Congress

Mortality and margins weigh on House Republicans as they kick off the election year

Published

8 months ago

January 6, 2026

Tuesday was supposed to be a rah-rah day for House Republicans — a chance to strategize with President Donald Trump about their agenda for the tough election year ahead.

Instead, 2026 got off to an unexpectedly somber start as they confronted the sudden death of a well-liked colleague and pondered the dire political and policy straits their dwindling majority has to navigate.

Most members learned about California Rep. Doug LaMalfa’s overnight passing as they boarded buses outside the Capitol to head to the Kennedy Center for their annual policy meeting. That news — as well as word that another Republican, Rep. Jim Baird of Indiana, had been badly hurt in a car crash — cast an immediate pall.

“This is coming as a shock to all of us,” said one House Republican who, like others quoted for this story, was granted anonymity to speak candidly about the mood.

Even a characteristically freewheeling speech from Trump — delivered at the performing arts center his hand-picked board had recently renamed for him without congressional approval — hardly lightened the mood. He remembered LaMalfa, a rice farmer who represented a rural northern California district for seven terms, as a loyal supporter and said he considered skipping the speech out of respect for his death.

“But then I decided that I have to do it in his honor,” Trump said. “I’ll do it in his honor because he would have wanted it that way.”

But reality soon set in that the House GOP would be facing challenges that went well beyond mourning. For one, LaMalfa’s death and Baird’s hospitalization represented another blow to their razor-thin majority, leaving many contemplating whether Republicans could ever muster the votes they would need to pass a laundry list of pre-midterm policy priorities.

LaMalfa’s death and Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s resignation this week left the GOP with a bare 218 votes for at least until early March. With Baird’s indefinite absence and the unreliable support of libertarian Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), Speaker Mike Johnson has to confront a day-to-day struggle to maintain control of the House.

His leadership circle, for instance, quickly had to calculate whether they would have enough Republicans in attendance to clear a procedural vote Wednesday allowing them to pass on a critical government funding package and several other bills this week.

“We keep saying we are one breath away from the minority — that’s more true today than ever,” another House Republican said.

Trump’s 84-minute speech ultimately veered into myriad topics. He at one point commented on his own mortality and pushed back on reports about his aging and declining health, admonishing some Republicans in attendance for calling to check if he was “dead” last year after he was away from cameras for several days.

He also raised concerns about keeping the House majority next year — a topic that lawmakers and White House aides say is frequently on the president’s mind.

“They say that when you win the presidency, you lose the midterm,” Trump said. “So you’re all brilliant people: I wish you could explain to me what the hell’s going on with the mind of the public, because we have the right policy.”

He then proceeded to throw a bomb into those policy plans as Republicans struggle to address rising health care costs — a topic that’s become an albatross for the party after a bitter December fight over extending Obamacare tax credits that have now expired, raising premiums for millions of Americans.

The president directed Republicans to be “flexible” on abortion issues in ongoing health care talks — essentially asking many in his party to cross a moral red line by abandoning the longstanding ban on taxpayer funding for abortion known as the Hyde amendment.

The remark stunned House conservatives in the audience and those listening in the Senate.

“I almost fell out of my chair,” said one who attended the meeting.

“Everything depends on details, but Hyde is nonnegotiable for most conservatives,” added a senior House Republican aide. That person didn’t rule out a potential “creative solution” on the matter but said “caving on Hyde is not an option.”

Asked for his reaction on Capitol Hill, Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.) said, “I’m not flexible on the value of every child’s life.” Others took it as an encouraging sign that Trump wants to notch a deal this month on an especially nettlesome election year issue.

But inside the House GOP policy sessions that followed the Trump speech Tuesday — touching on energy, housing and other issues — members continued to struggle with the way forward on their health care plans, according to six Republicans with direct knowledge of the conversations.

Many hard-line conservatives — who see abortion protections as an essential element in any health care legislation — would prefer Republican leaders pursue a party-line bill under filibuster-skirting budget reconciliation rules rather than cut a deal with Democrats.

Otherwise, according to two people with knowledge of the retreat discussions, key lawmakers ran through a well-known menu of legislative options — albeit one that is unlikely to offset the impact of the expired Obamacare subsidies before Election Day.

House Ways and Means Chair Jason Smith (R-Mo.) discussed proposals to expand tax-advantaged health savings accounts, while Energy and Commerce Chair Brett Guthrie (R-Ky.) talked through potential overhauls to a key prescription drug program and bills that would crack down on intermediaries known as pharmacy benefit managers.

Trump directed House Republicans in his earlier remarks to work on so-called “most favored nation” drug pricing legislation — something he’s pursued in executive orders and deals with health care giants as he moves to lower the cost of prescription drugs.

But the issue is deeply divisive among Hill Republicans, and GOP leaders have continued to rebuff Trump’s attempts to attach it to numerous legislative vehicles — including the sprawling megabill Republicans passed this summer.

Senior GOP aides on Capitol Hill say they have plans to address drug prices via HSAs and other policies, but they are leaving it to the White House to promote the most-favored-nation and other direct drug pricing plans.

That, Trump said — along with being “flexible” on Hyde and “directly” giving Americans money to purchase coverage — would allow Republicans to “take away” the issue of health care from Democrats, Trump asserted at the House GOP meeting.

“You could own health care, figure it out!” Trump said.

But House Republicans privately acknowledged throughout the day Tuesday it’s far from that easy.

“We’re still far from a solution on health care,” one GOP lawmaker said.

Benjamin Guggenheim contributed to this report.

Congress

Top trade official to RSC

Published

2 hours ago

August 31, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer will speak at the Republican Study Committee’s weekly lunch Wednesday, according to two people familiar with the plans. The visit to Capitol Hill comes as more lawmakers express concerns about the burgeoning trade war President Donald Trump is escalating with Canada just months before the midterm elections.

House Foreign Affairs Chair Brian Mast (R-Fla.) will also be speaking to the group of House conservatives.

Congress

Capitol Agenda: Johnson faces pressure to cut out early

Published

6 hours ago

August 31, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

The House is back in session, but it might be a short one.

Speaker Mike Johnson is looking to tick off the lone essential item on the chamber’s to-do list in lawmakers’ first days back: a Senate-passed, shutdown-averting spending bill.

A handful of other priorities are caught up in partisan battles and Senate limbo. Rebel factions in a thin House GOP majority continue to threaten Republicans’ plans of opening the floor for debate. And many Republicans are simply eager to get back home to campaign ahead of the November midterms rather than endure more headaches in Washington.

Together, those dynamics have fueled open speculation among members and aides that House leaders will call it quits until mid-November much sooner than the currently scheduled Oct. 1 exit date.

“So many people are having to run back and forth to campaign,” Rep. Morgan Griffith told reporters Thursday. “I think we can get some other things done [beyond the spending stopgap], but the big bills will probably have to wait until after the election.”

Johnson’s planning to put the spending bill on the floor Tuesday under a fast-track method, since there are reasons to believe it will pass without much drama.

The House agenda for this week also includes a vote from Republicans on a resolution condemning socialism — a political swipe at Democrats. And a potential vote is on tap to censure Rep. Chuck Edwards for alleged inappropriate conduct toward two female staffers following an Ethics Committee recommendation. Edwards attempted to clear his name last week ahead of the expected vote.

Other House priorities are stuck in the Senate or at a stalemate:

Key House Democrats believe the Senate-passed Russia sanctions bill gives too much authority to President Donald Trump, making it unclear it can pass.

Adoption of a budget blueprint for a fresh GOP party-line spending package is stuck amid competing demands from defense hawks, fiscal conservatives and some GOP senators who still aren’t convinced the bill is needed. Senate Republicans don’t expect the budget measure to be brought to the floor before the election, according to five people granted anonymity to disclose private discussions.

The Senate is expected to focus in September on confirming Trump nominees and holding a vote on cryptocurrency legislation, as well as trying to advance a bill to overhaul college athletics and the Senate version of the farm bill.

With those items deep in negotiations, there’s little incentive for House members to hang around to see if the Senate will play ball once it returns Sept. 14 for a brief three-week session.

Both chambers are already scheduled for recess next week following the Labor Day holiday, and many Republicans are expected to travel to Dallas then for the GOP’s midterm convention.

What else we’re watching:

— LAWMAKERS JOCKEY FOR E&C SPOTS: Lawmakers are already lobbying leadership to secure at least eight empty slots opening up on the powerful Energy and Commerce panel next year. Democrats Reps. Melanie Stansbury, Maxine Dexter, Jill Tokuda, Eric Sorensen and Luz Rivas have thrown their hats in the ring so far. Meanwhile, Republican Reps. Bob Onder and Brad Knott are working to convince leadership to put them on the panel.

— MILITARY WIDOWS STUCK IN BILL BRAWL: Military widows are caught in the middle of a bigger battle over how veterans should get compensated for their service. That House brawl over veteran benefits could ruin the last, best chance for widows to fix a decades-old law that strips away support benefits if they remarry. House lawmakers are eyeing mid-September for another vote on the legislation after a July vote was derailed amid opposition. If that’s successful, Senate Republican leaders have promised to fast-track the bill in an effort to send it to the president’s desk by the end of the year. If House lawmakers can’t, the measure will likely be shelved until at least the next Congress.

Mia McCarthy, Jordain Carney, Kelsey Brugger and Leo Shane III contributed to this report.

Congress

The House is back in session. Many Republicans hope it won’t be for long.

Published

9 hours ago

August 31, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

The House is back in session Monday for the first time in five weeks. It’s not clear how long members will stick around.

Speaker Mike Johnson is hoping to tick the lone essential item off the chamber’s to-do list in lawmakers’ first days back: sending a shutdown-averting spending bill to President Donald Trump’s desk. Otherwise, the Capitol Hill agenda is devoid of must-pass legislation until later in the year.

Meanwhile, the thin GOP majority has had trouble opening the House floor for debate on any number of legislative priorities, and many Republicans lawmakers are simply eager to get back home ahead of the November midterms rather than endure more headaches in Washington.

Together that has fueled open speculation among members and aides that House leaders will call it quits until mid-November much sooner than the currently scheduled Oct. 1 exit date.

“So many people are having to run back and forth to campaign,” Rep. Morgan Griffith (R-Va.) told reporters Thursday. “I think we can get some other things done [beyond the spending stopgap], but the big bills will probably have to wait until after the election.”

Another House Republican, who was granted anonymity to speak candidly, was more blunt: “I think we have very little to do.” A third member, running for reelection in a competitive district, said in a text message, “I’d be happy to be sent home early!”

The agitation for an early exit is likely to grow louder if Johnson can win approval as planned this week for the Senate-passed government funding bill, which would postpone a possible shutdown from midnight Sept. 30 to Dec. 11. The funding patch also would extend the deadline to reauthorize lapsing surface transportation authorities.

GOP leaders plan to put the bill on the floor Tuesday under a fast-track method requiring a two-thirds majority vote, and there are reasons to believe it will pass without much drama. Trump and key congressional Democrats have endorsed the 10-week punt.

That bipartisan support is expected to overcome Republicans concerns over a Senate-inserted provision backed by the White House to delay the start of an intoxicating hemp product ban, as well as a provision favored by Democrats to temporarily hold up a Trump administration proposal to put political appointees in charge of federal grant approvals.

“I would say that we’re going to avoid any kind of shutdown, and we’ll be in good shape going into the elections,” Rep. Riley Moore of West Virginia, a GOP appropriator, told reporters earlier this month.

Lawmakers have already punted other major deadlines, leaving members eyeing the post-election “lame duck” session for substantive legislating. But there are also lingering questions about whether House Republican leaders can move forward with a partisan agenda in any case.

Rebel factions upset over matters ranging from ethanol fuel regulations to immigration policy votes have frustrated Johnson’s attempts all summer to pass procedural measures necessary to bring GOP bills to the floor. Many Republicans believe those dynamics will continue into September, leaving the fast-tracked bills passed under “suspension of the rules” as leaders’ only legislative option.

“I don’t think many things are going to pass except for suspension bills,” said another House Republican granted anonymity to speak candidly about the GOP’s expectations for the pre-election session.

While leaders and their top aides acknowledge no current plans to send members home early, a frozen floor could quickly lead them to determine otherwise. At the same time, some Republicans are wary of beating an early retreat after many of them hammered the Senate for leaving town earlier this month without taking up key House-passed bills.

“We need to campaign, but it’s not a great look for us to not come into town and work,” a fifth House Republican granted anonymity said. The member, representing a safe red district, acknowledged that others in more competitive districts likely feel differently.

“People already think we are on vacation when we’re home,” the lawmaker added. “What kind of damage does it do if we leave D.C. again?”

Both chambers will be out of session next week following the Labor Day holiday, and many Republican lawmakers are expected to travel to Dallas at the end of that week for the GOP’s midterm convention. Republicans are looking to amp up one of their top campaign messages beforehand — that Democrats are left-wing extremists — by forcing a vote this week on a resolution condemning socialism “in all its forms.”

The House could also vote this week to censure Rep. Chuck Edwards (R-N.C.) for inappropriate conduct toward two female staffers following an Ethics Committee recommendation. Edwards, who dropped his bid for reelection two days after the panel issued a lengthy report, attempted to clear his name to his colleagues last week ahead of the expected vote.

House GOP leaders could also put a Senate-passed Russian sanctions bill on the floor before the end of the month, though it is unclear whether it can pass. Many House Democrats — including Rep. Gregory Meeks of New York, the party’s leader on the Foreign Affairs Committee — believe the bill would give too much authority to Trump.

But with many other House priorities currently in Senate limbo, there could be little incentive for members to hang around to wait to see if the Senate will act once it returns Sept. 14 for a brief three-week session.

House Republicans rushed before their summer recess to adopt a budget blueprint for a fresh party-line spending package, but it’s currently stuck across the Capitol amid competing demands from defense hawks, fiscal conservatives and some GOP senators who aren’t convinced another such bill is needed at all.

Senate Republicans don’t expect the budget measure to be brought to the floor before the election, according to five people granted anonymity to disclose private discussions.

House Republicans appear to be acknowledging that reality. When asked if he was confident the Senate would take up a third reconciliation bill, Rep. Jay Obernolte (R-Calif.) told reporters this month that “‘confident’ is probably the wrong word.”

Instead, the Senate is expected to focus in September on confirming Trump’s nominees and holding a vote on cryptocurrency legislation, as well as trying to advance a bill to overhaul college athletics and the Senate version of the farm bill.

Some House Republicans, including Majority Whip Tom Emmer, have been trying to build public pressure on the Senate to pass the crypto bill known as the Clarity Act for months. But a mid-September vote on that measure is likely to fail. And while negotiations continue over the Senate’s college sports bill, a bill on the same topic in the House has stalled out, giving lawmakers little reason to stay to see if a Senate deal comes together.

As for the farm bill, the House passed its version earlier this year largely along party lines, while the Senate version failed to advance in committee earlier this month due to GOP absences and Democratic opposition. Senate Agriculture Chair John Boozman (R-Ark.)said he plans to try again in September.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune is eager to advance the farm bill before the election, but doing so will require Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) to return from a monthslong absence — or Democrats to agree to a deal.

While Republicans are hopeful that McConnell could come back in September, any final agreement on the major agriculture package is expected to wait until after Election Day.

“I think our Democrat colleagues are probably saying we want to wait until after the election to find out what the House of Representatives is going to look like, the Senate is going to look like,” Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.) said at an agricultural conference in South Dakota earlier this month.

Riley Rogerson contributed to this report.