Congress
Johnson: Reconciliation path likely decided by Thursday
Republicans appear close to settling on a strategy for passing President-elect Donald Trump’s sweeping border security, energy and tax agenda.
House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) said in a brief interview Wednesday evening that House and Senate GOP leaders are likely to make a final decision by Thursday about how they’ll pursue the budget reconciliation process to enact their policy priorities and extend expiring tax cuts.
“We’re coordinating both chambers to align them and we’ll make those final decisions, I think, probably by tomorrow,” said Johnson.
Privately, House GOP leaders are optimistic key senators are getting behind Johnson’s push for one massive reconciliation bill, a procedural maneuver that allows the majority party to advance a legislative package without relying on the minority party’s votes.
However, there are still holdouts who are pushing for two separate reconciliation bills — one narrow measure dealing primarily with border security and energy policies and another addressing taxes more broadly. Trump, who prefers one bill but has waffled on his position lately, is meeting with Senate Republican leaders Wednesday night.
Johnson spent Wednesday meeting with Republicans in his office discussing a long list of potential spending cuts and myriad ways to pay for the bill. Several House Republicans said some more controversial offsets like Medicaid work requirements are still on the table.
Some House Republicans have estimated Trump’s initial sweeping wish list, which includes extending his suite of 2017 tax cuts, could total $10 trillion dollars, and will need at least $5 trillion in pay-fors. It’s possible, though, that GOP leaders could decide to measure the legislation’s cost against an increase in GDP, rather than using a bill “score” from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget office.
Johnson said he wasn’t sure yet where Republicans would land on spending offsets.
Several House Republicans said they believe it’s likely lawmakers will cobble together one huge bill and spending cuts, and then Trump will tell members the rest of the bill will be paid for with tariffs — a move that many Republicans say is not a viable spending offset and have groused about in private.
Congress
GOP angst grows over Powell investigation
A growing number of Republicans on Capitol Hill are expressing unease with the Justice Department’s move to investigate Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, a sign that the probe could become a major inflection point over GOP lawmakers’ concerns about central bank independence.
Powell announced Sunday that the DOJ is investigating him over statements to Congress about renovations of the Fed’s headquarters in Washington. He said the issue was a pretext to target him in response to President Donald Trump’s frustration over the Fed’s hesitance to aggressively lower interest rates.
Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.), a Powell critic who sits on the Senate Banking Committee, said in a statement Monday that “Jerome Powell is a bad Fed Chair who has been elusive with Congress, especially regarding the overruns of the elaborate renovations of the building.”
“I do not believe however, he is a criminal,” he said. “I hope this criminal investigation can be put to rest quickly along with the remainder of Jerome Powell’s term. We need to restore confidence in the Fed.”
Senate Banking Republicans are expected to meet tonight to discuss major cryptocurrency legislation the panel is aiming to hold a vote on this week — and some members are expecting to discuss the Powell probe as well, according to two Republicans with knowledge of the plan who were granted anonymity to discuss closed-door matters.
“There will be a lot of chatter,” said one of the Republicans.
The investigation is also a concern for some House Republicans. Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.), who sits on the House Financial Services Committee, told Blue Light News: “While I fundamentally believe Chairman Powell was late in addressing inflation under Joe Biden and has been woefully slow in lowering interest rates over the past year, the independence of the Federal Reserve is paramount and I oppose any effort to pressure them into action.”
Asked about the Powell investigation on Fox Business on Monday, Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) bashed the central bank chief and said the “president is sending a message to everybody that we’re going to be looking out for fraud, waste and abuse.” But, pressed by host Maria Bartiromo about whether Powell lied to Congress, Marshall said he would “let the system play through here,” and added: “I think there’s other issues that we should be focused on.”
The controversy over the renovations to the Fed’s Washington headquarters has been amplified by Senate Banking Republicans, including Chair Tim Scott (R-S.C.), who pressed Powell about the issue during a hearing last June following a New York Post article about cost overruns on the project.
Now, the DOJ probe is threatening to derail the Senate’s consideration of future Fed nominees. Sen. Thom Tillis, a retiring North Carolina Republican who sits on the Banking panel, said Sunday he will “oppose the confirmation of any nominee for the Fed—including the upcoming Fed Chair vacancy—until this legal matter is fully resolved.”
“If there were any remaining doubt whether advisers within the Trump Administration are actively pushing to end the independence of the Federal Reserve, there should now be none,” Tillis said in a statement. “It is now the independence and credibility of the Department of Justice that are in question.”
Congress
House GOP stock trading ban bill set for Wednesday markup
The House Administration Committee will hold a markup Wednesday morning on a closely-watched plan from GOP leadership to crack down on lawmaker insider trading, according to three people granted anonymity to share scheduling plans not yet made public.
The legislation from committee chair Bryan Steil and House GOP leaders would allow lawmakers to hold the current stocks they own but require a seven day notice before making sales, as POLITICO first reported. It also would bar lawmakers and their spouses from buying new stocks.
Speaker Mike Johnson and GOP leaders have been searching for a legislative compromise to appease Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.) and other rank-and-file House Republicans, who have for months been threatening to launch a discharge petition effort to circumvent leadership and force a floor vote on a full congressional stock trading ban.
Luna, in a promising sign for Johnson, said in an interview last week she supports the current legislation pending before the House Administration Committee because it would force a “disgorgement” period.
But the bill still faces an uphill climb. Senior House Democrats are deeply opposed to the plan and will seek to make changes, arguing the legislation does not constitute a full ban on congressional stock trading.
Key senators, including many Republicans, also deeply oppose any changes to the current rules around lawmaker stock trading, and it’s possible the Senate doesn’t take up the legislation at all should the measure pass the House.
Congress
Capitol agenda: Trump tests GOP with Fed probe
President Donald Trump is once again forcing a tough fealty test on GOP lawmakers — this time over the fate of the Federal Reserve and Chair Jerome Powell.
The Fed chair’s Sunday night revelation of a DOJ probe into the central bank immediately rattled a number of Capitol Hill Republicans and raised serious doubts about the confirmation of Trump’s upcoming pick to succeed Powell.
“Will they stop at nothing to force their way on everything?” one senior House Republican granted anonymity told Blue Light News. “The administration is setting a standard they cannot achieve themselves and will haunt us all for a generation.”
The DOJ move is the epic culmination of Trump’s years of enmity toward Powell over interest rates. It may be the point at which Republicans who believe in Fed independence — and who are generally fans of Powell — can no longer stand on the sidelines.
Powell himself, whom DOJ is scrutinizing over Senate testimony about office building renovations, is pushing back like never before. Powell is warning out loud that it all comes down to whether monetary policy “will be directed by political pressure or intimidation.”
Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) is now threatening to use his seat on Senate Banking to derail the confirmation of Powell’s successor. Assuming no Democrats voted for the yet-to-be-named nominee, it would only take Tillis to stand in the way of the pick from being reported out of committee.
“If there were any remaining doubt whether advisers within the Trump Administration are actively pushing to end the independence of the Federal Reserve, there should now be none,” Tillis said. “It is now the independence and credibility of the Department of Justice that are in question.”
The latest Trump rift comes as Senate Republicans are poised to defy the president later this week when the chamber votes on whether to check his war powers in Venezuela.
The Senate is currently looking at Wednesday to hold a vote-a-rama before final passage of the war powers resolution. Republican leaders are trying to flip at least some of the five GOP senators who agreed to advance the measure last week and enraged Trump.
“We’ll see what happens,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune told Blue Light News. “I can’t make any predictions at this point, but I think you have to be prepared for all contingencies but also realize you’ve got to pivot and move forward.”
Democrats hope GOP support stays firm — or even increases — as Trump floats the prospect of military action elsewhere, including Iran.
What else we’re watching:
— What’s next in government funding: House GOP leaders want to pass the latest bicameral, bipartisan funding deal as soon as Wednesday, after appropriators nailed down a two-bill package consisting of State-Foreign Operations and Financial Services.
Appropriators were hoping to include a third bill to fund DHS but were unable to reach an agreement after last week’s fatal ICE shooting in Minneapolis created new complications.
Senate leaders are working to clear the previous appropriations minibus the House passed last week for the departments of Justice, Interior, Energy and Commerce.
— Senate negotiators close in on ACA deal: A bipartisan Senate group is poised to release a plan as soon as Tuesday or Wednesday to revive expired Obamacare subsidies, according to Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio), one of the negotiators.
The main sticking point is how to address the use of federal funds for abortions. The bipartisan Senate group is expected to meet Monday night to continue talks.
Meredith Lee Hill, Jordain Carney, Jennifer Scholtes and Katherine Tully-McManus contributed to this report.
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