with $3.9 million in the bank.

Rakov served as Sherman’s deputy communications director in 2017. He is active in the LGBTQ+ community in the district and sat on the steering committee for Los Angeles’ Stonewall Democratic Club.

The district spans the western San Fernando Valley and includes Pacific Palisades, a part of Los Angeles devastated by the wildfires in January. Sherman was a regular presence at press briefings in the area as a series of major fires fueled by high winds and dry brush raced through the county. He also sparred with Trump during the president’s January visit to the disaster area, challenging the assertion that FEMA was doing a poor job.

But Rakov said Sherman’s response to the tragedy was lacking and that he did little besides “maybe tweeting out a 1-800 number.”

“If I were in office and our district had gone through what it’s gone through, I would be here every recess with my staff out at the Westside Pavilion rebuilding center,” Rakov said. “How can the federal government help? Who do you need us to talk to? He hasn’t done any of that.”

Rakov pledged to eschew corporate PAC money — he is married to Abe Rakov, who is the executive director of campaign-finance reform group End Citizens United — to serve no more than five terms in the House and to hold monthly in-person town halls, a practice he says Sherman avoids.

He said his challenge is motivated more by Sherman’s leadership style rather than ideological differences.

“We’re both progressive Democrats, and I’m sure we’ll find daylight on a few things here and there,” he said, “but I think this is much more about being a better member of Congress and actually doing what needs to be done in this moment in time.”

Sherman’s speeches on the House floor and lengthy social media videos don’t win the party new voters or “get any of our message out there,” Rakov said. Younger Democrats can better relate to Gen Z and millennial voters, he argued, and know how to reach them on new mediums.

California’s primary advances the top-two vote-getters regardless of party to a general election, so Rakov and Sherman could face off twice. Such a campaign would require significant resources. But Sherman, a senior member of the House Financial Services committee, has remained skeptical of cryptocurrencies, which he has called a “Ponzi scheme.” Pro-crypto super PACs spent heavily in the 2024 election and could see an opportunity to dethrone an opponent by spending against him.

Besides Rakov, two other younger progressives have launched prominent campaigns against older Democrats. YouTuber Kat Abughazaleh, 26, is challenging Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D-Ill.), and Saikat Chakrabarti, the 39-year-old former aide to Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), is primarying Nancy Pelosi. Both described their campaigns as an attempt to usher in a new cohort.

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