Politics

New York Gov. Kathy Hochul confronts a rising populist tide

Published

9 months ago

January 5, 2026

ALBANY, New York — Gov. Kathy Hochul is trying to center her reelection campaign on the cost of living. Doing so is putting her at odds with both the populist left and a resurgent Republican right.

She faces left-flank pressure to raise taxes on rich people so that New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s expensive agenda comes to fruition. On the right, Republicans have pledged to exploit any effort to support Mamdani’s goals as a sign the moderate Democrat is beholden to the upstart democratic socialist.

Hochul holds wide leads over likely Republican nominee Bruce Blakeman and primary challenger Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado, but the strength of her campaign will be vital for down-ballot Democratic candidates running in crucial House races. New York’s swing Congressional districts have the potential to determine control of the closely divided chamber and the future of Trump’s presidency.

Yet she must still work with both the untested mayor who vowed at his inauguration to govern unapologetically from the left and the volatile Republican president eager to shape the fate of Democratic-led states. Veteran politicians aren’t envious of the challenge she faces.

“I’m glad it’s Gov. Hochul and not me,” former Gov. David Paterson said. “You’re dealing with two very excitable people who are on opposite ends of the spectrum. My only suggestion to her is let them yell and criticize, but be the voice of reason. It’s putting yourself out there to your fellow New Yorkers.”

Yet the governor is showing signs that she’s willing to blend the policies of both the mercurial president and rookie mayor — making cost concerns a centerpiece for the coming year amid the expectation voters will reward her for sympathizing with their pocketbook problems.

Hochul plans to make a major push for free child care, a signature Mamdani proposal and an issue she’s supported during her time in office, with a multi-year plan to phase in a statewide program, she said in a recent radio interview — essentially backing a downpayment with the promise of future installments if she wins reelection. The governor also embraced a Trump-backed proposal to cap taxes on tips at the state level amid Republican pressure to do so, signaling plans to introduce legislation this year to the Democratic-dominated Legislature, which is set to reconvene Wednesday in Albany.

“As we welcome in the New Year, affordability remains my top priority and I am doubling down on my commitment to put money back in New Yorkers’ pockets,” Hochul said last week.

The governor, though, is facing opponents who will try to lay claim to the affordability mantle that Mamdani leveraged so effectively in his longshot bid for mayor. That will put pressure on Hochul to deliver on these populist themes — or potentially face the electoral consequences.

“Politicians are the original copycats,” said Democratic strategist Austin Shafran. “Zohran masterfully articulated an affordability agenda and was able to articulate concerns to a broader electorate. You’re going to see a lot of people try to thematically copy the message of his campaign and that may counteract a lot of the uncertainty.”

Hochul’s reelection will hinge on whether she can adroitly navigate a destabilizing populist tide that has consumed this political era — defined by voters fed up with rising costs and elections won by norm-shattering politicians like Trump and Mamdani. Hochul is drawing energetic challenges from Delgado, her own hand-picked lieutenant governor who is trying to channel Mamdani’s victory in his uphill bid, and Blakeman, a Trump-backed Republican who hails from a suburban bellwether county.

Impatient voters are increasingly willing to punish any candidate who fails to grasp their cost-of-living concerns. How Hochul adapts to this political moment will determine her electoral fate — and potentially provide a roadmap for fellow moderates struggling to make the center hold.

Mollifying voters’ affordability concerns is not an easy task and Trump’s low marks over his handling of the economy is a case in point. The president’s insistence that inflation is tamed, prices are down and the economy under his watch is on the rebound runs the risk of replicating voters’ complaints that Democrats were oblivious to how they felt about their financial plight.

Further complicating Hochul’s year is the unusual bind she finds herself in — essentially sandwiched between the two main characters of America’s political drama.

Mamdani’s free child care and bus service must be approved by Albany and will be difficult to deliver to voters in a deeply expensive city. Increasing taxes on wealthy New Yorkers and large corporations, while politically popular and drew enthusiastic cheers during Mamdani’s inaugural speech, opens Hochul up to Republican attacks as she runs for reelection. Trump may further meddle in his native state’s affairs by slashing federal spending to the Empire State. His administration shelved two offshore wind projects, including one near the Long Island coast, and Trump recently expressed frustration to Hochul with a controversial Manhattan toll known as congestion pricing.

Voters are willing to turn to Hochul-like moderates amid the Trump 2.0 era. In Virginia, Democrat Abigail Spanberger decisively beat Republican Winsome Earle-Sears. Mikie Sherrill retained the New Jersey governor’s office for Democrats by a double-digit margin — bucking an historical trend in the process.

Hochul, who often references her family’s economic challenges growing up in the Buffalo area, was sensitive to affordability concerns before it was a buzzy political concern.

As a new governor, Hochul backed a temporary suspension of the state’s tax on gasoline. She’s touted rebate checks to taxpayers, framed as a way of combating inflation. Hochul scaled back green energy plans amid widespread concerns over spiking utility bills — drawing complaints from environmental activists. And she reduced a controversial Manhattan toll from $15 to $9 after delaying its implementation for six months ahead of the 2024 elections out of political concerns.

But the political environment is giving her less leeway to pick and choose her policy fights.

This year, the staid governor is contending with a celebrity New York City mayor whose ardent left-leaning base will pressure her to back policies she’s been hesitant to embrace, like raising taxes. Hochul has repeatedly ruled out boosting income tax rates on the richest New Yorkers, but has hedged over hiking levies on large corporations.

Republicans pressed Hochul to back Trump’s push to cap taxes on tips by instituting a similar policy on the state level. After the governor announced her support to end taxes on up to $25,000 in tipped income, Blakeman’s campaign accused her of flip flopping on the issue — though her campaign said she never outright opposed the measure.

“Kathy, if you want more of my ‘tips’ on how to govern, just continue to follow my lead,” Blakeman, the Nassau County executive, said in a statement.

Left-leaning advocates, meanwhile, are mounting a renewed push for another state-level minimum wage increase — a move that is opposed by the governor’s allies in the business community. Hochul approved a 2023 measure that will link future wage hikes to the rate of inflation.

Hochul’s political bet, in part, is on voters preferring a steady hand on the wheel in an age of political disruption that has benefited both Trump and Mamdani. At the same time, she has strived to counter the president, including a successful effort that got him to restore $187 million in Homeland Security funding.

“She doesn’t have to be the disruptive leader that follows this trend because that might seem inauthentic,” said Basil Smikle, a former executive director of the state Democratic Committee. “What she does need to do is find a way to create a strong relationship with Mamdani. He can be the disruptive politician and be a counterweight to that, but still give a pathway to bring a lot of policies to the forefront.”

The new mayor has forged a publicly steady relationship with the governor despite their differences on key issues like Israel. Hochul has also approved of Mamdani’s hires, most notably the retention of Police Commissioner Jessica Tisch — a favorite of the city’s business community.

Mamdani remains a lightning rod, though, especially among Jewish voters and suburbanites — constituencies the governor will need as she begins to campaign in earnest. The new mayor kicked off a firestorm on his first day in office when he revoked several executive orders meant to bolster Israel and deleted old tweets from his office’s X account about fighting antisemitism.

Blakeman, Hochul’s likely November opponent, is already blasting her for aligning herself with the 34-year-old democratic socialist. Hochul’s political standing is tied in large part to the incoming mayor’s success.

“It depends on how Mamdani does,” said longtime Democratic strategist Hank Sheinkopf. “If Mamdani fails in the first six months, then she’ll take a beating.”

Politics

Trump will hit several deep-red states in October campaign blitz

Published

10 hours ago

September 25, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

President Donald Trump is hitting the campaign trail — and a series of his stops are in deep-red states he comfortably won in 2024.

Trump will campaign in Iowa, Florida, Texas and Alaska ahead of Election Day, according to two people with knowledge of the matter, who were granted anonymity to discuss not-yet-public plans. That’s on top of his scheduled stop in Oklahoma next week, as the RNC announced, and his visit to Alabama, which POLITICO first reported.

While the president has indicated a desire to stump for Ken Paxton in Texas and Dan Sullivan in Alaska, the addition of Iowa and Florida to his campaign schedule signals an expanded focus on red states as Republicans grow increasingly nervous heading into the final stretch of the midterms.

The president is also preparing to hold campaign rallies in more traditional battleground states starting Oct. 3, according to one of the people.

His travel schedule is a clear signal that the GOP is seeking to shore up their own territory — as rising voter anger over sky-high costs and mass deportations creates new openings for Democrats. The six confirmed states have highly watched Senate, House and gubernatorial contests this November, but they are also ones Trump won by double digits two years ago.

“While Democrats squabble over the last two cents their party has to spare, the president is barnstorming the country, energizing our base, and supercharging Republican candidates in key races and beyond,” said Natalie Baldassarre, an RNC spokesperson.

“We have the resources to spend, and Republicans are full steam ahead to protect and expand our majorities,” Baldassarre added.

The White House referred Blue Light News to the RNC.

Vice President JD Vance will also ramp up his campaign travel ahead of Election Day. He and Trump are expected to make stops in Ohio to boost GOP Sen. Jon Husted, as POLITICO has reported. Husted is trailing former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown in internal GOP polling by top Senate Republicans, according to two other people with direct knowledge of the matter, granted anonymity to share private details.

Trump’s latest midterms travel swing will first start with Oklahoma and Alabama — two deep-red states where Democrats haven’t made the same inroads in statewide elections as they have in other traditionally conservative states like Texas, Alaska and Kansas.

But his Alabama event could help drive turnout and shore up support for GOP state Rep. Rhett Marques, who is in a competitive race with Democratic Rep. Shomari Figures in the state’s 2nd District, despite Republicans’ effort to redraw the seat in their favor.

Republicans in Iowa, Texas and Alaska are growing increasingly alarmed about how close their Senate races are amid fallout from the Iran war and other policy moves by Trump. Florida Republicans have become uneasy about their own firewall, with some polling showing statewide races inside the margin of error.

Rep. Ashley Hinson, the GOP Senate nominee in Iowa, recently publicly broke with Trump over the Iran war, as did several other Iowa House Republicans.

“The bigger question on everything continues to be, whatever you do, will there be enough time. I just don’t know,” said one person close to the White House. “We’re teetering on the edge of it doesn’t matter anymore.”

Alec Hernández contributed to this report.

Politics

Poll: A crack is emerging in Trump’s coalition over deportations

Published

17 hours ago

September 25, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

President Donald Trump’s mass deportation campaign is running into resistance within his own voter coalition, as more and more Republican candidates publicly break with him ahead of the November election.

New results from The POLITICO Poll help explain why: Non-MAGA Trump voters are more than twice as likely as self-identified MAGA Trump voters to say his mass deportation campaign is too aggressive, 31% to 14%. While roughly similar shares of both groups believe Trump’s campaign is about right, the MAGA base wants him to go even further: 36% of MAGA Trump voters say his campaign is not aggressive enough, compared with 23% of non-MAGA Trump voters.

Meanwhile, support across Trump’s entire voter coalition falls when it comes to deporting people beyond the most violent offenders, such as those with minor criminal offenses or who have been living in the U.S. for years without legal status.

The new survey, conducted by London-based Public First, reveals how Trump’s immigration agenda — which has long been one of his signature political issues and a reliable GOP rallying point — has divided the very coalition that helped power his two presidential wins. The president’s MAGA loyalists are still more inclined than other Trump voters to support a tougher immigration posture, but there are clear limits to how far voters want the administration to go.

Those intraparty tensions burst into public view this month, when Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R-Fla.) released a campaign ad pushing back against Trump’s deportation agenda, saying some of his efforts “have gone too far” and that Hispanic voters who supported him in 2024 “feel betrayed.” It was a remarkable break from a sitting GOP lawmaker over one of the president’s defining policies, as Democrats have locked in on Florida’s 27th District as a prime target in their bid to flip the House.

Salazar’s public rift with Trump exemplifies the fears Republicans had been privately warning about for months: that the president’s immigration enforcement — marked last year by high-profile, flashy raids that rippled through communities — was alienating moderate Republicans, independents, young voters and Latinos who support border security and immigration enforcement in theory but dislike how it is being carried out.

And as the party stares down a difficult midterm landscape, including in districts and states Trump won in 2024, other GOP candidates followed Salazar’s lead, increasingly putting distance between themselves and the administration on key issues like immigration — despite having voted last year to approve billions of dollars for border security and immigration enforcement. On Wednesday, Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.), whose race has tightened against Democrat Adam Hamilton, also softened his stance on Immigration and Customs Enforcement as raids in southwest Kansas prompt temporary business closures and schools.

“When ICE operates in Kansas, it needs to coordinate with our local law enforcement. Our sheriffs and police know these communities better than anyone, and working together keeps officers and residents safe,” he wrote on social media, adding that he’s been in direct contact with Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin.

The Blue Light News Poll finds most Americans — including majorities of both MAGA and non-MAGA Trump voters — believe people convicted of serious violent or sexual offenses should be prioritized for deportation, underscoring broad agreement on a more targeted approach to enforcement.

The survey also finds that few people — including among both MAGA and non-MAGA Trump voters — prioritized targeting other groups for deportations. Less than a quarter of each group say people convicted of minor criminal offenses should be prioritized. Support falls further when voters are asked about prioritizing people who have lived in the U.S. for several years without legal status or people with dependent children in the U.S.

“A lot of it has to do with how you talk about it. They don’t want amnesty for people who have broken the law. They want everybody to do it the right way,” said a person close to the White House granted anonymity to discuss how Republicans are viewing the issue. “They understand that some people might be law-abiding, hard working.”

White House spokesperson Lauren Bis said Blue Light News is “skewing data to paint a false narrative.”

“The American people sent President Trump back to the White House to stop the invasion of our country and deport the millions of illegal aliens Biden and Democrats allowed into the country. The president is delivering on his promises,” she said.

Days after releasing the ad, Salazar said she had a “fantastic conversation” with Trump and urged him to protect the political “fortune” he had brought to the Republican Party on immigration. She also told CBS last weekend that Trump and the average American understand “the between the narco and the nanny and the gangster and the gardener.”

She said the administration should distinguish between criminals and unauthorized immigrants working in crucial industries such as agriculture, construction, hospitality and health care.

That distinction is also reflected in The Blue Light News Poll. Both MAGA and non-MAGA Trump voters are open to maintaining or increasing the number of people coming into the U.S. to work in sectors facing labor shortages, such as health care or agriculture. Sixty-five percent of MAGA Trump voters and 69% non-MAGA Trump voters say they want to see about the same number — or more — people coming to the U.S. to work in those sectors facing labor shortages.

“Trump 2.0 that took over in January 2025 completely misread what voters were telling him and Joe Biden during 2024, which was that they wanted to see more order and security over the U.S.-Mexico border,” said Matt Barreto, who conducted polling for former Vice President Kamala Harris’ 2024 campaign. “Instead, what Trump told Americans was, ‘Now I’m going to go hunt down immigrants who are just working and contributing to America.’ And there was extremely limited support for that.”

Past POLITICO polling on immigration has shown that the Trump administration has been unable to reverse the damage with voters on the issue. Last fall, battleground Republicans were already expressing concern about the administration’s immigration tactics. Those concerns intensified in the months that followed, while negative voter sentiment hardened by April after federal agents killed two U.S. citizens in Minneapolis.

The Trump administration, in the wake of bipartisan outrage, softened its rhetoric and abandoned flashy raids that often devolved into clashes with protesters. The president also installed Mullin, who moved quickly to repair relationships on Capitol Hill and keep the Department of Homeland Security out of the headlines.

But Mullin is also facing pressure from MAGA critics and immigration hardliners who think he’s not committed to the president’s vow to deport millions of unauthorized immigrants. In an effort to shore up his support with that contingent, top administration accounts, including Mullin’s, have ramped up posts about ICE, arrests statistics and tough talk about the administration’s immigration enforcement agenda.