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The Dictatorship

Our national debt and spending are up despite DOGE and other federal cuts. Here’s why.

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Our national debt and spending are up despite DOGE and other federal cuts. Here’s why.

There are two fundamental fiscal truths: America has a debt problem, and dealing with the debt will not be easy.

So far, our leaders are not coming to terms with the facts.

The numbers speak for themselves. In the fiscal year that just ended on Sept. 30 — the last date for which the federal government was funded — the deficit was largely unchanged from its fiscal 2024 level: $1.8 trillion. In other words, despite the Trump administration’s focus on cost cutting in the federal government and all the additional revenue coming from tariffsthe deficit is still as large as it was a year ago.

All told, federal spending from January 2025 to September 2025 is up about 2% from the same period in 2024.

All told, federal spending from January 2025 to September 2025 is up about 2% from the same period in 2024. You might wonder how that is possible, given that the government (when it was funded) has operated under the same discretionary spending levels as last year, as well as high-profile Trump administration activities such as the Department of Government Efficiency effort, downsizing of the federal workforce, the abolition of the U.S. Agency for International Development and the forthcoming closure of the Department of Education. Two words: mandatory spending.

The largest mandatory spending programs are Social Security and Medicare. Others include things such as Medicaid and the Affordable Care Act subsidies, safety-net programs such as SNAP and Supplemental Security Income, and various other programs such as student loans and some veterans’ benefits. These programs don’t require regular review by Congress, and they grow automatically for a variety of reasons, such as higher enrollment or higher costs.

A closer look at the numbers is revealing. Since January, the federal government has spent $5.2 trillion — about $100 billion more than it spent from January through September of 2024. Spending on Social Security — the largest federal program — grew by $96 billion; Medicare spending grew by $58 billion; and spending on other federal health programs, including Medicaid, grew by a combined $46 billion. Discretionary spending, which Congress decides on annually through the appropriations process, grew as well, largely due to increases in defense ($19 billion) and the discretionary portion of veterans’ benefits ($27 billion). And do not forget about interest on the national debt, which grew by $63 billion.

Offsetting about two-thirds of the total increase in spending was a combination of one-time savings for student loan programs enacted by the One Big Beautiful Bill reconciliation law and decreases in spending on international affairs ($22 billion), among other relatively small changes.

For all the recent talk of policymakers’ interest in curtailing spending, the glaring issue when it comes to actual action has been the two behemoths of the budget: Social Security and Medicare.

To get borrowing under control, we’ll need to cut spending, increase revenue or some combination of the two (ideally along with economic growth). The reconciliation law put in place significant spending cuts, largely achieved through smart savings such as cracking down on abusive financing practices that states use to exploit Medicaid’s formula for matching funds. But those cuts were more than drowned out by massive tax cuts — only a small portion of which were financed — as well as increases in spending for defense and border security. That mismatch will increase interest costs as well. As a result, that law will cut total spending through 2034 only by about $400 billion — compared to $86 trillion in spending during the same period.

For all the recent talk of policymakers’ interest in curtailing spending, the glaring issue when it comes to actual action has been the two behemoths of the budget: Social Security and Medicare. Without touching either of these programs, there really isn’t much space to make significant improvements in our country’s fiscal situation. Worse, both programs have trust funds that are on a path toward insolvency. Social Security’s retirement trust fund and Medicare’s Hospital Insurance trust fund will run out of reserves in just seven years. At that point, the programs will be slashed — Social Security benefits by 24% and Medicare by 12% — as they are unable to cover what has been promised. Not making spending changes cements these across-the-board cuts.

Americans should be concerned with the dismal state of our fiscal situation. It will take tough choices and trade-offs to slow the growth in spending or otherwise raise revenue to the point that our national borrowing is sustainable. Ideally, our leaders would do that before it is too late.

Maya MacGuineas

Maya MacGuineas is president of the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

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The Dictatorship

TSA lines worsen as airports face mounting strain…

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TSA lines worsen as airports face mounting strain…

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump’s decision to order federal immigration agents to U.S. airports to help with security during a budget impasse is drawing concerns that their presence may escalate tensions among air travelers frustrated over hourslong waits and screeners angry about missed paychecks.

Trump made clear on Sunday that he was going ahead with the plan to have immigration enforcement officers assist the Transportation Security Administration by guarding exit lanes or checking passenger IDs unless Democrats agreed to fund the Department of Homeland Security. Democrats are demanding major changes to federal immigration operations and showing no sign of backing down.

Hundreds of thousands of homeland security workersincluding from the TSA, U.S. Secret Service and Coast Guard, have worked without pay since Congress failed to renew DHS funding last month.

“Bad idea,” said Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, about the new airport security plan, which Trump said would start Monday.

“What we need to do is, we need to get the DHS issues resolved, we need to get the TSA agents paid,” she told reporters at the Capitol, where the Senate held a rare weekend session. “Do you really want to have even additional tensions on top of what we are already facing?”

Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, chairman of the Senate Committee on Indian Affairs speaks at the oversight hearings to examine federal policies governing Indian water rights settlements, including S.953, to provide for the settlement of the water rights claims of the Navajo Nation, the Hopi Tribe, and the San Juan Southern Paiute Tribe on Capitol Hill, Wednesday, March 11, 2026, in Washington, (AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana)

Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, chairman of the Senate Committee on Indian Affairs speaks at the oversight hearings to examine federal policies governing Indian water rights settlements, including S.953, to provide for the settlement of the water rights claims of the Navajo Nation, the Hopi Tribe, and the San Juan Southern Paiute Tribe on Capitol Hill, Wednesday, March 11, 2026, in Washington, (AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana)

Senators advanced the nomination of Sen. Markwayne MullinR-Okla., to be Trump’s next homeland security secretary by a largely party-line vote, 54-37, with two Democrats joining most Republicans. A vote on the confirmation could come as early as Monday. Mullin has tried to make the case that he would be a steady hand after the tumultuous tenure of Kristi Noem, Trump’s first DHS secretary.

Border czar heads up airport security effort

White House border czar Tom Homan, named by Trump to lead the new airport security effort, has also been meeting with a bipartisan group of senators over the partial shutdown. While he characterized those sessions as “good conversations,” he said they were “not at a point yet where we’re in total agreement.”

Meanwhile, Homan said in Sunday news show interviews that the increased role of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement at airports — its specific duties and numbers — was subject to discussions with the leadership of TSA and ICE. DHS spokeswoman Lauren Bis said “hundreds” of ICE officers would be deployed, but she would not disclose the airports where they would go, citing security reasons.

“It’s a work in progress,” Homan said. The priority, he said, was “the large airports where there’s a long wait, like three hours.”

White House border czar Tom Homan enters the U.S. Senate on Capitol Hill on Friday, March 20, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Tom Brenner)

White House border czar Tom Homan enters the U.S. Senate on Capitol Hill on Friday, March 20, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Tom Brenner)

Atlanta Mayor Andre Dickens issued a statement Sunday night saying officers from ICE and Homeland Security Investigations would be deployed to the Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport starting Monday morning.

At the airport on Sunday, some travelers waited in line for nearly six hours at the main security checkpoint, where only two TSA agents were on hand midafternoon to check IDs. Many missed their flights and scrambled to book later flights or add themselves to standby lists that were already dozens of names long.

Dickens said all federal personnel would report to TSA and be assigned tasks such as line management and crowd control. “Federal officials have indicated that this deployment is not intended to conduct immigration enforcement activities,” his statement said.

Homan said immigration officers, as an example, could cover exits currently monitored by TSA agents, freeing them to work screening lines. Another option, he said, was having ICE agents check identification before people enter screenings areas.

“We’re going to be a force multiplier,” Homan said, while also acknowledging there were limits.

“I don’t see an ICE agent looking at an X-ray machine, because we’re not trained in that,” he said. He pledged to have “a plan by the end of today, where we’re sending — what airports we’re starting with and where we’re sending them.”

But Everett Kelley, president of the American Federation of Government Employees, which represents more than 50,000 TSA employees, condemned Trump’s plan, saying in a statement that ICE agents are not trained or certified in aviation security.

“Our members at TSA have been showing up every day, without a paycheck, because they believe in the mission of keeping the flying public safe,” Kelley said Sunday. “They deserve to be paid, not replaced by untrained, armed agents who have shown how dangerous they can be.”

People wait in a TSA line at the John F. Kennedy International Airport, Sunday, March 22, 2026, in New York. (AP Photo/Yuki Iwamura)

People wait in a TSA line at the John F. Kennedy International Airport, Sunday, March 22, 2026, in New York. (AP Photo/Yuki Iwamura)

Budget talks stall as airport worries worsen

Democrats have said they are willing to fund TSA and most other parts of DHS as they press for changes to immigration operations after the deaths of two U.S. citizens at the hands of federal agents in Minneapolis during an immigration enforcement operation. ICE officers are largely being paid during the partial shutdown, thanks to an influx of cash from Trump’s big tax breaks bill last year.

“There are lots of ideas swirling right now,” said Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D. “The good news in all that is people realizing this has to get fixed, it has to get solved.”

As budget talks stayed behind closed doors Sunday, senators said they had few details of which airports or how many immigration officers were being dispatched. Some welcomed the effort.

“I don’t think it can hurt,” said Sen. Mike Rounds, R-S.D. “They can help relieve some of the pressure.”

Trump said in a social media post that on Monday, “ICE will be going to airports to help our wonderful TSA Agents who have stayed on the job” despite the partial government shutdown. He further criticized Democrats.

Travelers at some airports worried about reaching their gates Sunday.

At Atlanta’s airport, lines wrapped from one end of the airport to the other.

The scene appeared more chaotic at John F. Kennedy International Airport in New York. Large crowds of anxious travelers piled toward security checkpoints, and TSA staff shouted through megaphones to tell people not to push one another.

For Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy, one concern is the uncertainty that passengers are facing over possible wait times at any airport on any given day.

“Do I have to come an hour and a half early? Do I have to come four hours early? They d on’t know until the day of or the afternoon of their flight,” he said. “So if we can alleviate that, again, the president wants to take away that leverage point for Democrats and make travel easier for the American people.”

Homan appeared on BLN’s “State of the Union” and “Fox News Sunday,” while Duffy was interviewed on ABC’s “This Week.’ ___

Associated Press writers Collin Binkley in West Palm Beach, Fla., Anthony Izaguirre in Lindenhurst, N.Y., Yuki Iwamura in New York, Nicholas Riccardi in Denver, Kate Brumback in Atlanta, Margery Beck in Omaha, Neb. and Rebecca Santana in Washington contributed to this report.

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The Dictatorship

Trump’s shifting strategy on the Strait of Hormuz drives criticism

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Trump’s shifting strategy on the Strait of Hormuz drives criticism

WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. (AP) — At war with Iran, President Donald Trump is cycling through an increasingly desperate list of options as he searches for a solution to the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz. He has jumped from calls to secure the waterway through diplomatic means to lifting sanctions and now escalating to a direct threat against civilian infrastructure in the Islamic Republic.

Trump and his allies insist they were always prepared for Iran to block the strait, yet the Republican president’s erratic strategy has fueled criticism that he is grasping for answers after going to war without a clear exit plan. On Saturday came his latest attempt, via an ultimatum to Iran: Open the strait within 48 hours or the United States will “obliterate” the country’s power plants.

Trump’s aides defended the threat as a hard-edged tactic to press Iran into submission. Opponents framed it as the failure of a president who miscalculated what it would take to get out of a geopolitical mire.

“Trump has no plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, so he is threatening to attack Iran’s civil power plants,” said Sen. Ed Markey, D-Mass, adding: “This would be a war crime.”

“He’s lost control of the war and he is panicking,” said Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., responding to Trump’s post.

Over the course of about a week, Trump has repeatedly shifted his approach on the crucial waterway for global oil and gas transport. There is growing urgency for Trump as soaring oil prices rattle global markets and pinch American consumers months before pivotal midterm elections.

Trump and diplomacy

Trump tried his hand at a diplomatic solution last weekend when he called for a new international coalition to send warships to the strait.

Allies turned him down. Trump then said the U.S. could manage on its own. On Friday he suggested other countries would have to take over as the U.S. eyes an exit. Hours later he indicated the waterway would somehow “open itself.”

“You can’t all of a sudden walk away after you’ve kind of created the event and expect other people to pick it up,” Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C. told ABC’s “This Week.”

Trump’s Treasury Department on Friday made its latest attempt to get a handle on soaring gas prices, by lifting sanctions on some Iranian oil for the first time in decades. That relieved some of the pressure that Washington traditionally has used as leverage against Tehran.

The goal was to send millions more barrels of oil into the global market. It is not clear, however, how much of a dent that would make in lowering pump prices or how the administration could prevent Iran from cashing in on the renewed sales.

The administration earlier temporarily lifted sanctions on some Russian oil.

An ultimatum to Iran

Trump’s ultimatum, conveyed while he spent the weekend in Florida, carries a threat of remarkable aggression. His previous messaging mostly focused on U.S. success in hitting Iran’s air force, navy and missile production. This time, the threatened target is the energy infrastructure that powers hospitals, homes and more.

His social media post — 51 words, much of it in capital letters — did not have the appearance of a message that underwent the careful legal scrutiny needed to justify an attack on civilian infrastructure, said Geoffrey Corn, a law professor at Texas Tech University and a retired lieutenant colonel in the Army who served as a military lawyer.

“It certainly has a feeling of ready, fire, aim,” Corn said of Trump’s moving strategy.

“He overestimated his ability to control the events once he unleashed this torrent of violence.”

That type of widespread attack would probably be a war crime, Corn said. For military leaders, it could force a choice between obeying an order to carry out a war crime or refusing and facing criminal sanction for willful disobedience, he said.

Laws governing warfare do not explicitly forbid attacks on power plants, but the tactic is allowed only if an analysis finds that the military advantages outweigh the civilian harm, legal scholars say. It is seen as a high bar to clear because the rules of war are, at their core, designed to separate civilian and military targets.

Iran’s U.N. ambassador, in a letter to the Security Council, warned that the deliberate targeting of power plants would be inherently indiscriminate and a war crime, according to the state-run IRNA news agency.

The White House has already faced intense backlash after the U.S. was blamed for a missile strike on an Iranian elementary school that killed more than 165 people.

Trump aides justify latest attempt to rein in the crisis

Trump provided scant detail on which plants might be targeted and how. He gave Iran until Monday to reopen the strait or else the U.S. will strike “various POWER PLANTS, STARTING WITH THE BIGGEST ONE FIRST!”

Trump’s team came to his defense Sunday, offering justification for striking Iran’s energy grid.

Mike Waltz, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, said Iran’s Revolutionary Guard controls much of the country’s infrastructure and is using it to power the war effort. He said potential targets include “gas-fired thermal power plants and other types of plants.”

Speaking on Fox News, Waltz said he wanted to get ahead of “hand-wringing” from the global community, calling the Revolutionary Guard a terrorist organization. “The president is not messing around,” he said.

NATO’s secretary-general, Mark Rutte, who has allied himself closely to Trump, tried to calm tensions. He said he understood Trump’s anger and stressed that more than 20 countries are “coming together to implement his vision” of making the strait navigable as soon as possible.

Israel’s ambassador to Washington, Yechiel Leiter, cautioned against an all-out attack like the one Trump threatened. “We want to leave everything in the country intact, so that the people who come after this regime are going to be able to rebuild and reconstitute,” he told BLN’s ”State of the Union.”

Trump’s threat could prove counterproductive: If it’s carried out, Iranian leaders said they would completely close the strait and retaliate against U.S. and Israeli infrastructure.

___

Associated Press writer Seung Min Kim in Washington contributed to this report.

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The Dictatorship

Trump and his border czar say ICE will arrive at airports on Monday

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President Donald Trump and top administration officials said Sunday that Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents will arrive at the nation’s airports on Monday to handle security at exceedingly long lines driven by a shortage of TSA workers.

“I look forward to moving ICE in on Monday, and have already told them to, ‘GET READY.’ NO MORE WAITING, NO MORE GAMES!” Trump said on Truth Social.

Tom Homan, the White House border czar who will lead the effort, provided few details but confirmed the plan on BLN’s “State of the Union,” saying, “It’s a work in progress, but we will be at airports tomorrow.” DHS spokesperson Lauren Bis said later that “hundreds of ICE officers” would be deployed to airports “adversely impacted,” but she did not specify which airports.

It was unclear whether ICE officers would be conducting pat-down procedures but Homan suggested their focus would be on security instead of screening. “A highly-trained ICE law enforcement officer can cover an exit, that relieves TSA to go to screening,” he said, adding that the priority will be on “those large airports where there’s a long wait, like three hours.”

DHS and ICE did not immediately respond to MS NOW’s request for comment on whether officers will be wearing masks at the airports to which they are deployed. But Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy suggested Sunday that Democrats are the reason why federal immigration and border officers wear masks.

“Democrats want ICE to take off their face masks. The problem with that is we know the Democrats are going to want to dox those ICE agents, go to their homes, harass their kids,” he said on ABC News.

The ongoing partial government shutdown, which began after funding for the Department of Homeland Security lapsedon Feb. 14, has forced Transportation and Security Administration workers to go unpaid —with hundreds of them quitting or not showing up for work, severely disrupting air travel.

Duffy said security lines will “get much worse” this week. He predicted more TSA agents will quit by Friday, when they’ll go without another paycheck unless lawmakers reach a deal.

Trump said on Saturday that ICE agents would “do Security like no one has ever seen before, including the immediate arrest of all Illegal Immigrants who have come into our Country, with heavy emphasis on those from Somalia.”

Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey, whose city has been ground zero for the Trump administration’s immigration crackdown, said Sunday on MS NOW’s “The Weekend” that Trump “doesn’t actually mean that he’s going to keep people secure.”

“We all know that’s not the goal. The goal is to terrorize people,” Frey said. When asked if he thought the president was racist for his targeting of Somalis, the mayor said, “I think the answer is yes.”

Speaking on the Senate floor during a rare weekend session on Sunday, Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., lambasted Trump’s plan to send ICE agents to airports, calling it “really disturbing.”

“It’s a plan that has no planning. It’s another impulsive action from Donald Trump,” Schumer said. “When he acts impulsively there’s usually trouble. Whenever Donald Trump acts impulsively with no follow through, there’s trouble.”

Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska also criticized Trump’s plan, saying that “air dropping” agents to airports is “not a fix.”

The Association of Flight Attendants said ICE officers lack the kind of specialized training that the TSA’s transportation security officers get. “Furthermore, the introduction of ICE agents into airports creates contradictory missions, as attempts to question passengers about immigration status may distract them from ensuring airport security,” the union said.

And Everett Kelley, president of the American Federation of Government Employeesthe largest federal workers’ union, said, “More than 50,000 TSA employees have worked without pay for over five weeks. Hundreds have quit. And Washington’s answer isn’t to pay them. It’s to send ICE agents to do their jobs.”

Congress remains gridlocked over DHS funding, with Democrats demanding reforms to ICE operations after the fatal shooting of two U.S. citizens — Renee Good and Alex Pretti— in Minneapolis. Republicans have rejected proposalsto reopen much of Homeland Security, which includes TSA and ICE.

Airline executives from United Airlines, American Airlines, Southwest Airlines and others last week called on Congress to end the shutdownwriting in a joint letter that federal employees working without pay is “simply unacceptable.”

“This problem is solvable, and there are solutions on the table,” they wrote. “Now it’s up to you, Congress, to move forward on bipartisan proposals that will get federal aviation workers—including TSA officers, U.S. Customs clearance officers at airports and air
traffic controllers—paid during shutdowns.”

Mychael Schnell and Emily Hung contributed to this report.

Erum Salam is a breaking news reporter for MS NOW, with a focus on how global events and foreign policy shape U.S. politics. She previously was a breaking news reporter for The Guardian.

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