Politics
South Carolina’s early state status is far from secure. But 2028 Dems are going anyway.
PAWLEYS ISLAND, South Carolina — Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear drew a standing ovation from Georgetown County Democrats Thursday night, after he shook hands and grinned for photos. California Gov. Gavin Newsom packed standing-room-only crowds into a two-day rural county tour of the state last week. California Rep. Ro Khanna kicked off his multi-day swing Friday to promote his populist message to Black voters.
The 2028 Democratic primary calendar isn’t set yet, but presidential hopefuls are already making bets that South Carolina will hold a powerful role in the nomination process — even if it doesn’t keep its number-one spot. While Iowa and New Hampshire are drawing some big names, no other state has seen as much action as this small Southern state.
And while these top Democrats credited their appearances to local invitations — and in the case of Beshear, his son’s baseball tournament in Charleston — the 2028 implications are clear. Democratic hopefuls road-tested stump speeches and previewed their lines of attack against Republicans and President Donald Trump, all with an eye toward introducing themselves to a set of influential voters.
“I’m out there trying to be a common ground, common sense, get-things-done type of messenger for this Democratic Party,” Beshear told elected officials and party officials in Charleston Thursday morning. “Because I believe that with what we’re seeing coming out of Washington, D.C., the cruelty and the incompetence, that the path forward is right there in front of us.”
Christy Waddil, a 67-year-old Democratic voter who waited to shake Beshear’s hand Thursday night, said she was “excited” to meet all these potential contenders. But it’s a lot of responsibility to be the first state in the presidential primary calendar, she said: “We have our work cut out for us now.”
In June, Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly spoke at an anti-gun event in Charleston to mark the grim anniversary of the Emanuel AME shooting. In May, Govs. Wes Moore of Maryland and Tim Walz of Minnesota headlined a pair of state party events to rub elbows with Rep. Jim Clyburn, the longtime South Carolina kingmaker whose nod helped anoint Joe Biden as the party’s nominee in 2020.
“It’s not a surprise,” said Clyburn when asked about the state’s revolving door of 2028 hopefuls nearly three years before the actual presidential primary. “Why argue with success? If it ain’t broke, why fix it?”
South Carolina Democrats know their grip on the top spot is tenuous, with traditional early states like Iowa and New Hampshire eager to reclaim their lead-off position, and others —like North Carolina and Georgia — seeking to emerge as new states to consider. And it comes as there’s been a major reshuffling on a powerful panel at the Democratic National Committee that has huge sway over the presidential nominating process.
“None of what those supposed candidates are doing right now is going to have any bearing on what the Rules and Bylaws Committee ultimately does for the calendar,” said Maria Cardona, a longtime member of the powerful panel. “That may or may not include all of the states that are in the early calendar now.”
Democrats haven’t won the state in a general election since 1976, and President Donald Trump won it by 18 points last year.

It’s led more competitive neighbors to wonder whether they should get top billing instead.
“[National Democrats] have a lot of mobility to get power back at the federal level by investing early in North Carolina. And I think a lot of people will hear that message loud and clear, especially after we just got our asses kicked,”said state party chair Anderson Clayton, who is interested in usurping its neighbor to the south and angling for one of the open at-large slots on the RBC. “The future of the state of the Democratic Party also runs right through North Carolina too.”
Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker will deliver the keynote address at North Carolina’s state party unity dinner on July 26, and state party leaders are in talks with Sens. Kelly of Arizona and Cory Booker of New Jersey about visits to the state later this year.
But moving the order of primary states is easier said than done. North Carolina is hamstrung by state law from moving its date, and Democrats would need the GOP-controlled legislature to agree to any changes. DNC members have also emphasized smaller states to allow lesser-known candidates to build followings.
“The most powerful force in the universe is inertia, so South Carolina is probably the favorite to stay just because of that,” said an incoming member of the committee granted anonymity to discuss internal dynamics. “Every state has a chance to be first, but I do think we have to come into this with a degree of realism.”
The DNC is attempting to remain neutral.
“The DNC is committed to running a fair, transparent, and rigorous process for the 2028 primary calendar. All states will have an opportunity to participate,” Deputy Communications Director Abhi Rahman said in a statement.
Iowa Democrats are also gearing up on a bid to restore their caucuses to their traditional spot as the nation’s first presidential contest. Michigan replaced Iowa as the Midwestern early state in 2024.
Iowa Democratic Party Chair Rita Hart said she planned to have “tough and direct conversations” with the party in a statement, even as the DNC removed Iowa’s only representative, Scott Brennan, from the Rules and Bylaws Committee this year.
Already, potential 2028 candidates have traveled there, including former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, who held a town hall in Cedar Rapids in May. Walz stopped by the Hawkeye State in March, and former Japan Ambassador Rahm Emanuel and freshman Arizona Sen. Ruben Gallego are both slated to visit the state in the coming months.
New Hampshire Democrats also openly clashed with top DNC officials last cycle — and plan to stick with their state law making it first primary in the nation. Pritzker went to an influential state party dinner there in April.
“The potential candidates on the Democratic side and, to some extent, the Republican side are coming through New Hampshire,” Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) said in a brief interview.

The positioning at the national party over early states is already underway.
Party insiders are voting for the remaining open seats on the panel after DNC Chair Ken Martin named members to the governing body in recent weeks. Cardona said the goal of the committee is to ensure the strongest and most electable candidate emerges from what is expected to be a crowded field. Talks will begin on the next presidential primary calendar later this year, but will ramp up after the midterms.
South Carolina’s ascension was aimed at recognizing South Carolina’s significant Black electorate, long considered the backbone of the Democratic Party.
That’s partly why Khanna is there, he said in an interview on why he is focusing on reaching out to Black voters.
“I believe that’s critical for all the people who want to lead the Democratic Party, in whatever form, and to me it’s encouraging that people are going down to South Carolina” to reach them.
Beshear, too, expressed support for South Carolina’s representation, telling reporters that Democrats “need to make sure that the South is represented in the primary calendar” because “for too long, the investments haven’t been made in places like Kentucky and in places like South Carolina.”
In defense of remaining in the early window, South Carolina Democrats are playing up the state’s diverse electorate and inexpensive media markets that could allow for the best presidential candidates — not just the best fundraisers — to emerge in a wide open presidential cycle in 2028.
“The Democratic primary for president is not based on the state’s competitiveness in a general election,” said Parmley. “This is the same bullshit that loses us presidential elections, and we only play in eight competitive states.”
Lisa Kashinsky and Kelly Garrity contributed to this report.
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Politics
From Iran to Paris weather: Alleged prediction market violations start stacking up
Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi are quickly becoming an economic and political force, accruing multi-billion dollar valuations and drawing support from key officials in the Trump administration.
But backlash to the platforms is spreading — in Washington and in state capitals — with accusations of insider trading following White House military action in Venezuela and Iran and dogging several midterm election campaigns.
Fault lines over who is in charge of regulation are already emerging, with several frontline Democrats pushing to rein in the companies. In March, California Gov. Gavin Newsom signed an executive order barring appointed state officials from using insider information to place bets on prediction markets. Regulation discussions are ongoing in other states, including Arizona and Massachusetts.
Donald Trump Jr., the president’s son, meanwhile, is an adviser for both Kalshi and Polymarket. And both companies are spending big to win over the country’s political class, with Polymarket opening a pop-up bar on K Street, among other efforts. Both platforms did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Here are some of the most recent incidents that have piqued the anxiety of state and federal lawmakers.

The capture of Nicolás Maduro
Federal authorities on Thursday announced the arrest of a U.S. Army special forces soldier they accused of using confidential information to place more than a dozen bets on Polymarket tied to the January capture of Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro.
Gannon Ken Van Dyke, a 38-year-old soldier who helped plan the Caracas operation, spent roughly $33,000 on the bets, earning more than $400,000 in payouts, the Justice Department said. Authorities charged him with unlawfully using confidential government information for personal gain, among other alleged offenses.
The operation saw U.S. forces capture Maduro overnight in his bedroom, before flying the longtime Venezuelan leader to New York City to face narco-terrorism charges.
Van Dyke’s alleged actions took advantage of that mission, the government officials argue.
“Our men and women in uniform are trusted with classified information in order to accomplish their mission as safely and effectively as possible, and are prohibited from using this highly sensitive information for personal financial gain,” acting Attorney General Todd Blanche said in a statement Thursday. “Widespread access to prediction markets is a relatively new phenomenon, but federal laws protecting national security information fully apply.”

U.S.-Iran ceasefire
In the hours before President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire with Iran in early April, at least 50 newly created Polymarket accounts spent thousands betting on a temporary peace, according to an Associated Press report.
One account, created just 12 minutes before Trump’s Truth Social announcement, made $48,500 on a $31,908 bet that a ceasefire would occur. Another cashed out for a profit of $200,000, the AP reported.
Polymarket also took heat after the U.S.’s initial strikes on Iran, with “six suspected insiders” placing bets on the attacks just before they took place, according to Blockchain company Bubblemaps, taking home more than $1 million.
Israeli authorities, meanwhile, charged two people in February for using classified information to place bets about military operations on Polymarket, according to NPR.

Congressional bets
On Wednesday, Kalshi announced that it was suspending three 2026 congressional candidates from the platform for betting on their own races. Minnesota Democrat Matthew Klein, Texas Republican Ezekiel Enriquez and Virginia Senate candidate Mark Moran were each given five-year bans and faced fines or penalties ranging from roughly $500 to more than $6,000.
Klein, who is running to replace outgoing House lawmaker Angie Craig in Minnesota’s 2nd District, issued an apology on X.
“This was a mistake, and I apologize,” he wrote. “My experience, like many other Minnesotans, points to the need for clearer rules and regulations for these types of markets.”
Enriquez has not appeared to publicly comment on his wager or suspension.
Moran, a former “FBoy Island” contestant who is running a long-shot bid to challenge Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.) in Virginia, took a different tack, writing on X that he wanted to be caught.
“I traded $100 on myself, knowing this would happen (also knowing that I wouldn’t be vying for the democratic nomination) and the attention it would create to highlight how this company is destroying young men and as Senator I will go after Kalshi and impose significant penalties on them – 25% – a vice tax – to pay down our national debt,” he said.

Playing with Mother Nature
Several Polymarket traders made thousands of dollars in profits for accurately predicting sudden, anomalous spikes in the temperature at Paris’ Charles De Gaulle airport April 15, according to the Wall Street Journal.
Météo-France, the country’s weather service, is now investigating the incident, which could be tied to tampering.

MrBeast’s editor
In February, Kalshi reported Artem Kaptur, an editor for MrBeast, one of the world’s biggest influencers and most popular YouTube creators, to federal authorities for allegedly trading “on material, non-public information he obtained because of his employment” regarding the celebrity’s YouTube videos.
Kalshi suspended Kaptur from its platform for two years and imposed a financial penalty of more than $20,000. He was fired in March.
“Beast Industries has no tolerance for this behavior, whether by contestants or our own employees,” MrBeast’s company wroteat the time.
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