Politics
Paxton presents an opportunity in Texas — if Democrats can take advantage of it
Texas Republicans’ messy Senate primary is giving Democrats hope that they could finally have an opening to wedge into higher office in the red state — for real this time.
But a potential pileup of candidates as the party sees renewed interest in the race could spoil their chances of finally flipping the Lone Star State.
Attorney General Ken Paxton, who endured multiple scandals while in office, is leading in the polls against longtime incumbent GOP Sen. John Cornyn. A Paxton victory could divide Republicans and potentially even sway some to support a Democrat. Nearly two dozen Texas Democratic members of Congress, party leaders and strategists described a sense of opportunity, but were divided on the type of candidate to run.
Some argued for a progressive, others thought a more centrist candidate could gain traction, while others weren’t even sure Democrats could pull off a win. There are calls both for new blood and for a proven candidate. Rep. Marc Veasey (D-Texas) just wants a candidate who’d “sound like a Texas Democrat” and could buck national trends..
“I think this is just a great opportunity for Democrats, and we don’t need to blow it,” said Veasey, who said he isn’t interested in a run.
Flipping Texas is a perennial Democratic dream, but core constituencies have moved further to the right, and Democrats haven’t held a Senate seat in the state since 1993. The state’s expensive media markets require fundraising prowess. That leaves the party with a crowded field of interested candidates, but none with a proven track record of winning statewide. Plenty of Democrats are skeptical they’d even win against Paxton, whose nomination isn’t guaranteed.
“I am hopeful that [Cornyn] could pull it off, because if you’re going to have a Republican in Texas, why not let it be John,” said Rep. Sylvia Garcia (D-Texas).
Democrats acknowledge they’d stand little chance of unseating Cornyn, who’s been a fixture in Texas politics for decades. But Paxton, a Trump loyalist who was impeached by the Republican-held Texas House (and acquitted in the impeachment trial) and faced a federal corruption investigation, has been a polarizing figure in the Texas GOP, and, Democrats hope, an opponent they could defeat.
“Democrats are foaming at the mouth about Ken Paxton,” said Katherine Fischer, deputy executive director of Texas Majority PAC, which works to elect Democrats statewide. “We’re seeing in local elections in Texas and across the country there is already a backlash against Trump and against MAGA. Ken Paxton is about as MAGA as you can get.”
First they need to find a viable Senate candidate.
After coming up short in previous cycles, many Texas Democrats are hesitant about supporting former Reps. Colin Allred and Beto O’Rourke, both of whom have signaled their interest in another bid. O’Rourke, who unsuccessfully ran statewide in 2018 and 2022, has been hosting packed town halls across the state. Allred, who lost to Sen. Ted Cruz in 2024 by about 8.5 percentage points, has said he was “seriously considering” another run.
“Well, [Allred and O’Rourke are] both talking about it, and I hope that they will resolve that one person’s running and not all,” said Rep. Lloyd Doggett.
Allred’s failed campaign has left a bad taste among some Texans, especially progressives, who believe he did not run aggressively or do enough grassroots outreach. And while O’Rourke is still a favorite son in Texas Democratic circles, many of those supporters believe he will be haunted by his position against assault rifles in a gun-loving state.
“They both tried it, and especially the last time, the margins were pretty wide,” said Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-Texas). “And I think those are all things to consider.”
Joel Montfort, a Texas-based Democratic strategist, agreed: “Putting the same two guys up over and over, I don’t think that’s going to deliver us.”
That’s why some say it’s time to try something new. Texas Democrats have talked up potential bids by state Rep. James Talarico, the Democratic seminarian and frequently viral member who helped prosecute Paxton during his impeachment.
Talarico told Blue Light News: “I’m having conversations about how I can best serve Texas, and that includes the Senate race. But in my training as a pastor, you learn the importance of listening and how hard it is to truly listen. With so much at stake for Texas, I’m trying to listen more than I talk right now.”
His potential candidacy is generating some interest from players who have run successful upstart campaigns. “It’s going to take a Democrat who can make the case against Washington D.C., the status quo, and the powers that to be to win a senate race in Texas,” said Andrew Mamo, a veteran of Pete Buttigieg’s presidential campaign who is informally advising Talarico. “James is one of the rare people in the party with the profile and most importantly the storytelling skills to get that done.”
State Sen. Nathan Johnson, a Dallas lawyer, is in the mix but he’s also eyeing a run for attorney general. Some party insiders privately worry a state lawmaker won’t bring the necessary firepower, saying they need to find a candidate with experience running statewide — or at least someone who represents Texas in Congress — due to the sheer amount of resources required to compete in the second-largest state.
Veasey and fellow Democratic Rep. Joaquin Castro have both been talked up as potential candidates, though Veasey in an interview ruled out a run. A person close to Castro said he was actively looking at the race.
While Democrats across the nation believe backlash against President Donald Trump’s unpopular agenda like his DOGE cuts and trade war will help in the midterms, the Democratic dream of winning Texas — which once seemed like only a matter of time — now feels farther away.
The party’s coalition problems are on stark display in South Texas, where Latino-heavy border districts like Gonzalez’s shifted dramatically toward Trump. Gonzalez and other Democrats have been warning of their party’s need to reverse their fortunes with Latino voters.
“There is work to be done on Latino erosion,” said Tory Gavito, an Austin-based Democratic strategist. “There is work to be done to make sure infrastructure is incredibly sound in places like Houston and Dallas and San Antonio and South Texas.”
Progressive Democrats are eager to back a candidate who runs to the left of Allred, based on their belief that working-class voters can be brought back to the party with a populist economic message.
“We’ve got to have somebody run who’s going to be willing to go travel the state, and connect with a diverse set of working-class voters,” said Rep. Greg Casar (D-Texas). “In Texas, people are looking for somebody that’s authentic and real, willing to tell it like it is, that’s going to energize our base, but then bring a lot of disaffected voters back to the polls.”
Allred is widely seen by Texas Democrats as the preferred candidate of Washington, and some said they’re tired of out-of-state consultants in their backyard.
“We don’t want people from D.C. telling Texans what to do,” said Nancy Thompson, a Democratic activist and founder of Mothers Against Greg Abbott.
A strong contingent of the party, however, believes that running too far to the left would blow up their chances in what remains a socially conservative state.
“You have to have real candidates that are willing to sound like everyday Texans,” said Veasey. “Being part of the national team will get your ass killed.”
Former President Barack Obama will campaign in Detroit with Michigan Democrats later this month, giving the party a high-profile boost ahead of the start of the state’s early voting period.
Obama is set to join Democratic Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed, gubernatorial nominee Jocelyn Benson and other candidates on Oct. 24, the state party announced Monday.
“It is my honor and privilege to announce that President @BarackObama is joining us on the trail in Detroit on Saturday, October 24,” El-Sayed wrote on social media. “Get. Ready.”
The event comes 10 days before Election Day, with Democrats defending an open Senate seat and the governor’s office.
El-Sayed faces Republican former Rep. Mike Rogers in the race to succeed retiring Democratic Sen. Gary Peters. Benson, Michigan’s secretary of state, faces Republican Rep. John James in the open governor’s race.
Since leaving the White House, Obama has remained one of the party’s most popular figures, both nationally and among the party grassroots. He has campaigned in past cycles, but he’s made few public stops on the trail this year.
He previously campaigned in Texas with Democratic Senate nominee James Talarico and gubernatorial nominee Gina Hinojosa, and appeared in a campaign ad with Iowa Senate nominee Josh Turek.
The former president is also set to headline a Washington-area fundraiser Wednesday for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, his first with the party’s Senate campaign arm this election cycle.
Ken Paxton is less than a month out from the conclusion of a D.C.-outsider campaign for a Texas U.S. Senate seat that he privately admitted is being run by Washington.
“I’ve never been in a race where I felt less control over the campaign and, like, what issues are going to matter because it’s all coming — you know — from D.C.,” Paxton said during a small fundraising event last month, according to an audio recording obtained by Blue Light News from a person in the room who does not support Paxton, and verified by another attendee.
“I don’t control message or what we’re doing.”
The lunch, hosted Sept. 24 in Washington by Chris Brinson and Susan Hirschmann of the D.C.-based lobbying firm Williams & Jensen, was attended by about a dozen people including Scott Kopple, VP of government relations at defense contractor BWXT.
“Texas is a big state, and some of these issues obviously resonate with real — I’ll call real people — you know, like back home,” Kopple, who did not respond to a request for comment, said to some chuckles in the room. “I know you need money to get the message out and stuff, but how does this stuff translate?”
Paxton replied saying: “I miss the days when I could go to, get around with all the people. But we have 32 million people, so let’s just say for the next 40 days I’m in front of 1,000 people a day — which I’m not — and that’s 40,000 people. Ten to 10.4 million people are gonna vote.”
“But then it comes down to your messaging,” he continued, “which in a federal race comes from other people a lot of times, which you don’t control.”
One attendee granted anonymity to discuss the private meeting said that Paxton never explicitly said he was referring to Trump’s team controlling his campaign, but “everybody knew what he was talking about.” The person said Paxton’s comments came amid a broader discussion about the national political environment.
“I don’t have ability to change anything,” Paxton went on. “So I have to live with whatever I’ve got. So it is a challenge.”
Paxton campaign adviser Nick Maddux said, “Campaigns don’t coordinate with super PACS and that’s obviously what AG Paxton was referring to,” in a statement to Blue Light News. “AG Paxton is thankful for the support and knows how important Texas is to keeping the majority which is why he’s on the ground every day talking to Texas, raising money, and taking his message directly to the people including with his statewide television buy that started over this past weekend.”
Neither Hirschmann nor Brinson responded to a request for comment.
In an audio recording of the same meeting obtained by The New York Times, Paxton told attendees the midterm convention hosted by Trump in Texas last month “dropped our numbers. Everybody’s numbers dropped. Right now, yeah, not good.” Maddux described the article as “manipulated nonsense.” Playbook hasn’t heard the contents of the rest of the hourlong meeting.
The most recent New York Times/Siena poll has Paxton running 6 points behind Democratic challenger James Talarico.
The private comments follow a bitter primary campaign waged against Republican incumbent John Cornyn, whom Paxton framed as a “Washington insider” and “RINO” while publicly aligning himself with Trump.
“His money is coming from the D.C. establishment,” Paxton said of Cornyn while campaigning in Texas before the primary, the AP reported. “That’s how they always try to convince us from Washington with their money that we should select their person. Well, I’m not their person and I’m never going to be their person.”
Paxton maintains a cash advantage heading into November and announced a $20 million ad buy last month. The Senate Leadership Fund, a top GOP super political action committee closely aligned with Senate Majority Leader John Thune, pledged millions to back Paxton earlier in September.
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President Donald Trump made major gains among Latino voters in 2024. Now, those same voters might cost Republicans control of Congress.
Fifty-nine percent of Latino registered voters prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress, compared with 35% who favor Republican control, according to a new NBC News/Telemundo poll released Sunday. That 24-point gap for Democrats is twice the party’s lead compared to the September 2024 version of the poll.
A separate CBS News/YouGov poll released Sunday also found Democrats ahead among Hispanic likely voters, with 60% backing a Democratic House candidate and 39% supporting a Republican.
The findings threaten gains the GOP made in 2024, when Trump narrowed Democrats’ long-standing advantage among Latino voters. A POLITICO analysis of that year’s election results found that Trump improved his vote share by an average of more than 6 percentage points in majority-Hispanic counties, compared with 2020.
With the midterms approaching, Republicans have made those gains central to their push to maintain control of the House. When Texas Republicans revealed their redistricting proposal last year, four of the five potential GOP pickup opportunities were in majority-Hispanic districts.
Meanwhile, Trump’s overall approval rating among Latino registered voters stands at just 27% in the NBC/Telemundo poll, while 69% disapprove. On the economy specifically, 74% of Latino voters disapprove of Trump’s handling, while 78% disapprove of how he’s dealt with cost-of-living concerns.
Nearly two-thirds, 65%, say Trump’s policies have hurt economic conditions. Inflation and cost of living rank as the most important issues facing the country for 33% of respondents, followed by government corruption at 22%. Another 10% named jobs and the economy.
Economic frustration helped drive Latino voters toward Trump in 2024, with Democrats across the country suggesting in the aftermath of his victory that he was better able to connect with the voting bloc on financial issues.
But now, Latino voters seem to favor Democrats over Republicans on the economy, 48% to 27%, and the cost of living, 45% compared to 26%.
The war with Iran, now in its seventh month, is also weighing on voters’ perceptions of energy costs. In September, the average price of diesel hit a record $6.53, according to AAA.
In the CBS survey, 91% of Hispanic registered voters attributed rising U.S. oil and gas prices to the conflict.
Trump’s immigration crackdown is also putting vulnerable Republicans on the defensive. Rep. María Elvira Salazar (R-Fla.) released an ad in English and Spanish criticizing the administration for going “too far” on immigration and saying Hispanics who backed Trump in 2024 feel “betrayed.”
In the days immediately following her ad, Trump told reporters that he still supported Salazar. “I’m very strong on the borders — and she isn’t,” Trump said. But the president later reposted a flurry of social media messages criticizing Salazar on Truth Social, including one calling for the Florida Republican’s replacement ahead of the midterms.
In the NBC/Telemundo poll, 67% of Latino voters say Trump’s immigration enforcement has gone too far, compared with 22% who say he has taken the right approach.
The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Dissatisfaction with Trump and Republicans has not translated into broadly positive views of Democrats. According to the NBC poll, Latino voters remain nearly evenly divided on the Democratic Party, with 41% viewing it positively and 42% negatively. Negative views of the GOP, meanwhile, have climbed to 62%, up from 46% in September 2024.
The NBC/Telemundo survey of 800 Latino registered voters was conducted Sept. 21-28 and has a margin of error of ±3.46%. The CBS/YouGov survey of 2,166 adults was conducted Sept. 30-Oct. 2, with a margin of error of ±2.5 points.
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