Congress
How the megabill could fall apart
Republican leaders are expecting to finish up their domestic-policy megabill the same way they’ve advanced it this far: by tweaking their plans for President Donald Trump’s legislative agenda and daring holdouts to vote against it.
It might work, and GOP leaders are projecting confidence that the bill will land on Trump’s desk in time to meet their arbitrary July 4 target. Senate Majority Leader John Thune said Friday he expects his chamber to start voting as soon as Saturday.
But there are reasons the deadline could slip, and several of them were on display this week as Republicans dug in for the final scramble of negotiations.
For one, members continue to fight jealously to keep personal priorities in the bill — including parts of a $4 trillion package of tax cuts set to affect virtually the entire U.S. economy. Meanwhile, other lawmakers who have made the megabill into an ideological litmus test on federal spending and budget deficits are facing a put-up-or-shut-up moment after repeatedly drawing red lines and then moving forward with the legislation anyway.
Finally, a handful of key lawmakers are facing what could be existential political stakes as they brace for tough re-election contests in next year’s midterms. Many are balking at having to vote on cutbacks to safety-net programs, clean-energy projects and other federal assistance their states and constituents rely on.
Together, it’s turned the megabill’s endgame into a high-wire act — and Thune is keeping the pressure on, expecting his members will want to stay on the rope.
“We’ve cussed it. We’ve discussed it,” Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) said Friday. “But we’re gradually going from thoughtful, rational deliberation into the foothills of jackassery. I mean, we’re talking about the same thing over and over and over.”
Thune, along with Trump and Speaker Mike Johnson, have all calculated that allowing more debate will only work against them. They’ve already used the threat of a federal default later this summer to move the process along — the bill includes a debt-ceiling increase — but the Independence Day deadline has emerged as a tantalizing symbolic target.
Problem is, with groups of members digging in, the state of the negotiations isn’t necessarily jibing with that timeline. Thune wouldn’t say Friday whether he had the votes to even start debate: “We’ll find out.”
Among the biggest problems for Thune going into Saturday are four GOP fiscal hawks: Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky is an all-but-guaranteed “no” vote, while Sens. Mike Lee of Utah, Ron Johnson of Wisconsin and Rick Scott of Florida are each in close touch with Trump and pledging to act in unison.
All of them have made dire warnings about the state of the nation’s finances, and they have pushed for much deeper spending cuts than what has been on offer. They have also been coordinating with members of the House Freedom Caucus, the hard-right group that has made similar fiscal demands.
Every Freedom Caucus member save for Rep. Andy Harris (R-Md.), its chair, has voted to advance the megabill. But they’ve been strategizing about how to bend the legislation in their direction and trying to warn they will vote against the Senate bill if it moves too far in the other direction.
Rep. Eric Burlison of Missouri, one of 30 House Republicans who warned senators to abide by the House bill’s fiscal framework, said Friday he remained in a dug-in “no” vote on the Senate bill. He said he was even more adamant about his position given the Senate parliamentarian had effectively vetoed a provision he secured that would make it easier to obtain rifles and silencers.
“They just need to understand that if they don’t meet that and they send us back something that blows up the deficit, it’s not going to pass — period,” Burlison said. “And we mean it.”
Texas Rep. Chip Roy, a ringleader of the fiscal conservatives, told reporters Friday there’s a “good number” of ”no” votes among Republicans in the House, “and I think the Senate knows that.”
“I can’t go back to my people and say we increased the deficit a trillion dollars,” he said.
White House officials have ratcheted up their efforts to win over the holdouts. Deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller has been calling Freedom Caucus members this week to hear out their concerns. So far, he’s largely been in “listening mode,” according to two Republicans granted anonymity to discuss the private conversations.
Trump himself is “more fielding calls than making them” at this point, according to a senior White House official granted anonymity to describe the president’s lobbying. He met Thursday with Johnson and Thune, and the official said the individual whipping of members would begin soon enough.
The message will be simple, the person said: “You can vote to end your career or not.”
That’s exactly what’s on the minds of several in-cycle senators, except they fear it’s a yes vote that could cost them re-election next year.
Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina openly warned his colleagues this week he will lose his reelection bid if they move forward with Medicaid provisions as currently drafted — in particular a curtailing of medical provider taxes, the mechanism the vast majority of states use to finance their Medicaid programs.
“Trust me when I tell you, my Republican colleagues and leadership of the legislature are not going to raise taxes to fill the gap, and even if they could, the number is too high,” Tillis said Friday, emphasizing he would not vote to start debate on the bill until the matter is addressed.
Sens. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana and Susan Collins of Maine, who are up for re-election next year, and Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, who is up in 2028, are also closely following the Medicaid language. Leaders have so far offered a $15 billion fund to offset the provider tax changes and protect vulnerable hospitals, but Collins is pushing for $100 billion.
They have taken heart from reports that Trump is sympathetic to their position and would prefer the Senate retreat to the less drastic House provider tax proposal. But GOP leaders are intent on preserving the hundreds of billions of dollars in savings attached to the provision — in part to preserve a trio of permanent business tax breaks backed by key members of the Senate Finance Committee.
They’re also facing a crunch from the small but vocal group of blue-state House Republicans pushing for a larger state-and-local-tax deduction. Their demands could add another $350 billion in cost to the Senate bill, though there is a tentative deal to cut that figure in half.
After meeting with Trump Thursday, Thune said he believes the president has no strong attachment to the Medicaid provision and just wants whatever bill can get to his desk. He’s privately told Senate Republicans that he believes the House will take up and pass whatever the Senate sends over.
In other words, even if Thune’s gamble succeeds on his side of the Capitol, Johnson might soon be throwing the dice himself.
“Mike is nervous as a pregnant nun right now — he doesn’t know if he can get what we’re doing past his House,” Kennedy said. “He wanted us understandably not to touch a thing in the House bill — that wasn’t going to happen in this lifetime.”
Dasha Burns, Cassandra Dumay and David Lim contributed to this report.
Sen. Raphael Warnock is hitting the road for the last month before Election Day.
The Georgia Democrat’s final midterm campaign surrogate sprint will only increase chatter around the possibility that he might run for president in 2028, according to a nine-stop itinerary shared first with Blue Light News.
First, he’ll touch down in New Hampshire on Tuesday before hitting Nevada on Wednesday. Next, he’ll travel to South Carolina (Oct. 13), Mississippi (Oct. 14), North Carolina (Oct. 15), South Carolina (Oct. 16-17), Michigan (Oct. 20-21), Wisconsin (Oct. 23) and Ohio (Oct. 24-26).
“Senator Reverend Warnock will be hitting the trail to energize voters who are sick of the President enriching himself while ordinary people continue to pay more for everything,” a spokesperson told Playbook. “Tapping into the righteous anger that voters are feeling across the country, the pastor in the Senate will again make the campaign trail his pulpit: calling out Trump’s corruption, while leaving voters hopeful for the next generation of Democratic leadership.”
Asked recently at the Texas Tribune Festival about whether he would run for president, Warnock said: “We’ll see what happens.”
Democrats are eager to win back subpoena power if they retake Congress, but they’re split on how hard they’ll go after corporate America.
The party is united by the idea of aggressive oversight of President Donald Trump’s administration, which will help shape their messaging in the run-up to the 2028 election. But Democrats are at odds over how fiercely to use their probing power to go after the corporations, law firms and universities that courted the White House over the past two years.
“We don’t want to turn into a banana republic where you lose an election and it’s all about retribution,” Rep. Bill Foster, a senior member of the Financial Services Committee, said.
“We’re going to have to be a little bit wise about when companies simply did something they had to do to survive this unprecedented level of corruption, compared to companies that actually got on board and profited more by being a partner in his corruption,” he added.
Some progressives counter that a restrained approach would sit uneasily with the party’s base.
“It would be political suicide for Democrats to campaign on fighting corruption and then turn around and go easy on the very companies that are facilitating it,” said Ella Fanger, corporate power policy adviser at the liberal nonprofit group Demand Progress.
Prime targets for some Democrats are the tech companies that have taken steps to be on the president’s good side, like Apple, Amazon and Meta, which have all donated to Trump’s ballroom effort. Major cryptocurrency players, including Coinbase, Ripple and Tether also chipped in for the ballroom, and will be subject to questioning from Democrats.
The late convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein’s networks and associates are also poised for probes — a push that has ensnared big banks like JPMorgan Chase, Deutsche Bank and Bank of America in the past.
Sen. Chris Murphy said the party should focus on the nexus between Trump and corporate corruption.
“We should get to the bottom of the corrupt relationship that exists between corporations in this country and the Trump administration,” Murphy said, pointing to questions he’s posed about a tobacco company’s donation to Trump’s super PAC before new e-cigarette rules were unveiled.
Still, Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, who serves on Senate Banking, warned against the weaponization of power.
“Our focus should be solving problems that we’re seeing happening,” she said, pointing to cost-of-living issues around health care, housing and energy.
What else we’re watching:
— FIRST IN IC: BUILD AMERICA CAUCUS AGENDA — Energized by progress on permitting and housing legislation this term, a bipartisan development-focused caucus is rolling out a detailed agenda for next term. The 40-member Build America Caucus is releasing a 95-page package of proposals, first shared with Blue Light News, that outlines plans touching on health care, transportation, child care and research. The group launched last year with the goal of cutting red tape and regulatory bottlenecks to spur development.
— AI COLLAB STILL ILLUSIVE FOR CRUZ, CANTWELL — Commerce Chair Ted Cruz and ranking member Maria Cantwell might still be celebrating Senate passage of their landmark college sports bill last week, but it’s unclear the momentum will carry forward to agreement on another committee priority: artificial intelligence. Among the dozen lawmakers, aides and industry experts who spoke to Blue Light News, few expect the two senators to shed their well-established ideologies and styles after the mutual win. That could doom their ability to replicate their latest achievement in something as complex and divisive as an AI regulatory framework.
Jasper Goodman, Katherine Hapgood, Riley Rogerson and Kelsey Brugger contributed to this report.
Four years ago, California Rep. Ro Khanna’s staff voted to unionize — one of a handful of Democratic offices that sought to ride a wave of organizing momentum during then-President Joe Biden’s administration.
Much has changed since, to put it mildly, but Khanna aides persevered and recently won approval of their first collectively bargained contract — the first labor agreement of its kind inside Congress.
“This was four years in the making,” Nicole Waring, a deputy director of constituent services for Khanna and the union steward, said in an interview. “We finally, finally reached the point where we were able to finalize our contract and ratify it.”
The agonizing process of turning pro-union enthusiasm into an actual binding agreement is both a breakthrough for the fitful labor movement on Capitol Hill while also underscoring how that movement has sputtered in the years since Biden left office, Donald Trump took back the White House and unionization moved off the front burner for Democratic staffers.
Since an initial wave of offices voted to unionize in 2022, that momentum has largely petered out. Less than a dozen offices are now unionized as staffers’ efforts are complicated by heavy workloads, adversarial bosses and Congress’ recent record high turnover rates that have led some aides to the conclusion that unionizing is more trouble than it’s worth.
Against that backdrop, that the eight-person union in Khanna’s office was able to win a contract constitutes a bright spot for organizers.
The agreement establishes a higher salary floor and a mechanism to renegotiate salaries if the office’s budget allowance increases, according to Waring and portions of the text reviewed by Blue Light News.
The document also codifies a procedure to resolve internal grievances. When Khanna almost certainly wins reelection, the agreement — which was officially ratified in August — will continue through next term.
“I’m proud of our office for signing the first long-term contract in the history of the U.S. Congress. I hope this can serve as a model for other offices in Congress,” Khanna said in a statement thanking his staff. “We need to be a model for the collective bargaining in our offices that we want to see across our nation.”
Waring said Khanna and his senior aides were supportive and trusting during contract negotiation but noted that, even under those positive circumstances, the effort was time- and labor-intensive.
“There’s a lot of back and forth. It takes time to review each passback of the contract, redline everything,” Waring said. “The biggest thing was we wanted to make sure that this contract would be governable, and rather than just make things convenient and take shortcuts, make sure that it was going to be something that we knew would stand the test of time.”
Khanna’s chief of staff, Marie Baldassarre, said in an interview the process for her office took years because “we realized like this is going to actually impact people’s lives, and it’s a binding contract, and so we have to get it right.”
“It’s just never been done before, and none of us were experts,” she added.
Staffers on Capitol Hill often face a grueling office cultures that can hamstring efforts to advance worker protections. Staffers for pro-labor Rep. Dina Titus (D-Nev.), for example, voted to unionize in 2023 but then faced internal retaliation, according to the Nevada Independent.
Staffers for lawmakers across the ideological spectrum can be subjected to long hours, eyebrow-raising member requests and unrelenting demands that can spur staffer interest in pursuing labor protections — but also fears about potentially hindering their careers.
A person involved in the Congressional Workers Union — an umbrella group that provides support to individual office bargaining units — called the Khanna office contract “historic” and acknowledged it was “probably the biggest win recently” for the broader organizing effort.
“There’s small wins all the time,” added the person, who was not authorized to speak publicly on behalf of the group.
Staffers for former Rep. Andy Levin (D-Mich.) ratified a contract in the final days of his term in December 2022. While that contract was technically the first for a member office, it was largely symbolic given Levin’s imminent departure. Staff for Reps. Mark Pocan (D-Wis.) and Val Hoyle (D-Ore.) secured “memorandums of understanding” with their members in 2024, but not formal contracts.
“Hats off to them for getting it done,” Levin said in an interview. “In terms of what comes next, much will depend on the outcome of the midterms.”
Levin, a labor attorney, said that Republican majorities and White House have had a chilling effect on Capitol Hill unions and predicted that if Democrats take back the House majority next year, a flurry of labor activity will ensue. He added that several Democrats with close ties to organized labor are poised to enter the House, naming fellow Michigan Democrat and former SEIU organizer Donavan McKinney.
“In this political climate, the idea of getting contracts negotiated on Blue Light News, where it’s hardly ever been done, I think that seems very challenging to me,” Levin said. “I do think it’s great that another office has gotten the first contract, and I think the momentum will continue to grow from here.”
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