Race for the House: Capitol Hill ponders how thin a razor-thin majority can be

More than two weeks after Election Day, there are still five uncalled House races — four of which have a margin of just hundreds of votes. In California, the two uncalled races each have margins of about 300 votes.

Why does this matter? If Democrats flip both California seats, Republicans would have just a 220-215 House majority at the start of the new Congress.

That’s before factoring in the departures of three GOP congresspeople — Elise Stefanik (N.Y.), Matt Gaetz (Fla.) and Michael Waltz (Fla.) — nominated for roles in the Trump administration that would temporarily trim that margin even further. Republican leadership would need incredibly strict caucus management in this scenario to pass anything.

So, here’s where things stand in the remaining contests:

Iowa’s 1st: Incumbent Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) leads her Democratic opponent Christina Bohannan by just 801 votes as a recount begins in the contest. The House Administration Committee said Tuesday it would dispatch additional staff to observe that process.

Ohio’s 9th: The remaining counties in this district are expected to certify their results on Wednesday as Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D), the longest-serving woman in congressional history, clings to a 833 vote lead that’s narrowed by hundreds of votes since election night. If the contest is within 0.5 percentage points, as it is right now, there will be an automatic recount.

Alaska at-large: GOP challenger Nick Begich’s lead over Rep. Mary Peltola (D) has narrowed to around 7,500 votes as more ballots are counted in The Last Frontier, but he appears in strong position to hold on and flip this seat. The X factor? The state’s ranked-choice voting system, which will kick in on Nov. 20 if no candidate hits a majority threshold to win. There are some 16,000 votes between the third and fourth place finishers that would be redistributed to Begich and Peltola.

California’s 13th: A friendly ballot drop of ballots for Democrats on Tuesday trimmed incumbent Rep. John Duarte’s lead over challenger Adam Gray to just 227 votes. A win by Gray here would mark another flip for Democrats — and there are thousands of ballots left to count.

California’s 45th: Democratic challenger Derek Tran took the lead over Rep. Michelle Steel (R) over the weekend, and he’s continued to widen his narrow advantage since then. He now leads by 314 votes after Tuesday’s ballot drop.

Bonus race: Alaska ranked-choice voting: An effort to repeal the state’s ranked-choice voting system is currently failing by just 45 votes statewide. It was a major factor in the state’s 2022 Senate contest won by Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) and is generally seen as a positive for more centrist candidates.