Politics

Is all hope lost for Senate Democrats? Sherrod Brown doesn’t think so.

Published

2 years ago

November 11, 2024

jmfourrier@outlook.com

Is all hope lost for Senate Democrats? Sherrod Brown doesn’t think so.

Nov. 4, 2024, 11:51 PM UTC

By Ali Vitali

This election was always going to be a tough game of defense for Senate Democrats, seven of whom are campaigning against heavy political headwinds in pro-Trump or battleground states that the former president has won in past elections.

The seat currently held by Sen. Joe Manchin (a longtime Democrat who recently switched to independent) is all but assured to go red, notching Republicans at least one flipped seat. But in deep red Montana and slightly less red Ohio, Trump allegiance hasn’t guaranteed an easy road to victory for Republicans.

In deep red Montana and slightly less red Ohio, Trump allegiance hasn’t guaranteed an easy road to victory for Republicans.

Polls show the Ohio contest as a true toss-up as Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown battles MAGA-aligned businessman Bernie Moreno. And in Montana, GOP challenger Tim Sheehy has a slight lead over Democrat Sen. Jon Tester, but only by an average of 5 points according to 538 — a far cry from the state’s average 18-point lean for Trump (also according to 538).

That’s due in large part to the profiles Tester and Brown cut in their states. Images of Tester atop a tractor on his farm are not just every-six-year gimmicks for re-election in a rural state. And neither is Brown’s pro-union commitment to the “dignity of work,” embodied by his ever-present canary pin gifted by a steelworker.

To further assert their independence, Tester and Brown have sought to distance themselves from national Democratic figures, including President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris, while staying mostly mum on Donald Trump.

Brown, in a recent interview with me, noted: “I don’t really care what the presidential candidates are talking about.”

If these seats can be held, it’s ticket-splitting voters who will likely get them there — the question is how many of them are out there.

“There will be enough,” Brown said after an event in the Mahoning Valley, an area that Democrats held until Trump turned it red. Brown has managed to win some of these key counties in the past.

“I say this, and it’s not a cliche, that people don’t see politics — I don’t see politics — as left to right,” he said.

Talking with Ohio voters in Lorain County, outside Cleveland, at least one voter, Julianna, told me she saw it the way Brown did. She’ll be voting Trump for president and Brown for Senate.

In Butte, Montana, our NBC News team met 27-year old Tim Combo on the second floor of the Western States Carpenters Union hall. “I came up here to vote for Jon Tester,” he said. “And I am going to vote for Donald Trump, as well.”

In five other key Senate contests — Nevada, Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — Democrats have broadly been able to hold Republicans to toss-ups. The Cook Political Report currently classifies Arizona and Nevada as leaning Democratic.

And in Texas, a rare possible pick-up opportunity for Democrats, Rep. Colin Allred is making a true go of it against GOP Sen. Ted Cruz, though his Lone Star Senate campaign remains a long shot.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee doesn’t seem too worried, with a top official confidently telling NBC News that “Ohio will be the 51st” seat, giving Republicans the majority. Still, Brown, for one, exudes the kind of optimism that only comes from having outperformed political dynamics before.

“I’m gonna win,” Brown said. “Because of people like this that have stood up for the public, and stood up for workers, and stood up for consumers, and stood up for a cleaner Lake Erie, and stood up for all the things that, that people just want a shot in life.”

Ali Vitali

Ali Vitali is a Capitol Hill correspondent for NBC News, based in Washington. She is the author of “Electable: Why America Hasn’t Put a Woman in the White House … Yet.”

Politics

The top of Arizona’s GOP ticket is littered with 2020 election deniers

Published

6 minutes ago

July 22, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

To make it out of a Republican primary in Arizona, there’s one key litmus test: believing the 2020 election was stolen from Donald Trump.

Election deniers who played prominent roles in efforts to overturn the 2020 results triumphed in statewide Republican primaries Tuesday, from Rep. Andy Biggs for governor to state Rep. Alexander Kolodin for secretary of state. State Senate President Warren Petersen was leading his primary for attorney general, though his race was not yet called as of early Wednesday morning.

Biggs, a staunch Trump ally who helped try and overturn the election on Jan. 6, 2021, was later subpoenaed in an Arizona probe. Kolodin represented a slate of fake electors, leading to discipline from the Arizona state bar, and filed lawsuits to try to overturn both the 2020 and 2022 elections. Petersen launched a taxpayer-funded audit into Maricopa County’s election system that eventually led to a subpoena.

Their victories show GOP primary voters continue to prefer candidates who have pushed false narratives about elections or worked to overturn them. But that can prove toxic in November — and Democrats plan to make their rivals pay for those positions in the fall.

“It’s one of those things that just won’t go away,” said former Rep. Matt Salmon (R-Ariz.). “In the Republican Party in Arizona, in the primary, carrying the Trump line on virtually everything — and that includes election denialism — is still something that benefits you.”

But in the general election, “it’s a stone around your neck,” Salmon said. “Among independents and moderate Republicans who vote in the general election, election denialism is not an asset.”

Each of the triumphant election deniers Tuesday centered election integrity in their 2026 campaigns. Biggs has been a prominent supporter of the SAVE America Act, the stalled election bill that Trump has pushed repeatedly. Kolodin has advocated for ending Arizona’s permanent early voting list and for stringent ID requirements. And Petersen has pledged to expand the attorney general office’s election integrity unit in order to investigate election results. Arizona was one of the most competitive — and most contested — states in the 2020 election. Fox News’ decision to declare then-candidate Joe Biden’s victory in the state on election night sent shockwaves through Trump’s orbit. It took then-Republican Gov. Doug Ducey several weeks to acknowledge Biden won.

The Grand Canyon State became ground zero for Trump’s effort to overturn the election. Trump and his allies pressured Arizona leaders, including then-House Speaker Rusty Bowers, to call the legislature back into session and recall the state’s slate of electors. A group of Republicans falsely posing as alternate electors were later charged with forgery, fraud and conspiracy, a case that is ongoing.

Even still, running as an election denier hasn’t been a successful strategy for the Arizona GOP once November rolls around. In 2022, Arizona Republicans nominated hardline election deniers up and down the ballot — Kari Lake for governor, Blake Masters for U.S. Senate, and Mark Finchem for secretary of state — and saw losses in each race, even as Republicans nationally enjoyed an otherwise strong year. And in 2024, Lake again lost, this time for U.S. Senate, even as Trump won the state by more than five percentage points.

“Biggs and Kolodin will be saddled with election denialism for the next three months,” said longtime Arizona GOP strategist Barrett Marson. “While Democrats would be wise to focus on affordability, certainly some of their talking points will focus on how these two are dangerous for democracy.”

Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs, who ran unopposed in the Democratic primary Tuesday and will face Biggs in November, served as secretary of state during the 2020 election. She has portrayed this year’s gubernatorial election as a contrast between confidence and conspiracy in the state’s election system.

“Arizona is one of seven swing states that will decide the presidential election,” Hobbs said during an MS NOW appearance Tuesday evening. “If Andy Biggs is governor, Arizona is the first swing state with an election denier in charge, and the time to stop that is not 2028. It is right now.”

It’s almost impossible to be a Republican officeholder without agreeing with the president on the 2020 election and the need to dramatically change election law.

“As long as Donald Trump, who has the bully pulpit and is the party leader … is talking about election integrity, it will be a top issue in GOP primaries,” said one Arizona Republican strategist, granted anonymity to discuss the issue candidly.

“Election integrity measures are broadly popular, but the issue being front and center highlights divisions about Jan. 6th and wasn’t a winning general election issue in 2022,” the strategist continued. “Not sure that general election voters will care much about that in 2026 with such a focus on affordability issues. We are about to find out!”

Trump, for his part, has proven unwilling to move past the 2020 election even after winning a return to the White House in 2024. He has never acknowledged he lost that election, and in a primetime speech last Thursday, he announced his administration would declassify documents he alleged show Chinese interference in the 2020 race.

“Our elections were left vulnerable to being rigged and stolen, and the trust of the American people was lost,” Trump said Thursday. “This cannot be allowed to continue.”

Politics

Trump-backed Jay Feely wins GOP primary in Arizona’s battleground 1st District

Published

2 hours ago

July 22, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

Former Arizona Cardinals kicker Jay Feely cruised to victory in Arizona’s 1st District on Tuesday, one of the nation’s most competitive battlegrounds.

Feely, a close ally of President Donald Trump, leveraged Trump’s endorsement to topple former state Rep. Joseph Chaplik.

He’ll face a steep challenge defeating the Democratic nominee in November: The 1st District, which spans the affluent suburbs north of Phoenix, is one of House Democrats’ top targets after Trump won it by just three points in 2024. Feely is looking to keep the seat under GOP control amid a midterm year that presents major headwinds for the party.

Politics

Rep. Andy Biggs wins GOP primary for Arizona governor

Published

2 hours ago

July 22, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

Trump-endorsed Rep. Andy Biggs has won the GOP primary to face Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs in November, setting up a marquee governor’s race in one of America’s most competitive states.

Biggs, a former chair of the hardline House Freedom Caucus and a close ally of President Donald Trump, easily dealt with his only serious challenger, Rep. David Schweikert, on Tuesday. Before the primary results were official, he had already begun pivoting to the general election against Hobbs, who is seen as one of the most vulnerable Democratic governors this fall.

Republicans feel bullish about their odds of flipping the governorship, after Trump carried the state by five points in 2024. But even though Trump won last time, the state has gradually shifted to pure tossup territory over the past few years, electing Democrats to both Senate seats, as well as the attorney general and secretary of state’s offices.

Hobbs had already shifted her focus to Biggs as well. Her campaign has amassed a significant warchest for the race and has already started running ads. Biggs, given his lack of a significant primary challenge, has been able to hold onto more cash than his GOP rivals, but is still behind Hobbs.

The race will test whether Republicans, who are starting down a potentially bruising midterm cycle, can reclaim the top office of a state that has long been a place of success for the party.

During the Republican primary debate, Biggs spent more time talking about his working relationship with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Arizona Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly than he did flexing his endorsement from Trump or highlighting his House record, including his time atop the Freedom Caucus. Instead, he tried to refocus on his bipartisanship in Congress and his leadership in the state legislature.

“I know how to reach across the aisle,” Biggs said during the debate.

But he will still have to contend with many of his past stances, including his role in trying to overturn the 2020 election.

And Hobbs is already working to ensure voters know where Biggs stands on key issues as a longtime member of the House, including his anti-abortion positions and his role in 2020. Her campaign has repeatedly attacked him as “too extreme” for the state and has dubbed him “basement Biggs” for keeping a relatively low profile throughout the GOP primary.