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Race for the House: Capitol Hill ponders how thin a razor-thin majority can be

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More than two weeks after Election Day, there are still five uncalled House races — four of which have a margin of just hundreds of votes. In California, the two uncalled races each have margins of about 300 votes.

Why does this matter? If Democrats flip both California seats, Republicans would have just a 220-215 House majority at the start of the new Congress.

That’s before factoring in the departures of three GOP congresspeople — Elise Stefanik (N.Y.), Matt Gaetz (Fla.) and Michael Waltz (Fla.) — nominated for roles in the Trump administration that would temporarily trim that margin even further. Republican leadership would need incredibly strict caucus management in this scenario to pass anything.

So, here’s where things stand in the remaining contests:

Iowa’s 1st: Incumbent Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) leads her Democratic opponent Christina Bohannan by just 801 votes as a recount begins in the contest. The House Administration Committee said Tuesday it would dispatch additional staff to observe that process.

Ohio’s 9th: The remaining counties in this district are expected to certify their results on Wednesday as Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D), the longest-serving woman in congressional history, clings to a 833 vote lead that’s narrowed by hundreds of votes since election night. If the contest is within 0.5 percentage points, as it is right now, there will be an automatic recount.

Alaska at-large: GOP challenger Nick Begich’s lead over Rep. Mary Peltola (D) has narrowed to around 7,500 votes as more ballots are counted in The Last Frontier, but he appears in strong position to hold on and flip this seat. The X factor? The state’s ranked-choice voting system, which will kick in on Nov. 20 if no candidate hits a majority threshold to win. There are some 16,000 votes between the third and fourth place finishers that would be redistributed to Begich and Peltola.

California’s 13th: A friendly ballot drop of ballots for Democrats on Tuesday trimmed incumbent Rep. John Duarte’s lead over challenger Adam Gray to just 227 votes. A win by Gray here would mark another flip for Democrats — and there are thousands of ballots left to count.

California’s 45th: Democratic challenger Derek Tran took the lead over Rep. Michelle Steel (R) over the weekend, and he’s continued to widen his narrow advantage since then. He now leads by 314 votes after Tuesday’s ballot drop.

Bonus race: Alaska ranked-choice voting: An effort to repeal the state’s ranked-choice voting system is currently failing by just 45 votes statewide. It was a major factor in the state’s 2022 Senate contest won by Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) and is generally seen as a positive for more centrist candidates.

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Congress

TSA administrator makes bid to stay on under Trump

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Transportation Security Administration chief David Pekoske is signaling that he’d like to stay on in his current role as President-elect Donald Trump begins his second term.

During a segment about Thanksgiving travel with CBS on Tuesday, Pekoske was clear that he’s hoping to stay until his term ends in 2027, saying that he “loves” the role.

“It’s important for continuity in TSA to run the second term to its conclusion,” he said, adding that the agency has made numerous investments and increased partnerships not just in air travel but on surface transportation security, too.

A TSA spokesperson on Wednesday backstopped Pekoske’s comments. Pekoske “was instrumental in pushing for equal pay of all TSA employees to make them commensurate with the rest of the federal government” among other initiatives like lowering workforce attrition and increasing screener employees at airports, the spokesperson said.

“The agency has come a long way in innovation and technology under his tenure to increase security effectiveness, efficiency and the customer experience,” the spokesperson added.

A number of aviation and travel industry executives attending the U.S. Travel Association’s conference echoed that desire for continuity in interviews Wednesday.

Tori Emerson Barnes, U.S. Travel’s executive vice president for public affairs and policy, told Blue Light News at the event that the industry has had a “really great working relationship” with Pekoske, who’s “leaned in, pushing innovation and has worked on really driving change at the organization.”

“He was first nominated and confirmed in Trump’s first term, and so he’s been a steady hand, a consistent voice that really has led the way” on these initiatives, Barnes said. “Our hope would be that he would stay until the end of his term.”

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Trump picks Pete Hoekstra to be US ambassador to Canada

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Donald Trump wants to give former Rep. Pete Hoekstra another turn as a diplomat.

Trump announced Wednesday that Hoekstra, who served as ambassador to the Netherlands during his first administration, is his pick for ambassador to Canada for his second.

“In my Second Term, Pete will once again help me put AMERICA FIRST,” Trump said in a statement. “He did an outstanding job as United States Ambassador to the Netherlands during our first four years, and I am confident that he will continue to represent our Country well in this new role.”

Hoekstra served as ambassador to the Netherlands from 2018 to 2021 and in Congress from 1993 to 2011. He unsuccessfully ran for governor in 2010 and for the Senate in 2012. He currently serves as chair of the Michigan GOP.

If confirmed as ambassador to Canada by the Senate, Hoekstra would take the position at a time of strong unity between the two countries after four tumultuous years during Trump’s first term, when he scrapped the North American Free Trade Agreement, imposed tariffs on Canadian aluminum and had a rocky relationship with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

Kelly Craft, who served as the top U.S. envoy in Canada under Trump between 2017 and 2019, said during an appearance at a policy forum last month that a future Trump administration would expect Ottawa to meet its NATO military spending commitment more quickly than under the timeline set by Trudeau’s government.

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‘Black mark’: Lawmakers seethe over Ethics’ Gaetz report imbroglio

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Matt Gaetz is plunging the House into chaos, again.

Members of the House Ethics Committee deadlocked over whether to release the findings of an investigation into the former Florida lawmaker, who is Donald Trump’s pick for attorney general. The inaction is triggering outrage among Democrats, who argue the committee is dragging out the process, while Republicans remain furious that Gaetz put them in this position.

In a bid to force the release of the Ethics report, which is expected to cover several allegations, including that Gaetz had sex with a minor, Democratic Reps. Sean Casten (D-Ill.) and Steve Cohen (D-Tenn.) are offering motions that would open up the decision to the full House.

Conservative allies of Trump and Gaetz are threatening retribution over such a move, but several Republicans are still insisting they want the report to come out. In a manifestation of the tumult, expelled Rep. George Santos, the recent subject of another Ethics Committee report, stopped by the Capitol to get in on the action.

“This is awful,” said Rep. Joe Morelle (D-N.Y.). “It’s a black mark on the House of Representatives.”

The havoc is the latest illustration of how Trump’s looming return to Washington is shaking the foundations of Capitol Hill and forcing Republican lawmakers to make a series of immediate, high-stakes calls about the integrity of the legislative branch.

Several House and Senate Republicans want to see the report, a demand some of them reiterated after a Wednesday Ethics Committee meeting on the subject resulted in no clear action. Another panel meeting on the matter is scheduled for Dec. 5.

Asked if he would still want the report to be given to the Senate, even if Ethics Committee Republicans didn’t support releasing it, Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) said: “The Senate deserves to have it, so they can make a good decision.”

Meanwhile, Democrats do not plan to let the GOP bury the findings of the Gaetz investigation, and that strain could pose a serious threat to the Ethics Committee itself. Rep. Susan Wild of Pennsylvania, the panel’s top Democrat, accused Chair Michael Guest (R-Miss.) of having “betrayed the process” by suggesting to reporters that the panel’s decision not to release the report was final.

Guest countered: “That’s her choice, if that’s what she feels.”

Internally, the panel doesn’t even seem to agree whether the Gaetz report is complete or still in draft form. Republicans publicly insisted the report wasn’t finished yet, though two people familiar with the process granted anonymity to speak about private deliberations countered that it was final. Gaetz has repeatedly denied the allegations against him.

Even before Guest announced to a swarm of reporters that the committee hadn’t reached an agreement on releasing the report, Rep. Sean Casten (D-Ill.) vowed to leapfrog House leadership and force a vote on the floor. Rep. Steve Cohen (D-Tenn.) then called Casten, according to a person familiar with the matter granted anonymity, and said he wanted to work together. Casten rejected the offer, so Cohen introduced his own motion to force a vote, leading to a floor pileup.

If Cohen’s and Casten’s efforts to force a vote are allowed to move forward — which is still unclear, since they might not meet the rules of a so-called privileged motion — they would either need support, or absences, from a handful of Republicans. While GOP members may want the report out, it’s unclear if they would back those efforts if they thought the Ethics panel was still working it out.

“I would hope that if you are at home and you are a Republican, a Democrat, an independent, that you would want to see the information on the nominee to become your attorney general or any other member of the Cabinet,” Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) said, adding that it was “not a good sign” that there is information the committee apparently doesn’t want released.

And California Rep. Pete Aguilar, the No. 3 House Democrat, said Wednesday he would “support ranking member Wild” and her calls in recent days for the report to be public.

Though at least one Democrat was hesitant to support a bid to force the committee’s hand.

“This committee will become partisan if we vote to release a report on any member. And so that’s my concern,” said Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-Fla.), who is friendly with Gaetz.

The hours-long Ethics Committee meeting and subsequent fury happened a week after Gaetz was tapped to be attorney general and abruptly resigned from the House. Gaetz told leadership that his decision to step down was tied to wanting to be able to fill his seat quickly, but dozens of his colleagues speculated that it was actually to avoid the release of the Ethics Committee’s report.

Even as some Republicans have clamored for the report to be made public, Gaetz allies argue many are seeking retribution against a former lawmaker — one who made a lot of enemies in the chamber, most notably when he orchestrated the ouster of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy and left the House without a speaker for three tumultuous weeks.

“The Ethics Committee is not a fair investigation,” said Rep. Eric Burlison (R-Mo.), who attended a Freedom Caucus meeting this week where Gaetz made an appearance to thank his allies. “I don’t think anybody believes what happens in the Ethics Committee is actually unbiased.”

And conservatives are threatening retribution of their own if Democrats successfully force a vote on the House floor to release the report, warning that it could pave the way for them to try to get Ethics reports involving current or former Democratic members. Those threats are unlikely to deter Democrats, who have been largely unified in wanting the Gaetz report to be released.

“If you release this report, then you know, what’s good for the goose is good for the gander. Let’s start talking about releasing other reports,” Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) said, adding that he would defer to the Ethics Committee.

“I think that would be a valid move,” echoed Rep. Barry Moore (R-Ala.), when asked about the potential GOP countermove. “I mean, if they’re gonna try to dig up that sort of stuff, why not?”

Mia McCarthy contributed to this report.

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