Congress
Pro-Talarico PAC pulls back curtain on historic investment
In January, the leading super PAC backing James Talarico spotted a problem in the data: Talarico was running behind where he needed to be in Hispanic-heavy South Texas in order to win the March primary.
It didn’t take them long to find a winning message.
A late January poll commissioned by the PAC signaled immense outrage among Texas Democratic voters over ICE’s Minneapolis crackdown. The PAC quickly went up on air with an ad cutting a speech Talarico gave at an anti-ICE rally, before Talarico’s campaign went up with their own immigration spot. According to their data, it helped shore up the South Texas vote and secure Talarico’s primary victory over Rep. Jasmine Crockett. As high-profile ICE incidents spread to other parts of the state throughout the summer and fall, the PAC kept the ad on air. In the end, the ad ran across Texas for 244 straight days, making it their single longest-running spot.
“It really moved voters,” Garry Jones, director of Lone Star Rising PAC, told Blue Light News.
Talarico’s historic victory Tuesday night was the result of an extremely favorable national environment, a uniquely capable candidate and campaign, robust statewide coordinated effort, and significant boosts from outside allies. The previously unreported efforts of the top Talarico-aligned outside super PAC amounted to the largest Democratic independent expenditure in Texas history, the group says.
The PAC, funded in part by Democratic megadonor Reid Hoffman, spent $44 million this cycle, boosting Talarico in the primary and helping push him across the finish line in the general election. It outspent the top pro-Ken Paxton PAC, Lone Star Liberty, and put more money into Texas than top Senate Democrats’ top PAC, Senate Majority PAC.
Jones said he was in regular touch with SMP, sharing polling that showed Talarico could win.
“By making the investments early … we were able to create a buffer and show that there was other investment in the state, which I think was really crucial in other groups investing in Texas,” Jones said.
After the primary, Lone Star Rising PAC saw an opening with Paxton-skeptical Republicans, many of whom backed Sen. John Cornyn and were moved by the tens of millions of dollars in anti-Paxton spending in the GOP primary.
“There were times in our polling where self-identified non-MAGA Republicans were splitting 50-50 between James and Paxton,” Jones said.
The PAC isolated the few precincts where Cornyn won or came close to winning during the May runoff — mostly in urban Houston, Dallas, Fort Worth, San Antonio and Austin — and launched a targeted mail and broadcast ad campaign aimed at Republican voters. In one, a Republican former state representative talked about Paxton’s impeachment proceedings; another ad clipped Cornyn saying Paxton is “corrupt” and “unfit for office.”
“Our polling made clear James’ message and unique ability to communicate with these voters made these types of numbers possible,” Jones said. “This was our theory. The aggressive program we ran to move traditional Republicans voters to James clearly worked and the theory we set out with months ago was correct.”
Days before the election, Jones said he saw an email come through the PAC’s generic inbox: “I’m so sick and tired of your ads. I want to go vote for Ken Paxton 100 times,” the sender, a Republican, wrote. Jones took it as a sign the ads were breaking through.
Talarico won by 12 points, becoming the first Democrat in nearly four decades to win a Senate race in Texas.