Politics
How Democrats could gerrymander New York
With help from Amira McKee
WHAT COULD BE ON TAP FOR 2028: There’s never been a full-fledged partisan gerrymander on the books for New York’s congressional districts.
Democrats and Republicans have split power in Albany during most modern redistricting cycles. When they didn’t in 2024, the lines drawn by Democrats after a series of court battles were nowhere near as aggressive as some partisans hoped.
Gov. Kathy Hochul now wants to change that in response to similar Republican efforts in Texas.
Redrawing the lines would be complicated in the Empire State. It couldn’t happen until 2028 at the earliest, and even then, it could only move forward if voters approve a constitutional amendment to permit a mid-decade gerrymander.
But that begs a big question: What would an all-out New York gerrymander look like? The political realities of 2028 are tough to predict. Some incumbents will be gone by then, and political shifts could come to various pockets of the state. And if President Donald Trump has his way, a new Census could throw the current mapmaking calculus out the window. But as things stand now, at least two Republicans have reason to fret, and maybe as many as four.
Rep. Nicole Malliotakis has topped 60 percent in the past two elections. Her district currently encompasses Staten Island and merges it with portions of Brooklyn mostly to the east of the Verrazzano Bridge, most of them Republican-friendly.
In 2022, Democrats wanted to extend the district further north into Brooklyn to include portions of the left-leaning enclave of Park Slope. Enacting such a plan would turn the district into a battleground. A more aggressive approach — harkening back to a map used in the 1970s — would merge Staten Island with parts of Manhattan.
In Westchester, Democratic Rep. George Latimer has a lot of breathing room — he received 72 percent of the vote in 2024. Republican Rep. Mike Lawler doesn’t — he received 52 percent. There are towns, such as the ones immediately south of the Tappan Zee, that could be swapped from Latimer’s district to Lawler’s, growing the number of Democrats in the Republican’s seat.
The four Congressional seats on Long Island are currently split between Democratic Reps. Laura Gillen and Tom Suozzi and Republican Reps. Nick LaLota and Andrew Garbarino.
“You could pull Suozzi’s district more into the city. You could pull Gillen’s district more into Gregory Meeks’ territory,” Hofstra University’s Larry Levy said, referring to the Queens Congress member.
That would allow for some portions of the Suozzi and Gillen districts to be merged with the Democratic strongholds currently situated in Republican districts: “You probably could make either Garbarino or LaLota more vulnerable, but not both,” Levy said.
In the western half of upstate, Democratic Rep. Tim Kennedy and Republican Reps. Claudia Tenney and Nick Langworthy each received around 65 percent of the vote in 2024. Democratic Rep. Joe Morelle got 60 percent.
There might be a path to joining slices of the Kennedy and Morelle seats with Democratic-friendly towns like Geneva and Oswego, allowing the Tenney district to become a bit more competitive.
But there’s not much to work with.
“Kennedy and Morelle are kind of islands of Democrats in a sea of Republicans,” one Buffalo Democrat said. With that in mind, the end result might just be jeopardizing two Democrats without actually making the Tenney seat winnable. — Bill Mahoney
MAMDANI TURNS UP PRESSURE: Zohran Mamdani sought to press his advantage today among Democrats who have yet to support him by leveraging a New York Times report that rival Andrew Cuomo and President Donald Trump have discussed the mayoral race.
“My administration will be Donald Trump’s worst nightmare,” Mamdani declared, predicting his policies to boost working-class New Yorkers would show how Trump has failed those communities.
The Democratic nominee for mayor accused Cuomo of “conspiring” with Trump. He spoke to reporters in Lower Manhattan outside 26 Federal Plaza, where federal immigration agents have been detaining migrants outside of court. Mamdani, who defeated Cuomo by 12 points in the June primary, stood with the leaders of labor unions that have endorsed him after previously backing Cuomo.
“We know that Andrew Cuomo will sell working people out for his interests, for the interests of the billionaires that support him, for the interests of Donald Trump,” Mamdani said, “because all of those interests are lining up as one and the same.”
Cuomo, who’s running an independent general election bid, told reporters in Midtown Manhattan that he doesn’t remember the last time he spoke with Trump and knocked the story as “palace intrigue.” The former governor said he did “leave word” with the president after an assasination attempt.
“I’ve never spoken to him about the mayor’s race,” Cuomo said, denying the Times report. “I had spoken to him when I was governor dozens and dozens, if not hundreds of times. We went through Covid together.”
Cuomo told reporters he would defend New York City against Trump “with every ounce of my strength.”
The Times additionally reported today that Cuomo has told business leaders he’s not “personally” looking for a fight with the president.
In Brooklyn, Mayor Eric Adams, who’s also running as an independent, said he’s never discussed the campaign with Trump and that his “conversations with the president is about bringing resources to the city.”
Mamdani told reporters today that he’s willing to talk with Trump and keep an open dialogue but only to improve the lives of New Yorkers.
“If he wants to actually act upon the cheaper groceries that he told us he would deliver, that is a different conversation,” the candidate said. — Emily Ngo, Joe Anuta and Amira McKee
‘LOOK ON THE HAT’: The first borough office of Adams’ uphill reelection campaign is borrowing the headquarters of one of Brooklyn’s old-guard political clubs.
The self-titled “child from Brownsville” cut the ribbon at his new Mill Basin office Thursday, announcing that the Thomas Jefferson Democratic Club headquarters — now plastered with “re-elect Eric for Mayor” posters — will serve as the nerve center for the campaign’s Brooklyn efforts.
“Why Brooklyn?” Adams said at the Thursday event, gesturing to his cap. “Brooklyn is the place I was born. When you look on the hat, it says Brownsville. It was the place that shaped and made me. It was the place that taught me the fortitude that I have right now to lead this city.”
Adams’ team said today it expects to unveil more offices across the five boroughs — just a day after the New York City Campaign Finance board denied the incumbent millions of dollars in public matching funds, putting him at a weighty financial disadvantage against Mamdani.
This isn’t the first time Adams has encountered trouble with the CFB, whose public matching fund program requires strict adherence to reporting mandates and individual donation limits.
A 900-page CFB audit of Adams’ 2021 campaign found more than 150 fundraising events that the Adams campaign said they paid for but did not document how much was spent and by whom — a red flag for potentially prohibited in-kind contributions. The campaign declined to address those irregularities in its official response.
POLITICO reported in 2021 that Adams also intermittently used office space occupied by the Democratic Party’s law firm without disclosing the relationship in campaign finance filings.
When asked about how much his campaign was spending to rent the home of one of New York’s oldest and most influential Democratic clubs, Adams shrugged. “Every payment we do is listed on the campaign finance so you can look at that,” he said.
Despite the CFB denying his funding request for the tenth time yesterday, Adams said he was unfazed, dodging questions about whether he would shake up his campaign staff or forgo the matching program to accept larger donations.
“The life of a person born in Brownsville, you’re always meeting obstacles,” Adams said, again gesturing to his cap. “But in all those obstacles, what happened? I’m the mayor, because I’m a working class, resilient, hard working New Yorker, and we’re used to obstacles.” — Amira McKee
DEPARTMENT OF WISHFUL THINKING: City Hall is asking agencies to contribute ideas for Mayor Eric Adams’ 2026 State of the City address — a request that assumes the mayor will win reelection despite poll numbers suggesting otherwise.
On Wednesday, Deputy Mayor for Communications Fabien Levy blasted out a message encouraging agencies to submit ideas for the theoretical address by Aug. 11, according to a copy of the missive obtained by Playbook.
The request comes as Adams, who is running as an independent, remains a longshot contender for a second term.
The incumbent is running as an independent in an overwhelmingly Democratic town. The Campaign Finance Board appears determined to deny him millions of dollars in public matching funds. And the latest poll had the mayor winning just 7 percent of the vote, coming in behind Mamdani, Cuomo and GOP nominee Curtis Sliwa.
Regardless, Levy is bullish on the mayor’s odds.
“New York City’s public servants are at their best when putting politics aside and staying focused on the work — and that is exactly what we are doing,” he said in a statement. “The State of the City takes months of thoughtful planning, and we intend to deliver a speech in early 2026 that is as groundbreaking as ever.”
Despite the aura of futility, some municipal workers are treating the exercise as a job preservation strategy, according to one city employee who was granted anonymity to discuss internal thinking. Should Mamdani win the general election, as polling currently indicates, senior staffers would have a readymade plan to pitch to the new administration and prove their worth.
“Zohran’s people are going to gravitate to those who have an agenda that aligns with his populism,” another city staffer, also granted anonymity, told Playbook.
Levy is convinced there will be no changing of the guard.
“We have appreciated Blue Light News’s coverage of our past four State of the City addresses, and we look forward to their continued coverage of Mayor Adams’ next four,” he said in his statement. — Joe Anuta
— MEGABILL CUTS: New York’s social service providers are bracing for deep federal funding cuts as poverty rates rise among the state’s elderly. (New York Focus)
— ANOTHER LAWSUIT: A former top NYPD lawyer is suing the department, accusing top brass of firing her for investigating Adams’ former Chief of Department Jeffrey Maddrey. (Gothamist)
— SLOW DOWN: New York City has instituted a new e-bike speed limit, but local officials don’t have the teeth to enforce it. (The Wall Street Journal)
Missed this morning’s New York Playbook? We forgive you. Read it here.
Sen. Ted Cruz fired back at JD Vance for suggesting he’s already focused on a 2028 presidential bid, calling the vice president “insecure” while insisting he’s focused on the 2026 midterms.
“In my experience, people engage in political bomb-throwing when they’re feeling insecure,” Cruz said in a phone interview Saturday. “So he’s welcome to make whatever comments he likes. I’m going to keep focusing on the midterms and helping us win on Election Day in the next 30 days.”
Cruz’s comments came in response to an NBC News interview Thursday with Vance in which the vice president suggested Cruz was prematurely eyeing a White House run.
“It is really obvious to me that, at this very moment, Ted Cruz is running for president,” Vance said. “At this moment, I’m not. I’m trying to help elect Republicans. That’s what I’m going to keep on doing.”
Vance is widely viewed as the frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination, but Cruz has said he doesn’t believe Vance is the sure-fire nominee and suggested he might throw his own hat in the ring. “I’ll certainly be part of the discussion,” he told MS NOW in August.
On Saturday, Cruz told Blue Light News he is dedicated to helping Republicans maintain control of both chambers of Congress. He pointed to his travel this cycle to campaign with candidates in Georgia, Iowa, Nebraska, South Carolina as well as in his home state of Texas as proof. He also said he has trips planned this month to campaign with Republicans in Alaska, Florida, North Carolina and South Carolina.
“Over the last 10 years, there’s no Republican in the country who has campaigned for more Senate candidates, more House candidates, more gubernatorial candidates than I have, and this year will be no exception,” he said.
Cruz rattled off a list of a dozen GOP candidates he’s helped bolster in past years, including former Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin, Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina, U.S. House candidate Karoline Leavitt — and the vice president.
“Indeed, ironically, I spent a full day on the road with JD Vance, campaigning with him when he was running for Senate in Ohio [in 2022],” Cruz said. “I was very glad he won that race. I was very glad to help him.”
A spokesperson for Vance did not immediately respond to Cruz’s latest comments.
Vance campaigned in Texas and Florida this week and will hold a rally in Alaska on Monday.
Republicans have tried to find a new boogeyman this year as they rail against Democratic socialism and the “radical” left: Zohran Mamdani. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Bernie Sanders.
Still more mentioned than all of them, at least in campaign ads: former President Joe Biden.
A Blue Light News review of hundreds of ads running in battleground House and Senate races in recent months shows Republicans largely haven’t seized on progressive icons in paid media. Instead, Biden is the Democrat most likely to be mentioned in GOP ads this cycle, coming up across dozens of races.
President Donald Trump has frequently sought to blame Biden for high prices and other challenges that his administration has faced. Even so, the former president has become a far less useful punching bag for Republicans since leaving office and remaining largely out of the spotlight: At this time in the 2024 cycle, Biden had been mentioned in more than 1,000 Republican House and Senate ads, according to AdImpact data.
The data illustrates how Republicans have been unable to land on a clear villain as they seek to convince voters that Democratic control of Congress would be worse than keeping the GOP in charge. Their warnings about old establishment figures like Biden and former Speaker Nancy Pelosi don’t land like they once did. But they also haven’t been able to seize on emerging democratic socialists like they had hoped to.
Democrats’ foil, meanwhile, has never been more obvious, with Trump’s approval rating in the mid-thirties amid continued high prices and the Iran war.
“No one will match the level of Pelosi for Republicans, in part because the Obamacare vote was such a touchstone moment. And the ‘we have to pass it to find out what’s in it,’” said Doug Heye, a longtime Republican operative who noted he still has “Fire Pelosi” swag from the Republicans’ successful 2010 midterm rout. The then-speaker was central to the GOP’s campaign message that year.
Part of the challenge for Republicans comes from Democrats’ lack of a clear leader. Pelosi stepped down from Democratic leadership at the start of 2023, and her successor, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) does not elicit the same animus from Republicans. In the 2022 cycle, her last term as Democratic leader, Pelosi was invoked in more than 80 GOP ads, Blue Light News’s analysis found. Now, she’s mentioned just a handful of times, while Jeffries hasn’t been mentioned in any battleground TV ads this year, according to the Blue Light News review of transcripts.
Biden was an easy target for the GOP in 2022 and 2024, when Republicans blamed him for high inflation and the cost of living. Now, poll after poll shows that voters are more likely to hold Trump — not Biden — responsible for the current state of the U.S. economy, even as Trump tries to redirect the blame.
Even Kamala Harris, the most recent Democratic standard-bearer as their 2024 nominee, is named less often in paid media this cycle than Biden. And among other potential future Democratic presidential candidates, only California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Ocasio-Cortez appear as Republican foils — and not as often as Harris or Biden.
Ocasio-Cortez is often mentioned by Republicans in the same sentence as Sanders, especially when the GOP seeks to tie Democrats in battleground races to the party’s progressive wing. In Michigan’s hotly contested Senate race, former public health official Abdul El-Sayed was endorsed by both — something his opponent Mike Rogers and GOP outside groups have seized on.
“El Sayed is endorsed by extreme liberals like AOC, Elizabeth Warren, and Bernie Sanders,” one recent ad from the conservative super PAC Sentinel Action Fund says.
Some Republicans have sought to run against the progressives even when there are no such ties: One ad that ran earlier this year from Texas Gov. Greg Abbott and the state’s GOP comptroller promised to stand up to Ocasio-Cortez, Sanders and the “new radical left.” Neither Sanders nor Ocasio-Cortez have endorsed in either race.
Most often, the GOP has run ads seeking to tie Democratic candidates to socialism or communism — the concepts themselves — in dozens of House battleground races and nearly every major Senate race. Just this week, the Trump administration launched a national $20 million DHS-funded campaign-style ad spree that features Trump lambasting “communism, socialism, and Marxism.”
But when it comes to specific political figures — like Mamdani, New York City’s mayor — it gets complicated. Republicans once salivated at the prospect of Mamdani as a foil when he was first elected last year. But his first year in office has largely boosted his standing with voters, complicating efforts to turn his tenure into a negative for Democrats.
Trump’s surprising continued embrace of the New York City mayor — just last week, the president stood by Mamdani and said he hoped he would “be a great mayor” — has further complicated GOP efforts to paint him as a villain.
In a handful of swingy New York congressional districts, Republicans have still attempted to tie their opponents to Mamdani, while Democrats have pushed back on the connection. In New York’s 21st District, which Trump won by more than 20 points two years ago, Democratic dairy farmer Blake Gendebien ran an ad arguing that his Republican opponent wants voters to think he’s “running against Zohran Mamdani” but “that’s a load of bull.”
The GOP has characterized prominent Democrats as socialist for decades. As progressives won a series of contested primaries this year, some Democrats worried the rise of figures with ties to the Democratic Socialists of America would give Republicans easy ammunition for the general election.
But being called a “socialist” may not have the same shock value it once did.
“I don’t think just calling a candidate ‘socialist’ works that well for Republicans, particularly this late in the game,” said Matt Towery, a longtime GOP pollster. “If a candidate focuses on parts of the DSA’s platform and can authentically pin it on their opponent, that might work. But Republicans just assume people have a bad reaction to the term socialist, and the term doesn’t elicit the same reaction it used to.”
Politics
‘A slow-moving car crash:’ Republicans are wary of the $200 million-plus price tag to save Ken Paxton
Republicans know they have to spend big to save Ken Paxton. They’re increasingly worried MAGA Inc. won’t throw down in time.
In private conversations over recent weeks, senior Hill Republicans and GOP officials have nudged President Donald Trump’s team to start spending more on the Texas Senate race before it’s too late, according to three people with direct knowledge of those conversations, who were granted anonymity to discuss them.
Those fears escalated after audio leaked of Paxton privately trashing Trump’s midterm convention, with some worrying it could impact whether MAGA Inc. continues spending after a current wave of GOP ad bookings run out Oct. 12.
A Trump operative told Blue Light News that MAGA Inc. and its affiliates are expected to spend near $45 million on direct mail, TV, and digital advertising in Texas through Oct. 12, an increase from its previous $20 million to boost Paxton. But they said the team is still assessing how much more money to send in the final weeks, in consultation with Senate Republicans and their top super PAC, the Senate Leadership Fund.
The Trump operative, who like others in this article was granted anonymity to speak candidly, would not commit to any plans when asked by Blue Light News.
With national Democrats starting to finally spend for their Senate nominee, James Talarico, after months of holding off, and as polling of the race tightens, Republicans expect the cost of salvaging Paxton’s campaign will only skyrocket. And, they’ve started to panic.
“It’s a five-alarm fire, no doubt,” one GOP senator said. “Can we put it out? I hope so.”
“This is a slow-moving car crash that we’re witnessing right now,” a Republican strategist in the state said. “And there’s a 75% chance that the ultimate result here will be catastrophic from a GOP Senate majority standpoint.”
A fourth Republican, a national operative, spoke to the urgency factor: “While it’s money we shouldn’t have needed to spend, it needs to be spent now,” said a national GOP operative, describing the state as more winnable than North Carolina, Georgia and potentially Ohio.
Even with a massive war chest, Texas is turning into a huge money sink for the GOP that senators worry could hurt them in other tight races as they work to defend deep-red states and try to flip blue seats in Michigan and New Hampshire.
Trump himself nodded to some of the concerns at a rally just across the Texas border in Oklahoma Thursday night, saying those voters aren’t the ones he’s concerned about.
“We’re worried about Michigan. We’re worried about Texas,” he told the crowd. “We’re worried about a few states.”The president is scheduled to visit Texas again next week for a rally in San Antonio next Wednesday.
SLF poured another $60 million into Texas on Wednesday, bringing its total expenditure there to a record-breaking $131 million. With the MAGA Inc. money and additional GOP ad reservations, the race is already on track to top $200 million from outside Republican groups hoping to save Paxton. Paxton’s own campaign recently announced a $20 million ad buy — one of the largest single media investments in a Texas Senate race.
Some Republicans want MAGA Inc. to take over spending for Paxton in Texas in the final few weeks, so SLF can focus its resources elsewhere. MAGA Inc. could also funnel money into SLF’s recently established Texas PAC. But, according to two people with direct knowledge of that matter, that hasn’t happened.
“At some point I think the people spending that money are going to have to make hard choices and figure out where the money can have the biggest impact, and certainly Texas is the most expensive,” Sen. John Cornyn, who lost to Trump-backed Paxton in the primary, recently told POLITICO.
SLF Executive Director Alex Latcham indicated to Blue Light News the group will keep spending in Texas: “Senate Leadership Fund’s investment through Texas PAC affirms our commitment to maintaining the Republican majority and defeating Far-Left liberals like James Talarico.”
But Republicans’ money concerns have been complicated by Paxton himself. A growing number of GOP senators and top operatives have been stunned by what they described as unforced errors by the Texas Senate nominee. For example, he crossed one of the brightest red lines with Trump, telling a group of donors that “everybody’s numbers dropped” after the president’s GOP convention in Dallas last month, according to the audio leak reported by The New York Times.
“There seems to be very little strategy there,” said another Republican senator, granted anonymity to candidly discuss the race. “Sometimes, I think [Paxton] wants to lose.”
The White House did not respond to a request for comment.
Trump, while on his way to Texas to tour a motor facility on Thursday, told reporters he hadn’t talked to Paxton about his convention comments. Later, he told a crowd in Texas that “Ken Paxton was at my side more than anybody, and I have to always remember that because he can be a pain in the ass sometimes. I’ll be honest.”
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) told reporters this week that he hadn’t seen the audio of Paxton trashing Trump’s convention. He acknowledged the stakes in his home state were high — and that the influx of cash is key.
“The reason that it is a serious race and a close race right now is that for several months the Democrats were massively outspending us,” he said, “and I am glad now that we are seeing money invested in communicating with the voters.”
The White House has attempted to reassure concerned senators, with chief of staff Susie Wiles telling Senate Republicans this week that there will be enough money available for competitive races in the final stretch, according to two people with knowledge of the meeting.
GOP operatives in both Michigan and New Hampshire said they feel that some of the cash being shoveled toward Texas should be going to their states instead. Most polls show Republicans running narrowly behind or neck and neck in both states, even though they hold a spending advantage on the airwaves there.
“We’re focusing so much on ‘we’ve got to put this money into Texas.’ Why? We’ve never had a problem in Texas. Let’s focus on taking back a seat we haven’t had in years,” said an ally of former Sen. John E. Sununu, who’s in a tight race against Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas. “There are real chances in Michigan and New Hampshire,” said the person, who was granted anonymity to speak candidly about the dynamics.
Sununu’s campaign did not respond to a request for comment.
Latcham, who heads SLF, said that “Texas PAC is a dedicated effort that will not take resources from our other ongoing investments across the Senate map.”
Recent polling still shows the Texas Senate race with a razor-thin margin. Most public polling over the past two months shows Talarico with an edge, though Paxton’s campaign released an internal poll Tuesday that shows Paxton leading by three points among likely voters, 48% to 45%.
“I don’t think the needle has moved in the last month,” said one Texas Republican elected official, granted anonymity to speak frankly. “Unless it’s the worst polling that’s ever been done in political history, all this spend hasn’t changed anything, and I think people have made their mind up.”
Lisa Kashinsky, Samuel Benson, Alex Gangitano and Kelsey Brugger contributed to this report.
- RFK Jr.’s movement is in disarray
- Ted Cruz blasts JD Vance as ‘insecure,’ says he’s focused on helping GOP win midterms
- Republicans don’t have a clear boogeyman for this year’s midterms
- Republicans tried to punt health care cuts until after the midterms. It didn’t work.
- Trump apparently shares Tom Cotton’s phone number in push to make Daylight Saving Time permanent
- ‘A slow-moving car crash:’ Republicans are wary of the $200 million-plus price tag to save Ken Paxton
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