Politics

Poll: Trump’s economic message isn’t breaking through

Published

5 months ago

May 29, 2026

Americans still aren’t sold on President Donald Trump’s economy — and many say the Iran war is making their financial situation worse.

Six months after The Blue Light News Poll first found deep concern among voters, new results show Trump has been unable to improve their perception of the high cost of living and who is to blame.

In November, nearly half of Americans said the cost of living is the worst they can remember — as of May, 53 percent still say the same. In November, 46 percent of Americans said Trump holds full or most of the responsibility for the state of the economy — as of May, that number is virtually unchanged.

Now, a plurality say their finances have only worsened since Trump took office, including 18 percent of the president’s 2024 voters, according to the May survey conducted by Public First.

The findings underscore how Trump has struggled to find a winning midterm message on affordability, even as the economy remains healthy by many indicators. The president’s tendency to go off script, despite his allies’ urging, has further muddied GOP efforts. And the unpopular Iran war has Republicans barrelling toward November with voters’ financial fears remaining a stubborn, lingering political liability.

A majority of Americans say Trump has not done enough to protect them from the economic fallout from the war, which has caused gas, food and flight prices to spike. More than 60 percent — including majorities of both Trump voters and people who backed former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024 — say the war has made things more expensive for them overall.

“A major challenge for [Joe] Biden was that, as prices rose and worries about inflation took hold, the response from the Biden administration was that inflation was ‘transitory,’” said Kevin Madden, a longtime GOP communications strategist.

“Trump faces a similar predicament. As prices rise due to tariff and trade policies and global conflict, the response that it’s a hoax or not true is just a very discordant message given that so many voters are feeling a budget pinch right now,” he added.

The Iran war is increasingly overshadowing the Trump administration’s domestic economic messaging, as officials often get peppered with questions about oil and gas prices and battleground Republicans grow anxious that the extended conflict could hurt their chances in key Senate and House races this November.

The survey shows that Republicans’ attempts to place the economic blame on Biden aren’t resonating: Just 28 percent of Americans say the former president holds full or most of the responsibility for the current U.S. economy, compared with nearly half who lay much of the blame at Trump’s feet.

“The sooner the war winds down, the better for Trump when it comes to prospects in the midterms because the price of gas is so intricate in the notion of affordability,” said one Florida-based Republican strategist granted anonymity to speak candidly.

White House spokesperson Kush Desai said the president “has been clear about short-term disruptions” and is focused on implementing his economic agenda.

“As traffic in the Strait of Hormuz normalizes again, Americans will again see gas prices plummet, real wages grow, inflation cool, and trillions in investments continue pouring in,” Desai said in a statement.

Trump voters are far more likely than Harris voters to say that the president has taken sufficient action to curb costs from the Iran conflict, but even his own supporters are split: 43 percent say he has done enough, while 43 percent say he has not.

It’s a stark sign that mirrors broader divides within the GOP over the war, as some conservatives, such as media personality Tucker Carlson and former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, have been vocal in their opposition to the conflict.

Still, Trump voters are much more willing than Harris voters — and Americans broadly — to say the U.S. should continue its involvement in Iran even if it increases costs, highlighting the trust they maintain in the president. A 42 percent plurality of Trump voters chose this option, compared with 11 percent of Harris voters and 22 percent of all respondents.

But Thursday brought more disappointing news for the administration: Inflation has climbed to its highest level since Trump returned to office, and the economy grew at a slower pace in the first quarter of the year than previously estimated, the government reported.

Nearly half of Americans still blame inflation for the overall affordability challenges they are facing, the survey finds, even as roughly one-quarter say conflicts overseas are the main reason for their challenges.

Strong majorities of respondents say the prices of everyday items — such as gas, food and medicine — have somewhat or greatly increased in their area since Trump took office, including most of the people who voted for him.

Republican strategists argue that a resolution to the war could improve Americans’ perceptions of the economy, but the longer the conflict drags on, the more difficult it may become for the party to reverse voters’ views. Economic experts have already warned that gas prices will remain elevated for at least several more months as the global economy reels from the conflict.

“If you can get the gas prices back to pre-conflict levels, and the people in those 16 to 18 House districts that are going to decide this race, are feeling good in three or four states, then you’re in a much better shape than a lot of people think,” the GOP strategist said.

Politics

NYC high school faces backlash over ‘intifada’ post

Published

6 hours ago

October 21, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

Stuyvesant High School is facing backlash over a school-based socialist youth group's social media post.

INTIFADA FLARE UP: One of New York City’s most prestigious public high schools is facing backlash because a school-based socialist youth group co-signed a social media post declaring “Intifada Until Victory!”

The Young Democratic Socialists of America chapter of Stuyvesant High School — along with YDSA chapters at Hunter College, the New School, City College and Lehman College — all signed onto an Oct. 8 Instagram post that accused the Democratic Socialists of America’s New York City chapter of silencing student activists who wanted to protest Mayor Zohran Mamdani over Israel.

The groups accused the democratic socialist mayor of betraying the Palestinian cause and blasted his decision to keep NYPD Commissioner Jessica Tisch in her position, referring to her as a “Zionist billionaire.”

The term intifada — which refers to violent uprisings against Jews in Israel — is viewed by many Jews as a call to violence against them.

Moshe Spern, president of United Jewish Teachers — an advocacy group representing Jewish teachers and students across the city — is demanding the posts be removed immediately and that the YDSA group provide a public apology to the school community.

“NYC public schools have seen hundreds of antisemitic and anti-Israel incidents since October 7, 2023,” he wrote in an email yesterday to Stuyvesant Principal Seung Yu and New York City Schools Chancellor Kamar Samuels. “When a school-recognized club amplifies this rhetoric, it risks contributing to a hostile environment.”

In the missive, Spern invoked Title VI — the federal law that bans discrimination based on race, shared ancestry and national origin — and demanded a review of the YDSA chapter’s charter, faculty adviser and recent activities for compliance.

Spern also cited a chancellor’s regulation that states that student clubs operate under the principal’s supervision and must remain consistent with the school’s educational goals.

Yu did not respond to requests for comment. Mamdani’s Department of Education also did not respond to Playbook.

Spern told Playbook today that he has yet to receive a response from Yu.

“To flat out ignore it is extremely irresponsible,” he said.

The NYC-DSA defended the organization.

“We support the right to organize,” NYC-DSA co-Chair Gustavo Gordillo said in a statement. “NYC-DSA did not organize or endorse this particular rally, but red scare tactics have never been effective tools for engaging with student movements.”

The social media uproar is the latest flashpoint in ongoing tensions in the city over Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel and the war that followed.

Mamdani, a longtime critic of Israel, was reluctant to condemn the term “globalize the intifada” on the campaign trail last year before finally saying he will not use the term. He also drew bipartisan backlash over his statement marking the third anniversary of the attack. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu labeled the mayor an antisemite, which Mamdani has denied.

Mamdani, though, has also simultaneously faced backlash from pro-Palestinian activists who accused him of betraying the Palestinian cause by retaining Tisch, who’s Jewish and a self-described Zionist. Those critics have also criticized him for not doing enough to prevent local synagogues from holding events that promote land sales in Israel, some of them in the occupied West Bank. — Madina Touré

From the Capitol

A new Quinnipiac University poll has Hochul leading GOP challenger Bruce Blakeman by 14 points.

Q’S LATEST: Gov. Kathy Hochul has a 55-41 lead over Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman, a Quinnipiac University poll released this afternoon found.

That 14-point advantage is narrower than the 19-point lead Quinnipiac gave Hochul last month. But it’s more in line with the numbers from other pollsters: Marist found Hochul up by 11 two weeks ago, Emerson had Hochul up 12 in early October, and Siena measured her lead at 9 points last month.

Despite Hochul’s lead, the Q Poll concluded Blakeman has an enthusiasm advantage. A total of 65% of his backers were “very enthusiastic” to support him, while only 33% of Hochul’s supporters said the same. — Bill Mahoney

FROM THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL

Democratic House candidate Brad Lander was detained by Israeli security officials while harvesting olives in the West Bank.

LANDER DETAINED: Democratic congressional candidate Brad Lander was detained today by Israeli security officials while harvesting olives in the West Bank.

Lander, a self-described liberal Zionist and critic of Israel, said he went to the West Bank as part of the “Protect the Harvest” coalition to support Palestinians gathering crops.

Rabbi Jill Jacobs, CEO of T’ruah, a progressive rabbinical organization, said she was also detained Wednesday, along with “approximately 80 American, Israeli, and international volunteers providing a protective presence for Palestinian farmers.” According to a press release from T’ruah, there were “approximately two hours of peaceful harvesting” until “Israeli forces declared the area a closed military zone” and detained them to transport them to a police station, despite the volunteers agreeing to leave.

An Israeli military official told Blue Light News that officers from the Israel Defense Forces and Border Police, along with local police, arrived at the scene because Palestinians did not submit a request to coordinate harvesting in that area, which is required ahead of time. The official added that the farm in question “requires only a small number of harvesters to collect its produce” and “the security establishment views the arrival of dozens of activists as an act intended solely to provoke, which undermines the harvesting process.”

Lander was released “once the matter was brought to our attention” that he is a congressional candidate, the official said.

Lander confirmed in a social media post that he was released with a “warning” because of his “public profile.”

IN OTHER NEWS

— MUSK: Elon Musk has spent more than $500,000 to support Rep. Mike Lawler’s reelection bid against Democratic challenger Cait Conley. (Gothamist)

— STOP: New York City deployed 600 red light cameras to intersections, the maximum number allowed under state law. (New York Daily News)

— MEASLES: In the wake of a measles crisis, the state Health Department remains locked in a court battle with Amish schools over religious vaccine exemptions. (The New York Times)

Missed this morning’s New York Playbook? We forgive you. Read it here.

Politics

The GOP has a midterm messaging problem. Ramaswamy isn’t helping

Published

17 hours ago

October 21, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

The GOP has a midterm messaging problem. Ramaswamy isn’t helping

lead image

Politics

Why Republicans’ massive cash advantage is evaporating on the airwaves

Published

18 hours ago

October 21, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

Republicans are banking on a massive cash edge to help save their majority in Congress. But they are losing much of that advantage in an important arena: broadcast TV ads.

Republicans have spent $677 million on those ads across 10 key Senate battleground states, compared to $479 million by the Democrats. But the GOP’s money isn’t going nearly as far because they’re more dependent on outside groups that pay much higher rates than candidates.

The disparity has helped Democrats stay in the fight for Senate control amid an onslaught of GOP outside spending.

In Ohio’s Senate race, Republican groups make up 63% of the $218 million spent. But in spite of their nearly two-to-one spending advantage, they make up just over half of ads that are on the airwaves, according to data from the tracking service AdImpact. In Texas, Republicans have outspent Democrats by a three-to-one margin, but have aired just 58% of the ads. And in Michigan, the GOP accounts for 60% of the spending but just over half of the ads.

A large part of this discrepancy comes down to the mechanics of broadcast advertising. Candidates, and now political parties thanks to a recent Supreme Court ruling, are entitled to significantly lower rates. That has allowed Democratic candidates — who have posted bonkers fundraising hauls — to offset much of the GOP advantage in super PACs. Republican Senate candidates, on the other hand, struggled overall with their fundraising. And some GOP outside groups bought their ad time later, when it was even more expensive.

“There are limitations to the impact of ‘big money’ in politics,” said Sean Cooksey, a Republican former FEC commissioner. “It’s a good demonstration of the economics of campaign fundraising. Hard dollars really just go so much further.”

The disparity also shows “the Republican overreliance on outside groups,” said Ian Russell, a Democratic admaker.

“You get an eye-popping dollar amount, but it doesn’t actually translate into as many spots as you would think relative to a well-financed candidate,” Russell said. “[Republicans] were just hoping that they could spend their way out of everything that was going wrong for them. But the problem is, their issues run much deeper than a few ad buys can fix. Especially when you’ve got monster fundraising hauls from the Democratic side.”

Republicans in House and Senate races have long been more dependent on outside groups and megadonors, and for multiple cycles have seen their cash advantage undercut by fundraising strength from individual Democratic candidates. But that trend is particularly pronounced this year given the combination of Republican super PAC money and their candidates’ struggles.

In 2024, Republican outside groups spent only about 15% more than Democrats on TV ads across House and Senate general election contests, according to a Blue Light News analysis of AdImpact data. This cycle, GOP outside groups have spent 7% more.

In a few states, the discrepancy between dollars and airtime is less stark. Republicans account for 60% of the spending in Maine’s Senate race and an equal percentage of the ads, according to AdImpact. That’s in part because Sen. Susan Collins has outraised her Democratic opponent Troy Jackson over the whole cycle, although Jackson, who didn’t launch his campaign until July, raised far more in the third quarter.

The numbers show the shifting dynamics of campaign strategy after the Supreme Court opened the floodgates to more spending from parties by granting them the lower advertising rate.

Republicans have been faster to take advantage of the new rules: Major coordinated spending efforts from the NRSC and RNC have helped their side significantly this cycle.

Republicans have far outspent Democrats on Senate party-coordinated Senate advertising, $90 million to $34.6 million across TV, radio and digital ads, according to data from AdImpact.

“If I were the leader of either party, I would say you shouldn’t give a dollar, you shouldn’t give a single penny to these super PACs until you’ve maxed out to the party committee,” Cooksey said.

Some Republicans say that strategic errors have contributed to erasing their cash edge. A number of GOP strategists have also privately griped that MAGA Inc. — one of the major outside groups backing their candidates — bought TV airtime too late, forcing them to pay even higher rates and further draining resources and increasing the price of reaching voters. Republicans fretted for months about whether Trump’s well-financed super PAC, MAGA Inc., would get involved. The group has since spent heavily, but only launched its first general election ad buys in September.

“There is no question MAGA Inc. should have bought ads earlier in the cycle,” said one national GOP operative who was granted anonymity to discuss party strategy, noting that rates across the country increase as Election Day nears. Other top GOP outside groups, like the Senate Leadership Fund and the Congressional Leadership Fund, made their early advertising reservations much earlier in the cycle than MAGA Inc.

Trump allies waved away that criticism. A person familiar with the Trump operation’s midterm planning, granted anonymity to discuss strategy, said it’s “indisputable that the spending from the Trump political effort has kept us competitive in many Senate races.”

MAGA Inc. declined to comment.

Still, GOP outside groups are utilizing their cash advantage in some underappreciated ways.

Republican super PACs have massively outspent their Democratic counterparts on mail — roughly $157 million to $35 million for the general election — according to a Blue Light News analysis of independent expenditure filings submitted to the Federal Election Commission. That’s led by a whopping $44 million in spending on mail across 24 races from the Trump-aligned No Going Back PAC, along with $23.8 million across 20 races from Elon Musk’s America PAC.

GOP-aligned super PACs have also spent more than Democratic ones on phone calls and text messages, the data shows.