The Dictatorship
Judges look to history in Trump cases
Welcome back, Deadline: Legal Newsletter readers. If you’re at least a casual news consumer, you’ve probably seen a rash of retrospectives on the first 100 days of Donald Trump’s second term. I contributed to the genre here. This week’s newsletter continues along that reflective theme, looking at how judges are invoking American history to help us understand the moment we’re in.
The Red Scare in the 1920s and McCarthyism in the 1950s featured in a ruling ordering the release of Mohsen Mahdawi on Wednesday. The legal U.S. resident was seized by immigration agents at his citizenship interview last month in Vermont. He argued that he was targeted for exercising his right to speak out for Palestinians. U.S. District Judge Geoffrey Crawford seemed to agree, finding that his continued detention would likely have a “chilling effect” on protected speech.
The judge also marked the moment by noting “the extraordinary setting of this case and others like it.” He observed that legal residents who haven’t been charged with any crimes are being threatened with deportation for stating their views on political issues of the day. Against that backdrop, Crawford summoned the anti-communist Red Scare and McCarthyism panics of the last century. “The wheel of history has come around again,” the Obama-appointed judge wrote“but as before these times of excess will pass.”
To be sure, it’s been a bipartisan judicial affair calling out this administration. Crawford’s ruling reminded me of last month’s lesson from Reagan-appointed appellate Judge J. Harvie Wilkinson III. Lamenting the government’s resistance to returning the illegally deported Kilmar Abrego Garcia, Wilkinson wrote that “[t]he Executive may succeed for a time in weakening the courts, but over time history will script the tragic gap between what was and all that might have been, and law in time will sign its epitaph.” The government is still resisting Abrego Garcia’s return.
This week, another Reagan appointee zoomed out to rebuke claims “from both inside and outside government” that the courts are causing a constitutional crisis by usurping Trump’s power. U.S. District Judge Royce Lamberth ordered the government to disburse congressionally approved funds to pro-democracy nonprofit Radio Free Europe. In doing so, the judge wrote that he was “humbly fulfilling my small part in this very constitutional paradigm — a framework that has propelled the United States to heights of greatness, liberty and prosperity unparalleled in the history of the world for nearly 250 years.” Lamberth concluded that “[i]f our nation is to thrive for another 250 years, each co-equal branch of government must be willing to courageously exert the authority entrusted to it by our Founders.”
Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson joined the historical conversation in remarks to a judicial conference in Puerto Rico. Blue Light News reported that she condemned attacks on judges who have ruled against the administration. The Biden appointee reportedly encouraged judges to be courageous and “keep doing what is right for our country, and I do believe that history will vindicate your service.”
Jackson and her high court colleagues wrapped up the term’s regularly scheduled arguments this week. Among them was a case that could make history because at stake is whether the justices will approve the nation’s first-ever publicly funded religious charter school. While Justice Amy Coney Barrett’s recusal from the appeal could make the vote closer, the remaining Republican appointees were largely sympathetic to the school, which the Trump administration backs. It could come down to Chief Justice John Roberts’ vote.
The Supreme Court’s next hearing is a rare one over Trump’s quest to curb birthright citizenshipset for a special May 15 session. Besides that, the justices are busy writing their final opinions of the term, which are typically published by July. In the meantime, they’re frequently fielding emergency litigation that could produce orders at odd hours, including on the administration’s pending appeal to Enforce a ban on transgender military service. The administration added yet another emergency request on Friday, seeking permission for Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency to access Social Security data.
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Jordan Rubin is the Deadline: Legal Blog writer. He was a prosecutor for the New York County District Attorney’s Office in Manhattan and is the author of “Bizarro,” a book about the secret war on synthetic drugs. Before he joined BLN, he was a legal reporter for Bloomberg Law.
The Dictatorship
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The Dictatorship
‘Melania’ falls steeply at the box office
NEW YORK (AP) — Hollywood largely ceded attention to football over a slow box-office weekend, with the survival thriller “Send Help” repeating as No. 1 in ticket sales and the Melania Trump documentary “Melania” falling sharply in its second weekend.
Super Bowl weekend is typically one of the lowest attended moviegoing times of the year. It was the second slowest weekend last year and in 2024 it ranked dead last for moviegoing.
Studios instead put their focus on advertising movies for the massive television audience. Among the trailers expected to hit the NFL broadcast Sunday were The Walt Disney Co.’s “Mandalorian and Grogu,” Lionsgate’s Michael Jackson biopic, “Michael” and Universal Pictures’ “The Super Mario Galaxy Movie.”
In North American theaters, the Disney.-20th Century Studios release “Send Help,” directed by Sam Raimi, lead all films with $10 million in its second weekend, according to studio estimates Sunday. With $53.7 million globally thus far, the R-rated survival thriller has proved a solid midbudget success. Disney meanwhile watched its remarkably long-lasting “Zootopia 2″ cross $1.8 billion worldwide in its 11th week of release.
“Melania,” from Amazon MGM, added 300 theaters in its second weekend but dropped steeply with to $2.4 million in ticket sales, down 67% from its much-discussed debut. The rapid downturn means the Brett Ratner-directed documentary is likely heading toward flop territory given its high price tag. Amazon MGM paid $40 million for film rights, plus some $35 million to market it.
The North American total for “Melania” stands at $13.4 million. Amazon MGM has not released international figures, though they’re expected to be paltry.
Kevin Wilson, head of domestic distribution for the studio, said the movie’s box-office performance “is a critical first moment that validates our wholistic distribution strategy, building awareness, engagement, and provides momentum ahead of the film’s eventual debut on Prime Video.”
The film’s ticket sales — which would be very good for a less expensive documentary — were a talking point throughout the week. Late-night hosts Stephen Colbert and Jimmy Kimmel hammered the movie’s sales. Kimmel called them a “rigged outcome.” Elsewhere in theaters, the Italy-set Kevin James romantic comedy “Solo Mio” debuted with a robust $7.2 million, a major win for Angel Studios, best known for its faith-based releases. “Stray Kids: The Dominate Experience,” a K-pop concert film released by Bleecker Street, launched with $5.6 million, and an additional $13.2 million overseas. The Luc Besson-directed Bram Stoker adaptation “Dracula” opened with $4.5 million, a studio-best debut for the indie distributor Vertical.
One of the most unusual releases in theaters, however, remains the low-budget indie “Iron Lung.” The YouTube filmmaker Markiplier, whose real name is Mark Fischbach, self-financed and self-distributed the R-rated video game adaptation, along with writing, directing and starring in it. In its second weekend, “Iron Lung” collected $6.2 million, bringing its two-week total to $31.2 million. It cost $3 million to make.
Top 10 movies by domestic box office
With final domestic figures being released Monday, this list factors in the estimated ticket sales for Friday through Sunday at U.S. and Canadian theaters, according to Comscore:
1. “Send Help,” $10 million.
2. “Solo Mio,” $7.2 million.
3. “Iron Lung,” $6 million.
4. “Stray Kids: The Dominate Experience,” $5.6 million.
5. “Dracula,” $4.5 million.
6. “Zootopia 2,” $4 million.
7. “Avatar: Fire and Ash,” $3.5 million.
8. “The Strangers: Chapter 3,” $3.5 million.
9. “Shelter,” $2.4 million.
10. “Melania,” $2.4 million.
The Dictatorship
Why Trump doesn’t want home prices to fall
WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump wants to keep home prices highbypassing calls to ramp up construction so people can afford what has been a ticket to the middle class.
Trump has instead argued for protecting existing owners who have watched the values of their homes climb. It’s a position that flies in the face of what many economists, the real estate industry, local officials and apartment dwellers say is needed to fix a big chunk of America’s affordability problem.
“I don’t want to drive housing prices down. I want to drive housing prices up for people that own their homes, and they can be assured that’s what’s going to happen,” Trump told his Cabinet on Jan. 29.
That approach could bolster the Republican president’s standing with older voters, a group that over time has been more likely to vote in midterm elections. Those races in November will determine whether Trump’s party can retain control of the House and Senate.
“You have a lot of people that have become wealthy in the last year because their house value has gone up,” Trump said. “And you know, when you get the housing — when you make it too easy and too cheap to buy houses — those values come down.”
But by catering to older baby boomers on housing, Trump risks alienating the younger voters who expanded his coalition in 2024 and helped him win a second term, and he could wade into a “generational war” in the midterms, said Brent Buchanan, whose polling firm Cygnal advises Republicans.
“The under-40 group is the most important right now — they are the ones who put Trump in the White House,” Buchanan said. “Their desire to show up in an election or not is going to make the difference in this election. If they feel that Donald Trump is taking care of the boomers at their expense, that is going to hurt Republicans.”
The logic in appealing to older voters
In the 2024 presidential election, 81% of Trump’s voters were homeowners, according to AP VoteCast data. This means many of his supporters already have mortgages with low rates or own their homes outright, possibly blunting the importance of housing as an issue.
Older voters tend to show up to vote more than do younger people, said Oscar Pocasangre, a senior data analyst at liberal think tank New America who has studied the age divide in U.S. politics. “However, appealing to older voters may prove to be a misguided policy if what’s needed to win is to expand the voting base,” Pocasangre said.
Before the 2026 elections, voters have consistently rated affordability as a top concern, and that is especially true for younger voters with regard to housing.
Booker Lightman, 30, a software engineer in Highlands Ranch, Colorado, who identifies politically as a libertarian Republican, said the shortage of housing has been a leading problem in his state.
Lightman just closed on a home last month, and while he and his wife, Alice, were able to manage the cost, he said that the lack of construction is pushing people out of Colorado. “There’s just not enough housing supply,” he said.
Shay Hata, a real estate agent in the Chicago and Denver areas, said she handles about 100 to 150 transactions a year. But she sees the potential for a lot more. “We have a lack of inventory to the point where most properties, particularly in the suburbs, are getting between five and 20 offers,” she said, describing what she sees in the Chicago area.
New construction could help more people afford homes because in some cases, buyers qualify for discounted mortgage rates from the builders’ preferred lenders, Hata said. She called the current situation “very discouraging for buyers because they’re getting priced out of the market.”
But pending construction has fallen under Trump. Permits to build single-family homes have plunged 9.4% over the past 12 months in October, the most recent month available, to an annual rate of 876,000, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
Trump’s other ideas to help people buy houses
Trump has not always been against increasing housing supply.
During the 2024 campaignTrump’s team said he would create tax breaks for homebuyers, trim regulations on construction, open up federal land for housing developments and make monthly payments more manageable by cutting mortgage rates. Advisers also claimed that housing stock would open up because of Trump’s push for mass deportations of people who were in the United States illegally.
As recently as October, Trump urged builders to ramp up construction. “They’re sitting on 2 Million empty lots, A RECORD. I’m asking Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to get Big Homebuilders going and, by so doing, help restore the American Dream!” Trump posted on social media, referring to the government-backed lenders.
But more recently, he has been unequivocal on not wanting to pursue policies that would boost supply and lower prices.
In office, Trump has so far focused his housing policy on lobbying the Federal Reserve to cut its benchmark interest rates. He believes that would make mortgages more affordable, although critics say it could spur higher inflation. Trump announced that the two mortgage companies, which are under government conservatorship, would buy at least $200 billion in home loan securities in a bid to reduce rates.
Trump also wants Congress to ban large financial institutions from buying homes. But he has rejected suggestions for expanding rules to let buyers use 401(k) retirement accounts for down payments, telling reporters that he did not want people to take their money out of the stock market because it was doing so well.
There are signs that lawmakers in both parties see the benefits of taking steps to add houses before this year’s elections. There are efforts in the Senate and House to jump-start construction through the use of incentives to change zoning restrictions, among other policies.
One of the underlying challenges on affordability is that home prices have been generally rising faster than incomes for several years.
This makes it harder to save for down payments or upgrade to a nicer home. It also means that the places where people live increasingly double as their key financial asset, one that leaves many families looking moneyed on paper even if they are struggling with monthly bills.
There is another risk for Trump. If the economy grows this year, as he has promised, that could push up demand for houses — as well as their prices — making the affordability problem more pronounced, said Edward Pinto, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, a center-right think tank.
Pinto said construction of single-family homes would have to rise by 50% to 100% during the next three years for average home price gains to be flat — a sign, he said, that Trump’s fears about falling home prices were probably unwarranted.
“It’s very hard to crater home prices,” Pinto said.
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