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Inside Connolly and Ocasio-Cortez’s race to lock down votes for top Oversight Democratic job

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With days to go until House Democrats decide who gets top committee spot, Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York and Gerry Connolly of Virginia are racing to lock down votes to lead their party on the Oversight and Accountability panel.

Many Democrats saw Ocasio-Cortez as having the upper hand heading into next week, but both Connolly and Ocasio-Cortez’s camps are confident of their chances, with Connolly’s supporters saying they will have the support of a majority of the caucus and the Steering Committee. Ocasio-Cortez also has a team working to whip votes in her favor, said a person granted anonymity to discuss her operation.

The powerful Steering and Policy Committee will convene on Monday to debate and vote on recommendations to the full caucus for the committee leadership positions. Then, the full caucus will vote Tuesday morning on the committee contenders. The caucus generally follows the steering panel’s recommendations.

Connolly’s supporters believe they have roughly 130 yes or lean yes votes, according to a House Democrat granted anonymity to discuss the Virginia lawmaker’s whip count. There are 215 members of the Democratic Caucus next Congress. The House Democrat added that they were “confident” that Connolly had “locked up” both a majority of the Steering Committee and the full caucus.

“Gerry has the support of a majority of the Democratic Caucus. We are confident he will be the top Democrat on the House Oversight Committee, and I think he will be very good at that job,” said a senior Democratic aide close to Connolly’s whipping process.

Ocasio-Cortez and her allies, meanwhile, have been having conversations with a broad cross-section of the caucus as she tries to rally support for her bid. She and Connolly made closed-door presentations to the Democratic Caucus’ power centers — the tri-caucus of affinity groups and the ideological caucuses — and they’ve also quietly approached their fellow lawmakers on the House floor as they laid out their vision for the panel. The recent backing of key Democratic constituencies and belief that they have the backing of most current Oversight Committee members has bolstered the confidence of Ocasio-Cortez’s allies. Democrats see the high-profile panel as a foil to President-elect Donald Trump and his allies.

The race in many ways is a test of how far Democrats will go as they face a pent-up urge to make sweeping generational changes within the caucus, a yearslong push that threatened to boil over post-election. Democrats don’t have term limits for their panel heads, leading to grumbling among younger Democrats whose paths upward have been stifled.

Top Democratic leaders are all publicly professing neutrality in the ranking member contests and say they’ll let the caucus work its will. But former leaders aren’t bound by the same concerns.

Connolly has a powerful backer in his corner: Former Speaker Nancy Pelosi has been privately stumping for Connolly, a longtime ally, and making calls on his behalf, according to three people familiar with the situation. She’s also been boosting her fellow Californians Rep. Jared Huffman for the Natural Resources Committee and Rep. Jim Costa for the Agriculture Committee. Punchbowl News earlier reported the Pelosi outreach.

Democrats mounted challenges to committee leaders who had faced questions about their attendance and ability to serve as ranking members amid health struggles. Rep. Jerry Nadler (D-N.Y.) stepped out of the Judiciary race, and Rep. Raul Grijalva (D-Ariz.) also ended his committee bid. Rep. David Scott (D-Ga.) has stayed in the race to be the top Agriculture Committee Democrat despite strong challengers.

But Connolly supporters reject any comparison between their race against Ocasio-Cortez and the other Democrat-on-Democrat battles and specifically point to Pelosi’s support for him. The former speaker has been unflinching in her work over the past year to pressure Democrats she feels are no longer up to the job, including President Joe Biden and reportedly Nadler, to give up their positions.

Connolly said he was diagnosed with cancer in a statement after the election. In private conversations as he sought the top Oversight spot, the House Democrat said, Connolly has pledged to his colleagues that he will be transparent about the status of his diagnosis, including if it were to unexpectedly worsen.

Connolly ran for the top Oversight job last Congress, ultimately losing to Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.), who’s jumping to be the top Judiciary panel Democrat. A second House Democrat, granted anonymity to disclose private discussions, said that Raskin has told colleagues he is staying neutral in the race to succeed him at least until the Judiciary race is settled.

Some ideological lines were drawn too, with Ocasio-Cortez winning the Progressive Caucus endorsement and Connolly winning the endorsement of the centrist New Democrat Coalition’s leadership. Ocasio-Cortez won the Congressional Hispanic Caucus’ endorsement as well, though at least one of its members — Rep. Linda Sanchez (D-Calif.), the chair of its political arm — is whipping for Connolly, according to the first House Democrat granted anonymity. New York Rep. Gregory Meeks (D) is also whipping for Connolly.

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House Dems launch ads in four more Trump districts

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House Democrats’ campaign arm is expanding its target list just three weeks ahead of Election Day, going on the air for the first time in four more districts with coordinated ad buys with the candidates.

The move, part of $13 million in coordinated ads launching this week across 39 districts and first shared with Blue Light News, is the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s largest reach of investments this cycle as Republicans are working to defend a slew of redder seats in the final stretch.

The new districts include a toss-up race in Florida’s newly redrawn 22nd District, which Trump would have won by 10 points in 2024, as well as for Democrats’ uphill fight to defend Maine’s 2nd District, which President Donald Trump carried by nine points and where Democratic Rep. Jared Golden is retiring.

They’re also launching coordinated ads in New Jersey’s swingy 7th District, squarely within New York City’s expensive media market, where Democrats are working to unseat GOP Rep. Tom Kean Jr.

The coordinated ad buys also include Texas’s redrawn 35th District, where Democrat Johnny Garcia is running neck and neck with Republican Carlos De La Cruz in a suburban San Antonio district Republicans drew to win that Trump would have carried by 10 points.

The DCCC’s move comes as President Donald Trump’s MAGA Inc.-aligned super PAC and a leading House GOP super PAC are planning to ditch spending in a group of House races in the coming days, as they race to shore up other House seats and salvage the Senate GOP majority.

“As Republicans pull out of media markets and cede that they are no longer competitive in multiple districts, the DCCC is continuing to go on the offensive,” DCCC National Political Director Brooke Butler said.

The NRCC has been up with ads in the four districts for weeks.

“While Democrats are just now scraping together the cash to bail out their radical socialists in critical battleground districts, House Republicans have been dominating the airwaves in those same districts and dozens more for weeks,” NRCC spokesperson Mike Marinella said. “The DCCC is desperately playing catch-up where Republicans have already lapped them.”

The DCCC didn’t share the exact size of the specific coordinated ad buys, only saying they were six-figure commitments.

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Mary Peltola raises $17 million in Q3 in Alaska’s Senate race

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Former Rep. Mary Peltola raked in $17 million over the last three months, her campaign shared first with Blue Light News, a sizable haul for the Democratic challenger in one of the biggest Senate battlegrounds.

It’s Peltola’s largest quarterly fundraising total in her bid to oust GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan. Her campaign also said it’s a record third-quarter sum for a Senate candidate in Alaska.

“Alaskans are sick and tired of DC politicians making life more expensive for everyone while they keep lining their own pockets, and they know it’s time for a change,” Peltola said in a statement thanking her supporters.

That total includes nearly $3 million in Peltola raised in July, before Alaska’s all-party primary in August, which was previously reported to the Federal Election Commission. Peltola’s campaign did not release her cash on hand for the quarter that ended Oct. 1.

Sullivan’s campaign has not yet released his third-quarter numbers. Sullivan had just under $7.3 million in cash on hand as of July 29, while Peltola had $4.6 million at that point.

Alaska has emerged as a core battleground this cycle as both parties reorient around redder states while Georgia and North Carolina tilt toward Democrats. Recent polls show a tight race.

Republicans are racing to shore up Sullivan in the four-way, ranked-choice general election in which the senator is also facing a same-name challenger in retired teacher Dan J. Sullivan. Some in the party fear he could siphon votes from the incumbent.

President Donald Trump is heading to Alaska for a rally later Tuesday in Wasilla that Sullivan is slated to attend, the senator’s campaign confirmed. Vice President JD Vance swung through the state last week.

Peltola’s fundraising prowess has helped her hold her own on the airwaves. Republicans hold a slim spending advantage on the TV ad reservations for the final three weeks of the campaign, with both parties posting over $9 million in reservations, per tracker AdImpact.

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Capitol agenda: GOP readies for an underwhelming lame duck

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Republicans’ dreams of a productive lame-duck session are dimming.

Members returning to Washington post-election will have a mere 24 legislative days to get through a considerable list of must-pass bills and possibly messy internal leadership fights. That’s if they can overcome a potential transition of power on Capitol Hill and a foul national mood.

Lawmakers’ must-do list includes: an extension of government funding past Dec. 11 and the annual Pentagon policy bill. Major legislation to reauthorize farm, transportation and surveillance programs are also on deck.

Then there are pending bipartisan bills overhauling energy permitting and the college sports industry that many members are itching to get done.

And finally, leaders had deferred some GOP priorities — such as another party-line reconciliation bill or debt-limit increase through the end of President Donald Trump’s term.

All of the measures face their own potential political minefields individually, as well as a number of obstacles across the board:

— ATTENDANCE: There will be little incentive for lawmakers who just lost their seats — “free-range chickens,” some call them — to grind out legislative wins, if they come back at all.

“The question becomes: Who shows up for work after the elections?” Rep. Austin Scott said in an interview. “Attendance is an issue right now.”

— NEW LEVERAGE: If Democrats win control of either chamber, they’ll likely seek greater influence on legislation to push back on Trump’s actions.

For example, Democrats are fuming over the Trump administration’s recent decision to block roughly $1 billion in congressionally approved funding, which could complicate any deal on spending legislation. They’ve also blocked the annual Pentagon policy bill amid a standoff over the Iran war; and they may push for more concessions on the permitting deal.

“The lame duck will be quite different if we win the Senate,” Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said in a recent interview.

— GOP DISPUTES: While some Republicans believe that losing a chamber would jump-start the reconciliation process, others privately believe the exact opposite would happen, with incentives waning for exiting lawmakers, according to three GOP aides granted anonymity to speak candidly.

Other GOP senators, like Sen. Cynthia Lummis, are skeptical of a debt-limit increase.

A Democratic flip of the House could also spark a potentially chaotic cascade of GOP leadership elections (more on that below).

Sen. John Kennedy speculated Congress’ agenda would all come down to the vibes of the GOP conference when they returned.

“You have no idea what the mood is going to be,” Kennedy said.

What else we’re watching: 

— JOHNSON SCRAMBLES LEADERSHIP OUTLOOK:  Republicans are reassessing the dynamics of potential leadership races after Speaker Mike Johnson‘s comments Monday that he would run for minority leader if the GOP loses the House — just days after he floated leaving Congress altogether in that scenario. Many Republicans had predicted Johnson would step aside with a House flip, likely setting off a race between Majority Leader Steve Scalise and Judiciary Chair Jim Jordan for the top GOP spot. If Johnson stays put, his success may depend on the severity of the party’s loss and if Trump weighs in for a certain candidate. “I hope he’s smarter than that,” one House Republican said of Johnson’s consideration of the minority leader role. “It would end very badly and cause unnecessary damage to the conference.”

— DEMS GEAR UP ON TRADE OVERSIGHT — Democrats on the House Ways and Means, Senate Finance and other panels say Trump’s trade deals were corrupt, and they’re already lining up targets to probe. The party knows it can’t repeal Trump’s tariffs as long as he’s in the White House, but if they win control of Congress, they plan to haul in top administration officials and possibly executives to explain how Trump picked his targets in his trade war — and if others got a pass through suspected quid pro quos.

Jordain Carney, Daniel Desrochers and Oliver Ward contributed to this report.

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