On Iran and tariffs, watch what Trump does, not what he says

About a month ago, Donald Trump published a provocative statement to his social media platform, which sparked some confusion.

“Effective immediately, any Country doing business with the Islamic Republic of Iran will pay a Tariff of 25% on any and all business being done with the United States of America,” the president wrote. “This Order is final and conclusive. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”

Although the wording and policy appeared straightforward, it generated uncertainty because no one knew whether to take the declaration seriously. The United Arab Emirates, for example, does extensive business with Iran, as do China and India. Was the White House seriously prepared to impose harsh economic penalties on these countries? Even as Trump tried to advance trade deals?

If the Republican’s online statement was to be believed, the answer was simple: Trump’s “order” was “final and conclusive.” Taken at face value, there was no wiggle room. This was a done deal. Countries that do business with Iran should prepare for U.S.-imposed economic penalties “effective immediately.”

A month later, however, it appears Trump didn’t mean a word of it. The New York Times reported:

President Trump issued an executive order late Friday that threatens — but does not impose — new tariffs on any country that buys oil or other goods or services from Iran. […]

The order seemed aimed chiefly at China, which is by far the largest purchaser of Iranian petroleum products. And while it cites a possible tariff of 25 percent, it would only be imposed after the secretary of commerce found that a country is buying from Iran and the secretary of state recommended action. … [T]he order is more a warning than a penalty.

So when Trump said his policy was “final,” it wasn’t final; when he said it was “conclusive,” it wasn’t conclusive; and when he said the tariffs were “effective immediately,” they were neither effective nor immediate.

This was not the first time. In October, Trump announced that he was punishing Canada for airing a television commercial that hurt his feelings by imposing an additional 10% tariff on its goods. A month later, it became clear that he did not follow through on his announcement.

Several months ago, when the president first started facing the “TACO” meme (“Trump Always Chickens Out”), it was based on a pattern in which he’d impose tariffs, watch the stock market fall, and then quickly reverse course to prevent a further downturn. The Iranian and Canadian examples are similar, but not identical: Trump isn’t chickening out in response to market reactions, he’s just thumping his chest in a performative display that he doesn’t really mean.

The president didn’t reverse course under pressure; he simply failed to follow through on empty threats. The TACO label often applies, but in cases like these, it’s better to see the Republican as a paper tiger.

Let this be a reminder to everyone looking at his statements, wondering whether they reflect reality: Watch what Trump does, not what he says.

This post updates our related earlier coverage.

Steve Benen is a producer for “The Rachel Maddow Show,” the editor of MaddowBlog and an MS NOW political contributor. He’s also the bestselling author of “Ministry of Truth: Democracy, Reality, and the Republicans’ War on the Recent Past.”