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Is all hope lost for Senate Democrats? Sherrod Brown doesn’t think so.

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Is all hope lost for Senate Democrats? Sherrod Brown doesn’t think so.

By Ali Vitali

This election was always going to be a tough game of defense for Senate Democrats, seven of whom are campaigning against heavy political headwinds in pro-Trump or battleground states that the former president has won in past elections.

The seat currently held by Sen. Joe Manchin (a longtime Democrat who recently switched to independent) is all but assured to go red, notching Republicans at least one flipped seat. But in deep red Montana and slightly less red Ohio, Trump allegiance hasn’t guaranteed an easy road to victory for Republicans.

In deep red Montana and slightly less red Ohio, Trump allegiance hasn’t guaranteed an easy road to victory for Republicans.

Polls show the Ohio contest as a true toss-up as Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown battles MAGA-aligned businessman Bernie Moreno. And in Montana, GOP challenger Tim Sheehy has a slight lead over Democrat Sen. Jon Tester, but only by an average of 5 points according to 538 — a far cry from the state’s average 18-point lean for Trump (also according to 538).

That’s due in large part to the profiles Tester and Brown cut in their states. Images of Tester atop a tractor on his farm are not just every-six-year gimmicks for re-election in a rural state. And neither is Brown’s pro-union commitment to the “dignity of work,” embodied by his ever-present canary pin gifted by a steelworker.

To further assert their independence, Tester and Brown have sought to distance themselves from national Democratic figures, including President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris, while staying mostly mum on Donald Trump.

Brown, in a recent interview with me, noted: “I don’t really care what the presidential candidates are talking about.”

If these seats can be held, it’s ticket-splitting voters who will likely get them there — the question is how many of them are out there.

“There will be enough,” Brown said after an event in the Mahoning Valley, an area that Democrats held until Trump turned it red. Brown has managed to win some of these key counties in the past. 

“I say this, and it’s not a cliche, that people don’t see politics — I don’t see politics — as left to right,” he said.

Talking with Ohio voters in Lorain County, outside Cleveland, at least one voter, Julianna, told me she saw it the way Brown did. She’ll be voting Trump for president and Brown for Senate. 

In Butte, Montana, our NBC News team met 27-year old Tim Combo on the second floor of the Western States Carpenters Union hall. “I came up here to vote for Jon Tester,” he said. “And I am going to vote for Donald Trump, as well.”

In five other key Senate contests — Nevada, Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — Democrats have broadly been able to hold Republicans to toss-ups. The Cook Political Report currently classifies Arizona and Nevada as leaning Democratic.

And in Texas, a rare possible pick-up opportunity for Democrats, Rep. Colin Allred is making a true go of it against GOP Sen. Ted Cruz, though his Lone Star Senate campaign remains a long shot.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee doesn’t seem too worried, with a top official confidently telling NBC News that “Ohio will be the 51st” seat, giving Republicans the majority. Still, Brown, for one, exudes the kind of optimism that only comes from having outperformed political dynamics before.

“I’m gonna win,” Brown said. “Because of people like this that have stood up for the public, and stood up for workers, and stood up for consumers, and stood up for a cleaner Lake Erie, and stood up for all the things that, that people just want a shot in life.”

Ali Vitali

Ali Vitali is a Capitol Hill correspondent for NBC News, based in Washington. She is the author of “Electable: Why America Hasn’t Put a Woman in the White House … Yet.”

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2028 Dem veteran? Uncle Sam wants you.

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In the 15 days since President Donald Trump launched Operation Epic Fury on Iran, Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) is approaching nearly a dozen media appearances, offering his often visceral reaction to the conflict.

Gallego, a 46-year-old combat veteran who deployed to Iraq as an infantryman in 2005, has emerged as a blunt, clear voice for the Democratic Party on foreign policy, speaking as someone whose own generation experienced the forever wars.

There he was on BLN’s “The Source with Kaitlin Collins” saying Secretary of State Marco Rubio was doing “CYA” and noting that the “MAGA base is pissed.” There he was sitting down with the AP speaking “as someone who lives with PTSD,” adding “it’s not been an easy week.” And there he was on Derek Thompson’s podcast, speaking about “going town to town searching for insurgents” 21 years ago, “but there was no clear direction of what victory looked like, what the end goal was, what was going to be the after-action report on Iraq.”

Gallego isn’t alone. Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.), a Navy captain who flew combat missions during Operation Desert Storm in 1990, has also racked up a run of high-profile media appearances, as has former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, a U.S. Navy Reserve intelligence officer who deployed to Afghanistan. Maryland Gov. Wes Moore, who served in Afghanistan in the Army’s 82nd Airborne, went on local radio this week to link Americans’ affordability woes to the war.

In a year after many Democrats pined for a metaphorical fighter, the party is now having a conversation with itself about whether it needs a literal fighter — a veteran who can speak with credibility on issues of war and national security.

In an interview with Blue Light News, Gallego spoke of “dodging bullets, IEDs, RPGs, clearing towns and then coming back to the same towns with insurgents” and of “losing friends and still not understanding what the end goal was the whole time.”

“It leaves a mark on you, and you start seeing it happening again, you know, you don’t really think about the politics,” Gallego said. “You think about the people who are going to be potentially dying. And that’s why I think I was not hesitant to speak my mind on that.”

Later this month in San Antonio, Texas, Gallego will join VoteVets Action for its third town hall featuring potential 2028 Democratic presidential candidates, promising “fresh voices to the national conversation — those who have worn the uniform and served alongside us, who connect with everyday Americans others can’t,” according to a promotional video. (They’ve also done town halls with Buttigieg and Michigan Sen. Elissa Slotkin.)

“On foreign policy, the Dems need a candidate who is seen as strong/tough — not in rhetoric or bravado political platitudes but who conveys a sense of judgement and resolve with which voters connect instinctively,” said Doug Wilson, the former assistant secretary of Defense for Public Affairs during the Obama administration and co-lead of Buttigieg’s 2020 foreign policy team.

The “Iran war underscores the need” for such a candidate, Wilson added.

Whomever the Democrats select as their nominee could potentially face a Situation Room-steeped ticket deep with national security credentials, including a Marine Iraq war veteran in Vice President JD Vance or Rubio, with his secretary of State experience.

Depending on how the many conflicts the U.S. is engaged in at the moment resolve, that experience could cut against them.

But right now, Democrats who can match those bona fides have some currency others without them can’t.

“That’s obviously going to be helpful to them,” said Matt Bennett, co-founder of the center-left think tank Third Way. “It’s gonna be a big part of what they’re talking about for the next little while. But you know, how long does it last? We just don’t know, right? In my professional lifetime, foreign policy stuff and national security has mattered in a presidential race once — in 2004. That’s it. Otherwise, it comes up, but it’s not driving the conversation.”

Some potential Democratic candidates without such credentials have still managed to break through amid the Iran news cycle. Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) has said the White House has treated aspects of the war “as a video game,” in a clip gaining traction on X. “When American service members killed in action are returning to the United States in flagged-draped coffins, and even more Americans have lost limbs or suffered terrible brain injuries or are fighting for their lives, this White House treats war like a game, and it’s a disgrace,” Ossoff said.

When asked whether military service is an essential for the party’s eventual nominee, Gallego acknowledged there is a benefit for someone who can “speak with that type of credibility.”

“I’m not the type of person that’s like, ‘you have to be a veteran — Iraq War veteran,’” Gallego said. “This is a democracy. We’re still one, and there’s a lot of people that can bring valuable experience and knowledge. But you know, someone that actually has a nuanced understanding of foreign policy; that doesn’t go to the total knee-jerk reactionism that sometimes we see where we go to the point of, you know, isolationism; or the other way, where we go to full neocon. There needs to be a very balanced way to how we approach the world.”

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House Republicans find it difficult to focus on rising costs as they plot 2026 agenda

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Cornyn backs ending filibuster as he courts Trump’s endorsement

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