Politics
Pro-Israel Democrats face major test in key Midwest races
The Democratic Party’s fight over Israel is returning to where it began. Jewish Democrats are warning the results could push them out of the party entirely.
In Michigan, where grassroots anger over the Biden administration’s approach to the war in Gaza gave rise to the “uncommitted” movement in 2024, the American Israel Public Affairs Committee’s main super PAC, United Democracy Project, has spent a record $30 million — more than double its next-highest spend ever, according to AdImpact data — to keep progressive and staunch Israel critic Abdul El-Sayed from defeating pro-Israel Rep. Haley Stevens in the state’s hotly contested Democratic Senate primary.
And in Missouri, AIPAC is spending $2 million to block Israel-critical Cori Bush’s comeback bid. This comes after the group uncorked $9 million last cycle to unseat her.
“There’s a high level of discomfort in the Jewish community,” said Sam Lauter, founding member of Democratic Majority for Israel, which has endorsed Stevens and Bush’s opponent, Rep. Wesley Bell (D-Mo.), but hasn’t spent money on advertising.
If El-Sayed and Bush score victories, he said, “it does mean that my community is going to have to reassess how we’re approaching this battle, reassess our role in the party itself.”
Tuesday’s primaries represent a fork-in-the-road moment for pro-Israel Democrats. Groups like AIPAC and DMFI have waded into Democratic primaries this cycle with mixed results. Progressives have scored wins in New York, New Jersey, Colorado, Pennsylvania and Illinois in part by capitalizing on voters’ negative attitudes toward Israel, in some cases toppling longtime incumbents who were more Israel-friendly, while also falling short in some races.
Michigan and Missouri mark one of progressives’ last opportunities to cement a foothold in the party ahead of November. If Stevens and Bell lose on Tuesday, some Jewish Democrats worry their defeats could represent a tipping point for the Democratic Party, completely reshuffling the political landscape ahead of a general-election fight in which both chambers of Congress hang in the balance — and rendering many pro-Israel Democrats politically orphaned.
“It makes it very uncomfortable for elected Jewish Democrats like myself to wonder, when every other thing is about, you know, Israel and Jews, what’s my place in this party?” said Michigan state Rep. Noah Arbit, founder of the Michigan Democratic Jewish Caucus. “Can I see myself in this party? Can I continue to feel comfortable being elected on the Democratic Party line?”
Patrick Dorton, a spokesperson for United Democracy Project, insisted pro-Israel Democrats “are here to stay.”
“We are not going to let pro-Israel voices in the Democratic Party be silenced,” he said. “We are going to make sure that pro-Israel voices are heard in the primary process, this year and in the future.”
The race for Michigan Senate and Missouri’s 1st District quickly turned into referendums on the party’s once unwavering support for the longtime U.S. ally and AIPAC’s highly controversial interventions in Democratic primaries. Bush’s campaign has accused Bell of “abandoning” Missourians and “jetting off to Israel with AIPAC,” while El-Sayed has attacked Stevens for aligning herself“with AIPAC and Republicans to continue to fund a war machine.”
Bush’s campaign did not respond to a request for comment. In a statement, El-Sayed campaign spokesperson Roxie Richner said the campaign has sought to unify Michigan residents “from all walks of life — across ages, races and faiths — around getting money out of politics, money back in pockets, and Medicare for All.”
Both races are a callback to earlier fights over Israel that have divided the Democratic Party and that accelerated in the wake of the Israel-Hamas war. Nearly 60 percent of Democrats believe the party is too supportive of Israel, an AP-NORC survey from June found, an increase from 45 percent of Democrats who felt similarly in January 2024.
Bell’s primary win over Bush in 2024 was one of AIPAC’s biggest wins last cycle. Israel-critical Democrats in Michigan, meanwhile, hammered Biden and later Vice President Kamala Harris for not prioritizing Gaza in their campaigns.
“That felt like people were upset with the war in Gaza,” Andy Schor, mayor of Lansing, Michigan, and one of the highest-ranking Jewish elected officials in the state. “Now it feels like these candidates are anti-Israel.”
Richner countered that El-Sayed “has continuously emphasized the importance of differentiating between criticisms of the Israeli government and Judaism and the Jewish people.”
“He understands that the fights against antisemitism and islamophobia are intertwined, and as Michigan’s next U.S. Senator, will work to stamp both out,” she said in a statement.
The Michigan race also marks a unique litmus test for pro-Israel Democrats in a purple state that is poised to have an outsized role in selecting the party’s next presidential nominee and, eventually, the next occupant of the White House. The Democratic National Committee put forward a proposal earlier this month to make Michigan one of six early contests in 2028.
Dennis Bernard, the Jewish Federation of North America’s national chair of government relations, said an El-Sayed victory would be the most compelling evidence yet that “there is a strong anti-Israel, antisemitic streak within the Democratic Party, and it’s growing, and it’s growing outside of just hard blue states.” Bernard, who has historically supported politicians on both sides of the aisle, is backing Stevens in Tuesday’s primary.
Still, Michigan’s Senate race has divided the Jewish community. Some leading Jewish activists are backing El-Sayed — including progressive former Rep. Andy Levin, who lost a primary to Stevens in 2022 that was a proxy war between rival pro-Israel groups J Street and AIPAC.
“I think that Abdul El-Sayed feels that he has an opportunity and a responsibility to be a leader in the United States of the movement for Palestinian rights, and so he modulates his politics around this very carefully,” Levin said.
Arbit, the Michigan state representative, said he’s resigned to Israel’s diminishing relevance in the party ahead of the next presidential primary, regardless of how Tuesday’s primaries play out.
“I find it very hard to imagine that we’re going to have a candidate who is quote-unquote pro-Israel. I don’t know how that works,” he said of the 2028 presidential primary. “I just think the party grassroots is so poisoned against the state of Israel.”
Shia Kapos contributed reporting.
Alaska GOP Sen. Dan S. Sullivan can’t shake his same-name challenger.
Retired teacher Dan J. Sullivan punched a ticket out of the state’s top-four, all-party primary early Wednesday morning. He could now play spoiler in a high-stakes Senate clash between the Republican senator and former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola that could help swing control of the upper chamber.
Republicans fought and failed to keep Dan J. Sullivan off the primary ballot, arguing he was a Democratic plant designed to boost Peltola. Both Dan J. Sullivan and Peltola’s campaign have denied any coordination.
The senator’s allies have already taken steps to mitigate the second Sullivan’s potential vote siphoning, in some cases running ads using the senator’s middle initial to help differentiate between the same-named candidates.
Supporters of the state’s ranked-choice voting system, which kicks in for the general election, argue the process helps curtail the spoiler effect. But the presence of other candidates could still skew the results of the battleground race. Outside groups flooded the primary with more than $2 million to boost myriad fringe candidates — and could do so again ahead of November.
It’s not smooth sailing for Peltola, either, as she wages an uphill battle to flip a red seat in a state President Donald Trump won by 13 percentage points in 2024. She recently replaced her campaign manager in a staffing shakeup ahead of the primary, among other internal moves.
President Donald Trump notched a major win on Tuesday night. Republicans in battlegrounds wonder if it was the best use of his time and money.
Sen. Darline Graham defeated Rep. Ralph Norman in South Carolina’s snap Senate GOP runoff, handing Trump a revitalizing win after several of his endorsed candidates fell in recent primaries.
It was a victory that Graham, a complete political unknown six weeks ago, could not have pulled off without Trump’s steadfast support, underscoring just how much his influence still matters among the Republican electorate in the deeply conservative state.
But South Carolina’s Senate seat will not dictate the balance of power in Washington, and GOP strategists working on critical swing state campaigns are eager for Trump to finally direct his attention to them.
“The message coming out of this is that obviously the president’s support is still super powerful. The president’s operation still has the ability to move the needle in a lot of these states,” said a Republican strategist working on several battleground races, including in Georgia, who was granted anonymity to speak candidly about Trump’s involvement. “Hopefully, this is a sign of things to come that the president is willing to get involved and really start to move the needle in some other places that obviously matter a little bit more than South Carolina.”
Trump’s persistent backing of Graham defined the race: He championed her appointment to her late brother Sen. Lindsey Graham’s seat, he coaxed her into the race with an early endorsement, stood by her as she stumbled on the debate stage, and flew down to Myrtle Beach for a rare political rally that few of his chosen candidates have enjoyed this cycle. MAGA Inc., Trump’s behemoth super PAC, even spent a slice of highly sought after cash from its $400 million stockpile in the closing days of the race.
And yet, the president hasn’t taken a meaningful step into the states that will matter in a few short months — even as battleground Republicans have been clamoring for him to spend his MAGA Inc. money.
“It’s now or never. It’s put up or shut up time, and it’s really time to start to see if he’s going to get serious,” the GOP strategist said. “You’ve got September and October to really move the needle here, and it just doesn’t seem like there’s any sense of urgency, or like we understand that we are down big in some of these states.”
During her victory speech in Columbia, Graham acknowledged Trump’s heavy hand: “Our victory would not have been possible without you, and we are truly grateful,” Graham said of the president. “South Carolina is truly Trump country.”
Norman’s take on the president’s participation was not as rosy: “The president got involved. He has that right. That’s his prerogative,” Norman said in his concession speech Tuesday, prompting jeers from the crowd at his election night watch party. “Y’all,” he continued, “his policies are good. I never understood why he got in this race. It is what it is, and I’ll accept it.”
Norman’s bewilderment reflected several national and South Carolina Republicans’ confusion as to why the president would expend energy for the safe Republican seat when his MAGA allies like Mike Collins in Georgia, scandal-plagued Ken Paxton in Texas and Michael Whatley in North Carolina are facing tough Senate battles against Democratic opponents.
“There’s the principle,” said a North Carolina-based GOP strategist who was granted anonymity to speak candidly about the battleground picture. “If you’re not Trump and you have these people shoved down your throat, you’re like, ‘Okay, are you gonna help?’”
The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Some Republicans are worried that though Trump helped power Graham’s win, the president’s overall unpopularity may be more of a curse than a boon in any highly competitive battleground state. A series of Trump-backed candidates lost gubernatorial and congressional primaries in recent weeks, including in Georgia and Iowa.
Republicans overall are facing a tough election environment given the ongoing and unpopular war in Iran, backlash to the administration’s highly-visible deportation agenda and voters’ persistent cost of living concerns.
“You have a president and maybe even a vice president that are just so underwater politically in the polls, that they might be a help by not intervening,” said Matthew Bartlett, a GOP strategist and former State Department official in the first Trump administration.
Still, Trump swept the battlegrounds in 2024, and his ability to boost Graham despite her foreign policy debate gaffe and questions about her political inexperience serves as a reminder of his electoral prowess to campaign officials.
The question remains when — or if — he’ll throw them a presidential life raft.
“I wouldn’t count on the money if I were in these states,” said the North Carolina-based Republican strategist. “He still could. I’m just saying, I wouldn’t count on it. We’re not dealing with somebody that’s, you know, super calculated in the way they plan.”
For months, Republicans across the country have watched on as the president has continued to amass a remarkable pile of cash — and many have implored him to empty his pockets in their races. The president told reporters last week that he’ll spend “a lot of that money” to boost “Republican candidates that I think are good,” without being specific.
However, what some saw as a distraction from the greater Republican cause this year, others read as the first few drops of Trump’s cash flood.
“If they’re going to spend 800 grand in South Carolina, they’re going to spend in the midterms,” said Matt Mackowiak, a Republican strategist based in Texas who worked on Sen. John Cornyn’s failed reelection campaign and is now backing the GOP ticket. “It signals they’re going to make a substantial investment in the midterms because you don’t make an 800-grand investment in South Carolina and say, ‘Yeah, we’re going to let everybody do their own thing.’ This was in some ways a test case.”
Trump’s targeted support for Graham — the kind that some Republicans are banking on to shift the dial later this fall — paid off for her in dividends on election night. Horry County, the site of the president’s marquee rally with the candidate late last week, resoundingly broke for Graham.
Trump’s backing also helped open the door to endorsements from key South Carolina Republican figures, including fellow GOP Sen. Tim Scott, who helped Graham shore up support in his Charleston-area home base, Gov. Henry McMaster, and two members of the state’s congressional delegation, Reps. Russell Fry and William Timmons.
Outside spending also proved crucial to Graham’s success. Her campaign and its allies outspent Norman by more than $5 million in the runoff alone, according to AdImpact.
Trump’s allies took a victory lap after Graham’s victory was confirmed Tuesday evening.
“The power of the Trump endorsement is alive and well in South Carolina,” said Mike Hahn, a GOP strategist involved in the midterms. “A good opening salvo for the team at MAGA Inc. and the president ahead of the midterms.”
Former state Sen. Mike Mazzei narrowly won Oklahoma’s GOP gubernatorial primary Tuesday, boosted by President Donald Trump’s endorsement, a significant personal loan and a host of outside money.
His defeat of Oklahoma Attorney General Gentner Drummond on Tuesday is a victory for Republican leaders in the state and Trump, who had endured a recent string of uncharacteristic primary losses, particularly in gubernatorial primaries. The president’s preferred picks for governor in Wyoming, Iowa, Georgia, Minnesota and South Carolina all lost their races, and a trio of Trump-backed House candidates fell in Michigan and Florida earlier this month.
Trump endorsed Mazzei in May, ahead of the state’s open primary, but the race remained competitive. Drummond beat Mazzei by 0.3 percentage points in the first round on June 16, forcing Tuesday’s runoff. And the race was defined by massive levels of self-funding in a historically expensive primary for the state.
Mazzei loaned his campaign $11.6 million, while Drummond loaned himself $3 million, according to campaign finance records. But Mazzei was also aided by outside money: The conservative group Club For Growth spent $8 million on TV ads boosting Mazzei and attacking Drummond, per the tracking firm AdImpact.
Ahead of the runoff, the state senator earned endorsements from Gov. Kevin Stitt and Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin, who represented Oklahoma in Congress for 13 years.
Mazzei served in the state senate for 12 years before being term-limited in 2016. He joined Stitt’s administration for a year in 2019 as budget secretary. He’s the overwhelming favorite in a general election matchup against Democratic state Rep. Cyndi Munson in a state Trump won by 34 points in 2024.
-
The Josh Fourrier Show2 years agoDOOMSDAY: Trump won, now what?
-
Politics2 years agoFormer ‘Squad’ members launching ‘Bowman and Bush’ YouTube show
-
The Dictatorship2 years agoLuigi Mangione acknowledges public support in first official statement since arrest
-
Uncategorized2 years ago
Bob Good to step down as Freedom Caucus chair this week
-
Politics2 years agoFormer Kentucky AG Daniel Cameron launches Senate bid
-
The Dictatorship2 years agoPete Hegseth’s tenure at the Pentagon goes from bad to worse
-
Politics2 years agoBlue Light News’s Editorial Director Ryan Hutchins speaks at Blue Light News’s 2025 Governors Summit
-
The Dictatorship12 months agoMike Johnson sums up the GOP’s arrogant position on military occupation with two words