Iowa looks competitive, according to new Dem poll

Iowa looks to be seriously in play for Democrats in November up and down the ballot, according to a new survey from a Democratic group that backs moderate candidates.

Iowa State Auditor Rob Sand holds an eight-point lead in the governor’s race, and Republicans hold slim leads in both the Senate race and the generic statewide ballot for Congress, according to the survey conducted by Democratic pollster GBAO for the center-left ModSquad, a group led by Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada, who endorsed Turek.

The poll found President Donald Trump is underwater in the red state, with 50 percent unfavorable and 45 percent favorable ratings. Sand led GOP Rep. Randy Feenstra by 50 percent to 42 percent, while Democrats trailed in the generic ballot by 46 percent to 44 percent.

In the Senate race, GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson leads state Sen. Zach Wahls by 47 percent to 44 percent and state Rep. Josh Turek by 47 percent to 43 percent. The poll surveyed 1,200 likely voters from March 10-16 with a 2.8 percent margin of error.

Democrats have been regularly let down in recent years by other polls showing them in a stronger position than the reality in Iowa, and partisan polls should always be taken with a grain of salt. And so far, there has been scant independent public polling of these contests. But Republicans have indicated that they see a potentially competitive race shaping up in Iowa this time around: The Senate Leadership Fund, Senate Republicans’ main super PAC, already reserved $29 million in ad spending there in the fall, making it one of five GOP-held states where they’ve made a major investment as they fight to keep the majority.

The memo’s aim is to show that their preferred candidate, Turek, would be the stronger general election candidate. After sharing favorable and critical messages on the three candidates, the poll finds that Hinson maintains her lead on Wahls, while Turek pulls ahead of Hinson.

“In this environment, Democratic candidates Josh Turek and Zach Wahls both begin within striking distance of Republican Ashley Hinson,” the polling memo notes. “But Turek emerges as the stronger general election candidate: after balanced messaging, he moves ahead of Hinson, while Wahls continues to trail.”

Hinson begins the race underwater, with a 23 percent favorable to 31 percent unfavorable rating. Turek and Wahls are less well-known, with 34 percent and 49 percent name recognition.

After voters hear positive messages and attacks on each candidate, Turek moves ahead while Wahls still falls short. “Notably, Turek makes substantial gains among independents over the course of the survey, shifting the net vote margin 7 points in his favor and opening up a 17-point lead with them,” according to the polling memo.

The memo says Turek, a basketball Paralympian, has more room to grow after voters hear his profile: 62 percent say Turek’s profile is a convincing reason to vote for him compared with 51 percent for Wahls and 48 percent for Hinson.

But the memo didn’t share the messages the poll tested, making it impossible to discern if that message test is a fair or accurate test of how the general election might play out.