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The Dictatorship

If Trump is contemplating defying the Supreme Court, he should remember Nixon first

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If Trump is contemplating defying the Supreme Court, he should remember Nixon first

President Donald Trump’s flurry of executive orders seems destined for a showdown at the Supreme Court. Members of Trump’s administration — including Vice President JD Vance and tech billionaire Elon Musk — are already raising the possibility of defying the court should it rule against the administration. This raises the stakes for the court: a ruling against Trump risks the executive branch’s defiance, which could damage the court’s legitimacy.

Will Trump comply with its rulings? What will be the consequences of defiance? These are questions not only of law, but also of politics.

There are many historical examples that shed light on what the political fallout might look like, but perhaps the best comes from the final months of Richard Nixon’s presidency, in 1974.

Forced into a corner, Nixon complied with the court’s ruling.

Nixon had secretly taped conversations in the Oval Office, with some of the recordings containing evidence about the Watergate cover-up. In April 1974, special prosecutor Leon Jaworski subpoenaed the recordings as part of his investigation. In U.S. v. Nixonthe Supreme Court ordered Nixon to hand over the tapes.

The court’s opinion, written by Nixon-appointed Chief Justice Warren Burger, left the president with two options. He could comply with the court and deal with the fallout. Or he could defy it and send the country into a constitutional crisis — something he apparently did privately consider.

The political context is important. By the time of the Supreme Court’s ruling, Nixon’s political capital had collapsed. His approval rating hovered around 24%and his fellow Republicans in Congress had abandoned him. Everyone — including the justices — knew that ignoring the court would probably result in Nixon’s impeachment and removal.

This put the court in a strong position politically, and Nixon in a weak one. Forced into a corner, Nixon complied with the court’s ruling. He reluctantly handed over the tapes and resigned two weeks later.

Nixon’s story makes clear that, in a possible confrontation between a president and the Supreme Court, public approval and congressional support are enormously important. Nixon had neither: everyone knew that defying the court would likely have led to impeachment and removal. Trump, on the other hand, retains strong support from Republican voters, even as his overall favorability has declined since assuming office. While Nixon’s co-partisans on Capitol Hill hung him out to dry, Trump’s are standing behind him. Congressional Republicans have bent the knee time and time again, seemingly allowing his administration to exercise even those powers, such as the power to appropriate funds, that the Constitution grants to the legislature.

Unlike Nixon, Trump will not face the threat of congressional impeachment and removal if he defies the court. Barring an extraordinary political event — such as an unprecedented rout in the 2026 midterms — that will remain the case for the rest of his term. That reality could embolden him.

If public consensus remains firm, a blatant defiance of the Supreme Court could be politically perilous for Trump.

But there is a second important issue: people’s expectations. Not only did Nixon have abysmal public support, but roughly half of Americans wanted him to leave office entirely. Fast-forward to today, Trump himself is not unpopular, but many of his policies are not particularly well liked. Ending birthright citizenship, abolishing executive agencies and expansions of presidential power have proved unpopular. And large shares believe that Trump is overstepping his presidential authority. Would enough of the Supreme Court’s swing votes, such as Chief Justice John Roberts, stick their necks out to save policies that Americans dislike?

Most important is the fact that Americans firmly believe that presidents must obey Supreme Court rulings — for example, a recent poll showed that 83% of Americans(including 77% of Republicans) believe this. That is a striking level of bipartisan public consensus in a deeply polarized era. People want the president to comply with rulings, and they fully expect him to do so.

If public consensus remains firm, a blatant defiance of the Supreme Court could be politically perilous for Trump. This expectation may also influence the court itself, making it feel more emboldened to rule without fear of being ignored.

History doesn’t repeat itself, but it does offer guidance. Nixon was a politically weak president pushing unpopular views; he could not realistically survive a conflict with the court given the credible threat of impeachment from Congress. As for Trump, even though his policies are not popular, Congress is currently no check on his power. This all suggests that if Trump defied the court, he would probably survive in the sense that he would not be impeached. But it could be a pyrrhic victory: he could emerge severely politically damaged, perhaps cripplingly so.

The deeper worry is this: Trump has tested the boundaries of executive power like few presidents before him. Even if defying the Supreme Court carries significant political costs, those costs may be relatively meaningless — especially if the standoff involves elections or an expansion of his own authority. Political damage after the fact would mean little if defying the court works to secure more presidential power at the expense of democratic norms. And in the end, the most significant check would be a credible threat of congressional impeachment and removal — something that was historically present, but for now remains absent.

Maya you

Maya Sen is professor of public policy at Harvard University’s John F. Kennedy School of Government.

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The Dictatorship

Trump orders US military to ‘shoot and kill’ Iranian small boats choking Strait of Hormuz

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Trump orders US military to ‘shoot and kill’ Iranian small boats choking Strait of Hormuz

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — President Donald Trump has ordered the U.S. military to “shoot and kill” small Iranian boats that deploy mines in the Strait of Hormuzannouncing the move Thursday a day after Iran again displayed its ability to thwart traffic through the channel.

Trump also announced that a ceasefire in Lebanon would be extended by three weeks.

His post on social media about the small boats came shortly after the U.S. military seized another tanker associated with the smuggling of Iranian oil, ratcheting up a standoff with Tehran over the strait through which 20% of all crude oil and natural gas traded passed during peacetime.

“I have ordered the United States Navy to shoot and kill any boat, small boats though they may be … putting mines in the waters of the Strait of Hormuz,” Trump posted, adding that U.S. minesweepers “are clearing the Strait right now.”

“I am hereby ordering that activity to continue, but at a tripled up level!” he added.

The decision to extend a pause in fighting between Israel and the Hezbollah militant group in Lebanon came during a meeting at the White House between the Israeli and Lebanese ambassadors to the United States.

Meanwhile, it was still unclear when, or if, the U.S. and Iran would meet again in the Pakistani capital, Islamabad, where mediators are trying to bring the countries together to reach a diplomatic deal ending that conflict.

Negotiations initially planned this week have not happened. Iran insists it will not attend until the U.S. ends its blockade on Iranian ports and ships. The White House insists it will not take part until Tehran opens the strait to international traffic.

Pope Leo XIVreturning home from a trip to Africa, urged the U.S. and Iran to return to talks to end the war.

Footage shows US forces on deck of tanker

The Defense Department released video footage of U.S. forces on the deck of the oil tanker Majestic X, which was seized in the Indian Ocean. The ship had been flying a Guyanese flag, though the South American nation of Guyana said it was not registered there

The footage emerged a day after Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard attacked three cargo ships in the strait, capturing two of them, in an assault that raised new concerns about the safety of shipping through the waterway.

The powerful head of Iran’s judiciary, Gholam Hossein Mohseni Ejeisaid three “violating ships” in the strait were “subject to enforcement” Wednesday.

“The show of strength by the armed forces of Islamic Iran in the Strait of Hormuz is a source of pride,” he wrote Thursday on X, claiming the Americans “lack the courage” to approach the strait.

Ship-tracking data showed the Majestic X in the Indian Ocean between Sri Lanka and Indonesia, roughly the same location as the oil tanker Tifani, seized earlier by American forces. It had been bound for Zhoushan, China.

Majestic X previously was named Phonix and had been sanctioned by the U.S. Treasury Department in 2024 for smuggling Iranian crude oil in contravention of U.S. sanctions against the Islamic Republic.

Guyana said in a statement the Majestic X was not registered in the South American nation.

“While the name of the vessel has changed, the (International Maritime Organization) number remains recorded in the international database as PHONIX. There is no record of this vessel or name in Guyana’s registry. Therefore, the ship is FRAUDULENTLY flying the Guyana flag,” Guyana’s Maritime Administration Department said.

There was no immediate response from Iran about the seizure.

Trump claims leadership rift in Iran

Trump this week extended a ceasefire to give the Iranian leadership more time to come up with a “unified proposal” on ending the war, while maintaining an American blockade of Iranian ports.

In a post Thursday, Trump claimed a leadership rift between moderates and hard-liners was confounding Iran. “Iran is having a very hard time figuring out who their leader is! They just don’t know!” Trump said.

Trump has repeatedly said during the ceasefire that began April 8 that his team is dealing with Iranian officials who want to make a deal, while acknowledging that his decision to kill several top leaders has come with complications.

Iran’s president and its parliament speaker posted statements on social media declaring the country has no hard-liners or moderates.

“We are all Iranians and revolutionaries,” they said.

A spokesperson for the Iranian Foreign Ministry said Trump’s claim of a leadership rift was a “deflection.” Other Iranian officials said on social media that the country was united.

Trump, while speaking to reporters at the White House, pushed back against questions about the conflict exceeding the four-to-six-week timeline that he and aides previously set for the war.

“I don’t want to rush myself,” Trump said, adding that the U.S. “took the country out” militarily in the first four weeks.

“Now all we’re doing is sitting back and seeing what deal” can be made. “And if they don’t want to make a deal, then I’ll finish it up militarily,” Trump said.

He said he would not use a nuclear weapon against Iran.

Meanwhile, three aircraft carriers were in the region after the USS George H.W. Bush arrived in the Indian Ocean. One carrier was in the Arabian Sea and another was in the Red Sea, military officials said.

Talks between Lebanon and Israel lead to truce extension

Trump said a second round of talks between Israel and Lebanon in Washington “went very well” and resulted in a ceasefire extension for Israel and the Hezbollah militant group.

“The United States is going to work with Lebanon in order to help it protect itself from Hezbollah,” Trump said on his Truth Social platform.

The latest war between Israel and Hezbollah started after Israel and the U.S. launched attacks on Iran and the Tehran-backed militants fired rockets into northern Israel. The ceasefire first took effect for a 10-day period starting Friday.

Underscoring the truce’s fragility, Israel’s military said it struck missile launchers in Lebanon that had fired into its borders. Hezbollah said it fired at the Israeli town of Shtula in response to Israeli attacks on the Lebanese village of Yater.

Lebanon’s public health ministry said an Israeli airstrike killed three people further north, in the area of Nabatiya. The Israeli military said it killed three militants who launched a missile toward an Israeli warplane.

Each side has accused the other of breaching the truce.

Trump reiterated that the U.S. continues to demand that Iran stop it’s backing of Iranian-allied militias in the Mideast, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, as part of any deal between Washington and Tehran to end the U.S. war on Iran.

“Yeah, they’ll have to cut that,” Trump said to a reporter’s question about aiding Hezbollah. “That’s a must.”

Threats to shipping persist

Since the Feb. 28 start of the war between Iran, Israel and the United States, over 30 ships have come under attack in the waters of the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman.

The threat of attack, rising insurance premiums and other fears have stopped traffic from moving through the strait. Iran’s ability to restrict traffic through the strait, which leads from the Persian Gulf to the open ocean, has proved a major strategic advantage.

Jakob Larsen, the head of maritime security for BIMCO, the largest international association representing shipowners, said in a note Thursday that most shipping companies need a stable ceasefire and assurances from both sides of the conflict that the strait is safe for transit.

The threat of mines, he wrote, was a “particular concern” if traffic might return to normal levels one day.

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Madhani reported from Washington, and Keaten reported from Geneva.

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This story has corrected that the Majestic X oil tanker had been flying the Guyanese flag not the Guinea flag.

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The Dictatorship

What The Kennedy Center’s Chief Showed Journalists To Prove The Building Really Does Need Renovation

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What The Kennedy Center’s Chief Showed Journalists To Prove The Building Really Does Need Renovation

WASHINGTON (AP) — To President Donald Trumpthe Kennedy Center is a “tired, broken, and dilapidated” building in urgent need of repair. To artists like Jane Fonda and Billy Porterit’s a protest site symbolizing the administration’s effort to reshape the nation’s cultural institutions.

For the Kennedy Center’s new leadership, it’s a gargantuan structure corroded by water damage so severe that steel in some places is tissue-thin.

Matt Floca, the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts' new executive director and chief operating officer, shows an expansion joint during a media tour intended to show building damage, Wednesday, April 22, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson)

Matt Floca, the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts’ new executive director and chief operating officer, shows an expansion joint during a media tour intended to show building damage, Wednesday, April 22, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson)

Away from the political controversy that has consumed the iconic performing arts venue for the better part of Trump’s second term, Matt Floca, the Kennedy Center’s new executive director and chief operating officerguided a group of journalists through the building on Wednesday. They viewed the outdoor terrace overlooking the Potomac River, along with parking decks, loading docks, an electrical vault and the Opera House stage.

Matt Floca, the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts' new executive director and chief operating officer, shows aged equipment in the river pump room during a media tour intended to show building damage, Wednesday, April 22, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson)

Matt Floca, the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts’ new executive director and chief operating officer, shows aged equipment in the river pump room during a media tour intended to show building damage, Wednesday, April 22, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson)

A theme emerged at virtually every stop: The water damage was real, apparent in some places through discoloration and pooling. Some pieces of equipment, including several 800-ton chillers that help cool the building, are decades old and in need of replacement.

And the building is so massive — sprawling across more than 1.5 million square feet — that repairs will require time to finish.

Two years of timein fact.

Trump plans to shutter the building for a massive renovation slated to begin in July, supported by nearly $257 million provided by Congress to fund repairs. The institution is expected to turn to private donors to help support refurbishing some of the building’s more exclusive areas, such as lounges.

The Kennedy Center is hardly the first fixture of the Washington skyline to undergo lengthy renovations. The Smithsonian Castle, one of the most recognizable buildings along the National Mall, has been closed for renovations since 2023. The Washington Monument was shrouded in scaffolding from 1998 to 2001 and covered again at points in 2013 and 2014 to repair earthquake damage.

None of those changes, however, were guided so closely by a sitting president.

The president is hands-on with this renovation

Trump, who is also trying to build a ballroom on the grounds of the former East Wing of the White House and is pushing for the construction of a triumphal arch near Arlington Cemetery, is deeply involved in the Kennedy Center plans. That’s in line with the far more hands-on approach he’s taken to the institution during his second term, ousting its previous leadership and replacing it with a handpicked board that named him chairman.

His name is now bolted to the building’s facade along with that of John F. Kennedy, the slain president that the venue memorializes.

The John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts is seen following a media tour intended to show building damage, Wednesday, April 22, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson)

The John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts is seen following a media tour intended to show building damage, Wednesday, April 22, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson)

“It’s a public building, and I completely acknowledge that, but the president is really great at this, and I think his input is invaluable,” Floca said. “He’s in the details, and it’s amazing. I really respect the input he’s given.”

As Trump tightened his grip on the building, artists abandoned the institution in droves, prompting concern that the closure is more of an effort to cover for plunging sales. The Kennedy Center hasn’t released sales figures.

Floca considered doing the repairs individually but insisted it was his recommendation to Trump to close the building and move forward with the renovation all at once.

“When the President asked: ‘How do you make these projects the best? How do you make them really excellent and deliver them efficiently?’ my recommendation was you close the building and you do everything over a definite period of time, two years,” he said.

He acknowledged that once the building is closed, staffing will be “pretty bare bones.”

“We’re working on all of those plans now and exactly what those numbers will be after July,” he said. “And we will staff up before reopening.”

Still, the tour offered the institution something of a reset opportunity after more than a year of tumult, demonstrating the need for repairs while easing some fears. A bipartisan group of lawmakers and their staff, along with representatives for Washington Mayor Muriel Bowser and some corporate and individual donors, have received a similar walk-through.

There will be scaffolding around the building but the construction won’t be so dramatic that someone could see through the building. That’s notable considering Trump has suggested the steel supporting the structure could be “ fully exposed.”

It’s not entirely clear how much change will be apparent to the general public once the Kennedy Center reopens. Much of the structural repair, which will unfold during the renovation’s first year, will happen in the building’s private core.

The venue’s more public elements, including the red-on-red decor of the Opera House, are expected to be maintained, though with some updating. There aren’t plans at the moment to change the presidential boxes.

The Opera House seats are seen at the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts during a media tour intended to show building damage, Wednesday, April 22, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson)

The Opera House seats are seen at the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts during a media tour intended to show building damage, Wednesday, April 22, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson)

Quotes attributed to Kennedy will stay on the building’s walls and the famous bust of the former president that sits outside the Opera House will be there again when the building reopens.

“I can’t think of any JFK changes,” Floca said.

An eight foot tall bronze bust of President John F. Kennedy is seen in the Grand Foyer of the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts during a media tour to show building damage, Wednesday, April 22, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson)

An eight foot tall bronze bust of President John F. Kennedy is seen in the Grand Foyer of the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts during a media tour to show building damage, Wednesday, April 22, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson)

It’s unclear, however, whether there will be additional tributes to Trump, who will be in the final months of his presidency when the public can return to the building.

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The Dictatorship

Trump threats against Iran are a boon for prediction markets, including some backed by his son

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Trump threats against Iran are a boon for prediction markets, including some backed by his son

NEW YORK (AP) — Will President Donald Trump send troops into Iran? Will he rename the Strait of Hormuz after himself? Will he post again praising Allah?

No one knows the answers, but online betting companies that allow people to wager on Trump policies and statements are profiting — including some backed by his oldest son.

Prediction markets love the president’s unpredictability, his need to keep people guessing about his next move or social media post, leading to more wagers in these betting venues and more fees for them. That includes Polymarket, a company Donald Trump Jr. has a stake in, and Kalshi, a company he advises.

These sites have to come up with new betting lines on current events everyday, and Trump Jr.’s famously fickle father has proven to be a rich source of will-he-or-won’t-he questions.

When a wagering event on Polymarket asked whether Trump was likely to send troops into Iran, nearly 100,000 bets were placed on April 8, leading to the biggest trading day of the year up to then.

And Trump’s policies and social media comments generate bets beyond the war-related ones: Who will Trump back to run Venezuela? Will his insults of Pope Leo XIV continue? Will he seize Greenland?

“Trump is the guy. He makes the market possible,” said Kwok Ping Tsang, a Virginia Tech economist who has studied Polymarket. “He’s so unpredictable.”

Sports wagers make up the largest portion of the volume on prediction markets, but politics runs a close second, according to crypto analysis firm Dune.

People are also betting “Yes” or “No” on all kinds of other things — the price of gold, the winner of “Survivor,” even the weather. The cost of the wager, in cents per dollar, reflects the number of people making the same bet, with a price of 49 cents for “Yes,” for instance, reflecting 49% odds.

The betting has drawn bipartisan criticism for inviting insider trading but the president seems to be a big fan, applying a light regulatory touch and helping the industry expand. His family company, the Trump Organization, is even working on opening its own prediction market, called Truth Predict.

One of the biggest fee generators lately has been Trump’s approach to the Iran war, notably his Truth Social post on April 5 demanding the country “Open the F—- Strait.”

Trading on Polymarket soared with “Yes” or “No” wagers on whether an invasion was imminent, according to Dune, only to be surpassed on April 7 by betting on another question — Will there be a ceasefire? — when Trump posted ominously that a “whole civilization will die tonight.”

In total, 413 million bets on the Iran war were made risking more than $100 million from Sunday, April 5, through Wednesday, April 8, the day after Trump announced a ceasefire, according to Dune.

In a report after the surge, Dune called Trump an “unpredictability machine” and marveled at how his “governing-by-tweet” style sends trading volumes soaring.

Asked whether the president’s son should be profiting from a business benefitting from his father’s actions, a Trump Jr. spokesman called the question “fact-free Democratic propaganda.”

“Don does not interface with the federal government as part of his role with any company that he invests in or advises and has no influence or involvement with administration policies relating to prediction markets,” said the spokesman, Andrew Surabian.

Polymarket didn’t respond to a request for comment.

The betting venues have jumped in popularity since Trump was reelected in November 2024 in part because they correctly predicted, unlike many pundits, that he would win decisively.

Since then the Trump administration has sued states trying to ban prediction markets under no-gambling laws. The head of the industry’s chief regulator, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, has even promoted the business publicly, calling the online bets in a Wall Street Journal op-ed “exciting products.”

Benefiting particularly has been Polymarket, which was banned from operating anywhere in the U.S. in 2022 after the Biden administration fined it for running an unregistered exchange. It recently got permission to return, and its value has soared.

The company is now worth $9.6 billion, according to research firm PitchBook, a nearly tenfold increase in eight months since a venture capital fund in which Trump Jr. is a partner last invested.

Just how much Trump Jr. is benefiting from the increase in value is unclear because Polymarket is private and doesn’t release ownership stakes. Kalshi, which took on Trump Jr. as an adviser last year, is also private.

As for profiting off turmoil and war, Trump Jr. has other possible ways besides the prediction markets.

Through his venture capital fund he also owns pieces of aerospace, defense and technology companies seeking Pentagon contracts and other federal agency dollars. Separately, he and his brother, Eric, just struck a deal giving them stakes in a military drone maker not just selling to the U.S. forces but also pitching to Gulf countries under Iranian attack and beholden to their father for U.S. military protection in a war he started.

Asked last month about the drone company potentially profiting off his father’s position as president, Eric Trump sent The Associated Press a statement saying, “I am incredibly proud to invest in companies I believe in.”

Critics in Congress, virtually all Democrats, have decried what they believe is blatant profiting off the presidency, and are waiting for the midterms to do something about it, possibly voting for impeachment.

But whether that happens is anyone’s guess — or to be more specific, tens of thousands of guesses.

In Polymarket trading, those betting that Trump would get impeached by the end of his term were putting the chances at 13% at the start of the year. But that has changed dramatically after his “civilization wipe out” threat and calls from Democrats to oust him from office.

By Tuesday, the odds had jumped to 66%.

——

AP reporters Ken Sweet in New York and Christopher Keller in Albuquerque, N.M., contributed to this story.

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