Politics
Republicans push mail-in voting for the midterms in defiance of Trump
Republicans are making mail-in voting a core part of their midterm battle plans — a sharp contrast with President Donald Trump’s efforts to abolish the practice as they scramble to turn out his base.
In Wisconsin, the state party is preparing a full-court press of mailers, emails, phone banks, door knocks and digital ads to get voters to sign up for mail ballots.
In Michigan, the Monroe County GOP ran a social media campaign ahead of the fall election urging voters to utilize permanent absentee ballots and is planning an even bigger push next year.
In Pennsylvania, where Republicans poured $16 million into boosting the number of GOP voters using mail ballots in 2024, the state party chair called it “a priority” for 2026. The nonprofit Citizens Alliance, which aided efforts to get Republicans to return their mail ballots in Pennsylvania last year, is planning to knock 750,000 doors ahead of the midterms to encourage infrequent voters to embrace the practice.
And the Republican National Committee intends to build on the aggressive early mail and in-person voting campaign it ran successfully in 2024, after shying away from the practice in 2020, while also supporting election security efforts including stopping ballots from being counted after Election Day, according to a person granted anonymity to describe the committee’s plans.
“Democrats have built a pretty massive structural advantage in early voting for a long, long time. And we just can’t keep going into election night 100,000 votes down and expect to make it up in 12 hours,” Wisconsin GOP Chair Brian Schimming said in an interview. “Treating early voting as optional, or something Democrats do, is a losing gamble.”
Trump has long falsely decried mail voting as rife with fraud. Over the summer, he vowed that Republicans “are going to do everything possible [to] get rid of mail-in ballots.” In November, and again this week, he called on Senate Republicans to eliminate the filibuster and pass a law to ban mail-in voting.
But, as has been the case for several years, he and his party are out of sync.
Rattled by electoral losses across the country this year and fearing a turnout slump in 2026 when control of Congress is on the line, Republican party chairs and operatives in battleground states Trump flipped by razor-thin margins in 2024 are turning to mail-in voting to keep lower-propensity voters engaged when he’s not on the ballot. They’re redoubling the 2024 efforts they ran successfully despite Trump alternating between promoting and railing against the practice — a turnabout after his vilification of mail ballots contributed to GOP losses in 2020.
Now, back in office, Trump is escalating his war against mail ballots. He signed an executive order in March that attempted to bar states from counting ballots that arrive after Election Day, along with other election-system overhauls. Judges have blocked most of the order, and the Supreme Court is set to decide whether federal law prohibits states from counting late-arriving ballots postmarked by Election Day.
Despite pledging to “lead a movement” to eliminate “corrupt” voting by mail ahead of the midterms, Trump has yet to issue another executive order on it. State courts have upheld vote-by-mail programs expanded during the pandemic. And presidents have little authority over state-run elections, whose rules are guided by federal and state law rather than presidential decree.
State and local Republicans, seeing few paths to overturning mail voting programs, are forging ahead — swallowing their own misgivings about ballot security in an effort to cut into a Democratic advantage as early voting options turn Election Day into election season.
Pressed about their mission appearing antithetical to Trump’s rhetoric, Republican operatives uniformly insisted they’re simply trying to play by the rules they’ve been given and that they support the president trying to change them — even if they’re unsure he’ll succeed.
“In Michigan, that’s the law of the land unless we can find a U.S. constitutional override, which I doubt that’s going to happen,” said Jim Runestad, a state senator who chairs the Michigan Republican Party. So, he said, “we’ll be fully engaged in early and absentee voting — we have to be.”
Still, the renewed dispute between Trump and his party over mail-in voting is the latest evidence of cracks forming in the ordinarily unified Republican Party. GOP lawmakers throughout the country, from New Hampshire to Indiana, have been rebuffing the president’s push for an aggressive redistricting effort to shore up his party’s chances of keeping its slim House advantage next year. Democrats need to net just three seats in order to seize control over the lower chamber. And several members of Trump’s base, namely departing Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia, bucked him on the yet-to-be-released Jeffrey Epstein files.
The White House did not respond to a request for comment for this story.
Republicans have already shown some success in convincing their voters to embrace mail voting. In Pennsylvania — where now-Sen. Dave McCormick’s campaign, party committees and outside groups spent millions promoting the practice — GOP voters cast 32.4 percent of mail ballots in 2024, up from 23.7 percent four years earlier, helping Trump narrowly flip the state. Roughly one in five Republican voters who cast ballots in the state that year had not participated in any elections since 2020, suggesting the method worked for some low-propensity voters who the party has to work harder to turn out.
Nationally, roughly three in 10 ballots in the 2024 general election were cast by mail, according to a U.S. Election Assistance Commission report from June. That was down from 43 percent in 2020, at the pandemic’s peak, but higher than pre-Covid, according to the report.
“We have to encourage people to embrace mail-in voting and early voting,” Pennsylvania GOP Chair Greg Rothman said in an interview. “That has to be a priority for us in 2026.”
Rothman won’t be alone in that fight. Citizens Alliance, the nonprofit founded by Pennsylvania-based conservative activist Cliff Maloney that hired over 100 people to chase ballots across roughly 500,000 doors in 2024, is gearing up to knock 750,000 in 2026. The Republican State Leadership Committee, which helped fund mail-ballot programs in Pennsylvania last year, put more than $2 million behind turnout efforts in New Jersey and Virginia this year and said it’s “doubling down” on the program in 2026.
“Without Trump on the ballot, the low-propensity problem is an epidemic” and “Republicans have to adapt or die,” Maloney said. “The blessing here is that there’s a solution — and the solution is to actually put dollars, cents, time and energy into the same tactics that the left uses to target low-propensity voters.”
State and county parties in Wisconsin and Michigan are planning similarly aggressive efforts, though they, like other Republican officials interviewed for this story, declined to share details or put price tags on strategies still taking shape. In Michigan, where voters can sign up for a permanent mail ballot list, Monroe County GOP Chair Todd Gillman sees it as a way to get more people engaged in more under-the-radar local elections.
But even as they try to make inroads with mail voting, Republicans in other states are attempting to follow Trump in restricting the practice. Ohio’s GOP-controlled Legislature last month passed a bill that would invalidate nearly all ballots received after Election Day that were postmarked prior to the deadline. The state’s Republican governor, Mike DeWine, is now weighing whether to sign it. Utah GOP Gov. Spencer Cox signed a similar bill earlier this year. Republican-led Kansas Legislature overrode Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly’s veto of another bill eliminating the grace period, which is being challenged in court.
And Republicans pushing mail-in voting remain somewhat hamstrung by their standard bearer’s scaremongering, which has sown a deep distrust among GOP voters that party officials and activists say they’re still working to reverse.
Trump made baseless claims of mail-voting fraud the basis for his constellation of stolen-election conspiracy theories in 2020. He piled on in 2024, suggesting scores of Pennsylvania ballots were fraudulent and accusing postal workers of “purposefully” losing some mail ballots — even as his campaign, the RNC and GOP-aligned groups prioritized early voting initiatives. Last month, as Californians voted to approve mid-decade redistricting in response to a GOP-led redraw in Texas, Trump threatened legal action that never materialized over ballots cast by mail in a state that sends one to every voter.
GOP operatives have a script for that, insisting to wary Republicans that they’ve made voting by mail more secure and informing them of the various options they have to ensure their ballots reach election offices, including hand delivery.
“We don’t necessarily like early voting or absentee ballots,” Gillman said. “But those are the rules we have to play by.”
Jessica Piper contributed to this report.
Battleground Republicans across the country are on defense as ICE operations keep finding their way into local headlines.
A flurry of ICE activity in four rural Kansas towns this week prompted businesses to shutter and public schools to urge families to identify who could pick up children from schools in case their parents were detained. Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kansas) — a normally staunch MAGA defender who finds himself in a tougher-than-expected election — took to social media to say he was “closely following” the situation, signaled his displeasure that ICE wasn’t working more closely with local law enforcement, and said he had phoned Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin.
Later, he complained that ICE’s failure to communicate with local law enforcement caused “mass disruptions to local communities and businesses.”
“We must keep our communities safe, but it has to be done in a responsible and secure manner,” he said in a statement Thursday evening.
Mullin took over DHS in March with a mandate to keep immigration enforcement out of the news following a public outcry over the killing of two Americans by immigration agents during enforcement operations in Minneapolis. No subsequent incidents have generated the same type of national attention — but ICE’s recent record-high arrest rate is still landing hard in some communities.
“It does cause quite a disruption in the community,” said Scott Fischer, the GOP chair in Ford County, one of the counties where ICE activity was reported this week. “We don’t want our community disrupted.”
In Florida, local officials are warning about the impact of ICE raids on businesses, and a Republican incumbent is on air with a Spanish-language ad denouncing Trump’s crackdown. In Michigan, Democrats are calling for an investigation after a man crashed his car and died while fleeing ICE. In Maine, the fallout from a fatal ICE shooting of a 25-year-old from Colombia continues to loom over GOP Sen. Susan Collins’ reelection race. In Texas, last week’s nonfatal shooting of a Venezuelan in Austin is just the latest of several highly publicized ICE operations that have fueled wall-to-wall media coverage.
“There’s already been some blowback associated with what people feel is a little bit of a heavy hand when it comes to immigration enforcement,” said Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas). “Obviously, border security is critical, but I think the administration maybe has miscalculated a little bit. … It is going to be one of the factors people are weighing in the election.”
The Department of Homeland Security said in a statement that the department “is focused on delivering the most HISTORIC mass deportation campaign in American history—exactly as President Trump promised.”“The men and women of ICE are enforcing the laws passed by Congress. We do not pick and choose which laws to enforce or where to enforce them,” the statement continued. “We will continue to enforce our nation’s laws and remove illegal aliens from American communities. Under President Trump and Secretary Mullin, if you break the law, you will face the consequences. Illegal aliens are not welcome in the U.S.”
The Trump administration’s deportation spree is not widely popular. A new Blue Light News Poll finds that a plurality of U.S. adults, 49%, think the mass deportations campaign is “too aggressive,” while 26% find it “about right” and just 14% think it is “not aggressive enough.” And in an election cycle where cost of living is atop voters’ list of concerns, ICE enforcement has become an economic issue too: Immigration raids are affecting workers, from construction sites in Texas to meatpacking plants in Kansas, frustrating business leaders.
In Kansas, where Democrats aim to win a U.S. Senate seat for the first time in nearly a century, ICE’s activity this week has provided another political opening.
“This is not how Washington should be treating Kansans,” Adam Hamilton, the Democratic nominee for Senate, said on social media Wednesday.
“It impacts these operations economically,” said Matt Teagarden, CEO of the Kansas Livestock Association, whose organization released a joint statement Thursday noting the “massive chilling effect” of ICE enforcement on “the legal, documented, skilled workers that put beef on the table and keep the cattle supply chain moving.”
“We’re all for getting the bad actors out of our communities,” Teagarden said. “The method by which they do that has an impact. We’ve seen it.”
Mullin said in a statement Friday that “ICE is not conducting worksite operations in Kansas” but “operations targeting heinous criminals including murderers, rapists, and drug traffickers and illegal aliens with final orders of removal.”
Some of Marshall’s allies downplayed the possibility that the immigration activity could have political ramifications.
“Senator Marshall has nothing to do with when ICE decides to do a surge, and I think most people understand that,” said Danedri Herbert, chair of the Kansas Republican Party.
But others winced at the way ICE conducted itself, even those who say enforcement is necessary to remove criminals.
“I’d sure ask that we go back to some of the concepts of working with local law enforcement who actually know the area better, and I think that might have improved things tremendously,” said Kansas State Rep. Jim Minnix, a Republican who represents Scott County, where some of the ICE activity occurred.
Texas has become the epicenter of ICE activity: One in five ICE arrests nationwide this year has occurred in the Lone Star State. Sunday’s Austin shooting came on the heels of a fatal ICE shooting in July. In South Texas, local news is consumed with a story of two teenagers who were stopped by ICE agents en route to a military recruiter’s office, one of whom was beaten on the side of the road. After17-year-old Luis Ochoa spoke out to say he was pepper sprayed and detained, his mother was quickly deported.
Bobby Pulido, the Democrat running in Texas’ 15th District, said his campaign has received more than 80 requests from South Texans asking for immigration help. The campaign passes those requests to pro bono attorneys, he said.
“Every single day we’re having people reach out. And it’s very frustrating, because we can’t help everybody,” Pulido said. “I’m not a congressman.”
His opponent, GOP Rep. Monica De La Cruz, has attempted to separate herself from the administration’s immigration crackdown: She hit the airwaves with an ad this month featuring a woman touting De La Cruz’s work getting her husband, who had legal status, released from immigration custody.
“I have been very direct with the White House, with leadership, that enforcement policy should be focused on the criminals and on the cartels that are terrorizing our communities,” De La Cruz said during an appearance on a conservative radio show Thursday. “They should not be on hardworking immigrants that are navigating the immigration process.”
Maine Democrat Troy Jackson has made Duran Guerrero’s death a key focus of his Senate campaign, hosting a town hall in the city where he was killed earlier this month and frequently criticizing Collins for voting to fund the Homeland Security Department. In response, Collins has emphasized she supports guardrails for ICE officers like body cameras and deescalation training.
In South Florida, public pressure is growing this week against policing partnerships with ICE as businesses report a dropoff in sales. GOP Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar released an ad — in both English and Spanish — that criticized the Trump administration for going “too far” on immigration. In the ad, she claims that half of the people detained in July “had no criminal record” and says Hispanics who backed Trump in 2024 feel “betrayed.”
Liliam López, president of the South Florida Hispanic Chamber of Commerce and the U.S. Hispanic Women’s Chamber of Commerce, said that her communities “are really, really hurting” from the ICE crackdown.
“All elected officials of the Republican Party that think that their constituents are being affected in an adverse manner should speak up, like Congresswoman Salazar did,” she said. “You can’t do what this administration is doing because it doesn’t work. It just doesn’t work.”
The concerns from vulnerable Republicans come as Mullin seeks to balance pressure from immigration hardliners with public backlash. When he took over the department in the spring, the administration moved to make its arrests of unauthorized immigrants more discreet, but the dip in visible deportation operations — coupled with messaging missteps wherein Mullin seemed to indicate an openness to some legal pathways for would-be immigrants — prompted considerable pushback from some of the loudest anti-immigration voices in Trump’s coalition.
DHS then recalibrated its messaging to highlight increased deportations and project continued operational toughness, in an effort to shore up support from that section of the president’s base.
The reported lack of body camera footage in the Austin shooting in particular has frustrated even some of Mullin’s defenders, given consistent pledges from DHS that the technology would be deployed and operational by the end of September.
“If the public report is accurate, that’s unacceptable,” Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) said. “Markwayne needs to pull these folks in and say, every piece of equipment you have, whether it’s a camera, a handgun or a mace canister, you show up to work with it every day or you’re failing to do your job.”
Voters’ concern seems to be building again with the election looming.
“Obviously for Hispanics, but I think just all voters in general right now, their main issue is overreach. They feel that there’s been abuse of power from everywhere,” said Sofia Kinzinger, a former DHS deputy assistant secretary during the president’s first term, and the wife of Trump-critical former Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.). “Either you speak firmly against it, or you try to justify, which right now is the opposite of what people need.”
Jessica Piper contributed reporting.
Not everyone thinks there’s an affordability crisis.
While many Americans say the cost of living is the top issue facing the U.S. more than any other, President Donald Trump’s MAGA base does not always agree, according to a new analysis of The POLITICO Poll. Just 28 percent of voters who self-identify as part of the MAGA movement say expenses have become less affordable since Trump took office.
In fact, MAGA voters are more likely to say things have gotten better rather than worse.
That’s a stark break from the rest of the country, including the voters who backed Kamala Harris in 2024 and those who voted for Trump but do not identify as part of the MAGA movement.
The Blue Light News Poll results reveal a complicated challenge for Republicans: In an election all about the economy, cost of living concerns are reinforcing partisanship divides — entrenching Democrats’ opposition to Trump — while also driving a wedge among Republicans’ own base. Now, GOP candidates are facing frustrated voters from all sides.
Harris voters are far more likely than Trump voters to say groceries, gas and other expenses have gotten more expensive since the president took office, despite facing similar increases in household costs, according to a Blue Light News analysis of cost of living data.
Democrats hope to ride that frustration to victory in November, and have made affordability their top messaging issue this fall. They’re poised to benefit from the backlash to Trump’s economic agenda — from his unpopular tariffs to an Iran war that’s raised gas prices — which politicians and strategists widely agree are helping motivate Democratic voters.
“Those Democrats are definitely going to go vote,” said Michigan-based GOP strategist Jason Roe. “And we’ve got some voters that are a little harder to get to the polls, and when they are mad, frustrated, disappointed, disillusioned, in disagreement, and we don’t have them motivated, that’s going to be a problem.”
Many of those disillusioned Trump voters, The Blue Light News Poll suggests, are the ones who don’t identify as part of the MAGA base.
Consider the 52% of non-MAGA Trump voters who say the cost of living in their area is the “worst” it has ever been: Nearly half say they either wouldn’t vote for a Republican in the midterms or are still making up their minds.
But what is a boon to Democrats today could be a problem for them later. Partisanship also shapes how Americans remember the economy in years past, the poll results show.
Harris voters have a more favorable memory toward Democratic presidents and Trump voters have a more favorable memory toward Republican presidents, each saying life was more affordable when their party held the reins.
Democrats and Republicans simply don’t share an understanding of the economic reality — and without a common frame for the past, nor whether things are improving in the present, any party in power stands to lose its grip against an increasingly frustrated opposition when the economy is the key issue.
This year, that will be a major challenge for Republicans.
MAGA vs. Non-MAGA vs. Democrats
The Blue Light News Poll asked adults across America last month about affordability in their area, including about local prices and their memory of when prices were more affordable in the past.
Across the board, Harris voters outpaced Trump voters in their pessimism about the economy. And among Trump voters, non-MAGA voters outpaced their MAGA counterparts.
For example, 70% of Harris voters and 52% of non-MAGA Trump voters say the cost of living is worse than they can “ever remember it being.” MAGA Trump voters disagreed — a 43% plurality said the cost of living today is bad, but they could “remember times when it was worse.”
The results are a warning sign about the Trump coalition: In question after question, the president’s most loyal base is still sticking with him, but among the non-MAGA voters he convinced to back him in 2024, their frustration more closely resembles how Harris voters feel.
“There will be voters who voted for Donald Trump in 2024 who know he’s made life more expensive and won’t vote for his party this time,” said longtime Democratic strategist Jesse Ferguson. “Some will vote for a Democrat, some won’t vote. But they won’t cast a ballot for a Republican who they blame for the high cost of living.”
Of the non-MAGA Trump voters who say the cost of living is the worst they’ve seen, just 53% say they would vote for a Republican if the midterms were held tomorrow. More than 25% would vote for a Democrat or third-party candidate. The rest say they would stay home or have not yet made up their minds.
Changes to family budgets are similar on average among those that voted for Trump and those who voted for Harris, according to a Blue Light News analysis of data from the Living Wage Institute, a nonpartisan public benefit corporation that produces cost of living data. Across the country, family budgets have increased by 2.5 percent on average from early 2025 to early 2026, according to the Living Wage Institute.
But it is the concept of who is to blame that creates division among each voting bloc. Though each group is concerned about affordability — the cost of living is the most common concern for each — only MAGA Trump voters remain sympathetic to the current administration.
Young voters — and young men in particular — have also grown disillusioned with the Trump administration amid cost of living concerns, a warning sign for the GOP. Among those under the age of 25 who say the cost of living is the worst it’s ever been, 56% say they trust Democrats to bring down the costs. Just 20% trust Republicans to do the same.
“Young people feel like the system isn’t working for them,” said Joe Mitchell, a Republican running for Iowa’s open and competitive 2nd District. Mitchell, who is 29, would be the second Gen Z member to join the House if elected. “You see them being attracted to some of these DSA candidates like Zohran Mamdani. And they’re going to be attracted to these candidates if we don’t figure something out for them now.”
Partisanship even drives memory
Partisanship also colors how Americans see the past, making it difficult for any incumbent party to convince voters of plans for the future.
The Blue Light News Poll asked respondents whether it was easier or harder to afford everyday items in years past compared to today in one of two ways: In one, they were asked about a specific calendar year, and in another, the presidential administration in power at the time.
For each question framed around a calendar year, Trump and Harris voters gave similar answers. But when asked to compare how easy or hard it was to afford things during a particular presidential administration compared to today, their answers split along party lines.
For example, just over a third of both Harris and Trump voters said it was “easier” to afford everyday items in 2024 compared to today. But when asked the same question about the “end of [former President] Joe Biden’s term,” 55% of Harris voters said everyday items were easier to afford, compared to 39% of Trump voters.
The results show that Americans lack a common frame of reference on the issue most people care about — the cost of living — creating a massive hurdle for politicians hoping to win over new voters who may not be willing to listen.
The same effect happens among Trump voters looking back on a Democratic administration. When asked about costs in 2010 compared to today, 63% of Trump voters said everyday items were easier to afford then compared to now. But when asked about costs during the “middle” of former President Barack Obama’s first term — or 2010 — only 36% of Trump voters said the same.
It’s only when a political party is attached that Americans’ version of the truth changes.
When Blue Light News asked whether it was easier or harder to afford everyday items “just before the Covid-19 pandemic” or in “2019,” majorities from both parties said things were easier to afford then, and in both framings.
The challenge for both parties is that voters don’t know “who has a better plan for the future,” GOP communications strategist Kevin Madden said. “Instead, what you’re seeing is a gap — or a canyon — emerge between the rest of the country and Washington.”
He added: “When you see that gap emerge, watch out if you’re an incumbent.”
Alisa Vasquez and Andrew Howard contributed to this report.
President Donald Trump is hitting the campaign trail — and a series of his stops are in deep-red states he comfortably won in 2024.
Trump will campaign in Iowa, Florida, Texas and Alaska ahead of Election Day, according to two people with knowledge of the matter, who were granted anonymity to discuss not-yet-public plans. That’s on top of his scheduled stop in Oklahoma next week, as the RNC announced, and his visit to Alabama, which POLITICO first reported.
While the president has indicated a desire to stump for Ken Paxton in Texas and Dan Sullivan in Alaska, the addition of Iowa and Florida to his campaign schedule signals an expanded focus on red states as Republicans grow increasingly nervous heading into the final stretch of the midterms.
The president is also preparing to hold campaign rallies in more traditional battleground states starting Oct. 3, according to one of the people.
His travel schedule is a clear signal that the GOP is seeking to shore up their own territory — as rising voter anger over sky-high costs and mass deportations creates new openings for Democrats. The six confirmed states have highly watched Senate, House and gubernatorial contests this November, but they are also ones Trump won by double digits two years ago.
“While Democrats squabble over the last two cents their party has to spare, the president is barnstorming the country, energizing our base, and supercharging Republican candidates in key races and beyond,” said Natalie Baldassarre, an RNC spokesperson.
“We have the resources to spend, and Republicans are full steam ahead to protect and expand our majorities,” Baldassarre added.
The White House referred Blue Light News to the RNC.
Vice President JD Vance will also ramp up his campaign travel ahead of Election Day. He and Trump are expected to make stops in Ohio to boost GOP Sen. Jon Husted, as POLITICO has reported. Husted is trailing former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown in internal GOP polling by top Senate Republicans, according to two other people with direct knowledge of the matter, granted anonymity to share private details.
Trump’s latest midterms travel swing will first start with Oklahoma and Alabama — two deep-red states where Democrats haven’t made the same inroads in statewide elections as they have in other traditionally conservative states like Texas, Alaska and Kansas.
But his Alabama event could help drive turnout and shore up support for GOP state Rep. Rhett Marques, who is in a competitive race with Democratic Rep. Shomari Figures in the state’s 2nd District, despite Republicans’ effort to redraw the seat in their favor.
Republicans in Iowa, Texas and Alaska are growing increasingly alarmed about how close their Senate races are amid fallout from the Iran war and other policy moves by Trump. Florida Republicans have become uneasy about their own firewall, with some polling showing statewide races inside the margin of error.
Rep. Ashley Hinson, the GOP Senate nominee in Iowa, recently publicly broke with Trump over the Iran war, as did several other Iowa House Republicans.
“The bigger question on everything continues to be, whatever you do, will there be enough time. I just don’t know,” said one person close to the White House. “We’re teetering on the edge of it doesn’t matter anymore.”
Alec Hernández contributed to this report.
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