Politics

Republicans’ alarm grows about holding Texas Senate seat

Published

8 months ago

February 26, 2026

With just days until Texas’ primary, Republicans in Washington are growing more alarmed that their increasingly vicious intraparty contest could cost them a must-win Senate seat.

Sen. John Cornyn appears to be headed to an expensive and nasty 10-week runoff against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, with a strong chance that Paxton wins the nomination even after national Republicans spent months airing his dirty laundry all over the Texas airwaves in an effort to boost Cornyn.

“Honestly, if you look at the polling in a general election setting, I don’t think it’s outside the realm of possibility that the seat [flips], depending on who the Democrats nominate,” said Senate Majority Leader John Thune, when asked about the possibility that Republicans could lose the race if Cornyn, who he endorsed, is not the party’s nominee.

If Cornyn loses the primary, Senate Republicans worry they could be forced to spend hundreds of millions of dollars that could otherwise go toward key battleground races in expensive states like North Carolina, Georgia or Michigan, complicating their path toward holding Senate control.

Republicans have already spent nearly $100 million on TV advertising in the primary, which also includes Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Texas), according to data from AdImpact. And Cornyn launched new ads this week, with support from the National Republican Senatorial Committee, that hammer Paxton in ways that could hurt him in the general election too: highlighting his messy ongoing divorce and accusations of corruption and calling Paxton a “wife-cheater and fraud.”

But those attacks haven’t stopped Paxton, a MAGA hero more aligned with the party base who has been bolstered by positive polling and a wave of grassroots enthusiasm.

“All signs indicate that Paxton probably finishes first,” a Washington GOP operative close to Cornyn told Blue Light News granted anonymity to candidly discuss the race. “We’re just hoping the gap is close enough the narrative isn’t ‘Paxton kicked the crap out of Cornyn.’”

Paxton attended the president’s State of the Union address Tuesday night as a guest of Rep. Troy Nehls (R-Texas), who called warnings of an expensive general election a “scare tactic.”

“What you’re doing now is you’re telling Texas you can’t elect Ken Paxton, not because you do a better job than me, but it’ll cost too much to win it,” said Nehls. “What a desperate attempt to convince voters to not vote for Ken Paxton because it could cost too much money in November. That’s ridiculous.”

Paxton is predicting a massive victory. Speaking with reporters after a campaign rally in the Houston suburbs last Friday, he suggested he may win the race outright and avoid a runoff.

Both Paxton and Cornyn allies have been running ads attacking Hunt in recent days, a sign either that they see a chance that Hunt could edge Cornyn for a spot in the runoff — or that Paxton could win outright.

If the race does extend until the end of May, Paxton said he doesn’t intend to change his strategy.

“It’ll be grassroots, just like it always has been, and we’ll be out trying to compete,” Paxton said. “Obviously, [Cornyn] has got a lot of money, D.C. money. I don’t have that money. We’ll have our money from Texas.”

A spokesperson for Hunt said the congressman told NRSC chair Sen. Tim Scott last year before he got into the race that Cornyn was going to lose, but “Washington ignored it.” They also warned that Paxton could be vulnerable in the general election.

“If Senate Republicans lose the majority, it will be because the NRSC failed to plan for the future and chose to spend a record-breaking sum meddling in a Republican primary in Texas, of all places, where the GOP nominee is almost always favored to win,” the spokesperson said. “That’s malpractice.”

Republican Party officials and Senate GOP leaders think Cornyn has a far better chance than Paxton of staving off a Democratic challenger in the general election. When asked for comment on the race, the NRSC pointed to a memo it circulated to donors earlier this month that said that “John Cornyn is the only Republican candidate who reliably wins a general election matchup,” and warned “Paxton puts this seat at risk.”

“We have to be prepared to spend there, and that’s a very different scenario if Cornyn’s the nominee,” Thune said. “He is by far, I think, the best candidate on the ballot in a general election, not only for the Senate, but also for down-ballot races in the House that could be impacted by the Senate race too.”

The polls bear that out. The NRSC released polling toplines showing Cornyn leading state Rep. James Talarico by 3 points and Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Texas) by 7 points in general-election matchups. Paxton would trail Talarico by 3 points and lead Crockett by just 1 point. Nonpartisan public polls have found similar numbers.

A Democrat has not won a U.S. Senate election in Texas since 1988.

Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R-Texas), who hasn’t made an endorsement in the race, said she hopes the Republican primary avoids a runoff. “We’ve got to keep Texas red,” she said. “That is not a choice, and so the faster we can get someone in place, the better it is for all Texans.”

During a Fox News appearance Monday, Cornyn said he anticipates he will face Paxton in a runoff and warned that a Paxton victory would give Democrats a boost in November.

“Unfortunately, the attorney general has got so much baggage and corruption in his wake that he will jeopardize our chances of keeping this seat red in November,” Cornyn said. “I believe that I can help President Trump in [the] end of his second term by not only winning this race, but bringing along some of these congressmen who are running in these five new congressional seats. Ken Paxton jeopardizes all of that.”

Paxton has led or been in a statistical tie with Cornyn in nearly every primary poll since launching his bid in April of last year, despite campaigning minimally and spending a small fraction compared with Cornyn’s war chest. It’s a testament to Paxton’s status as an aggressive MAGA figure in Texas, a reputation he has forged while serving as Texas’ top lawyer for a decade. Paxton used the power of his office to stoke the culture wars in court, like suing to overturn the 2020 election and defending the state’s strict abortion ban.

Dave Carney, an adviser to Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, predicted that Cornyn and Paxton will face off in a runoff, where he suggested Paxton would have the edge. The most conservative candidate tends to win because they often have the most driven supporters in low-turnout primary runoff elections.

“They have to run real campaigns, both of them, they got to model their voters and turn them out,” said Carney.

To date, Trump has resisted making an endorsement in the primary. “I’m friendly with all of them,” he said earlier this month. “I like all of them, all three.”

Thune and other Senate Republicans for months privately lobbied to get Trump to endorse Cornyn, believing he would be the most formidable candidate in the general election. Thune has been careful not to predict what Trump will do in the future. Some top Trump political aides are working on Cornyn’s campaign — but the president has a longstanding relationship with Paxton. There is lingering skepticism in and outside of the Capitol that Trump would endorse Cornyn if the senator comes in second heading into the runoff.

Trump is scheduled to make an appearance in Corpus Christi on Friday to deliver a speech on the economy. A White House aide, granted anonymity to speak freely, said the president will not endorse at the event. The White House hasn’t announced if any of the GOP Senate candidates will join Trump on the trip.

Top GOP donors, too, worry that the party is burning money — and that Paxton still has the upper hand in spite of the huge spending against him, with some concerned about an outright Paxton win.

“Nobody truly knows what is going to happen based on the polling,” said one GOP donor. “There is a scenario [where] Cornyn doesn’t make it into a runoff. But even if he does, a runoff with Paxton will be very tough because of [the] low number of voters who turn out — most of whom are very conservative and viewed as Paxton voters.”

The person added that there is “frustration from everyone that Trump lets this happen by not endorsing.”

Another GOP donor said there’s “not a lot of cautious optimism” among donors that Cornyn will even make it to a runoff. “It’s going down to the wire,” the donor lamented.

Lisa Kashinsky contributed reporting.

Politics

Haley Stevens caps a bizarre midterm cycle

Published

19 hours ago

November 2, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

Haley Stevens caps a bizarre midterm cycle

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Politics

Republicans are privately blaming Trump, even if they won’t say it out loud

Published

20 hours ago

November 2, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

Republicans are already privately blaming President Donald Trump as they brace for losses on Tuesday.

Even as they race to distance themselves from his actions on tariffs, the unpopular Iran war and his mass deportation agenda, few have been willing to criticize him publicly — a clear sign of just how powerful Trump’s grip remains on the GOP. But interviews with roughly a dozen candidates, campaign officials and lawmakers reveal they’re acutely aware of who, exactly, put them on the back foot this entire cycle.

“There was a point earlier this year where we really felt like we could defy history,” said one House Republican, who, like others in this article, was granted anonymity to candidly discuss midterms dynamics. “And then Trump bombed Iran. And it was just one thing after another.”

Republicans are tied or trailing in polls in numerous critical battlegrounds and expecting to lose some once-secure red seats. And Trump’s unfocused closing message — including repeated comments about male candidates’ physical appearances — has further frustrated an already on-edge party.

“I think Jon Husted’s ass and Nicki Minaj’s is a great closing message,” T.W. Arrighi, a Republican strategist working on the South Carolina Senate race and others, said sarcastically in an interview on The Conversation with Dasha Burns. “You’ve got to take the good with the bad with Trump, unless you want to drive yourself crazy every day.”

“People are gonna go after the president. The buck stops with him. His approval ratings aren’t great,” he added.

Privately, some Republicans are even harsher. “At least when Barack Obama was president, he only screwed his enemies, never his friends,” said a second House Republican.

The White House defended its involvement in the war with Iran, tariff regime and approach to immigration enforcement. Davis Ingle, a White House spokesperson, said in a statement that Trump “is the unequivocal leader, best messenger, and unmatched motivator for the Republican Party, and he is committed to maintaining Republican majorities in Congress.”

One White House official, granted anonymity to speak candidly, called the blame game “an asinine adventure” and said Trump “has obviously left it all on the field.”

If the bottom falls out for the GOP on Tuesday, the quiet calls assigning him blame may turn into a public shanking as Trump nears the lame-duck stage of his presidency, Republicans refocus on how to win voters back for 2028 and jostle for their own spots in the party’s future.

“I’m not sure what the Republican Party looks like in six months. Look, a lot of Republicans have held their tongues. A lot of Republicans who have real problems with the way things have gone the last two years have been good soldiers,” said a Republican strategist involved in competitive midterm races across the country. “But what happens if we lose 35 House seats and six Senate seats?”

“We all know who the problem is. It’s Trump. And do we continue down a path of losing?” the strategist added.

In Georgia, some Republicans have already warned that low early voting turnout in rural parts of the state could drag down their entire ticket. “If you live in rural Georgia, you’re going to be disproportionately hurt by higher — especially diesel — prices,” said Jason Shepherd, the former GOP chair of suburban Cobb County. “The promise of the great Trump economy has not materialized.”

Top Hill Republicans have worked behind the scenes for months to try to alleviate some of the political fallout from Trump’s election year policy moves, including arguing to White House officials that Maine Sen. Susan Collins and Michigan Senate nominee Mike Rogers could lose their races if the administration didn’t reach an off-ramp from the trade war with Canada, according to three Republicans with direct knowledge of the matter. Eventually, Trump agreed to roll back some tariffs and add new ones in a boost to Collins.

Republicans also pressed for the White House to undo some of Trump’s other controversial moves, like his executive order to import more foreign beef that has riled ranchers and farmers in red states like Kansas, Iowa and Texas. But that relief never came.

“Republicans have always been aware of the historical midterm precedent, and that’s why we’re barnstorming the country to tout the president’s achievements on cutting taxes, securing the border, and lowering drug costs,” said Natalie Baldassarre, a spokesperson for the Republican National Committee. “Any anonymous strategist who says the president is not helpful in turning out Republican voters has no idea what they’re talking about, and their candidates should request a refund for their shoddy consulting services.”

But Trump’s actions, Republicans say, are hitting different parts of the country hard. The Iran war, they argue, was a significant blunder from Trump that has multiplied Democrats’ paths to power in both the House and Senate by driving fuel and fertilizer costs up — most notably impacting races across the Midwest.

The White House’s tariffs regime has been a major concern in battlegrounds on the Canadian border like Maine and Michigan.

Hardline immigration enforcement that has resulted in the deportation of thousands has hurt especially in heavily Latino border states like Arizona and Texas, and the cancelling of Temporary Protected Status for Haitians and Venezuelans has enraged South Florida voters. Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar, a Miami Republican, warned the president in a campaign ad earlier this year that his immigration tactics had gone too far.

“Trump won Miami, and yet he went to the place that gave him the biggest support, and kind of just fucked everybody over if we’re being honest.” said one Florida-based Republican operative.

New results from The Blue Light News Poll show that Republican midterm voters are split over who they would blame if the GOP performs worse than it did in 2024: A sizable 29% blame Trump for making the GOP less popular, while 30% said it is because Trump himself is not on the ballot. Fourteen percent said it would be because the Democratic Party has become more popular, while roughly one in four said they don’t know.

Some in the party question whether Trump’s last-minute campaign travel across the country and the millions of dollars his political operation has poured into battleground states will even be enough. They see him as more absorbed in protecting his legacy than making actionable policy changes to help his party stay in power.

“He cares more about the ballroom than he cares about Republicans winning the midterms,” said a third Republican strategist working in battleground races. “He wants the Nobel Peace Prize, these big legacy-defining things seem to be taking up more of his attention than actually being president.”

A fourth GOP operative working on midterms races has a curt message if Republicans lose big: “Thank you, Donald Trump.”

Dasha Burns contributed reporting.

Politics

Democrats eye state supreme court races — this year and beyond

Published

1 day ago

November 1, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

Liberal groups have spent millions in a handful of battleground state supreme court races ahead of Tuesday’s elections, looking to lay the groundwork for Democrats to win control of more courts ahead of a crucial redistricting cycle.

At the center of the fight are races for Republican-majority state supreme courts in North Carolina and Ohio, where this year’s results could set the stage for Democrats to flip the makeup of the benches in 2028. National groups are also spending to defend the liberal majority on Michigan’s court and on an open seat in Montana, where voters will also decide whether judicial elections remain nonpartisan.

The investments are yet another reflection of how state supreme court elections have become national political battlegrounds. The high court justices have become arbiters of major disputes, from abortion rights to election integrity and redistricting. Those who win in the coming cycles will likely preside over challenges to congressional and legislative maps that are drawn in a handful of states after the midterm election — and then nationwide after the 2030 census.

Nowhere are the contests more heated than in North Carolina.

Democrats’ defense of a seat currently held by Anita Earls is “step No. 2” to flip the North Carolina Supreme Court, said Anderson Clayton, the state’s Democratic Party chair. “In 2028, we’re looking at being able to take three Republican seats on that court.”

Democrats lost four seats on the state supreme court in the 2020 and 2022 elections, and the Republican majority cleared the way for a Republican-led gerrymandering in 2023.

Clayton said her group has spent more than $1 million on the state supreme court race. Earls has also drawn support from national Democrats like Pete Buttigieg and Maryland Gov. Wes Moore.

“If we had won a state Supreme Court race then in 2020 in our state, Hakeem Jeffries would be speaker of the House right now,” said Clayton, adding that her group is trying to build the foundation for congressional majorities “in 2032 and beyond.”

The ACLU is among the groups making long-term investments in state supreme court races. It has poured $8 million into state supreme court races in North Carolina, Michigan and Montana this year, in addition to Georgia and Wisconsin races earlier this year, said Deirdre Schifeling, the group’s chief political and advocacy officer, making it one of the top spenders in these contests.

The ACLU’s multi-cycle strategy to build “pro-civil rights, civil liberties majorities” is also targeting Arizona, Pennsylvania, Kentucky and Ohio, Schifeling said. The group already set aside resources for supreme court races in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania in 2027 and will begin fundraising for the 2028 races early next year.

More than $14 million has been spent on television ads in North Carolina, Michigan, Ohio and Montana, most of it benefiting Democratic and liberal-leaning candidates, according to estimates from the liberal-leaning Brennan Center for Justice. Most of the liberal candidates have also outraised their conservative competitors.

Michigan Supreme Court Chief Justice Megan Cavanagh, foreground center, and Justice Noah Hood, left, walk together during the Michigan Democratic Party State Endorsement Convention on April 19 in Detroit.

By contrast, the electoral headwinds have forced Republicans to defend statewide offices and state legislatures they currently control, leaving fewer resources for the judicial races.

Republican-aligned groups like the Republican State Leadership Committee — the party’s chief downballot campaign organization — have largely stayed on the sidelines this cycle after warning for months they were being swamped by Democrats. The organization’s judicial affiliate reported more than $5 million in expenditures across 2024 and 2025.

“Democrats understand what is at stake, and have dumped massive amounts of resources into these contests,” said RSLC President Edith Jorge-Tuñón in a statement. “The RSLC is fighting back with smart and targeted spending because the investments we make today will determine whether we are positioned to protect our majorities, compete in the next redistricting cycle, and secure Republican victories for years to come.”

The National Democratic Redistricting Committee — the party’s main redistricting-focused group — declined to discuss this year’s total spending in judicial races this year, but NDRC President John Bisognano said in a statement that “the upcoming 2026 and 2028 state supreme court elections are critical to the long-term fight to protect democracy.”

And those involved in supreme court fights said they believed spending will only increase down the road, particularly from major industry players.

“I think that the money flowing into those races from external interests tells the tale of what big money, big pharma, big data recognize about the next areas that they can seek to leverage and control to their benefit,” said Tish Gotell Faulks, the state courts director at the liberal Alliance for Justice Action. “Those interests are now turning to the state courts and seeking to capture those courts as well.”