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Place Your Bets: A 2026 Political Quiz

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In the spirit of the late William Safire’s long-running “Office Pool,” I bring you this column’s predictions for 2026 — from Senate races to unexpected congressional resignations, and even the future of a certain controversial new college football hire.

To make it easier, and have some fun, the soothsaying is multiple choice. Feel free to answer yourself, but worry not, accountability-seekers: My guesses will also be included under each question, along with some context. Yes, I’m borrowing an earlier era’s format. But the same can be said about end-of-year columns as is said for old yarns: no new stories, only new audiences.

So with hopes that this will be new to most and bring back fond memories for others, let’s get to the guessing: 16 for ’26.

1) What Washington landmark will President Donald Trump name after himself in conjunction with America’s 250th birthday?
A) Dulles Airport
B) The Dulles Airport “people-movers”
C) Arlington Memorial Bridge
D) The National Mall

2) Should Justice Samuel Alito retire, or another vacancy open on the Supreme Court, who will Trump appoint?
A) Jeanine Pirro
B) Andrew Oldham
C) Aileen Cannon
D) Ted Cruz

3) How soon after appointing his new “My Kevin” — Kevin Hassett or Kevin Warsh — as Federal Reserve Chair will Trump pressure him to lower interest rates?
A) In the Truth Social post announcing his selection
B) In his remarks at the White House event making it official
C) In response to shouted press questions at said White House event
D) Never — Trump will fulfill his New Year’s resolution respecting the traditional independence of the Fed

4) Now that he’s ordered strikes on targets in Iran, Nigeria, Syria, Somalia, Yemen and over the Caribbean, what country will Trump attack next?
A) Venezuela
B) Iran, again
C) Russia
D) Canada, and specifically the provincial capitol building in Toronto, should Premier Doug Ford run another tariff ad on American TV

5) Trump will endorse the winning candidate in which Republican primary?
A) Kentucky’s Fourth Congressional District, represented by Rep. Thomas Massie
B) Indiana State Senate District 37, represented by Rod Bray, the president pro tempore who defied Trump’s redistricting demands
C) U.S. Senate in Texas
D) U.S. Senate in Louisiana

6) For all of the attention Democrats are lavishing on the Texas Senate campaign, which other Senate races will have a closer final margin in the general election?
A) Maine
B) North Carolina
C) Ohio
D) Nebraska
E) All of the above

7) Which 2028 Democratic presidential hopeful will unwittingly hurt their candidacy by writing a book?
A) Gov. Gavin Newsom of California, by revealing he’s still doing self-discovery in his late-50s
B) Gov. Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, by revisiting the arson of the governor’s mansion so much that a tragedy becomes an origin story for a campaign — and without much subtlety
C) Former Vice President Kamala Harris, by confusing book tour crowds and enthusiasm for the notion that Democrats want to relive anything relating to 2024
D) Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, by showing, again, that he’s the smartest kid in class and affirming his future in appointive, not elective, politics

8) After next year’s election, the Trump-ordered redrawing of red state House maps and subsequent arms race will be seen as:
A) A political masterstroke
B) Having helped Democrats retake the House
C) The hinge point marking Trump’s slide from full control of the GOP
D) Close to a wash: Republicans picked up a few seats but between the Trump-imposed redraw and the new maps enacted after the Supreme Court guts the Voting Rights Act, the GOP got greedy and imperiled a few incumbents who lost in a difficult year after their previously-safe districts absorbed more Democrats.

9) Which House Republican, after Marjorie Taylor Greene, will resign before this session of Congress is over?
A) Rep. Don Bacon (Neb.)
B) Rep. Elise Stefanik (N.Y.)
C) Rep. Victoria Spartz (Ind.)
D) Rep. Cory Mills (Fla.)

10) By the end of 2026, which Republican will emerge as the best-positioned to challenge J.D. Vance for the 2028 GOP nomination?
A) Ted Cruz
B) Ivanka Trump
C) Tucker Carlson
D) Marco Rubio

11) The first major Trump appointee to leave his or her post will be:
A) Kash Patel
B) Kristi Noem
C) Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
D) Pete Hegseth

12) Who is finally able to convince Trump that Vladimir Putin has no interest in stopping the war and only wants to string Trump along?
A) Marco Rubio
B) Alex Stubb
C) Sylvester Stallone
D) Jared Kushner

13) What “known unknown” will take place in 2026?
A) China invades Taiwan
B) Russia finds a pretext to attack another neighbor
C) Lula and Trump begin to hit it off, and Trump offers the leftist leader his “total and complete endorsement” ahead of Brazil’s fall election
D) The west endures irregular but persistent terrorist attacks from non-state actors, like the massacre in Sydney

14) Democrats will flip the governorship of which state?
A) Florida
B) Ohio
C) Iowa
D) Alabama

15) NVDA shares will close 2026 at?
A) $300
B) $250
C) $175
D) $37 — the tech bubble finally bursts

16)  The results from season one of the Lane Kiffin Experiment at LSU will be:
A) Drama and a debacle of a year
B) Drama and just good enough of a season to make the playoffs
C) Drama and dominance, with the Tigers poised to win the national title
D) Incomplete because Lane’s interest in hot yoga takes him away from football and he leaves Baton Rouge to embark on a midlife-crisis Eat Pray Love — but with naan, Hinduism and a nice co-ed on the subcontinent

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Congress

Johnson, Trump set meeting with AI executives

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President Donald Trump and Speaker Mike Johnson will meet at the White House Tuesday with the executives of top artificial intelligence companies, according to two people granted anonymity to discuss private plans.

The meeting comes as Congress is coming under increasing pressure to put federal guardrails on AI development, as fears mount that technological advancements could soon spiral beyond human control.

Responding to some warnings that AI development was on track to cause human extinction by the end of the decade, Johnson has said he wants Trump and AI CEOs to “go in a big room, close the door and sort this out.” He has yet to endorse major legislative action to address the issue, as Trump has resisted calls for government regulations, citing concerns about lagging behind China.

The president and speaker were in attendance at the State Dinner on Thursday night in honor of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Washington, as were OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg and Google CEO Sundar Pichai. It was not immediately clear which of these executives would be invited to next week’s meeting, and who will be participating.

News that the meeting had been scheduled was first reported by Axios.

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AOC, nine other House Dems sign on to AI superintelligence ban

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A group of 10 Democrats has signed on to Rep. Greg Casar’s (D-Texas) bill that would ban superintelligence and pause advanced AI development until a vetting regime could be stood up.

Reps. Alexandria Ocasio Cortez (D-N.Y.) and Ro Khanna (D-Calif.), both of whom are mulling a 2028 presidential run, are cosponsoring the bill, named the Ban Artificial Superintelligence Act.

Khanna, in a statement, noted that he convened a hearing this week on AI safety cooperation between the U.S. and China as ranking member of the House China Select Committee with AI experts who underscored the need for a verifiable pause on superintelligence.

AI superintelligence is an as-yet hypothetical form of the advanced technology that surpasses humans’ cognitive capabilities, but exactly when AI crosses the threshold into superintelligence remains contested. The bill would subject violators to a 20-year prison sentence.

The support from prominent progressives in the Democratic caucus comes as the party is navigating how they would approach AI regulation should they retake control of one or both chambers in November.

Other cosponsors include Reps. Analilia Mejia of New Jersey, Yassamin Ansari and Adelita Grijalva of Arizona, Val Hoyle of Oregon, Stephen Lynch of Massachusetts, Chuy García of Illinois, Chris Deluzio of Pennsylvania and Nydia Velázquez of New York.

“We absolutely have to slow down and regulate the advancement of dangerous AI technologies that have the potential to spiral out-of-control and threaten humanity,” Ansari said.

To Lynch, a string of recent AI-led cyberbreaches has “shown us that the advanced forms of this are out of control,” he said in an interview. “We haven’t really solved that control problem yet, nor have we got the alignment problem right yet.”

Casar’s bill, introduced this week with Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), is among the most stringent AI regulations proposed by either party.

Rather than focusing on bans as Casar and his progressive allies have done, centrist Democrats are looking to legislative proposals they say can address the technology’s risks without stifling innovation.

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Senate GOP eyes data center vote next week

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Senate Republicans are discussing whether to call up a data center utility costs bill as they make plans to stay in Washington next week rather than beat an early exit before the midterms.

Two GOP aides who spoke on the condition of anonymity said the Senate will remain in town amid pressure from some corners of the party to send members home early to campaign.

Asked if the Senate will stay next week, Majority Leader John Thune said Thursday it’s “looking that way.”

While some lawmakers had hoped to move a long-brewing bipartisan energy permitting deal, those hopes have evaporated, and GOP leaders are instead eyeing votes on the Ratepayer Protection Act — a top priority of endangered Ohio Sen. Jon Husted.

Thune said Thursday moving to the data-center-focused bill next week “is an option.” The Senate is also expected to take up a Democratic resolution condemning the Iran war and several presidential nominations.

The Ratepayer Protection Act easily passed the House earlier this month, but some Senate Democrats are arguing it does not go far enough and party leaders could be motivated to deny Husted a pre-election win.

Josh Siegel contributed to this report.

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