Congress
House GOP continues to squabble over tax cuts as lawmakers enter a critical week
Prominent House Republicans are privately warring over how to advance tax cuts that are expiring and President Donald Trump’s long list of other tax demands — with Budget Chair Jodey Arrington and deficit hard-liner Rep. Chip Roy locked in a struggle against Ways and Means Chair Jason Smith and other senior Republicans.
The dispute is hindering Speaker Mike Johnson’s plan to advance a budget blueprint this week, as different GOP factions continue to squabble over the costs of the tax plan, how to offset them to reduce their deficit impact and possible cost-saving changes to programs including Medicare and assistance for low-income Americans.
Johnson confirmed Sunday that Republicans were continuing to work through several issues, again delaying his ambitious timeline.
Despite progress last week, one of the major hang-ups in negotiations over the GOP’s sweeping policy bill is that Arrington, fellow Texan Roy and other budget hawks are still scouring for additional and highly controversial spending cuts.
They are also pushing for changes to a critical piece of the complex process: the so-called “budget reconciliation instruction” for the tax writing Ways and Means Committee, according to two Republicans and another person familiar with the discussions who were granted anonymity to discuss the ongoing talks.
That instruction dictates the maximum amount by which the committee can increase the deficit, as lawmakers take into account a full extension of Trump’s 2017 tax cuts and the implementation of his other priorities, like exempting tips and overtime pay from federal income tax.
Smith (R-Mo.) presented a number at the GOP’s retreat in Doral, Florida last month — around $5.5 trillion — that reflected his committee’s understanding of how much it would cost to implement Trump’s priorities, after spending reductions and other revenue raisers Ways and Means can pull together.
Arrington, Roy and other fiscal hawks are trying to further constrain that committee’s deficit spending but are not on the same page as Smith on the reconciliation instruction. Other senior Republicans are worried they won’t be able to cram all of Trump’s tax demands into the package.
The number that lawmakers had tentatively settled on last Thursday — around $4.7 trillion — would make it virtually impossible to implement anything above an extension of the expiring tax cuts. House Republicans agreed during their White House meeting last week that they would permanently extend the 2017 tax cuts, which are estimated by Congress’ official accountants as costing $4.6 trillion.
The $4.7 trillion figure “is an implicit acknowledgement that something will have to give,” said Liam Donovan, a Republican strategist, in an interview.
“[T]here will absolutely have to be trade-offs. You simply can’t fit it all into that,” Donovan said.
Republicans have been discussing shorter timelines for some of Trump’s other tax priorities.
Arrington outlined to reporters last week that there were essentially two ways to adjust the cost of the GOP’s policy package.
“You got the tax dial and you got the spending reduction dials,” Arrington said.
But a senior GOP aide familiar with the discussions, granted anonymity to discuss the private deliberations, pointed out that “dials can only do so much.” Johnson, Smith and other GOP leaders are generally pushing to achieve all of Trump’s broad tax goals.
Roy also recently told reporters that if Republicans didn’t achieve deep enough spending cuts, then “we’re gonna have to be thinking about shorter-term tax rates or…which ones we’ll be able to address or not.”
Meanwhile, anger is rising across large pockets of the House GOP, who believe lowering the cost number would make it impossible to advance Trump’s tax priorities, including the extension of the expiring cuts and his add-ons
“Roy and Arrington will make the tax cut portion not passable,” said one GOP lawmaker.
Republicans will then be “facing the largest tax increase in history” or be forced to strike a bipartisan tax deal with Democrats before the current policies expire at the end of the year, the GOP lawmaker added.
The two Texans, the lawmaker said, should “listen to” GOP leaders and Smith.
The unrest is reigniting House GOP leaders’ concerns that Roy and other hard-liners are trying to burn time to undercut the leaders’ preference for a single bill that would include taxes, border policy, energy provisions and national security measures, according to two Republicans familiar with the conversations. The Senate favors a two-track strategy, that would include the border, energy and defense measures in one bill and leave taxes for later, in a separate bill.
Roy, Freedom Caucus Chair Andy Harris (R-Md.) and other hard-liners favor the two-bill approach and have been back-channeling with Senate Budget Chair Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) as he prepares to mark up his budget plans this week in committee.
Centrists and even some more conservative Republicans are also increasingly alarmed that Arrington keeps raising Medicare reforms as a potential spending offset, according to three Republicans familiar with the ongoing talks. Trump made it clear on the campaign trail that he doesn’t want to touch Medicare, but Arrington has suggested a variety of changes to the program that would lower costs in the Ways and Means’ jurisdiction.
House Republicans from corn-growing states are also infuriated that Arrington has his eye on slashing tax incentives for biofuels, after a similar move almost blew up former Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s 2023 debt ceiling deal. Many agriculture-state Republicans are already irritated at Arrington for declining to help them press the Congressional Budget Office for additional revenue for the farm bill last year, and tempers are flaring again.
GOP leaders are also planning to use tariff revenue to help pay for the massive bill, even though many Republicans are skeptical of such a move. Trump said Sunday he’s planning to announce new levies this week.
Republicans are also planning to include enacting the first-ever work requirements for Medicaid in the package, according to two people familiar with the ongoing talks. They’re also planning to expand work requirements for SNAP food aid benefits that help feed more than 40 million low-income Americans and a smaller cash assistance program known as Temporary Assistance for Needy Families.
The work requirements can be adjusted depending on how big of a funding gap they need to fill, according to Republicans involved in the discussions. For example, they can increase the age range of the additional work requirements if needed, along with plans to rescind the ability of states to request federal waivers for SNAP work requirements for certain individuals and other flexibilities in the program.
SYRACUSE, New York — President Donald Trump came to New York on Friday to help a Republican win an uphill race for governor. But his visit was also a reminder of the complicated role he plays in his party’s fight to keep control of Congress.
Trump rallied alongside GOP gubernatorial nominee Bruce Blakeman, calling on New Yorkers to fire Gov. Kathy Hochul and, referring to the state attorney general, “her totally corrupt sidekick, Letitia ‘Peekaboo’ James.”
“Your city and state are dirty, filthy places, and everybody wants to leave,” he told some 5,000 attendees at a convention center in downtown Syracuse — which, he noted, was “a short distance from the beautiful shores of Lake America.”
“You gotta get your act together, and I tell you what, Bruce Blakeman will get your act together,” Trump said.
For Republicans, the president’s appearance underscored a political dilemma that extends beyond New York: Even as Trump increasingly appears to be a drag on their ticket, they need his loyal supporters to energize their base. While voters have soured on the president’s handling of the economy and costs, he remains a potent force in turning out MAGA voters — even in an otherwise Democratic-dominated state.
“The targeting of where the president goes is not a random exercise,” Marist University pollster Lee Miringoff said. “They’re looking to stir the base without stirring the opposition. They’re picking and choosing, that’s not uncommon. For him to come to New York to help the turnout upstate is a positive for the Republicans and his base.”
Blakeman, the Nassau County executive, hasn’t distanced himself from the president — nor have most of the top officials in New York’s GOP. Nearly every Republican running a competitive congressional race in this half of the state came to Friday’s rally, eager to make their presence known.
“I’m always happy to be with the president,” said Anthony Constantino, who’s running in a nearby red district that’s inched into toss-up territory. “He’s the leader of the free world, and I’m excited to have a great relation with him.”
Some GOP operatives, however, have quietly grumbled that their candidates need to start creating some distance from the president. Republicans from other parts of the state like Rep. Mike Lawler decided that campaigning in their districts was more valuable than trekking to be seen with Trump — as did several down-ballot candidates in Central New York. Democrats, notably, have been just as eager to highlight the visit.
“This is supposed to be a swing district. And the feedback I get is that the president is very unpopular,” said Democratic Rep. John Mannion, who represents Syracuse and the surrounding Central New York area. “He still certainly will have his core base of supporters, but I do think he’s lost support here compared to what he had around the 2024 election.”
Blakeman, for his part, isn’t worried about Trump’s drop in popularity.
“Kathy Hochul should be worried about her drop in popularity,” he said before taking the stage in Syracuse. “She’s the most unpopular governor in the history of the state of New York.”
Trump’s visit came against the backdrop of a darkening political environment for New York Republicans.
Immigration and Customs Enforcement shot a man in Manhattan on Thursday afternoon, stirring fresh condemnation of Trump’s aggressive deportation policies. New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, a democratic socialist who has a surprisingly warm relationship with the president, called on him to cease all ICE activity in the five boroughs. Hochul stressed that the shooting took place with a five-year-old child present and demanded that federal authorities “provide answers.”
Immigration is one of several areas where Blakeman has hewed close to the Trump wing of the party throughout his campaign.
“I’m outraged with Kathy Hochul for taking sides with somebody who was a convicted felon, someone who was an alleged drug dealer, a gang member,” he said Friday about the shooting in Manhattan.
While Trump’s speech repeatedly careened back to the rhetoric one could expect from any of his rallies — boasts about the stock market, complaints about ‘Dumocrats’ — he did manage to seamlessly blend almost all of Blakeman’s oft-used talking points into his stump speech.
“Since Hochul took office, she’s raised your utility rates 48 times, and energy prices in New York have skyrocketed 100 percent,” Trump said. “If Bruce Blakeman gets in, he will cut your electric bills by 70, 80, 90 percent.”
The climate outside of deep blue New York City is also turning increasingly hostile to the GOP. Constantino, who’s running to succeed Rep. Elise Stefanik in upstate New York, trails his Democratic foe Blake Gendebien by 4 points, a Siena Research Institute survey released Friday morning found. A Blue Light News poll showed that nationally one in four Trump voters believe Republican candidates should break from the president in order to win in November.
The wisdom of appearing with Trump has been debated by Republicans throughout the country at a time when gas prices are high and a foreign war drags on. And New York Democrats aren’t viewing the presidential visit as a concern.
Much of Hochul’s messaging this year has focused on making sure New Yorkers know Blakeman and Trump are friends. Her most-aired TV commercial features a puppeteer saying one Republican would do the other’s bidding.
“Puppets are my life. You tell them what to say, they say it,” the narrator says. “But that’s not what you want in a governor.”
Earlier in the day during an MSNOW interview, Hochul dismissed the rally.
“It’s obviously a very political event,” she said. “It seems like a last-ditch effort to breathe some life into a campaign that’s on life support.”
Despite his low approval ratings with voters, Trump’s visit stands to light up a Republican base that Blakeman will need to turn out next month to help him defeat Hochul.
Polling has shown the governor leading the GOP nominee by as much as 18 points in this deep blue state. Yet some Trump supporters maintain the president can help generate much-needed enthusiasm for Blakeman, especially in areas of upstate New York where the Long Island native is not well known.
“We actually have the ability to win these elections, but I just don’t see the enthusiasm out there,” Conservative Party Chair Gerard Kassar said. “Hochul has won the day as far as being a terrible governor, but now we’ve got to get our people out to vote.”
Winning is still a tall order for Blakeman — especially in a tough national political environment where polls show GOP candidates in red states like Texas, Ohio and Kansas struggling against Democratic challengers.
Republicans have not won statewide in New York since George Pataki secured a third term in 2002. Since then, the GOP has lost all levers of statewide power, and Trump’s tariffs as well as his decision to launch a war in Iran have not helped him fulfill his campaign pledge of addressing voters’ cost concerns.
The president’s political woes aren’t going unnoticed.
Privately, Republican operatives grumbled that the president’s visit put swing seat candidates in an uncomfortable spot.
“There’s a lot of commiserating between folks within the party structure — why is this happening? Why is he doing this?” said one Republican operative who was granted anonymity to freely discuss the dynamic. “Then you’ve got the blind loyalists who say, ‘Yay Trump’s coming’ — people who are too politically dumb to understand the ramifications of it.”
Yet the head of the Republican party kept his message very much in line with Hochul’s.
“Please pretend I’m on the ballot,” Trump told Central New Yorkers.
Sen. Chris Murphy wants Democrats to go big for Angie Nixon in Florida’s Senate race — and he’s pushing to raise some “serious money” to help.
“I do believe that we’d make a big mistake if we slept on Florida,” the Connecticut Democrat told Blue Light News on Friday. “I know it feels like a longer shot, but I just think this year is looking exceptional.”
Murphy plans to hit the trail with Nixon as part of a campaign swing for Senate candidates over the next three weeks that will take him through North Carolina and Florida, as well as events with Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan, Peggy Flanagan in Minnesota and Chris Pappas in New Hampshire. Murphy will serve as a surrogate for El-Sayed in the spin room at his next debate, and said he’s “just a big believer” in the Michigan Senate nominee.
Murphy’s bullishness about a blue wave comes as Senate Democrats are pushing the boundaries of a midterm battle map that is shifting further into red territory. The Chuck Schumer-aligned Senate Majority PAC has dropped roughly $5 million apiece into Texas and Kansas over recent days, and the minority leader has included Kansas and Mississippi in his pitches to donors.
“If I were in charge, I would definitely put some resources in Florida,” Murphy said. “When you have an exciting candidate like this, it’s a good long-term investment” in growing Democrats’ activist base.
Still, Murphy stressed he’s “not making any formal recommendations” on where Schumer or top Democratic campaign groups should move their money.
“They’ve got so many mouths to feed,” Murphy said. “That’s why I’m going to try to step up and do some work on my own.”
Murphy, who is considered a potential 2028 presidential contender, has spread roughly $2.5 million across candidates, campaign arms and other organizations this cycle. That includes transferring more than $500,000 to Democrats’ three top campaign arms and 25 state parties.
Prominent Democrats have been ramping up their attention on Florida. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) has funneled $250,000 toward Nixon’s campaign, along with other resources. Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) also told Blue Light News he hopes to campaign with Nixon.
But Democrats across suddenly competitive red states are clamoring for more cash and Florida is an expensive state, complicating the chances of a significant investment from national groups.
Nixon also faces an uphill battle against GOP Sen. Ashley Moody in the Sunshine State. A progressive state lawmaker, Nixon aligned herself with the Democratic Socialists of America over the summer in a state where many voters, especially those with ties to Cuba, reject such an ideology. Also, Republicans in Florida have a 1.5 million voter registration advantage over Democrats.
Senate Democrats’ top super PAC is pushing into Kansas.
The Chuck Schumer-aligned Senate Majority PAC is launching a $5 million statewide television ad blitz starting Saturday through Election Day — the latest sign that Democrats believe the Senate map is shifting onto red turf.
SMP had signaled in recent days it could get involved in the race, telling Blue Light News late last month it was “actively thinking” about whether to wade into the state where Democrats haven’t won a Senate seat in nearly a century but where Adam Hamilton narrowly leads GOP Sen. Roger Marshall in recent polls. Internal SMP polling that found an increasingly competitive race factored into the group’s decision to spend. It will also run digital ads.
“The gap is closing in Kansas,” SMP spokesperson Lauren French said in a statement. “We are committed to ensuring families understand Marshall’s real record of making health care and basic goods more expensive for working Kansans.”
Republicans are scrambling to shore up Marshall. Senate Leadership Fund, a top GOP super PAC aligned with Republican leadership, has booked over $10 million in ads through Election Day in the state, per ad tracking firm AdImpact.
SMP’s first ad attacks Marshall for joining Senate Republicans in voting to table a Democratic-led amendment last year to release the Jeffrey Epstein files. The Senate later approved legislation to release the files by unanimous consent. It’s the latest in a slate of ads from Democrats hitting their Republican rivals over the late, disgraced financier and convicted sex offender. Marshall’s campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Senate Democrats’ plunge into the state comes as the midterm battle map is undergoing a major realignment. Georgia and North Carolina — primed to be two of the cycle’s premiere battlegrounds — are tilting left to the point where national Republicans are retracting spending in both states and Democrats are starting to follow suit, freeing funds on both sides to shift elsewhere.
Republicans are racing to reinforce incumbents across what was once safer red turf. SLF has also pledged $5 million to bolster Sen. Darline Graham in South Carolina.
Democrats, meanwhile, are starting to spend more in red states. SMP has dropped over $2 million on digital ads in Texas. Schumer, the Senate minority leader, has included Kansas and Mississippi in his pitches to donors.
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