Politics

‘More like a blue trickle’: Dems are hoping for a blue wave that might not happen

Published

11 months ago

August 3, 2025

Many Democrats are betting on a blue wave next year to help them regain favor with disenchanted voters and claw back some control in Washington — but several key indicators are turning into warning signs instead.

Recent polling shows Democrats are still struggling to regain their footing with voters who lurched right in 2024, and that’s compounded by growing gaps in fundraising, an increasing number of messy primaries and a congressional map that Republicans are redrawing to make it harder for Democrats to win.

“I don’t see a blue wave,” said Matt Taglia, the senior director of Emerson College polling, a non-partisan group that routinely administers political opinion surveys. “It’s more like a blue trickle.”

Still, as Democrats go on offense during the August recess, they are trying to juice up a blue wave by stoking backlash to the policies enacted under a Republican trifecta. They’ve tried rolling out a variety of playbooks already, on President Donald Trump’s handling of the Jeffrey Epstein files, tariffs and economic woes that could come from the megabill.

Democrats are placing so much stock in a wave midterm election partly because it could help them stymie Republicans in Congress and chart a path into the 2028 presidential election and beyond. Some Democrats acknowledge the party doesn’t yet have the momentum it needs to gin up a blue wave, but they say they’re confident it’ll come by early 2026.

“There’s a lot of angst about the Democratic Party writ large. I totally hear that. But you have evidence of people on the Democratic side pretty motivated to come out and vote,” said Neera Tanden, the president and CEO of the left-leaning think tank Center for American Progress who served as former President Joe Biden’s domestic policy advisor. “I think the midterm election will be about who is angrier.”

And Courtney Rice, a spokesperson for the party’s House campaign arm, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, emphasized the resolve to create a wave election next year: “It’s clear that Democrats are on a path back to the House majority come 2026.”

Republicans reject the idea that Democrats can overcome their hurdles by 2026.

“Vulnerable House Democrats are sitting on our turf,” said Mike Marinella, a spokesperson for the National Republican Congressional Committee. “They’re getting blown out of the water in the money race, they’re eating their own in messy primaries, the Democrat Party’s approval ratings are at rock bottom, they are consistently on the wrong side of wildly popular issues, and they’ve completely lost touch with hardworking Americans.”

Here’s a look at the headwinds that could put the legitimacy of the blue wave in question.

The polls don’t yet look good for Democrats

Even as Trump’s approval has tanked, about 63 percent of voters hold negative views of Democrats, marking a three-decade nadir for the party, according to a recent poll released by The Wall Street Journal. And Democrats’ projected wins are modest: Separate polls conducted by Emerson Collegeand YouGovshow that in a generic matchup between the parties, they are ahead by just 2 percentage points.

That suggests Democrats are having trouble capitalizing on what they say is Republicans’ shaky handling of economic and foreign policy.

Around this time in 2017 — ahead of Democrats’ monster 2018 blue wave year in which they gained a net of 41 House seats — Democrats were up about 6 percentage points in the generic ballot, noted Taglia, the Emerson pollster.

That doesn’t mean the blue wave dream is dead. Election Day is still 15 months away, and that same Emerson poll shows about a quarter of voters are currently undecided on the congressional ballot. Americans could start feeling the impacts of the megabill and other marquee policies like mass deportations well into campaign season, which could offer Democrats an opportunity to win back some voters who swung right in 2024.

“If we get to March of next year and we still see Democrats at 2 or 3 points up in the generic ballot, that is alarm bells for them,” Taglia said. “They’re going to want to be at least 4 points up. For their ideal result, probably more like 6 points … Then you’re starting to look a little bit like a blue wave.”

Redistricting could bite into Democrats’ opportunities

Texas Republicans unveiled a new congressional map Wednesday that, if enacted, would carve out five additional red-leaning districts. Those efforts, done at the behest of Trump, could throw a monkeywrench in Democrats’ plans to reclaim the House.

Now Democrats are trying to reforge relationships with voters in four newly created majority-Hispanic districts in Texas who swung right in 2024.

“Donald Trump and Texas Republicans are playing a dangerous game, and we’re ready to defeat now-vulnerable Republicans next November,” said CJ Warnke, a spokesperson for House Majority PAC, Democrats’ top House super PAC. “We’re bringing the full weight of our operation to the Lone Star State to make this backroom deal backfire and take back the House in 2026.”

Republicans also hope to squeeze out a few more red districts in other states. Control of the House hinges on razor-thin majorities, and those redistricting efforts alone could significantly stymie Democrats’ ability to retake the chamber.

Some Democratic governors, including California’s Gavin Newsom and New York’s Kathy Hochul, have threatened retaliatory gerrymandering crusades ahead of midterms, though it’s unclear how feasible these efforts will be because those states have ceded redistricting power to independent commissions, unlike Texas. Those states would have to rely on voter referenda or court orders to claw back this power, and they only have until early 2026 to pull it off.

Tanden says she’s optimistic California can counter Texas’s gerrymandering by 2026. “If someone was like, ‘while Trump is president we’re going to get rid of the commission,’ people would be down with that.”

Democrats are facing down messy primaries

House Democrats are facing crowded primaries across the map.

Some in the party worry that months of fighting over intraparty tactics or thorny issues like Israel’s war in Gaza could splinter voters and drain resources that could be used in the general election.

Democratic infighting over the idea of challenging incumbents has roiled the Democratic National Committee, where former Vice Chair David Hogg lost his position amid consternation over his plan to primary “asleep at the wheel” Democrats.

Democratic leaders have begun to worry that contentious primaries could derail the party’s path to retake the House, and House Majority PAC has threatened to intervene in primaries if it sees it as necessary to reclaim the House.

Republicans, meanwhile, have tried to clear their fields. Trump asked a number of ambitious Republicans to stand down last month rather than risk months of infighting, and Senate Majority Leader John Thune said he’s prepared to intervene in primaries that could produce nominees who would likely lose in November.

But Democratic strategists who spoke with Blue Light News insist these races can also energize their voting base ahead of general elections against Republicans.

Julian Mulvey, a Democratic media consultant, said the busy primaries could help Democrats sharpen their knives before the general election. “You may think that you’re saving energy, resources, but if you’re not putting forward your best fighters and they’re not able to sharpen up their attacks, sharpen up their defenses, you’re not actually helping Democrats,” he said.

Others say Democratic primaries this cycle aren’t shaping up to be the kind of ideological clashes that can leave voters feeling burned heading into the general election. There aren’t many candidates who stand far from their median voters and would put the party at risk of losing a seat, said Ian Russell, a Democratic strategist: “It means you don’t have a bunch of wounds that need to be healed in the party.”

Democratic fundraising is still lackluster

Republicans have generally raised more money than Democrats this year, particularly in the House battlegrounds.

In campaign finance reports filed Thursday, Congressional Leadership Fund, the top House GOP super PAC, revealed it had raised over $32.7 millionin the first six months of the year — about $11.5 million more than its Democratic rival, House Majority PAC.

It’s a reflection of the shaky relationship between Democrats and donors who have become rancorous over infighting among party leadership and discordant messaging. And it’s turned the fundraising narrative upside-down: House Democrats have usually crushed Republicans in the money race because of strong online fundraising.

Democrats insist they can catch up by early next year because the GOP front-loaded fundraising through joint fundraising committees that pool funds for dozens of members. Because those groups tend to rely on large national donors, that rate of fundraising may be less sustainable for individual candidates.

For DCCC-targeted House Republicans, about 30 percent of fundraising in the first half of the year came through joint fundraising committees, compared to just four percent for NRCC-targeted House Democrats, according to a Blue Light News analysis.

Tanden is hopeful there “will be a fair amount of resources for Democratic units,” and pointed to Roy Cooper’s recently announced bid for North Carolina Senate, which broke fundraising records in its first 24 hours.

Warnke, the House Majority PAC spokesperson, said money cannot overcome negative optics from GOP policies.

Republicans’ “tariffs are raising prices on American families, and they are hiding from their constituents because of their deeply toxic budget,” he said. “No amount of money will salvage their chances at reelection.”

Jessica Piper contributed to this report.

Politics

World Cup match collides with Florida GOP bash

Published

26 minutes ago

June 26, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

HOLLYWOOD, Florida — Colombia and Portugal’s World Cup match in Miami Gardens won’t be the only major draw pulling crowds to South Florida this weekend: Florida’s Republican grassroots are heading to Hollywood for their “Sunshine State Showdown.”

The GOP’s event at the Seminole Hard Rock Hotel & Casino is one of the state party’s biggest of the year. The GOP sold more than 800 tickets, with the party’s most devoted volunteers and many donors coming in from all over the state to get revved up for the midterms, gameplan their messaging and hear directly from top candidates.

The shindig will feature speeches from Sens. Rick Scott and Ashley Moody, as well as gubernatorial candidates Rep. Byron Donalds, former Florida House Speaker Paul Renner and Lt. Gov. Jay Collins. It will also include two congressional debates.

Several “Showdown” attendees said they were thrilled about the convergence of their party’s bash with a World Cup match. South Florida has already seen a huge economic boom in recent years, and the Magic City is poised to become even more prominent given Miami is set to be home to Donald Trump’s future presidential library and will host the G20 in December. “Miami is again at the center of the universe,” observed Miami-Dade County GOP Chair Kevin Cooper.

Several prominent Republicans said they see the international event as an opportunity to showcase the state. State Rep. Dean Black of Jacksonville, who also chairs the Republican Party of Florida’s fundraising committee, said he’d enjoyed seeing fans from abroad show appreciation over social media for American culture. “They have fallen in love with the greatness of America,” Black said. “By being exposed to the Republican Party event, they will learn just how that greatness came to be.”

Collins’ team said that while the lieutenant governor wasn’t attending the game, he was “happy the state of Florida is hosting so many fans from across the world experiencing the beauty of our state.”

Former Fox 35 Orlando anchor Ryan Elijah, a GOP candidate for Congress who’s attending the showdown, said he would be checking his phone regularly for World Cup updates.

“What a night for Florida to see the biggest names in Florida politics and World Cup soccer be just miles apart!” he said in a text. “It’s a dream night for tourism numbers and local businesses!”

But the packed weekend also risks turning into a logistical headache. The Hard Rock Hotel is one of the pickup points offering shuttle services to Miami Stadium. It’s less than 9 miles away from the big game.

Angie Wong, Republican executive committeewoman in Miami-Dade, attended Wednesday’s match between Scotland and Brazil. She said her family paid $200 for parking near the stadium and that it took more than an hour just to get out of the parking lot.

“We were lucky — we actually left before the game ended,” she said.

Yet this year’s “Showdown” is a more scaled-back affair than in the recent past. It won’t, for example, feature a dinner like in previous years. But that’s probably good news for any attendees who don’t want to miss the soccer match — or who are just trying to get back home without getting stuck in traffic. And it doesn’t have any major Trump administration officials attending, in comparison to last year, when the event prominently featured White House chief of staff Susie Wiles and now-former deputy chief of staff James Blair, who is currently running Trump’s political operation for the midterms.

Florida’s GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis — who remains highly popular with the state’s grassroots — won’t be speaking at the “Showdown” this weekend and his office didn’t reply to an inquiry about whether he’d attend Saturday night’s game. The governor was in the Miami area during the last couple of days, including hitting the Brazil-Scotland game on Wednesday night and holding a press conference at the former Alligator Alcatraz immigration detention center on Thursday.

Evan Power, chair of the state party, had already arrived at the Hard Rock Hotel on Wednesday night and said he got to watch a Brazilian victory parade happening right outside the restaurant where he was having dinner. He added he hadn’t had any issues getting in and out of the events center and that Republicans sold out their room block, “so I think we were able to get in before the craziness.”

“In our room block, people are happy because they’re not paying the market rate that is out there,” Power said. “Seeing some of the prices — they’re crazy now.”

Politics

A drag queen, a rainbow festival and a game FIFA can’t control

Published

2 hours ago

June 26, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

SEATTLE — FIFA has not endorsed the Seattle host-city committee’s “Pride Match” designation, which will not be part of the official branding when Iran and Egypt meet tonight at Lumen Field.

“I think they’ve always been aware of what we’re doing,” said Louise Chernin, who as chair of the organizing committee’s Pride Match Impact Council began planning for the day nearly a year and a half ago.

Chernin began her match day at Rough & Tumble, a women’s sports bar in Ballard, a historically Scandinavian neighborhood where a crowd had gathered to cheer on Norway against France. The bar was notably free of FIFA’s commercial imprint: The World Cup posters on the walls and the merchandise for sale were all drawn by local artists without any official logos.

It all reflected the extent to which the “Pride Match” has become a gentle challenge not only to FIFA’s record of clamping down on some expressions of LGBTQ+ rights but also the corporate monoculture it creates in host cities through its restrictive sponsorship rules.

“If there’s going to be revenue spent, let us bring it to LGBTQ-owned businesses,” said Chernin, a longtime head of the Greater Seattle Business Association, an LGBTQ+ chamber of commerce.

Just down the street, fans had gathered at a “regnbue” street festival — the word is Danish and Norwegian for “rainbow” — organized by a local Ballard business association. The Norway-France match was being shown on an oversized screen, but when halftime hit attendees did not listen to any of the ads on the Fox broadcast.

Instead DJ SummerSoft took the stage as Sativa the Queen, a local drag performer, vamped through the break.

Politics

The world’s not big on the US. The World Cup might help.

Published

2 hours ago

June 26, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

America’s stint hosting the World Cup is drawing mostly positive reviews to date — and it couldn’t come at a better time.

According to a new report from the Pew Research Center, views of America across the world are worsening and confidence in President Donald Trump’s leadership is dropping.

Pew surveyed 42,000 people across 36 countries between February and May, and found that America has a largely negative impression on the global theater. Only 23 percent of surveyed adults expressed confidence in Trump’s leadership — eliciting less confidence than Chinese leader Xi Jinping (34 percent) and Russian President Vladimir Putin (31 percent).

Foreign policy is the biggest pain point for Trump’s international critics, who take issue with his handling of tariffs, Gaza, Iran, Greenland and the Russia-Ukraine war, according to Pew’s findings.

Meanwhile, fewer countries — and longtime allies — believe the U.S. is a reliable partner. In Canada, where 83 percent of respondents described the U.S. as reliable in 2022, that number is now down to 35 percent.

In 2023, 60 percent of Germans said the U.S. considers international interests in its foreign policy decisions. That share has now dwindled to 23 percent — Germany’s public opinion of the U.S. is “now similar to or more negative than what was measured during George W. Bush’s presidency, when many people in Europe and elsewhere strongly opposed the war in Iraq and other major elements of U.S. foreign policy,” writes Pew.

There are only seven nations where a majority rate the U.S. well — Israel leads the pack, with 81 percent of respondents viewing America favorably. Some of the country’s lowest ratings come from predominantly Muslim publics, “such as Malaysians, Pakistanis, Turks, and Palestinians in the West Bank and East Jerusalem.”

Over the past decade, Pew’s polling has found growing concerns about the health of American democracy. A 2013 Pew survey, just as Barack Obama entered his second term, an all-time high of 75 percent of respondents in Australia, Brazil, Canada, France, Germany, Israel, Italy, Japan, Poland, the Philippines, South Korea and the U.K. said the U.S. respects its citizens’ personal freedoms.

Since then, declining shares of world respondents believe the U.S. respects its citizens’ personal liberties — and this year, 56 percent of respondents said the U.S. does not.