Politics
Poll: Trump wants the midterms to be about him. That could backfire.
President Donald Trump is asking voters to “pretend” he is on the ballot. That might backfire.
New results from The POLITICO Poll show that Democratic midterm voters are more motivated to oppose the president than Republican voters are to support him. Many Republican voters also aren’t looking for blind loyalty to Trump in the midterms: Half say they’d rather their local candidate aim to win, even if it means speaking out against the president.
It’s not uncommon for voters in the party out of power to be more motivated in a midterm year. But the lopsided findings are an ominous sign for Trump, who has fundamentally reshaped the GOP over the past decade and has once again staked his brand — and political capital — on delivering wins for Republicans in November.
With less than two weeks before the election, the poll suggests Republicans are pragmatic, and care more about preventing a blue wave than standing by Trump. And in a year when voter frustration over high pricesappears poised to play a major role, that distinction could prove consequential.
The poll, conducted by London-based firm PF Global, reveals the extent to which frustration with Trump is driving Democrats: Nearly half of Democratic midterm voters say they will be voting “mainly to oppose President Trump,” compared to just 38% of Republican voters who say they will be voting mainly to show support for Trump.
Instead, a plurality of Republican midterm voters — 48% — say their main motivation when casting a vote is to show support for a local candidate. Only 37% of Democratic voters agree.
“[Trump is] 100% motivating Democrats more than Republicans,” said Doug Heye, a longtime GOP strategist. “That may have been the case regardless, but it’s even more true with words like ‘diesel’ and ‘Iran’ now a part of everyday political discussion.”
Half of Republicans think candidates have a better chance of winning if they align themselves with Trump rather than breaking from him, compared to just 30% who believe candidates would have a better chance of winning if they break away.
But half of Republicans also accept their candidates speaking out against the president if that’s what they need to do to win their own election. That’s compared with 37% who say candidates should remain loyal to the president and support his agenda, even if it means risking a loss.
On top of that, majorities of Republican voters say Trump himself should give candidates some room to break with him on specific policy issues to win elections.
If it helps GOP candidates’ chances of winning, they said, the president should allow for disagreement on the speed of AI development, the cost of living, and whether the war in Iran was a good decision. That holds true for pluralities or even majorities of Trump 2024 voters who self-identify as part of the “MAGA” movement across each policy area, suggesting that even his most loyal voters want the president to let candidates distance themselves if it can help them win.
“President Trump is the unequivocal leader, best messenger, and unmatched motivator for the Republican Party, and he is committed to maintaining Republican majorities in Congress,” said White House spokesperson Davis Ingle.
RNC spokesperson Natalie Baldassarre said “Blue Light News didn’t need to conduct a poll to know that Democrats are motivated by their hatred for President Trump and Republicans.” She added that the GOP is “running on actual accomplishments like cutting taxes and securing the border,” while saying Democrats have made “investigations, obstruction, and impeachment” their campaign platform.
Still, the tension is playing out in real time as Republican candidates locked in competitive races walk a tightrope between maintaining Trump’s support — and that of his MAGA base — without alienating critical moderate and independent voters. They’re especially under pressure as Trump hits the campaign trail in battlegrounds and red states, with several candidates having to quietly make calculations whether it will hurt them politically to appear next to him.
“I think Republicans … are stuck choosing which finger to cut off,” said a national GOP operative, granted anonymity to speak candidly about the midterm landscape. “There is no good answer.”
In Iowa, where voter frustration over some of Trump’s marquee policies, including tariffs and rising costs stemming from the Iran war, has mounted, Republican candidates have sought to create some distance from the president. Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson, the party’s Senate nominee, has said the war needs to be “brought to a successful and immediate end.” She also skipped a rally Vice President JD Vance held in the state last month.
Several other GOP candidates have also skipped Trump rallies in their home states, and many have grown increasingly wary of mentioning Trump in ads, including in red states that over the last few months have suddenly started to look competitive. In battleground Georgia, GOP gubernatorial nominee Rick Jackson has carefully navigated his relationship with Trump, avoiding public breaks with the president on policy but still limiting direct references to him in campaign ads and on the debate stage.
“I don’t know that Trump coming [to Georgia] helps Republicans more so than it excites Democrats, especially in a wave election year,” said Jason Shepherd, a former Cobb County GOP chair who is supporting Jackson.
That leaves Republican candidates in a tricky position: Their voters are willing to accept breaking from Trump if victory is on the line, but voters — and candidates — won’t know what will cost them their race until it’s too late.
“There’s no reason to gratuitously attack the White House and make an enemy,” the national GOP operative said. “But the end game here is to get reelected, and if they have to get reelected, but the president’s annoyed at them for a period of time, they’ll get over it.”
While Republican candidates balance loyalty to Trump with the possibility of breaking away on certain issues, Democratic midterm voters remain highly motivated to vote against Trump’s agenda.
Even Trump’s endorsement of a Republican candidate seems to influence Democrats more than Republicans: Roughly 70% of Democratic midterm voters say his endorsement would make them less likely to support a candidate, compared to 55% of Republican midterm voters who say the endorsement would make them more likely to support a candidate.
“The midterm elections are about anger management and failed expectations,” said North Carolina based GOP strategist Paul Shumaker. “A lot of Republicans and swing voters feel like their expectations have not been met in helping address their economic concerns.”
Alec Hernández and Alisa Vasquez contributed to this story.
Can Angie Nixon prove Democrats can win in Florida?
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Democrats’ top Senate-focused super PAC will report raising $354 million through Oct. 14 — including roughly $88 million in the first two weeks of the month— as Democrats race to seize control of the upper chamber in the election’s closing weeks.
Senate Majority PAC shared their fundraising totals, which are higher than any previous cycle, with Blue Light News ahead of a Federal Election Commission deadline later Thursday. The super PAC had $32.7 million in the bank as of Oct. 14.
“This is already the strongest cycle in Senate Majority PAC’s history, and it’s arriving exactly when it counts,” SMP spokesperson Lauren French said in a statement. “We’re on the air across the battleground through Election Day, and every dollar is going toward beating price-gouging Republicans and winning back the Senate.”
That’s more than the $306 million SMP raised in the 2024 campaign cycle, according to FEC filings, its previous high.
SMP is still being outraised by the Senate Leadership Fund, the GOP’s top Senate super PAC, in large part thanks to billionaire Elon Musk and other Republican megadonors. Musk gave $158 million to SLF in the third quarter, according to its most recent FEC report, and the super PAC in turn sent that money to Texas’ Senate race in order to boost the scandal-plagued GOP nominee Ken Paxton.
As of Sept. 30, SLF had raised more than $423 million for the cycle.
Democrats have been able to offset much of Republicans’ super PAC cash advantage on the airwaves because of stronger candidate fundraising.
But Republicans still have the advantage of a favorable map — and more outside money — as they hope to maintain control of at least one chamber of Congress next month.
GOODBYE HORSES: New York City isn’t horsing around anymore.
The City Council voted overwhelmingly today to abolish the Big Apple’s horse carriage industry, handing a historic win to animal rights activists who’ve pushed to end the tourist attraction for decades.
The vote doesn’t mean the industry sunsets overnight, though. The bill enacting the ban — which passed the Council with 40 yays, 7 nays and 2 abstentions — allows the roughly 200 carriage drivers who shuttle tourists around Central Park to continue operating until June 2028, when the industry will be reined into a legal halt officially.
Council Speaker Julie Menin, who started making the legislation’s passage a priority over the summer, told reporters before the vote that the carriage horse-related June death of Romanch Mahajan, an 18-year-old Indian tourist, was the last straw. But she also cited a long record of horses dying in the streets as part of the reason for the bill finally crossing the finish line.
“This has been a long time coming,” she said.
Mayor Zohran Mamdani — who initially withheld support for the measure over labor protection concerns — got behind it earlier this month, sealing the deal for it to become law. He hasn’t yet set a date for signing the bill.
Mamdani came on board after the Council modified the bill to give drivers pathways into other lines of work, and the phase-out period is key in that pursuit.
Under the bill, the city must create a workforce transition program under which drivers would, between now and 2028, receive career counseling as well as referrals to employment opportunities in both public and private sectors, including with the Metropolitan Transportation Authority and hospitality and tourism outfits. The bill would also prohibit drivers from sending their horses to slaughter or using them for carriage duties in another city where it’s allowed.
Horse carriage drivers and their supporters remain furious.
The Transport Workers Union, which advocates for carriage drivers, announced yesterday that it will file a lawsuit to block the ban, arguing it violates federal and state laws. The union is especially incensed that the bill doesn’t require the city to pay out drivers for the value of their carriage licenses — an omission lawyers for the TWU say flies in the face of the Fifth Amendment’s prohibition on government usurping private property without compensation.
Just as the Council was getting ready to vote, carriage supporters received backing from a somewhat unexpected source: President Donald Trump.
“So sad to see the beloved Central Park Horse-drawn Carriage Industry ending after over a Century, based largely on one tragic accident,” Trump wrote in a Truth Social post, referring to Mahajan. “When there is a car accident in the area, of which there are many, they don’t stop cars from entering the Park. So why would they stop the Carriages? It was a Great Tradition.”
Also before today’s vote, dozens of TWU reps and carriage drivers gathered outside City Hall to blast the Council for moving forward with the legislation. One of them brought along a ziplock bag of equine feces with a handwritten label on it reading: “This is horse sh*t.”
Christina Hansen, who’s been driving carriages for more than a decade, said she feels “disrespected” by the fact that the bill doesn’t guarantee she and her colleagues will be compensated for their licenses, which are worth hundreds of thousands of dollars.
“There are people who are owed money on medallions, who have planned families, had children, bought houses, taken out loans,” Hansen said. “What’s going to happen to them?”
Fellow carriage driver Danielle Slot, who voted for Mamdani in last year’s mayoral election, told Playbook she feels betrayed by his decision to back the bill without a provision mandating medallion reimbursement.
“You say you’re going after billionaires, but you’re really going after the underdogs,” Slot said. “These guys are hardworking, every single medallion is its own independent business, and many are immigrant owned. I expected better from Mamdani than to be a puppet.”
When asked why the bill only requires the city to “consider” medallion compensation as opposed to requiring it, Menin pointed a finger at the mayor. “To be clear, that was language that, you know, was worked out with the administration,” she told reporters at City Hall.
Dora Pekec, a spokesperson for the mayor, did not dispute Menin’s account, but said the administration is “in discussions” about compensation for medallion owners.
Mayors and Council speakers have tried to outlaw the industry since at least 2007. Momentum has built for a ban following tragic incidents in which horses have died or been severely injured in and around Central Park.
But until now, those efforts have fizzled, in part because of political pressure from the Transport Workers Union.
Carriage industry supporters argue that it can be reformed to ensure better safety standards without outlawing it outright. Council member Jim Gennaro, who introduced a bill that would do just that, said he believes Menin is at least partially politically motivated, pointing to the influence of NYCLASS, one of the main animal rights groups behind the push for a ban.
“NYCLASS does have the ability to turn winners and losers in mayoral elections and in borough elections, and I don’t think that fact has been lost on the speaker,” he said before voting against the bill. NYCLASS notably tanked former Council Speaker Christine Quinn’s 2013 mayoral bid by spending heavily against her because of her reluctance to support a carriage ban at the time.
Before the bill passed this afternoon, Gennaro tried to force through an amendment that would’ve delayed the phase-out deadline for the carriage industry until 2030, but it was rejected.
On the other side of the bitter debate, supporters of the bill gathered for a rally in City Hall Park before the vote. Among them were members of Mahajan’s family, who have been fighting for the legislation since his death.
“True justice means recognizing that these gentle, majestic horses do not belong on the congested asphalt,” Gaurav Mahajan, Romanch’s uncle, said. “By granting them the peaceful, green pastures they so deeply deserve, we fulfill Romanch’s purpose.” — Molly Reinmann and Chris Sommerfeldt
From the Capitol
RAILING AGAINST ALBANY: As Planet Albany denizens may have noticed, the Office of General Services this week began installing hand railings down the middle of several staircases near the state Senate chamber.
More railings are planned for the Assembly chamber-side stairs too. The project costs some $700,000, per WNYC’s Jon Campbell — further evidence that the most expensive government building construction project of the 19th century is never really done.
Aside from the cost, it’s an aesthetic change to a building teeming with history and one that is rarely altered.
Historian and former state Assemblymember Jack McEneny is taking the latest addition to the New York state Capitol in stride.
“I always thought it was only a matter of time that somebody would decide to do something,” he said in an interview when asked about the railings.
McEneny is an expert on the building and has given guided tours. He noted the staircases were not built with safety in mind.
“It was inevitable,” he said of adding the railings. “There’s a number of things that we did back two or three generations before that we wouldn’t do today.”
The stone staircases in the Capitol are indeed steep and very hard. (Fifteen years ago, your Playbook writer landed on his face while sprinting from the second to the third floor, necessitating an emergency dental intervention.)
The building, of course, has been altered over the years to fit the needs of people who work in it. That includes the installation of a small, hideaway elevator, which was used by a wheelchair-bound Franklin Roosevelt when he was governor.
“We require more things than we did at the time of its opening,” McEneny said. “We also have more attorneys who will sue.” — Nick Reisman
FROM THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL
BLAKEMAN GROUP GETS $2M: The main super PAC supporting Republican gubernatorial candidate Bruce Blakeman has received $2 million from a dark money group created to back Donald Trump’s 2024 presidential bid.
Securing American Greatness made the donation Tuesday to Strong and Safe New York, according to a filing submitted to the state Board of Elections. That group was formed by longtime Trump ally Taylor Budowich.
The pro-Blakeman group has now raised $10.3 million since July. That makes it the largest single independent expenditure group so far this election cycle, though a longer roster of outside spenders boosting Gov. Kathy Hochul means she’s still the beneficiary of more super PAC money. — Bill Mahoney
BROOKLYN BATTLE: The New York State Court of Appeals declined to weigh in Thursday on the long-running legal battle between factions of Brooklyn Democrats looking to lead the county party.
State Assemblymember Rodneyse Bichotte Hermelyn, the former chair of the party, appealed a lower court’s decision that an August vote to change the makeup of the organization’s executive committee was invalid. The lower court’s ruling remains in effect after the appeals court decided not to take it up.
The issue of if state Assemblymember Nikki Lucas, Bichotte Hermelyn’s successor of choice, was properly elected is still playing out in the courts. — Madison Fernandez
GOV AND MAYOR: Hochul’s campaign today released a video co-starring Mamdani as they prepare to hit the trail together for her reelection.
The video highlighted their shared push for expanding child care, visiting a family that benefits from the service.
Blue Light News first reported this morning that the governor and mayor will make two appearances together in the coming days with events on Friday and Sunday in Brooklyn. — Nick Reisman
FROM CITY HALL
MAM LEANS ON MENIN: Mamdani put public pressure on Menin today by showing up to a rally calling for the passage of labor legislation that she hasn’t thrown her weight behind yet — in part because of legal concerns.
The Delivery Protection Act, which was introduced by democratic socialist Council member Tiffany Cabán, would require Amazon and other retail giants to hire their own delivery workers. Currently, retailers can subcontract delivery employees via third party entities — a system that supporters of Cabán’s bill argue hampers workers’ ability to unionize and allows companies like Amazon to skirt accountability for labor violations.
Thirty-four of the Council’s 51 members have signed on as co-sponsors of Cabán’s bill, giving it a veto-proof majority of support, and a hearing was held on it in April. But Menin hasn’t scheduled a vote on the measure or offered support for it, even though she was a co-sponsor of a version of the legislation last year before becoming speaker.
Against that backdrop, Mamdani appeared on the steps of City Hall this morning with Cabán and other backers of the bill. In prepared remarks, he didn’t call out Menin by name, but blasted Amazon for pumping millions of dollars into lobbying against the bill.
“Corporations like Amazon operate on a model of exploitation, and they are spending millions of dollars to convince New Yorkers otherwise,” he said. “But it will not work because we are here together today to make clear that we are going to pass the Delivery Protection Act.”
By contrast, International Brotherhood of Teamsters General President Sean O’Brien, whose union represents Amazon workers, took direct aim at Menin, saying she must call a vote on the bill immediately. “Now is the time to get off your ass,” said O’Brien, who met privately with Mamdani before the rally.
When asked later in the day why she isn’t immediately moving forward with the bill, Menin cited concerns she said need to be worked out regarding potential job losses that could come from barring Amazon from relying on third party contractors. But she also said Mamdani’s own Law Department had reached out to the Council with “legal concerns” with the bill that needed to be resolved before a vote.
Menin didn’t elaborate on the legal issues. But a person with knowledge of the conversations between the Council and the Law Department, who was granted anonymity to discuss the ongoing talks, told Playbook one of the concerns is centered around ensuring the bill satisfies the high legal standard required for the city to mandate direct hiring in the private sector.
A Mamdani spokesperson didn’t immediately return a request for comment on the legal concerns.
Amazon spokesperson Steve Kelly pushed back against the criticism from Mamdani and O’Brien, saying the reliance on third parties “works because local entrepreneurs — people rooted in their communities — deliver a better experience.”
“And this model isn’t unusual — it’s how businesses and governments operate every day,” Kelly said. “New York City routinely contracts with outside companies to build its infrastructure, run its school buses, and deliver social services. This legislation would single out one industry for restrictions the city doesn’t even apply to its own operations.”
It’s a bit unusual for Mamdani to put the speaker on public notice like this over Council legislation. So far in his mayoral term, he hasn’t leaned heavily into legislative battles in the chamber over bills that are still under consideration. — Chris Sommerfeldt
IN OTHER NEWS
— DOUBLE AGENT: A campaign website for Thomas Kenny, an upstate Assembly candidate running on the Working Families Party ballot line, was created by an aide for Kenny’s ostensible opponent, Republican Allen Caruso. (New York Focus)
— ICE: Hochul’s office is pushing back against the detention of a state employee by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement. (Times Union)
— BUS FARE: The MTA is temporarily shutting down its bus fair enforcement teams following an altercation between a Brooklyn public school dean and fare inspectors. (Gothamist)
Missed this morning’s New York Playbook? We forgive you. Read it here.
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