Politics
Moderate Democrats hope Spanberger holds the answer to their political problems
NORFOLK, Virginia – Six months out from November, Virginia Democrats believe the governor’s race is Abigail Spanberger’s to lose.
There’s a risk the former member of Congress could get bogged down by national malaise toward the Democratic Party, and her margins could end up being tight because of the negative Democratic brand.
But Democrats are hopeful that Spanberger can overcome that national dynamic. She flipped a competitive district in 2018 that stretches into rural Southwest Virginia and she benefits from the unpopular actions of President Donald Trump. His stop-and-start trade war coupled with the elimination of thousands of federal jobs and looming Medicaid cuts are widely unwelcome in the Commonwealth. Spanberger enjoys strong name recognition and is far out-fundraising her opponent, a candidate who even some fellow Republicans are wincing about.
A sweeping Democratic victory this fall could spook Republicans in Congress over their inaction to Trump’s aggressive agenda and provide a blueprint for staying laser focused on kitchen table issues like economic uncertainty and federal belt-tightening that the party can ride into the midterms next year.
“If we can get these people to vote we’re going to smoke them,” Virginia House Speaker Don Scott said. “We just got to get them to vote. That’s the fear – apathy.”
Spanberger, speaking with reporters ahead of a campaign event in the battleground region of Hampton Roads last week, shrugged off the fact that her campaign is under the national spotlight. She said the operation is “totally grounded” in Virginia and the “issues and priorities that matter here.”
“If that ends up setting a good example for other people running other places, then that’s their choice,” she said before entering a packed event full of local elected officials, donors and supporters in Norfolk, to mark the launch of her affordability agenda calling for lowering health care and prescription drug costs. She’s readying forthcoming plans to address other strains on Virginians’ budgets.
Selling strong messages on affordable housing, rural hospitals and public schools will help Democrats appeal to the more conservative parts of the state in Southwest and Central Virginia, said Aaron Rouse, a state senator and one of six Democrats running for lieutenant governor. Spanberger is “doing everything right so far,” he said.
Spanberger raised $6.7 million in the first quarter, dwarfing the $3.1 million brought in by opponent Winsome Earle-Sears, the lieutenant governor who was limited by state law from fundraising during the state legislative session earlier this year.
Early polling shows Spanberger is in a strong position: A Roanoke College survey this month showed her with a 17 percentage point lead, and more than half of respondents believe the country is on the wrong track. Another poll put the race at a much tighter margin, with Spanberger leading by four points.
But Spanberger’s campaign may run into the strong negative headwinds around the Democratic Party, which has been trying to reverse pessimistic attitudes toward its leaders. National Democrats believe that if Spanberger can broaden her appeal beyond the blue strongholds of Northern Virginia by convincingly talking about kitchen table issues, that will give them a much-needed morale boost and help guide them in the midterms.
Spanberger is focusing her campaign for governor on how she plans to lower costs – and blaming Trump in Washington and term-limited Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin in Richmond for making life more expensive. Virginia’s off-year elections are viewed as a referendum on the party controlling Washington, and Democrats are feeling confident as Trump’s DOGE cuts come down hard on Virginia’s robust federal workforce.
A recent analysis from the University of Virginia found that the state is projected to lose more than 9,000 government jobs, propelling a downturn in employment that is worrying state leaders.
“[Trump] creates the general political environment that you’re in,” said Virginia-based Democratic strategist Ben Tribbett. “She’s done a pretty good job of surfing that wave, of bringing more people into the party when they’re not happy with what the Trump administration is doing.”
November turnout may answer how much Democrats can count on Trump’s disassembling of the federal government as a motivating issue in the midterms. Virginia Democrats, confident that Elon Musk’s unpopularity will linger even as his term as a special government employee has expired, point to Department of Defense workers and contractors living in the more competitive Hampton Roads area who lost their jobs as evidence that anger over DOGE is not just limited to the northern part of the state.
Youngkin has defended the cuts as necessary to trim government waste, and encouraged out-of-work Virginians to pursue other open jobs in the state. His office has created a website to connect former federal workers to new positions. Earle-Sears was captured on leaked audio in April saying that “we don’t want people to lose their jobs” but downplayed the losses.
“Abigail Spanberger is dusting off the same worn-out playbook that cost Democrats the governor’s mansion in 2021,” said Peyton Vogel, press secretary for the Earle-Sears campaign, in a statement, referring to when Youngkin defeated Democrat Terry McAuliffe. “Back then, Virginians rejected fear mongering messaging and chose a leader with real solutions to make life more affordable and move the Commonwealth forward. Spanberger’s current strategy failed then, and replaying it now won’t change the outcome.”
Moderate Democrats see Spanberger as the ideal candidate to confirm their view that the party should shift toward the middle. In 2018, she defeated Tea Partier Rep. Dave Brat in an upset, joining the wave of women elected to Congress on a wave of anti-Trump energy. But Trump is much more popular than he was in his first term, so appealing to his voters becomes a crucial part of the comeback strategy.
In her first campaign ad launched this week, Spanberger highlighted her bipartisan voting record while serving in Congress. In 2022, after Democrats came close to losing the House, she was captured on leaked audio criticizing Democrats for embracing positions defunding the police and warned them to “never use the word socialism again.”
“Her biggest vulnerability is being a Democrat in this moment, but she is sufficiently defining herself as a different kind of Democrat,” said Matt Bennett, co-founder of the center-left group Third Way. “She watched carefully what happened to us in 2024 and is trying not to make the same mistakes, just trying to keep her focus on the things that voters actually care about and not get distracted by things that they don’t.”
Democrats view Hampton Roads, a competitive area that Spanberger needs to win, as the epicenter of several of Trump’s policies. In addition to DOGE layoffs, the Port of Virginia located here is bracing for a decline in shipments from other major trading partners.
It’s also a popular vacation destination for America’s neighbors to the north. Virginia Beach State Del. Michael Feggans, a Democrat running for reelection in one of the most competitive state legislative races, said he’s heard from local business leaders concerned about the decline of Canadian tourists annoyed by Trump’s annexation talk. Democrats are aiming to expand their one-seat majority in the state House, and are adopting a similar economic message as Spanberger to try to make that happen.
“He said on day one he was going to fix the price of everything and bring world peace, and there’s been nothing but chaos, confusion, and people are scared and people are worried,” Feggens said.
Virginia Republicans, on the other hand, are banking on DOGE being a distant memory when voters head to the polls in November. Those Republicans are skeptical that Spanberger’s anti-Trump message will resonate beyond the Democratic base, and they insist that swayable voters.
“Her entire message seems to be: Trump sucks,” said a Republican operative granted anonymity to speak freely. “When you get down to brass tacks, people want to see what exactly are you going to do.”
Leaders of the U.S. Hispanic Business Council knew it would be hard to get Ken Paxton to show up to their Senate town hall event. So, they turned to an unexpected ally: Sen. Ted Cruz.
Javier Palomarez, the council’s president and CEO, needed help since his own background – as both a Democrat and longtime ally of Paxton’s rival in the primary, Sen. John Cornyn – wouldn’t appeal to the Texas attorney general.
Cruz, however, was eager to step in. Soon, Palomarez was discussing logistics for the town hall with Paxton’s team; Paxton joined the event last week.
“We needed to find common ground and people that he trusted, that I trusted … and that clearly was Ted Cruz,” Palomarez said. “I don’t agree with Ted on a litany of shit, but at the end of the day, the guy’s always been a good partner to me and to the small business community.”
Cruz’s involvement hints at the significant behind-the-scenes role he is playing in this year’s high-stakes Texas Senate race — part-time adviser, part-time bundler, full-time believer that Paxton will pull out a win and keep Cruz from representing Texas alongside a Democrat.
Paxton’s inner circle is dotted with longtime Cruz allies, and Cruz’s aid could further cement his position as a Texas kingmaker in retiring GOP Sen. John Cornyn’s absence, earn new allies and boost his national profile ahead of a potential 2028 presidential bid. But if Paxton fails, it could be a black eye for Cruz.
“It is absolutely critical that Texas stay red, that Republicans keep a majority in the U.S. Senate and the House, and that we elect Ken Paxton instead of James Talarico,” Cruz said in an interview. “And so I am all in.”
Paxton’s campaign declined to comment for this story.
For decades, Cornyn has been the gatekeeper to Texas’ GOP donor class. But his loss has put Cruz even more at the center of Texas’ deep-pocketed donor community, letting him flex muscles first developed during his 2016 presidential run as Paxton tries to hold off Talarico and his fundraising machine. Paxton raised $18 million in the last quarter, some of those donations coming from first-time donors introduced to him by Cruz.
“Ted doesn’t go through a meeting in Texas where he’s not telling donors they’ve got to get on board,” said one person close to both Cruz and Paxton, granted anonymity to discuss private conversations.
Cruz has regularly campaigned alongside Paxton and frequently jabs Talarico on his popular podcast. His super PAC has gone on air with anti-Talarico advertising. And in addition to greasing the rails with his big-money donors in the Lone Star State, he’s acting as an informal adviser, regularly speaking withPaxton, according to two people familiar with their conversations.The political orbits of Cruz and Paxton have significant overlap. Axiom Strategies — the GOP firm run by Jeff Roe, who led Cruz’s 2016 presidential campaign — has long worked with both men. Nick Maddux, senior adviser to the Paxton campaign, was a key staffer in Cruz’s 2018 and 2024 reelection efforts. Sam Cooper, a longtime Cruz adviser, is now a senior strategist for the pro-Paxton Lone Star Liberty PAC.
Cruz stayed neutral during the messy primary between Cornyn and Paxton. He came off the sidelines after the runoff.
“Ted was one of the first ones that understood that, hey, this guy just got hit with $200 million of negative advertising. He’s running against an opponent who’s going to be well-funded,” said Cooper. “He’s going to need some help.”
Within a week of Paxton’s primary runoff victory in May, Cruz emceed a Washington fundraiser for Paxton, urging attendees to come together and support the Republican nominee. Days later, Cruz joined Paxton for a Texas fly-around, stopping in Dallas, Houston and Midland all in one day, to meet with donors. Cruz said they secured $3 million in donations on that day.
Cruz has presented himself as an emissary between more traditional GOP donors and Paxton’s hardline MAGA world.
“The case I’ve been making to donors who previously supported John Cornyn is, at this point, it’s a binary choice, and I think the choice is very clear,” Cruz said, noting he’s had “hundreds of conversations” with donors. “Many, if not most, of the longtime Paxton donors are also supporters of mine, but many, if not most, of the longtime Cornyn donors are supporters of mine, as well. And so I do think I’m able to bridge those two worlds.”
But Cruz’s involvement also carries some risk. Paxton is trailing in most recent polls, and Democrats are increasingly hopeful this is the cycle they finally flip a Texas Senate seat. If Paxton goes down, he could stifle Cruz’s momentum ahead of 2028, when other Republican hopefuls may attempt to lay the blame at Cruz’s feet.
“This is smart on Ted’s part,” said one longtime Texas Republican strategist not affiliated with either man, granted anonymity to speak openly. “It cements him with Paxton supporters as being the guy who stood up for him, and it allows him to expand his reach and have a greater claim on having a unified Texas behind him if he makes a run in 2028.”
If Paxton loses, “he put his best foot forward, and it’s going to be Paxton’s fault that he lost, not Ted Cruz’s,” the person said.
Cruz’s super PAC, Truth and Courage, was one of the first to go up backing Paxton, reserving over $2 million on air with an anti-Talarico ad, according to data from tracking firm AdImpact — though that spend has since been swamped by major buys from the Senate Leadership Fund’s PAC and other pro-Republican groups.
Cruz has hosted or participated in several fundraisers for Paxton, both in person and on Zoom. One of them — a fundraiser hosted by Cruz’s PAC on the sidelines of the Republican midterm convention, a confab Paxton later said “dropped our numbers” — featured dozens of donors crammed into an apartment in a glitzy uptown Dallas high-rise, in such close quarters that some of Paxton’s staffers were relegated to work on the balcony.
“It was incredibly well attended,” recalled Rep. Randy Fine (R-Florida), who spoke at the fundraiser. “You couldn’t move.”
AI safety groups aren’t buying OpenAI CEO Sam Altman’s shifting stance on political spending in the midterms.
They’re wary of his concession that campaign cash from industry-aligned groups, like the OpenAI-aligned Leading the Future super PAC, may have inadvertently backfired. Instead, they’re pushing for stronger commitments to downsize the flood of money — and for candidates to reject any support from pro-AI groups.
“I won’t believe that they are actually changing their strategy, or their goals I should say, unless and until they do,” said Democratic New York assemblymember Alex Bores, who emerged as a key voice among AI regulation advocates after Leading the Future and other groups spent $8 million to tank his House campaign. He launched a $30 million effort to unify Democrats on AI policy last month.
Altman’s stark acknowledgement to Blue Light News follows a New York Times report that revealed OpenAI President Greg Brockman backed out of injecting more cash into Leading the Future earlier this summer, calling the super PAC’s efforts a “distraction” from the company’s mission. The pause is notable as Americans grow increasingly anxious about the risks the technology poses, and lawmakers scramble to figure out how to approach the emerging tech.
Still, some critics are not taking Altman’s concession or Brockman’s pullback as a sign of a fundamental change in the industry’s campaign strategy — at least not yet.
“What I read it as is they are no longer — or Greg Brockman in particular is not — going to fund Leading the Future,” said Bores. “Does that mean that the industry is not going to spend hundreds of millions of dollars trying to influence policy and get benefits on their way? No.”
Bores insisted that candidates should think twice before accepting financial support from Leading the Future specifically: “An elected official of either party taking money from Leading the Future should be viewed with incredible suspect.”
Guardrails Alliance political director Charlie Blaettler agreed, saying OpenAI leadership deciding to distance themselves from Leading the Future should be the final straw for Democrats backed by the group.
“If it’s too toxic for Sam Altman and Greg Brockman, why are Democrats still taking their money?” he said.
Leading the Future and rival super PAC network Public First — which advocates for AI regulation and is largely funded by OpenAI competitor Anthropic — together spent over $70 million through super PACs this cycle, according to FEC data.
Other pro-regulation advocates have jumped in with their own political spending, with groups like the Guardrails Alliance — a nonprofit and super PAC that launched in June — raising $5 million and spending hundreds of thousands of dollars to support Bores. Some of Guardrails Alliance’s money came from OpenAI employees pushing back against Leading the Future, which is funded in large part by OpenAI president Brockman, his wife Anna, early OpenAI investors Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz, and their venture capital firm a16z. They have contributed a combined $75 million to Leading the Future.
Leading the Future and a16z declined to comment.
Some Democrats who were backed in their primaries by Leading the Future — like Reps. Ritchie Torres and Joe Morelle of New York and Jared Moskowitz of Florida — declined to say whether they would disavow the Leading the Future cash that boosted them in their races.
“An outside AI PAC spent money in the 4th district during the primary, but they didn’t donate directly to my campaign,” Rep. Val Hoyle (D-Ore.), who was backed by a nearly $300,000 investment from Leading the Future, said in a statement to Blue Light News.
She did not address whether she would disavow the group and its spending: “I’ve been working with labor leaders and advocates to put workers first when it comes to AI. We need clear federal guardrails to protect workers, safeguard our planet, prevent utility rate spikes and give consumers a voice.”
Even if candidates decide to further distance themselves from the industry’s spending, some pro-guardrails advocates said the onus still lies with figures like Altman to put a stop to — or significantly decrease — the influx of money altogether.
“[Altman was] basically saying, ‘These are the rules of the game, and I can’t really change them, and it’s not in my job description,’” said Brendan Steinhauser, who leads AI safety group The Alliance for Secure AI Action. “Of course he’s saying that, but they could do a unilateral disarmament or encourage the other labs to stop giving, and maybe it’d be just like pacing the frontier — maybe people could pace political giving.”
Former Democratic Rep. Brad Carson, who co-founded Public First, said he would be open to engaging in talks with Leading the Future about pacing or scaling back the industry’s political spending — but only if so-called AI “accelerationists” are serious about backing off. He called out Andreessen and Horowitz who have emerged as the biggest known spenders in this year’s midterm elections and were early investors in OpenAI.
“As long as these accelerationists have a desire to spend tens and tens, if not hundreds of millions of dollars, there is probably a need for a Public First,” said Carson, who also leads the nonprofit group Americans for Responsible Innovation. “So even if Brockman drops out, Andreessen and Horowitz can just drop another 50 million if they felt like it, and I wouldn’t want to be disarmed against that.”
Brendan Bordelon contributed to this report.
Former President Barack Obama will campaign in Detroit with Michigan Democrats later this month, giving the party a high-profile boost ahead of the start of the state’s early voting period.
Obama is set to join Democratic Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed, gubernatorial nominee Jocelyn Benson and other candidates on Oct. 24, the state party announced Monday.
“It is my honor and privilege to announce that President @BarackObama is joining us on the trail in Detroit on Saturday, October 24,” El-Sayed wrote on social media. “Get. Ready.”
The event comes 10 days before Election Day, with Democrats defending an open Senate seat and the governor’s office.
El-Sayed faces Republican former Rep. Mike Rogers in the race to succeed retiring Democratic Sen. Gary Peters. Benson, Michigan’s secretary of state, faces Republican Rep. John James in the open governor’s race.
Since leaving the White House, Obama has remained one of the party’s most popular figures, both nationally and among the party grassroots. He has campaigned in past cycles, but he’s made few public stops on the trail this year.
He previously campaigned in Texas with Democratic Senate nominee James Talarico and gubernatorial nominee Gina Hinojosa, and appeared in a campaign ad with Iowa Senate nominee Josh Turek.
The former president is also set to headline a Washington-area fundraiser Wednesday for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, his first with the party’s Senate campaign arm this election cycle.
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