Congress
Republicans just cut Medicaid. Will it cost them control of Congress?
Republicans just delivered Donald Trump a “big, beautiful” legislative win. Now they’re fretting it will lead to some ugly electoral losses.
GOP lawmakers are warning that slashing spending on Medicaid and food assistance will cost the party seats in the midterms — threatening their razor-thin House majority — by kicking millions of Americans off safety-net programs.
“You would be foolish not to worry about it,” Sen. Jim Justice (R-W.Va.) said in a brief interview. “If you don’t keep the voters right with you, you’re going to awaken to a bad, bad, bad day.”
Justice voted for the megabill last week, despite his concerns over some of its Medicaid provisions — and after warning Republicans “cannot cut into the bone.” Steep cuts, he said, would cost the GOP voters and lead the party to “awaken to [being in the] minority.”
Republicans have already lost one of their most vulnerable senators over the bill: North Carolina’s Thom Tillis, who privately told his colleagues he would lose his seat over Medicaid cuts before announcing his retirement and publicly torching the public-health overhaul on the Senate floor. Another vulnerable GOP senator, Susan Collins of Maine, opposed it over the “harmful impact” Medicaid cuts would have on low-income families and rural health care providers.
“When you don’t get health care right, it tends to have probably an outsized impact on politics,” Tillis said in a brief interview ahead of the Senate’s vote. He warned his party that slashing Medicaid could become a political albatross, like the Affordable Care Act was for Democrats during Barack Obama’s presidency.
The final bill, passed by the House Thursday, delivered a $1 trillion-plus cut to health care programs and could lead to an estimated 11.8 million people losing their insurance.
House Speaker Mike Johnson privately cautioned that the deeper cuts the Senate passed could cost him his slim majority next year, though he ultimately whipped his members to support the changes. Several Republicans said the cuts would make the bill a tougher sell to their voters.
Adding to the GOP angst: Democrats are preparing to weaponize the bill as they did Republicans’ failed efforts to repeal the Affordable Care Act in 2017. That 2018 midterm election led to a GOP wipeout in the House, with the party losing 40 seats, including some districts in Trump-leaning territory. Democrats are planning to again hitch vulnerable Republicans to the cuts to social safety-net programs.
“I could have defended the House bill every day,” said GOP Rep. Don Bacon, who had raised concerns over cuts to food aid and announced he would retire from his Nebraska swing seat as the Senate prepared to deepen the cuts in the House bill.
“The other side is going to use Medicaid as an issue,” he said, even as he voted for the megabill. “And I think the Senate [version of the bill] gives them a little more leverage to do so.”
Republicans are walking a tightrope as they return to their districts to start selling the sweeping policy package. They’re going to lean into the megabill’s popular provisions, like eliminating taxes on tips, while trying to escape unpopular reductions to safety-net programs. The final bill slashes spending by $1.7 trillion.
Voters broadly dislike the megabill; some recent polling shows a 2-to-1 margin of disapproval, according to surveys conducted by Quinnipiac University, The Washington Post, Pew Research and Fox News. Nearly half of voters want more federal funding for Medicaid, while just 10 percent want less, according to Quinnipiac.
“What we know from past elections is that messing with people’s healthcare coverage is very problematic for politicians. And it has, in the past, yielded some very, very negative views about the people who supported it,” said Republican pollster Whit Ayres.
Meanwhile Democrats are rushing to capitalize on the controversy and plan to make it a centerpiece of their midterm messaging.
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries spoke on the floor for eight hours and 45 minutes, reading letters from constituents of vulnerable GOP lawmakers who could lose access to both programs. Democratic candidates followed up with post-vote statements blasting the Republicans they’re looking to unseat for effectively kicking people in their districts off their health care plans.
Their campaign arms and allied super PACs have already released several rounds of ads hammering vulnerable Republicans and say they plan to keep up the pace.
Republicans are trying to figure out how to fight back.
Their early salvos have focused on painting Democrats as supportive of tax hikes since they opposed a bill that would extend Trump’s 2017 tax cuts and eliminate federal taxes on tips and overtime. Republicans also argue they’re protecting the “most vulnerable” Medicaid recipients by removing undocumented immigrants and others they say shouldn’t have access to the program anyway.
But in a tacit acknowledgment of the potential electoral fallout, some Republicans have pledged to try to reverse provisions such as the provider tax drawdown before they take effect in 2028.
“To the extent that there’s reform, and … you can legitimately argue it’s the waste, fraud, abuse, that’s a good position to be in,” said Rep. Russ Fulcher (R-Idaho). “If it’s just strictly a situation where you say, ‘We’re just cutting and spending’ and it’s not cognizant as to how and where, that’s where we get into trouble.”
Another potential security blanket for the GOP: Many Americans at risk of steep Medicaid cuts reside in deep-red swaths of the country that are unlikely to turn blue next year. But there are also high percentages of Medicaid enrollees in some GOP-held swing districts Democrats are itching to flip.
The Senate’s harsher Medicaid language prompted Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) to vote against the megabill, putting him in the company of deficit hawk Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.). Fitzpatrick, in a statement, said the Senate’s changes “fell short” of protecting constituents in his suburban Philadelphia district that has more than 100,000 enrollees.
Another top Democratic target, Rep. David Valadao (R-Calif.), voted in favor of the bill despite expressing “several concerns” with the stricter limits on provider taxes and state-directed payments that he unsuccessfully lobbied Senate Majority Leader John Thune not to include.
Valadao lost his seat in Democrats’ health-care-fueled 2018 wave, when liberal groups successfully yoked him to GOP efforts to overturn the Affordable Care Act, and won it back in 2020. Now those groups are running the same playbook in his Central Valley district that enrolls nearly two-thirds of his constituents in Medicaid — the highest percentage in the GOP conference.
Valadao, who fought for months to rein in some of the changes to the program, sought to justify his vote in a statement Thursday by arguing “it does preserve the Medicaid program for its intended recipients” and includes a $50 billion stabilization fund to offset harm to rural hospitals.
New York Rep. Mike Lawler, whose lower-Hudson Valley district has more than 200,000 people enrolled in Medicaid, said in a brief interview that he “fought extensively to make sure that there were not draconian changes to Medicaid” and that lawmakers will have time to address some of the others before they take effect.
“At the end of the day, this is about strengthening the program,” he said. As for electoral consequences: “You just tell people what’s actually in the bill, as opposed to what the Democrats have been trying to fearmonger on.”
But Democrats are confident that “putting shine on a turd” will not work, said Ian Russell, a consultant who served as the political director of Democrats’ House campaign arm in 2014 and 2016.
“Republicans are running back their 2018 playbook,” said CJ Warnke, communications director for House Majority PAC, the Democratic leadership-aligned super PAC. “And it’s once again going to cost them the majority.”
Samuel Benson, Cassandra Dumay, Melanie Mason, Nicholas Wu and Holly Otterbein contributed to this report.
Congress
Nancy Pelosi and other Democrats call on Swalwell to end governor campaign
Former Speaker Nancy Pelosi headlined a growing list of Democratic lawmakers who called Friday on Rep. Eric Swalwell to withdraw his campaign for California governor amid allegations of sexual misconduct.
“This extremely sensitive matter must be appropriately investigated with full transparency and accountability,” Pelosi said in a statement. “As I discussed with Congressman Swalwell, it is clear that is best done outside of a gubernatorial campaign.
The San Francisco Chronicle reported Friday that a former congressional aide accused the congressman of two sexual encounters without her consent, beginning in 2019. BLN later reported that four women allege that Swalwell has committed sexual misconduct, including one former staffer who accuses Swalwell of rape.
Swalwell denied the allegations in a statement.
“These allegations are false and come on the eve of an election against the frontrunner for governor,” he said. “I will defend myself with the facts and where necessary bring legal action.”
Key backers of Swalwell’s governor bid swiftly revoked their support after the Chronicle’s story was published, including Reps. Jimmy Gomez (D-Calif.) and Adam Gray (D-Calif.), who served as campaign co-chairs.
“Today’s reports about Eric Swalwell’s conduct while in office are deeply disturbing,” Gray said in a statement. “Harassment, abuse, and violence of any sort are unacceptable. Given these serious allegations, I am withdrawing my support and Eric Swalwell should end his campaign immediately.”
But nothing underscored the peril for Swalwell’s nearly two-decade political career as vividly as Pelosi’s statement. The former speaker included Swalwell in her inner circle of favored Democratic members for years, tapping him for junior leadership roles and to serve as a manager in Donald Trump’s second impeachment trial in 2021.
The situation also presents a predicament for the sitting House Democratic leaders, who have insisted on letting a full Ethics Committee investigation play out before supporting formal discipline against another House Democrat accused of misconduct, Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D-Fla.).
A spokesperson for Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries called the allegations “serious” and said they require “a serious and thorough investigation.”
“These brave women must be heard and respected,” the spokesperson, Christie Stephenson, said in a statement. “It is imperative that the inquiry follow the facts, apply the law and take place immediately.”
House Republicans already began discussing Friday evening the likely scenario that one of their own members will bring a censure effort against Swalwell, according to three people granted anonymity to describe private conversations.
Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.) said in an interview that she was weighing a censure and other action against Swalwell based on the reports of sexual assault allegations against him.
Luna said she would act “if there is evidence brought forward.”
The internal consequences could start playing out as soon as the House returns to session Tuesday, but a wave of top California Democrats immediately dropped their endorsements of Swalwell, including Rep. Ted Lieu, the No. 4 Democrat in House leadership.
Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) likened the situation to his push for transparency around disgraced financier Jeffrey Epstein and called for “appropriate” House and law enforcement investigations.
“No one in a position of power should be allowed to act above the law or with impunity,” he said in a statement. “It doesn’t matter what office you hold, how wealthy you are, or which political party you align with. The same rules must apply to Eric Swalwell.”
Meredith Lee Hill and Hailey Fuchs contributed to this report.
Congress
Trump endorses ‘focused’ immigration enforcement funding bill
President Donald Trump gave his blessing Friday afternoon for a party-line package focused narrowly on immigration enforcement — in a boost to Senate GOP leaders amid the Department of Homeland Security funding stalemate.
Trump’s comments came after he met Friday with Senate Budget Chair Lindsey Graham of South Carolina and Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso of Wyoming. The two lawmakers went to the White House to pitch Senate GOP leadership’s plan to restrict the party’s filibuster-skirting effort to only funding for Immigration and Customs Enforcement and parts of Customs and Border Protection.
“Reconciliation is ON TRACK, and we are moving FAST and FOCUSED in keeping our Border SECURE, and getting funding to the Department of Homeland Security and the Justice Department to continue our incredible SUCCESS at MAKING AMERICA SAFE AGAIN!” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
Trump had previously backed using reconciliation to pass funding for immigration enforcement after it became clear Democrats would not agree to reopen those shuttered operations within DHS without a deal for more guardrails on ICE and CBP. But the president’s post Friday, which hammered home the preference for focusing the bill on this issue, is a significant boost to GOP leaders as they face calls from some of their members to broaden the scope of any reconciliation measure.
Some Republicans have called for funding all of DHS through reconciliation. The Senate previously passed a bipartisan deal that would reopen the department except for ICE and Border Patrol, but it has stalled in the House as hard-liners demand the Senate first pass the immigration enforcement funding.
Graham, whom Trump also re-endorsed Friday, is responsible for crafting the budget resolution that will allow the party to begin the reconciliation process — its second time using this maneuver in addition to last year’s tax and spending megabill. He is expected to tap the Judiciary Committee and the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs panel to draft the immigration enforcement measure.
Senate Republicansare expected to not include pay-fors for the funding, arguing that it would have gone through the appropriations process were it not for opposition from Democrats. They’ll need sign-off from their own conservatives and the right-flank in the House for such a plan.
Trump also reiterated Friday that he wants the bill on his desk by June 1, adding that Republicans won’t need Democrats’ votes “as long as Republicans UNIFY, and stick together.”
The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Myah Ward contributed to this report.
Congress
These Republican-on-Republican disputes are keeping Congress frozen
Republican infighting is leaving Congress in legislative limbo.
While there are plenty of partisan disputes that have frustrated Capitol Hill — such as the nearly two-month shutdown of the Department of Homeland Security — divisions between House and Senate Republicans have been the more significant obstacle for a laundry list of stalled legislation that could otherwise sail to President Donald Trump’s desk.
Trump could intervene to settle many of these disputes, but he has kept his distance in most cases. That has left each chamber pushing ahead with their own proposals — and against their counterparts in the other chamber.
In the one instance where the president appears truly invested, in passage of a sweeping GOP elections bill, his fixation has only made the intraparty divisions worse.
Lawmakers will return to Washington next week with the pre-midterm legislative calendar dwindling and leaders eyeing action on at least one party-line budget reconciliation bill — a time-consuming process that could make it even tougher to find consensus on these pending items:
Housing affordability
With cost-of-living concerns dominating the pre-midterm political landscape, a bipartisan effort to address housing prices should be a no-brainer, but disputes over niche policy provisions are holding up dueling House and Senate housing packages.
The Senate passed a bill last month that includes a temporary ban on central bank digital currency as well as a provision restricting large investors from owning more than 350 homes. Both provisions face serious opposition from House Republicans, who joined with Democrats in their chamber to pass their own bill in February.
While the Senate wants the House to accept its version, House Financial Services Chair French Hill (R-Ark.) and others in the GOP are pushing for the two chambers to go to conference — potentially adding months to the process.
Aviation safety
Legislation aiming to respond to the deadly crash near Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport last year is stuck in a battle of wills among GOP committee chairs. A bill backed by Senate Commerce Chair Ted Cruz (R-Texas) appeared set for Trump’s desk earlier this year until the heads of two key House committees, Armed Services Chair Mike Rogers (R-Ala.) and Transportation and Infrastructure Chair Sam Graves (R-Mo.), came out against it, causing the measure to fail on the House floor.
The Senate bill’s requirement for advanced aircraft location-alerting technology has been one of the biggest points of contention among Republicans, with the House version of the bill opting for more open-ended language. The House bill focuses on a different technology, which major aviation labor groups argue wouldn’t have prevented the Washington disaster.
Cruz has called the House rejection of his ROTOR Act a “temporary delay,” but the House chairs are pushing forward with their own ALERT Act, with a floor vote expected Tuesday. How the policy disputes will be settled from there remains uncertain.
College sports
Trump has taken a keen interest in college athletics, issuing a flurry of executive orders on this topic. But Congress has struggled to act on legislation tackling the controversial “name, image and likeness” regime for compensating student athletes
House Republicans last year made a push for the SCORE Act, which would create new standards for how college athletes are paid and give antitrust exemptions, before opposition from hard-liners and many Democrats put it on ice.
While there has been new chatter about putting it on the floor this month, the bill is dead on arrival in the Senate, where Cruz and Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.), the top Commerce Committee senators, have warned the measure doesn’t have enough support. The two are discussing ways to address NIL concerns but have yet to produce a bill.
Tech regulation
The House and Senate have failed to reach consensus on a number of tech-industry flashpoints, including artificial intelligence and children’s online safety.
The House GOP largely wants to codify a Trump executive order creating a national AI rulebook, but some Senate Republicans appear concerned that the president’s plan could limit state-level regulations the White House wants to override.
There’s a similar standoff over online safety bills. The Senate cleared a privacy bill by unanimous consent, but the House hasn’t taken it up and instead is pushing ahead with a package that doesn’t include key Senate-passed provisions.
One of the key differences is on state preemption — included in the House version but not the Senate version. Another dispute is over “duty of care” language in the Senate bill that requires tech companies to design their platforms with an eye toward preventing harm to children. Senate Majority Leader John Thune floated pairing AI legislation with kids online safety legislation in an interview earlier this year.
And then there’s cryptocurrency: A closely watched “market structure” bill is stuck for now in the Senate after it was excluded from a landmark crypto bill signed into law last year despite a push in the House.
The Trump administration is increasing pressure, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent saying Thursday that “Senate time is precious, and now is the time to act.”
Elections oversight
Conservative lawmakers and Trump have joined forces behind the SAVE America Act — a GOP bill aimed at fully eliminating noncitizen voting — as a top-level, must-pass agenda item even as many Senate Republicans doubt it can ever skirt their chamber’s 60-vote filibuster threshold.
Trump views the bill as his “No. 1 priority,” and House hard-liners are pushing for a filibuster workaround. Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) has pushed to force Democrats into a “talking filibuster” where they would have to hold the floor to block the bill, and the Senate will resume debate early next week with no indication of when GOP leaders will choose to hold a likely doomed vote and move on.
Some Republicans, including Senate Budget Chair Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, want to try to pass parts of the bill through the reconciliation process later this fall. But hard-liners view that as a nonstarter because most of the bill likely violates the strict Senate rules governing the party-line reconciliation process.
DHS funding
There’s no bigger dispute for House and Senate Republicans to settle than DHS funding, which has already been subject to nearly a month of back-and-forth.
A Senate-passed bill delivering funding for all of the department save for immigration enforcement agencies is currently held up in the House. Republicans there aren’t enthused about a plan that would instead fund ICE and other agencies through the reconciliation process — an idea Speaker Mike Johnson called “garbage” before flipping in support.
Now, many House Republicans want their Senate counterparts to pass immigration enforcement funding before the House passes the balance of DHS spending. The hard-line Freedom Caucus has gone further, demanding GOP leaders fund all of DHS through reconciliation.
As party leaders make plans to pass a narrowly targeted reconciliation bill ahead of a Trump-imposed June 1 deadline, most Senate Republicans want the House to fund most of DHS now — or risk prolonging the infighting that even one GOP senator called a “circular firing squad.”
Katherine Hapgood, Gabby Miller, Alfred Ng, Nick Niedzwiadek and Sam Ogozalek contributed to this report.
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