Politics

‘More like a blue trickle’: Dems are hoping for a blue wave that might not happen

Published

9 months ago

August 3, 2025

Many Democrats are betting on a blue wave next year to help them regain favor with disenchanted voters and claw back some control in Washington — but several key indicators are turning into warning signs instead.

Recent polling shows Democrats are still struggling to regain their footing with voters who lurched right in 2024, and that’s compounded by growing gaps in fundraising, an increasing number of messy primaries and a congressional map that Republicans are redrawing to make it harder for Democrats to win.

“I don’t see a blue wave,” said Matt Taglia, the senior director of Emerson College polling, a non-partisan group that routinely administers political opinion surveys. “It’s more like a blue trickle.”

Still, as Democrats go on offense during the August recess, they are trying to juice up a blue wave by stoking backlash to the policies enacted under a Republican trifecta. They’ve tried rolling out a variety of playbooks already, on President Donald Trump’s handling of the Jeffrey Epstein files, tariffs and economic woes that could come from the megabill.

Democrats are placing so much stock in a wave midterm election partly because it could help them stymie Republicans in Congress and chart a path into the 2028 presidential election and beyond. Some Democrats acknowledge the party doesn’t yet have the momentum it needs to gin up a blue wave, but they say they’re confident it’ll come by early 2026.

“There’s a lot of angst about the Democratic Party writ large. I totally hear that. But you have evidence of people on the Democratic side pretty motivated to come out and vote,” said Neera Tanden, the president and CEO of the left-leaning think tank Center for American Progress who served as former President Joe Biden’s domestic policy advisor. “I think the midterm election will be about who is angrier.”

And Courtney Rice, a spokesperson for the party’s House campaign arm, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, emphasized the resolve to create a wave election next year: “It’s clear that Democrats are on a path back to the House majority come 2026.”

Republicans reject the idea that Democrats can overcome their hurdles by 2026.

“Vulnerable House Democrats are sitting on our turf,” said Mike Marinella, a spokesperson for the National Republican Congressional Committee. “They’re getting blown out of the water in the money race, they’re eating their own in messy primaries, the Democrat Party’s approval ratings are at rock bottom, they are consistently on the wrong side of wildly popular issues, and they’ve completely lost touch with hardworking Americans.”

Here’s a look at the headwinds that could put the legitimacy of the blue wave in question.

The polls don’t yet look good for Democrats

Even as Trump’s approval has tanked, about 63 percent of voters hold negative views of Democrats, marking a three-decade nadir for the party, according to a recent poll released by The Wall Street Journal. And Democrats’ projected wins are modest: Separate polls conducted by Emerson Collegeand YouGovshow that in a generic matchup between the parties, they are ahead by just 2 percentage points.

That suggests Democrats are having trouble capitalizing on what they say is Republicans’ shaky handling of economic and foreign policy.

Around this time in 2017 — ahead of Democrats’ monster 2018 blue wave year in which they gained a net of 41 House seats — Democrats were up about 6 percentage points in the generic ballot, noted Taglia, the Emerson pollster.

That doesn’t mean the blue wave dream is dead. Election Day is still 15 months away, and that same Emerson poll shows about a quarter of voters are currently undecided on the congressional ballot. Americans could start feeling the impacts of the megabill and other marquee policies like mass deportations well into campaign season, which could offer Democrats an opportunity to win back some voters who swung right in 2024.

“If we get to March of next year and we still see Democrats at 2 or 3 points up in the generic ballot, that is alarm bells for them,” Taglia said. “They’re going to want to be at least 4 points up. For their ideal result, probably more like 6 points … Then you’re starting to look a little bit like a blue wave.”

Redistricting could bite into Democrats’ opportunities

Texas Republicans unveiled a new congressional map Wednesday that, if enacted, would carve out five additional red-leaning districts. Those efforts, done at the behest of Trump, could throw a monkeywrench in Democrats’ plans to reclaim the House.

Now Democrats are trying to reforge relationships with voters in four newly created majority-Hispanic districts in Texas who swung right in 2024.

“Donald Trump and Texas Republicans are playing a dangerous game, and we’re ready to defeat now-vulnerable Republicans next November,” said CJ Warnke, a spokesperson for House Majority PAC, Democrats’ top House super PAC. “We’re bringing the full weight of our operation to the Lone Star State to make this backroom deal backfire and take back the House in 2026.”

Republicans also hope to squeeze out a few more red districts in other states. Control of the House hinges on razor-thin majorities, and those redistricting efforts alone could significantly stymie Democrats’ ability to retake the chamber.

Some Democratic governors, including California’s Gavin Newsom and New York’s Kathy Hochul, have threatened retaliatory gerrymandering crusades ahead of midterms, though it’s unclear how feasible these efforts will be because those states have ceded redistricting power to independent commissions, unlike Texas. Those states would have to rely on voter referenda or court orders to claw back this power, and they only have until early 2026 to pull it off.

Tanden says she’s optimistic California can counter Texas’s gerrymandering by 2026. “If someone was like, ‘while Trump is president we’re going to get rid of the commission,’ people would be down with that.”

Democrats are facing down messy primaries

House Democrats are facing crowded primaries across the map.

Some in the party worry that months of fighting over intraparty tactics or thorny issues like Israel’s war in Gaza could splinter voters and drain resources that could be used in the general election.

Democratic infighting over the idea of challenging incumbents has roiled the Democratic National Committee, where former Vice Chair David Hogg lost his position amid consternation over his plan to primary “asleep at the wheel” Democrats.

Democratic leaders have begun to worry that contentious primaries could derail the party’s path to retake the House, and House Majority PAC has threatened to intervene in primaries if it sees it as necessary to reclaim the House.

Republicans, meanwhile, have tried to clear their fields. Trump asked a number of ambitious Republicans to stand down last month rather than risk months of infighting, and Senate Majority Leader John Thune said he’s prepared to intervene in primaries that could produce nominees who would likely lose in November.

But Democratic strategists who spoke with Blue Light News insist these races can also energize their voting base ahead of general elections against Republicans.

Julian Mulvey, a Democratic media consultant, said the busy primaries could help Democrats sharpen their knives before the general election. “You may think that you’re saving energy, resources, but if you’re not putting forward your best fighters and they’re not able to sharpen up their attacks, sharpen up their defenses, you’re not actually helping Democrats,” he said.

Others say Democratic primaries this cycle aren’t shaping up to be the kind of ideological clashes that can leave voters feeling burned heading into the general election. There aren’t many candidates who stand far from their median voters and would put the party at risk of losing a seat, said Ian Russell, a Democratic strategist: “It means you don’t have a bunch of wounds that need to be healed in the party.”

Democratic fundraising is still lackluster

Republicans have generally raised more money than Democrats this year, particularly in the House battlegrounds.

In campaign finance reports filed Thursday, Congressional Leadership Fund, the top House GOP super PAC, revealed it had raised over $32.7 millionin the first six months of the year — about $11.5 million more than its Democratic rival, House Majority PAC.

It’s a reflection of the shaky relationship between Democrats and donors who have become rancorous over infighting among party leadership and discordant messaging. And it’s turned the fundraising narrative upside-down: House Democrats have usually crushed Republicans in the money race because of strong online fundraising.

Democrats insist they can catch up by early next year because the GOP front-loaded fundraising through joint fundraising committees that pool funds for dozens of members. Because those groups tend to rely on large national donors, that rate of fundraising may be less sustainable for individual candidates.

For DCCC-targeted House Republicans, about 30 percent of fundraising in the first half of the year came through joint fundraising committees, compared to just four percent for NRCC-targeted House Democrats, according to a Blue Light News analysis.

Tanden is hopeful there “will be a fair amount of resources for Democratic units,” and pointed to Roy Cooper’s recently announced bid for North Carolina Senate, which broke fundraising records in its first 24 hours.

Warnke, the House Majority PAC spokesperson, said money cannot overcome negative optics from GOP policies.

Republicans’ “tariffs are raising prices on American families, and they are hiding from their constituents because of their deeply toxic budget,” he said. “No amount of money will salvage their chances at reelection.”

Jessica Piper contributed to this report.

Politics

Tammy Haddad on Barbra Streisand, Trump and DC’s A-List weekend

Published

6 hours ago

April 24, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

Tammy Haddad on Barbra Streisand, Trump and DC’s A-List weekend

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Politics

He wants Muslims out of the U.S., and he’s Blakeman’s opener

Published

12 hours ago

April 23, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

Tennessee Republican Rep. Andy Ogles will be receiving an award at the Metropolitan Republican Club's annual gala.

THE ISLAMAPHOBE & BLAKEMAN: As Nassau County Executive, Republican Bruce Blakeman has welcomed Muslim residents with open arms.

He’s eaten at their Ramadan Iftar dinners, appointed the first Muslim chaplain to the county’s police force and talked about the value of Muslims as Nassau County county residents and Americans.

But as he tries to win a statewide race for governor, Blakeman is now aligning himself with a leader of the anti-Muslim faction of the national GOP — and he’s not responding to questions about it.

On Friday night, Blakeman will appear with Rep. Andy Ogles — the Tennessee Republican who has led the effort in Washington to “denaturalize” and “deport” Mayor Zohran Mamdani — at the Metropolitan Republican Club’s annual gala.

“Muslims don’t belong in American society,” Ogles has said. He’s also called Mamdani “Little Muhammad” and claimed that “denaturalizations and deportations are the only way to save the Big Apple.”

Blakeman’s team declined to comment on Ogles’ past statements or the gubernatorial candidate’s upcoming appearance with the House member.

Blakeman will deliver the gala’s keynote speech, and Ogles will be honored with the club’s Ronald Reagan Award for the Advancement of Individual Liberty. Also on the list of featured attendees are former Mayor Rudy Giuliani, Council Member Vickie Paladino and former Nassau County Bridge Authority Commissioner and pro-Israel influencer Emily Austin. Tickets start at $321.

The event’s host, the Metropolitan Republican Club, is often seen as the more mainstream counterpart to the city’s far-right New York Young Republican Club. The statewide New York State Young Republicans disbanded last year after POLITICO uncovered a trove of racist, homophobic and antisemitic chats involving members of the organization and other Young Republican groups around the country.

Ogles spoke at the New York Young Republican Club’s gala in December, where he said “naturalized illegal immigrants are polluting our politics” and “the new right must have courage to deport them,” a reference to his call for Mamdani’s deportation.

Husein Yatabarry, executive director of the Muslim Community Network, told Playbook remarks like Ogles’ can have a “huge impact” on the state’s roughly 1.7 million Muslim residents as they consider whether to engage in state politics.

“It’s sad to see that a lot of politicians are leaning into xenophobia and Islamaphobia and not looking at Muslims as part of their community’s fabric, but looking at Muslims as a way to get the most rude and heinous people behind you as a candidate,” Yatabarry said.

Ogles, who wrote a letter to the Department of Justice in October asking for Mamdani to be denaturalized, did not respond to a request for comment. He faces his own political battle this year, as a Democratic mayor has found fundraising success while hoping to topple Ogles in his deep-red district. Federal authorities are also reportedly investigating Ogles for potential campaign finance violations.

On the campaign trail, Blakeman often touts his strong electoral performances in purple Nassau County when speaking of his electability statewide. He easily won reelection last year in what was otherwise a bleak year for Republicans in New York.

But his Friday night appearance won’t be the first time he’ll find himself alongside figures from the extreme corners of the GOP. Blakeman was the keynote speaker at an event honoring John Eastman, an attorney who was disbarred in California last week for his efforts to overturn the 2020 election. When Blakeman’s running mate, Madison County Sheriff Todd Hood, spoke at a Buffalo-area political club led by a man who called Mamdani “vermin,” the Nassau County executive didn’t seem to mind.

“Mayor Mamdani is a disgrace,” Blakeman said in a statement at the time. “He is anti-American, antisemitic, and anti-Cop.” — Jason Beeferman

FROM THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL

House Majority PAC did not announce any investments for advertisement in New York City as Democrats guard Reps. Tom Suozzi and Laura Gillen seats.

PAC IT UP: House Democrats’ biggest super PAC touted its “largest early investment” in the organization’s history, with a notable omission — New York.

House Majority PAC’s announcement earlier today of an initial $272 million spend on advertisements includes zilch in the notoriously expensive New York City media market, where Democrats are protecting Reps. Tom Suozzi and Laura Gillen on Long Island and attempting to flip Rep. Mike Lawler’s seat just north of the city in NY-17.

Democrats, fear not. Money is on the way, according to HMP.

“Today’s initial reservations prioritize markets where rates increase significantly and there will be more reservations to come,” the super PAC’s communications director CJ Warnke said in a statement. “HMP plans to invest heavily to flip districts like NJ-07 and NY-17.” (The NYC media market covers Republican Rep. Tom Kean in New Jersey’s 7th District as well.)

National Democratic groups are working from a much smaller electoral map in New York after flipping four seats two years ago. Last cycle, HMP’s initial reserve included $16 million in New York City and $5 million in markets further upstate.

Meanwhile, the Congressional Leadership Fund — the House GOP’s main super PAC — on Thursday also released its initial advertising reservations, which the group similarly described as its “largest ever.” That $153 million investment includes $18.6 million in New York City. CLF also said it is putting money into Albany ($2.1 million), Binghamton ($1.8 million) and Syracuse ($658,000), markets that cover Democratic Rep. Josh Riley’s district — another seat that Republicans have their eye on.

Last cycle, CLF’s initial reservation included $20 million in New York City and $8 million in markets elsewhere in the state.

“House Majority PAC isn’t even spending one dollar to defend vulnerable Dem members Tom Suozzi, Laura Gillen, Josh Riley & [New Jersey Rep.] Nellie Pou,” CLF spokesperson Lydia Hall said in a statement. “They’ve given up on these incumbents while funding other offensive fantasies across the country.” — Madison Fernandez

From the Capitol

The Trump administration's executive order reclassifies state-licensed medical marijuana as less dangerous.

SCHRÖDINGER’S CANNABIS: New York’s beleaguered medical cannabis program can breathe a sigh of relief today after the Trump administration rescheduled medical cannabis through an executive order. Overnight, they went from dealing in a Schedule I, federally illegal substance to one that has a pathway to federal regulation under Schedule III.

What does this do for New York’s medical cannabis producers? First off, they will no longer be subject to an onerous federal tax code that barred them from taking typical business deductions like employee salaries. And starting next week, they’ll be able to register with the Drug Enforcement Administration — a dramatic shift for an industry that was viewed by the federal government as illegal drug traffickers.

The cannabis industry in New York and beyond is cheering the move as normalizing medical use of the substance. While the order doesn’t immediately change the status of the state’s adult-use market, where anyone at least 21 years old can legally shop, it does signal that the administration will likely take steps to do so this summer.

Beyond that is where things get a little murky. “There are a lot more questions coming out of this order than there are answers,” said Katie Neer, a cannabis regulatory lawyer who represents the New York Medical Cannabis Industry Association.

It could make it easier for the cannabis industry to access financial services, though that remains to be seen. And it could draw more capital to New York’s medical cannabis operators, where there are 10 licensees that are not yet operational. It could also enable New York’s medical cannabis operators, who are under one of the strictest programs in the nation, to export their products.

“It creates a market across the world for New York’s pharmaceutical [cannabis] products … to be exported internationally,” said Adam Goers, senior vice president of corporate affairs for New York medical cannabis operator Columbia Care. In terms of interstate commerce? “We’ll see how that plays out.”

New York’s medical cannabis program launched in January 2016 with 10 licensed operators. Eight of those are still operational, and the state issued licenses to 11 new medical operators more recently.

For now, even as they welcome the federal shift, cannabis companies will be tasked with figuring out the confusing legal complexities moving forward. Some of New York’s medical marijuana businesses also sell products in the adult-use market, which creates a quandary when it comes to figuring out their taxes, and more.

“It’s Schrödinger’s cannabis, right?” said Mike Feldman, general counsel of Nabis, a cannabis distributor in New York. “It is sitting in a warehouse, and it is both Schedule I and Schedule III at the same time.” — Mona Zhang

TRAIN TROUBLES — A dispute between Amtrak and New York’s Metropolitan Transportation Authority threatens the full rollout of new Acela trains, Amtrak said in a lawsuit that represents the latest transit dispute between President Donald Trump’s and Gov. Kathy Hochul’s administrations.

The suit, filed in Manhattan federal court, asks a judge to order Metro-North to give Amtrak access to the tracks, Blue Light News Pro reports.

Amtrak said Metro-North is blocking its ability to test new trains because of a dispute between the two railways over liability for damage to an overhead power line that Metro-North blames on one of Amtrak’s NextGen Acela trains.

In a statement, MTA suggested Amtrak is trying to distract from another ongoing dispute where MTA says Amtrak is holding up expansion of commuter service to Penn Station.

In the lawsuit, Amtrak reveals an issue with its new Acela trains tangling with MTA infrastructure near a bridge in Westport, Connecticut during previous tests. Similar infrastructure problems — involving the interaction between overhead power lines and a train pole that draws energy from them — caused massive delays for commuters in New Jersey two summers ago. The Garden State and Amtrak were able to work through their issues; this lawsuit against New York suggests a broken relationship between Amtrak and Empire State officials. — Ry Rivard

IN OTHER NEWS

— BILLIONAIRE BLUES: Citadel CEO Ken Griffin suggested the hedge fund might halt its planned New York City expansion after Mamdani filmed a video at his Manhattan penthouse to announce a new tax on second-homes worth over $5 million. (The Wall Street Journal)

— DELAY NOW, PAY LATER: Mamdani’s team presented Hochul’s administration with a plan to delay pension fund payments in an effort to save at least $1 billion as New York City faces a multibillion-dollar budget gap. (The New York Times)

— ZONE OF INTEREST: Unions are meeting with Mamdani’s administration to push for a veto of the buffer zone bill, which keeps protesters away from schools and educational facilities, as the mayor’s decision deadline nears. (THE CITY)

Missed this morning’s New York Playbook? We forgive you. Read it here.