Congress
Republicans wanted to run against Mamdani. They’re running against Hochul instead.
NEW YORK — Not too long ago, Republicans were salivating at the thought of using New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani as a far-left boogeyman. Instead, moderate Gov. Kathy Hochul has emerged as the GOP’s go-to foil.
As Hochul runs for a second term, Republicans are hoping her middling popularity will be a drag on Democrats in competitive down-ballot races. Some Democratic candidates, meanwhile, are keeping her at arm’s length — a sign they recognize the downside of appearing with a governor often linked to Albany’s reputation for high taxes and lax criminal justice laws.
“There’s not a Democrat in the party in a swing district who wants to be near her,” said a state Democratic official, granted anonymity to speak candidly. “Her numbers aren’t as bad as four years ago, but they’re certainly not good.”
The current state of play is one neither party fully planned for. Mamdani, a 34-year-old democratic socialist who campaigned on freezing rents and taxing the rich, was supposed to be the Democrat who repelled suburban and upstate voters. Hochul has spent four years trying to be the Democrat who repels no one. Yet outside the city, the socialist is a curiosity and the governor a grievance.
After less than a year in office, Mamdani has amassed high favorability ratings in New York City and a positive perception nationally, while the suburbs ringing the city remain cooler on him. Hochul is being invoked far more broadly. Since casting Mamdani as a socialist neophyte carries less weight farther outside the city, Republicans have fixed their sights more squarely on her as the prime personification of the state’s leftward lurch.
New York, home to a handful of swing districts expected to determine control of the House, remains a high priority for both parties. And the top-of-ticket race between Hochul and Republican nominee Bruce Blakeman stands to impact voter turnout in races beyond their own.
“Outside of the New York City media market, Mamdani doesn’t have the same impact,” said Marc Molinaro, a former House lawmaker and ex-Trump administration official who’s now running for the state Assembly. “Most people further north just don’t have a relationship with the city. They may not love the city, they may not have an attachment to the city, but who do they see? They see the governor.”
On suburban Long Island, former state Assemblymember Mike LiPetri used his first television advertisement of the general election to decry “career politicians like Kathy Hochul and Tom Suozzi who sold us out and left us behind.” The opening screed in Rep. Nick LaLota’s TV spot is that “Kathy Hochul’s taxes are the worst in the nation.” And GOP candidate Anthony Constantino, running to succeed Rep. Elise Stefanik in a blood red upstate district, has accused his Democratic foe Blake Gendebien of being “beaten into submission” by the governor after he pulled a TV ad pledging to stand up to her.
In a statement, Hochul spokesperson Ryan Radulovacki said: “No amount of GOP spin changes the fact that New York Republicans gutted Medicaid, ripped food assistance from families and kids, and enabled Donald Trump, a historically unpopular president, as he tried to defund the NYPD and raised costs on everything from gas to groceries – while Governor Hochul put money back in New Yorkers’ pockets, passed free school meals, and stood up to Trump at every turn. Voters across this state see all of that, and they’re going to send Republicans a message in less than 50 days.”
Republicans are facing a tough midterm election with an unpopular president in the White House. They are trying to weather a political dynamic featuring widespread voter angst over costs, with high interest rates and spiking gas prices emerging as resonant plotlines in the Empire State. Losses in purplish and even red areas of New York would go a long way to costing Republicans the House.
Making Hochul the face of a Democratic Party framed around taxes and crime is meant to counter an otherwise bleak Republican environment and President Donald Trump’s unpopularity here.
But Democrats are casting doubt on how effective such messaging will be — especially compared to the GOP candidates’ association with Trump.
“I don’t think it’s anywhere near as potent as the president of the United States,” said consultant David Carlucci. “It is just a lash out as really one of the few options they have in terms of just playing the blame game.”
Meanwhile, Democrats are trying to thread a delicate needle as the governor seeks a second full term. Some are attempting to separate themselves from Hochul — a dance made all the more awkward as she marshals the resources of the New York Democratic Committee to aid down-ballot candidates.
In the North Country, Gendebien told supporters recently that Hochul is “unpopular” and “underwater” in the district he’s seeking to represent. According to a recording of a Sept. 3 town hall that was obtained by POLITICO, he also acknowledged that he didn’t know why.
Even in races where a high-profile surrogate could be a welcome boost to a relative unknown, the desire for the governor to stump isn’t necessarily strong. When asked if Hochul would be helpful on the trail for him, Mike DeCillis, a long shot Democrat challenging Rep. Nicole Malliotakis, replied: “Probably not.”
The district, a red-leaning seat that covers all of Staten Island and part of Brooklyn, is a “fickle pickle,” he said. “It’s not because of any specific policy. It’s the person they have been kind of trained and told that this is the person they shouldn’t like at all costs.”
Hochul’s zealous push for House Democrats — a years-long project launched after former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi blamed her weak showing in 2022 for losing down-ballot races — has further raised the stakes in a race that she’s largely expected to win. In 2022, she won by only 6 points.
“We’re going to be the state that sends Hakeem Jeffries to the speaker’s office,” Hochul said in an interview on NY1, highlighting her investment into the state party. She expressed confidence in flipping districts held by Rep. Mike Lawler, Lalota and Stefanik, and holding those represented by Suozzi and Reps. Laura Gillen, Josh Riley, Pat Ryan and John Mannion.
It’s unclear where exactly Hochul will stump for down-ballot candidates in the closing stretch of the election, though an aide said she will be supporting candidates up and down the ballot.
Republicans viewed Mamdani, of all people, to be their primary weapon in the suburbs and upstate, where voters tend to be moderate and more willing to back a Republican. But the mayor, who was viewed favorably by 69% of New York City voters in an August Siena Research Institute poll, has not been the beat-up toy many GOP candidates expected.
New York City mayors, who often bring left-leaning agendas into office, are typically viewed as easy targets for Republicans, especially in rural and suburban House districts. That strategy hasn’t always been effective, in part, because few voters outside the five boroughs consider the city’s mayor to be especially relevant.
“I’ve been asked many times, like, where does upstate and downstate start?” Republican state Sen. Peter Oberacker, who’s challenging Democratic Rep. Josh Riley, said in an interview last month. “You could almost determine where that line is by the concern about Mamdani. … In the more northern reaches of our district, it’s definitely a topic of discussion and concern. But as you come farther downstate, it gets a bit more intense.”
When asked whether the governor or mayor comes up more in discussions with voters, he said the former — and pointed to Hochul allocating $4 billion to help the city’s budget gap. “They feel this way that they’re not getting represented,” he said.
Riley doesn’t view Hochul as much of an issue. He touted her work tackling a dearth of affordable child care. “I’m eager to continue working on that with her,” he said in a statement.
In a state where Democrats hold all levers of power, Hochul is an obvious focal point for Republicans — the embodiment of a deep blue state’s policies on taxes, crime and regulations that drive up utility bills.
She’s tried to reverse that perception. She’s backed measures to scale back a controversial cashless bail law and touted middle-income tax cuts and rebate checks. And she’s embraced popular policies like expanding no-cost child care, banning cellphones in schools and a moratorium on data center construction.
But those policies are more popular than the governor herself.
The Siena survey found 49% of voters hold an unfavorable view of Hochul, with only 46% reporting a favorable opinion. Yet most voters back her efforts to curb Trump’s aggressive deportation campaign and New York’s data center construction pause, which Hochul rolled out this summer. The same poll found Hochul leading Blakeman by 10 points, with the largest chunk of her support coming from the city. She trailed Blakeman in the suburbs by 8 points, and they were nearly tied upstate.
Trump is even more unpopular with New York voters: Only 38% have a favorable view of him. He was slightly above water in the suburbs, but viewed unfavorably upstate and in NYC.
Despite those numbers, some Democratic candidates may not have much of a choice but to accept Hochul’s help.
The governor is using the state Democratic Committee this year to aid down-ballot candidates, opening field offices and providing political infrastructure to support those running in crucial races. This coordinated campaign is a stark departure from prior years when the state party functioned solely as an arm of the governor’s political operation.
The shift began in 2024 and is carrying over into this election year, as Democrats try to hold several seats on Long Island and in the Hudson Valley.
“She absolutely delivered in 2024 on this in a huge way,” said Rep. Pat Ryan, whose seat is not seen as competitive as it was two years ago. “She campaigned a bunch of times for me in that race and across the Hudson Valley and I dramatically outperformed in large part because of a lot of the things that she did. That’s only grown stronger now.”
New York Democrats must win without relying solely on Hochul’s coattails to carry them, though.
Distance themselves too far from the governor, and candidates run the risk of undermining the head of their party set on returning to Albany with a clear mandate for the next four years. Running too close with Hochul opens up swing seat candidates to Republican attacks that they’re the lackeys of a chief executive with so-so polling.
Ryan’s neighboring House member, Lawler, is viewed as one of the most vulnerable Republicans in the country. Earlier this year, he rallied with Trump — not the most popular figure in the district — and said he’d welcome Hochul to campaign for his Democratic opponent Cait Conley “any day of the week.”
In 2024, then-Vice President Kamala Harris narrowly carried the district, as Lawler won reelection.
With that past as prologue in mind, it remains unclear if Conley will appear with Hochul on the trail. But she’s bringing in other reinforcements. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, a potential 2028 presidential contender, campaigned with her in the district this week.
Conley has said outright that she does not want to campaign with Mamdani — a calculus that speaks to the independent-minded voters she needs to get on her side. Republicans have sought to tie them together in an attempt to portray her as too far to the left.
Lawler has repeatedly invoked both Mamdani and Hochul on the trail. At times, he’s trained more of his ire at the governor than his actual opponent.
“Their numbers are very similar in the district, and for different reasons and in different ways, they are equally as offensive to most voters in the district,” Lawler said of Hochul and Mamdani.
Still, Hochul’s allies believe it’s an error for Democratic candidates to disassociate themselves from the de facto head of the party. If she wins in November, she’ll continue to wield substantial power.
“I’ve never felt that running away from the head of your ticket is a winning strategy for any party in any year,” New York Democratic Party Chair Jay Jacobs said. “You make a mistake by distancing yourself from her where she can be helpful.”
NEW YORK — One of the most vulnerable Republicans in the House is running on immigration — and taking on both parties over it.
Rep. Mike Lawler is hammering Democrats over “sanctuary” policies while criticizing the Trump administration’s aggressive — and at times lethal — immigration enforcement tactics.
“Renee Good and Alex Pretti should not be dead. But neither should Sheridan Gorman, and neither should Laken Riley, and neither should the thousands of people who have been murdered by people who are in our country illegally and committing crimes,” Lawler said at a candidate forum earlier this month. “So yes, ICE needs reforms, but you know what? Sanctuary jurisdictions should not exist. Criminals should be deported.”
Lawler is betting his self-described “common sense” approach can win him a third term in a suburban Hudson Valley district Kamala Harris carried in 2024. His race against Democrat Cait Conley, an Army veteran and first-time candidate, could help determine control of the House.
Immigration has helped Republicans win elections, but broad dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump’s policies has made it a less certain advantage this year. Lawler is pressing it anyway.
He’s run paid media on the topic and held multiple events decrying Democrats’ immigration policies. In a recent interview with a panel of local reporters, he even brought it up himself: “We did not touch on immigration, and I want to raise this because this is a real problem,” he said.
“Fundamentally, when you look at the challenge, I think most people want common sense, not extremism, on the issue of immigration,” Lawler told reporters after a debate with Conley earlier this week.
Whether that emphasis matches voters’ priorities is another question. A recent Emerson College poll found immigration ranked far behind the economy and threats to democracy among the district’s most important issues. And Trump, whose approval ratings are abysmal in New York state, is often at the center of the immigration debate.
Lawler has been able to criticize Trump without drawing the backlash other Republicans have faced. He repeatedly highlights his fight with the president to raise the cap for the state and local tax deduction, which Trump ended up praising him for at a rally earlier this year.
Other Republicans who’ve sought to create distance with the president haven’t fared nearly as well. Rep. María Elvira Salazar is just one. Trump eviscerated the Florida Republican after she released a campaign ad challenging his immigration crackdown.
Yet even Lawler’s leverage with Trump has limits.
He’s highlighted his support for extending Temporary Protected Status, or TPS, for Haitians, thousands of whom live in his district. When the Trump administration announced it would be ending those protections for Haitians earlier this year, Lawler made his opposition known, warning it was not safe to send people back to the country.
He said he’s been working on individual cases to support Haitians in his district. Jean Bernard Charles, who lives in Rockland County, told Blue Light News that Lawler’s office was helpful in getting his wife to the country and he recommended his friends facing the same situation to go to the office for help.
Lawler also cosponsored legislation to extend TPS, which is stalled in the Senate. He argued that he’s fulfilled his role by passing a bill through the House and has blamed Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer for not moving it along. (In response, Schumer’s office said in a statement that the leader “moved to extend Haitian TPS on the Senate floor by unanimous consent and was blocked by Senate Republicans and President Trump, who Lawler constantly supports.”)
“I’ve explained this to the White House, repeatedly, that ending TPS was a stupid decision,” Lawler said at the forum. “I am opposed to it, and I will continue to fight back against it.”
The administration hasn’t budged, though. Community leaders in Rockland County, where the district’s Haitian community is based, say many immigrants are too scared to leave their homes. Some are growing frustrated that more isn’t being done.
“If there was the help, our folks would not be wearing ankle monitors,” said Nicole Hines, the NAACP’s mid-Hudson and Westchester regional director.
Renold Julien, the executive director of Konbit Neg Lakay, a Haitian community center in Lawler’s district, pointed to Lawler’s close relationship with Trump, including the president coming to the district earlier this year and Lawler appearing at a meeting at the White House with Jewish leaders, some of whom are from the district.
“I feel bad for Mike Lawler,” Julien said. “Friends don’t treat friends like that. … His friend Donald Trump is doing his best to create a problem between him and the dark-skinned immigrants here of Rockland.”
Conley has also questioned his work regarding Haitian TPS.
“He can have enough capital to get Donald Trump to fly out here and visit the district in May, to go to Dallas at Trump’s midterm convention and be a keynote speaker, but he can’t get Donald Trump to actually take care of people in the Hudson Valley and protect our Haitian community by extending TPS?” she asked.
When asked how she would advocate for Haitians if she wins — especially since she won’t have Trump’s ear like Lawler does — Conley said she thinks Democrats will win the Senate, clearing the way for the bill to extend TPS to get to the president’s desk.
Lawler has repeatedly bashed Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul’s recent law that ended cooperation between local police departments and Immigration and Customs Enforcement on civil immigration cases, and questioned why the state is not honoring the Department of Homeland Security’s detainer requests, as the agency has stated. The parents of Sheridan Gorman — a teenager from Lawler’s district who was killed earlier this year in Chicago, allegedly by a Venezuelan living in the U.S. illegally — have appeared on the trail with him a handful of times to criticize Democrats’ immigration policies.
“The sanctuary policies being pushed by Kathy Hochul and Democrats killed our daughter,” Jessica Gorman, Sheridan’s mother, said in an advertisement for Lawler. At an event last week, she accused Hochul and Conley of not caring about protecting families.
Hochul has waved off such criticisms, saying that law enforcement is still permitted to work with federal officials to remove violent criminals.
Even if immigration isn’t voters’ top concern, it’s a topic Lawler can own, said Sarah Chamberlain, the head of the Republican Main Street Partnership, of which Lawler is a member. The economy is a harder sell to frustrated voters, she added. Focusing on Hochul’s policy also taps into her middling popularity as she runs for reelection. Hochul’s opponent, Bruce Blakeman, has similarly been hammering the issue.
“He’s been extremely successful finding middle ground on it,” Chamberlain said of Lawler, praising his focus on deporting immigrants who have committed crimes and noting the district’s proximity to New York City. “He uniquely can do it because it’s very specific to his district and to where he lives. Some other members couldn’t be doing it the same way.”
Not everyone is convinced his approach will work.
“Mike Lawler is reading the tea leaves and realizing what we have been saying is true — that the vast majority of Americans across this country and in this state are against Donald Trump’s mass deportation agenda,” said Murad Awawdeh, president and CEO of NYIC Action, the political arm of the nonprofit New York Immigration Coalition. “While he may be doing a couple of vibes-oriented things to illustrate he’s not 100 percent MAGA and mass deportation, his actions actually speak louder than his words.”
Awawdeh said that even though Lawler has made some moves on Haitian TPS, that “doesn’t erase the horrors that he’s cosigned to date” in supporting increased funding for ICE. And while Lawler does back the Dignity Act — the bipartisan immigration reform bill that would create a vehicle for potentially millions of immigrants who entered the country unlawfully to gain work permits and remain in the U.S. legally — some immigrant advocates argue it doesn’t go far enough in creating a pathway to citizenship. The bill has yet to reach the House floor for a vote.
“Immigrant families are not props for his moderate image,” Awawdeh said.
When asked if he thinks his immigration message is getting muddled, Lawler said he has “never wavered in my position” and that most Americans “want the border secure, they want criminals deported and they want cashless bail gone.”
Lawler has sought to cast Conley as too weak on the border and crime, pointing to her support for revoking partnerships between local police and ICE, known as 287(g) agreements.
Conley told Blue Light News she’s in favor of getting rid of those agreements because she wants “our local cops to be focused on protecting our local communities, not doing the federal government’s job.” While she said former President Joe Biden messed up border security, she criticized ICE under Trump for “violence against American citizens” and not “prioritizing violent criminals.” She said she does not support cashless bail, which Lawler has repeatedly pointed to as a catalyst of crime, along with sanctuary policies.
Conley, though, has focused more of her energy on voters’ top concern this cycle: affordability. She said she hears concerns about paying bills and affording gas and health care more frequently on the trail, as opposed to immigration. She accused Lawler of using the issue as a “distraction” to “shift focus away from where he is failing our communities.”
Mike Madrid, a Republican political consultant, said it’s commendable that Lawler is finding balance on the issue but “the problem is no one’s making their voting decision based on this” and it “doesn’t cut through the headwinds on the economy.”
Lawler thinks voters are picking up on the nuance.
“I’ve been leading on this issue for years, saying that the immigration system needs to be reformed,” he told Blue Light News after a recent press conference slamming Hochul’s law. “These things are not in conflict. It’s recognizing how complex our immigration system is, but it’s also having common sense and applying it.”
The Senate could soon be in the market for a new internal cop. Nobody wants the job.
The top two lawmakers on the Senate Ethics Committee are poised to take over other panels next year, depending on the outcome of the midterms. Republican Sen. James Lankford of Oklahoma, the current chair, is in line to potentially lead the Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs, while the current senior Democrat, Sen. Chris Coons of Delaware, would chair the Foreign Relations Committee if his party flips the chamber.
Asked if he’d want to stay on as Ethics chair, Lankford laughed.
“No one asks to be on the Ethics Committee. No one — you can ask Chris Coons the same thing — no one asks to be on the Ethics Committee,” he said. “You’re asked to be on it and it’s a way of serving your conference.”
Coons was more diplomatic when asked if he wanted to serve on the panel again in any capacity, patting Lankford and himself on the back for their ability to “reach effective, swift, reasonable bipartisan resolutions to complex issues.”
“I enjoy the members of the committee,” he added.
Serving as chair of the Ethics Committee is an unenviable role — requiring lawmakers to lead investigations into allegations of misconduct against their coworkers and, in many cases, their friends.
There are also few rewards for the assignment: Unlike other committee leadership posts, sitting atop Ethics doesn’t provide a fundraising foothold or generate campaign ad-worthy headlines. It leaves little incentive for any lawmaker to take on the task.
“Nobody wants to be chair of the Ethics Committee. Period,” said Sen. Jim Risch of Idaho, the second-most-senior member of the panel who is also expected to continue leading Foreign Relations Republicans. “It’s very difficult when you have matters you have to deal with concerning your friends and colleagues.”
The third-ranking Ethics Committee Republican, Sen. Deb Fischer of Nebraska, noted she’s on tap to become Rules Committee chair next year.
As for whether she’d be willing to lead Ethics, too, she replied, “Deb Fischer is not going to do that.”
Unlike the House Ethics Committee, which has picked up the pace in recent months in holding members accountable, the Senate Ethics Committee has gone through long stretches of public inaction. It has issued just two public rebukes in the past decade: a letter of admonition to former Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) in 2018, and one to the late Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) in 2023. Aside from those instances, one would have to go all the way back to 2012 to find the next most recent public disciplinary action.
When Menendez was found by the panel to have improperly received gifts from a friend — then used his position of power to advance that person’s interests following a mistrial in his federal bribery case — the committee wrote him a letter of admonition requiring him to repay the gifts.
Menendez went on to be convicted in a subsequent federal corruption case on charges of bribery and acting as a foreign agent, resulting in an 11-year prison sentence.
The Senate Ethics Committee slapped Graham with an admonishment in 2023 for “impermissibly conducted campaign activity in a federal building.”
Neither Senate Majority Leader John Thune nor Minority Leader Chuck Schumer — who are both focused on the Nov. 3 midterms — have spoken publicly about who they might put atop the Ethics panel if they find themselves needing a new chair.
There are also some unknowns. For Lankford to take over Homeland Security, for instance, current Chair Rand Paul of Kentucky would need to first decide whether to decamp for the Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee, where Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy’s retirement will leave an opening.
Given the Ethics Committee’s distinction as a “select” panel, Senate leaders have more leeway over who they tap for a chair position, especially if they run into hurdles finding someone willing to take it.
It’s rare, but not unheard of, for a senator to lead both the Ethics Committee and a “standing” committee simultaneously. It’s happened on three occasions since the committee was given its name in 1977, according to data compiled by the Congressional Research Service and the Senate Historical Office.
That means Lankford or Coons could end up being asked to continue in their roles, even if they are also chairing another panel. If not, Senate leaders could struggle to find a replacement further down the committee rosterr, which would force them to bring in a senator not currently on the panel.
Democrats already need to recruit at least one new member to the panel: Sen. Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire is not returning for the next Congress, and Sen. Brian Schatz of Hawaii is expected to succeed outgoing Sen. Dick Durbin in the caucus’s No. 2 leadership spot.
As for Republicans, Risch said he’ll pass.
He burst into laughter and said he was confused why someone would ask if he wanted to serve as chair.
Sen. Bernie Moreno said Thursday he expects the Senate to move a party-line legislative package after the midterm elections — especially if Democrats flip one or both chambers.
“We will do a reconciliation bill — one way or the other we will,” the Ohio Republican told reporters at the Capitol, referring to the simple-majority budget process. “Obviously, if we lose control of Congress, it’ll be the Last Supper.”
Such a bill, he added, would be “giant” and would include “all the Republican priorities that we can get done.”
The House approved a framework for a party-line bill over the summer that includes war funding, farm aid and election integrity incentives. But the push has so far run aground in the Senate
Moreno said the threat of imminent Democratic control of either the House or Senate would jumpstart matters — and potentially push Republicans to include a debt-ceiling increase as well.
The borrowing limit is set to be reached sometime next year, and a Democratic majority could have significant leverage to demand concessions as part of any deal — something the GOP could forestall by acting in the lame-duck session.
“I mean, nobody wants to see a debt default,” Moreno said. “That would be 1929 on steroids.”
Rep. Rob Wittman (R-Va.) also told reporters on Capitol Hill that a new reconciliation bill “has to happen” after the election but warned against expanding the scope of the House framework.
“I think you have to go with the one that we’ve got,” he told reporters. “The Senate needs to act and get the job done.”
A senior member of the Armed Services Committee, Wittman said the legislation is “key to restock our weapons magazine” and “should be the main focus when [members] get back.”
Moreno said if Democrats win control of both chambers, Republicans should stay in session nonstop to pass GOP legislation — which could be a tall order given worries about poor post-election attendance.
“If we lose the House and the Senate, we should be here from Nov. 9 until Dec. 31 with no break at all,” Moreno said. “Like, we’ll have turkeys here for Thanksgiving because we have to get this done.”
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