Congress
Meet the YOLO Republicans: Lawmakers with nothing to lose are threatening Trump’s grip on Congress
President Donald Trump spent the past year using fear and intimidation to keep Hill Republicans in line, with considerable success. Now those tactics are starting to lose their bite — thanks to a small group of Republicans with nothing to lose.
The reasons why this handful of GOP lawmakers feel empowered to spurn their president and their party vary. But they are launching mini-rebellions with increasing frequency. It’s causing headaches for party leaders who want to keep tight control of the legislative agenda in an election year and anxiety among rank-and-file Republicans who are facing intense pressure to stick with Trump.
“Some people live in fear,” said Rep. Don Bacon, a retiring Nebraska Republican who was at the center of a crucial episode this past week, where he and two colleagues joined with Democrats to force House votes on Trump’s controversial tariffs.
When a vote to overturn his Canada levies came to the floor Wednesday, “I was in the cloakroom, and I heard people say, ‘I hate tariffs,’ and then voted” to leave them in place, Bacon recalled. Were it not for threats of retaliation from Trump and a heavy White House lobbying campaign, he estimated “30 or 40” Republicans would have broken ranks.
In the end, only six did. But thanks to the thin margins in both chambers — especially the House — a few steel-spined lawmakers can have an outsized impact. That’s a change from the dynamics in Trump’s first term, when many House Republicans weren’t fully on board with the president’s MAGA agenda, but the GOP had a much larger majority to work with.
Just ask Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky, who has gone from an occasional annoyance to Republican leaders to a persistent problem in the 119th Congress.
“The margin is razor-thin, so on any given day, I would just need one or two of my own co-conspirators to get something done,” Massie said in an interview before predicting the situation will only get worse for Trump.
“The retirement caucus is growing,” he said, referring to the dozens of members not seeking reelection to the House. “Once we get past March, April, and May, which contain a large portion of their Republican primaries, I think you’re going to see more defections.”
Those who have not defected are losing patience with their colleagues, with many arguing it is only hurting the GOP’s chances in the upcoming midterms.
“Certainly, I respect their right to be independent,” said Republican Rep. Buddy Carter, who is running for Senate in Georgia. “But you know, this is a team game. We got to remember that.”
One House Republican who was granted anonymity to speak candidly complained about a faction that “just wants to go rogue” while putting colleagues in a politically difficult spot — such as with the tariff vote this week.
“Those guys might lose now,” the lawmaker said of the House GOP’s most vulnerable members.
As voting was underway on the tariff measure this week, Trump publicly threatened to support primary challengers and enact other “consequences” against the members who didn’t fall in line. To some degree it worked — predictions of a mass GOP jailbreak didn’t materialize.
But enough members with some political insulation defected, allowing the measure to advance through the House and onto the Senate, which is likely to approve it and set up a Trump veto. Bacon and Rep. Dan Newhouse of Washington are retiring, freeing them from concerns about primary threats.
Meanwhile, Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania and Jeff Hurd of Colorado are in competitive districts that Republicans can’t afford to lose, putting pressure on the duo to show independence from their party. Rep. Kevin Kiley’s California district got blown up as part of Trump’s redistricting war. And Massie has long been accustomed to being at odds with party leaders, with his campaign to pry open the Jeffrey Epstein files sparking open warfare with the White House.
Some have doubts that a larger group of Republicans will ever break dramatically with Trump, given his durable popularity with the party base and the need for GOP candidates even in purple districts to appeal to the president’s loyalists.
One test will come later this year when Trump hits the midterm campaign trail, said Sam Geduldig, a lobbyist at CGCN Group and former House leadership aide.
“I would be surprised if a candidate didn’t want him at a rally, and that speaks to Trump’s strength,” he said. “If he can do that, it says a lot. In 2006, no one wanted [former President] George W. Bush in their district — not in conservative districts, not in moderate ones. If you’re measuring him against modern Republican presidents, he looks strong by comparison.”
Over in the Senate, Trump already has a fraught relationship with some GOP senators, like Maine’s Susan Collins and Alaska’s Lisa Murkowski, and there is generally a stronger culture of lawmaker independence. But Trump’s decision to essentially send Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina into retirement has introduced a new wild card in the chamber’s dynamics.
Tillis announced he would not seek reelection after voting to oppose Trump’s signature “big, beautiful bill” and warning the Medicaid cuts in the party-line policy package would be a political death knell for the GOP. Now Tillis is frequently speaking out against Trump and is single-handedly blocking his Federal Reserve nominees until a Justice Department investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell is resolved.
Some members are also eyeing GOP Sen. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana as a freer agent after Trump went ahead and endorsed an opponent in the May 16 primary. Asked about Trump’s threats to lawmakers, Tillis suggested they could easily backfire.
“I still maintain a good relationship with him … but I think we need to check our passions at the door,” he said this week.
Hurd, the Colorado moderate who voted to cancel the Canada tariffs and is facing a more conservative primary challenger, said he would “let the president’s statement speak for itself.”
But Hurd prevailed in 2024 without Trump’s endorsement and is in a competitive enough district that Trump can’t afford to meddle too much. The district was decided by 546 votes in 2022, when GOP Rep. Lauren Boebert narrowly held onto the seat.
“If they want to come to a district where Trump is underwater and push for tariffs in an agriculture- and manufacturing-heavy area, fine — that’s not going to work,” said a person granted anonymity to candidly discuss party strategy. “If they want to lose the majority and play in these primaries, then go ahead.”
Speaker Mike Johnson, meanwhile, has his hands full just keeping his majority intact. He currently can afford to lose only a single GOP member on party-line votes, and while upcoming special elections could boost that margin slightly, things are likely to remain super tight.
Johnson this week said he had urged one Republican battling health issues, Rep. Neal Dunn of Florida, to stick it out and finish his term amid concerns he might resign early.
Dunn declined to comment on his plans, but a close friend of his, Rep. Joe Wilson (R-S.C.), said he had jokingly told Dunn he would like to be helpful amid all the floor unrest.
“I did offer to carry him into the chamber,” Wilson said.
Jordain Carney, Mia McCarthy and Alex Gangitano contributed to this report.
Congress
Congress battens down the hatches for long DHS shutdown
Lawmakers left Washington for a week-long recess Thursday, showing no urgency to avert a shutdown at the Department of Homeland Security that will take effect Saturday morning.
The overwhelming sense of resignation reflected the reality that neither Republicans nor Democrats saw an obvious path forward to resolving their differences over President Donald Trump’s immigration crackdown and whether to rein it in as part of legislation to fund DHS.
Though negotiations between the White House and Senate Democrats continue, the trajectory of talks suggest DHS funding will be lapsed for at least 10 days — meaning the soonest any resolution would be reached is in the political hothouse around Trump’s State of the Union address on Feb. 24. The lack of progress has even raised the prospect that Trump’s speech to Congress might be postponed, and some Democrats are mulling a boycott.
“This ‘nyah nyah’ is going to go on for a while,” Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) said Thursday.
Even if a deal were struck, Kennedy added, “I’m not entirely convinced that anybody would vote for it. I can’t see the Dems voting for anything because they’re not going to get pounded for funding ICE. And the Republicans on my side are not going to get pounded for hurting ICE.”
Negotiations between Democrats and White House officials were ongoing as of Thursday evening. Democrats, who have floated a series of guardrails on immigration enforcement agencies in exchange for funding DHS, were expected to formally respond to the latest White House offer over the weekend after Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries bashed it Thursday without disclosing specifics on what was contained within.
The absence of leaked bill text in the exchanges between Democrats and the White House was one subtle sign of encouragement for those watching the negotiations that both sides were taking the talks seriously.
As they prepared to leave Washington, Republicans continued to knock key demands from Democrats, including a proposal that immigration enforcement agents seek judicial warrants before entering private property.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune said that Republicans and Democrats were “not close.” A senior White House official granted anonymity during a call with reporters warned that the administration wouldn’t “accept concessions that meaningfully affect its ability to carry out its immigration enforcement agenda.”
Even if a compromise emerges, some Democrats worry that Republicans will insist on so many qualifications that any of their proposed guardrails would be rendered toothless.
“We can’t pass reform that has exceptions and caveats — ‘you can’t wear masks, except for seven different situations where you can. You can’t bust into people’s homes, except 20 different situations where you can,’” said Sen. Chris Murphy of Connecticut, the top Democrat on the subcommittee overseeing DHS appropriations. “The offers we’ve gotten are just not serious.”
Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) said it was paramount that both sides “sit down with each other face to face and talk about what you’re doing.” But there were no plans for an in-person meeting.
It will likely take weeks for the public to start feeling pain from a lapse in DHS funding, meaning each side will feel limited political pressure to give in right away. TSA screeners are not set to miss paychecks until March, and FEMA coffers are likely full enough to respond to natural disasters for the near future.
After the Senate failed to pass DHS funding legislation Thursday, lawmakers in both chambers left Washington with guidance to be ready to come back in a matter of days if Democrats and the White House were able to strike a deal – something that members didn’t see as a realistic possibility before the end of next week.
“Both sides could dig in and just let this thing drag on,” Thune said. “I don’t think that’s in anybody’s best interest.”
Jennifer Scholtes, Mia McCarthy, Myah Ward contributed to this report.
Congress
Bipartisan congressional delegation saves US-Mexico joint military exercise
Bipartisan congressional pressure helped push Mexico’s legislature to approve a joint military exercise between the U.S. and Mexican militaries, according to two people familiar with a U.S. delegation to the country.
The U.S. and Mexico had been considering a joint exercise where 19 U.S. Marines would train with the Mexican Navy in the city of Campeche along the Gulf of Mexico (the U.S. calls it the “Gulf of America”). But Mexican lawmakers balked at approving the exercise after the U.S. conducted a Jan. 3 operation to capture former Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro.
The plan got back on track following a visit from a congressional delegation led by Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas), according to two people familiar with the visit who were granted anonymity to discuss sensitive conversations. U.S. lawmakers raised the issue with their counterparts in the Mexican Senate, urging them to approve the exercise and telling Mexican lawmakers they would closely track the matter, the people said.
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum officially requested the Marines’ entry earlier this week for the exercises, which will run from Feb. 15 to April 16. The nudge from Congress apparently helped, and Mexico’s Senate unanimously approved the Marines’ entry on Wednesday.
The involvement of the congressional delegation in securing the approval of the exercise has not been previously reported.
McCaul, who chairs the Mexico-United States Interparliamentary Group, and Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Texas), the top Democrat for the group, said in a joint statement that they “welcome the approval” and said it was a “key objective of our bipartisan delegation to Mexico this past weekend.”
“We are grateful for the Mexican Senate’s commitment to shared security, which will enable our countries to enhance intelligence-sharing and naval capabilities, intercept dangerous shipments before they reach our shores, and better protect communities on both sides of the border,” McCaul and Cuellar said.
U.S. Ambassador to Mexico Ronald Johnson said in his own statement that the delegation “in its meetings with Mexican authorities and Senate counterparts, reflects the profound depth of our bilateral cooperation.” He added it was also part of the embassy’s round-the-clock efforts “to work alongside the Government of Mexico and deliver greater security and prosperity for the American and Mexican peoples.”
At least in this case, the episode underscores that lawmakers still have some ability to sway foreign policy.
And the approval of the exercise comes at a critical juncture for the bilateral security relationship between Mexico City and Washington. President Donald Trump has previously warned he might consider using military force against Mexico’s drug cartels in the name of combating fentanyl trafficking.
Meanwhile, drug cartels, which control an increasing amount of territory in Mexico, have continued to expand their technological capabilities. On Wednesday, the U.S. abruptly closed the airspace around El Paso International Airport, saying that a Mexican cartel’s drone had breached U.S. airspace and counter-drone operations around the airport could have endangered commercial flights.
Congress
DHS shutdown all but certain after failed Senate vote
Lawmakers are heading for the exits following a failed Senate vote Thursday, all but guaranteeing the Department of Homeland Security shuts down early Saturday morning.
The funding lapse, which will hit parts of DHS harder than others, comes as the White House and congressional Democrats have failed to move closer to a deal after trading proposals to rein in immigration enforcement practices in the wake of two high-profile shootings in Minneapolis.
Democrats called the latest offer from the White House insufficient Thursday and are expected to send a counteroffer.
“Democrats have been very clear: We will not support an extension of the status quo,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said on the Senate floor ahead of the vote.
Democrats went on to block progress on a DHS funding bill the House passed last month, which would have been the vehicle for a short-term funding punt or a larger immigration agreement. The procedural vote was 52-47, well short of the needed 60 votes.
Prior to the vote, Trump’s border czar, Tom Homan, announced that ICE would be ending its enhanced immigration enforcement, a step that Democrats have called for. But Schumer said Thursday that “ICE’s abuses cannot be solved merely through executive fiat alone — we first and foremost need legislation.”
Republicans are expected to try to pass at least one weeks-long stopgap for DHS Thursday afternoon. But because every senator would need to agree to quick passage, it is expected to be blocked on the Senate floor.
While the negotiations have centered on ICE and Customs and Border Protection, a shutdown will affect a wider variety of agencies including TSA, FEMA and the Coast Guard.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune told reporters that he thought the White House offer went “a long ways” toward an agreement, adding, “There are a couple of issues obviously that they’re going to have to work through and work out [with Democrats], and lines that neither side is probably going to be able to cross.”
Thune added that Democrats are “posturing right now” but that “progress has been real.”
With no deal close at hand, the Senate is on track to adjourn Thursday for a previously scheduled one-week recess. The House also adjourned Thursday for its previously scheduled recess, though members are on call to return within 48 hours if an agreement is reached. Thune said Thursday if a deal is struck, senators will need to get back to the Capitol within 24 hours.
Some GOP senators publicly pushed to stay in session in the event of a DHS shutdown, but many others pleaded with their colleagues during a closed-door lunch earlier this week to let them go back home and campaign.
Others are scheduled to leave Thursday to go on international trips, including a bipartisan group heading to the Munich Security Conference. House Speaker Mike Johnson has barred members from traveling to Munich or going on other government-funded trips over the break.
Jennifer Scholtes contributed to this report.
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