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Here’s what to remember if Donald Trump tries to claim he won early on election night

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Here’s what to remember if Donald Trump tries to claim he won early on election night

While we can’t be certain who will win the presidential election, we can predict one thing with a high degree of confidence: Donald Trump will claim he won. And he’ll probably do this on Tuesday night. I want to lay out why it’s important not to jump to conclusions about who is winning, and instead prepare for the vote counting to take a few days — at least.

In 2020, it took four days after the polls closed for the race to be called for Joe Biden. This was a slower count than usual, and for good reason: Many states had expanded their use of early and absentee voting due to the pandemic, and it can simply take longer to count all those ballots. On top of that, voter turnout was unusually high — 158 million people voted, nearly 22 million more than had voted four years earlier.

One of the patterns we’ve seen in recent elections will likely occur this year as well.

It’s unlikely that the vote counting will take quite as long this time. States have become more efficient at counting early and absentee ballots, and a number of states have scaled back the accessibility of such votes. Also, simply because Covid is no longer as much of a threat, more people are voting in person this year.But one of the patterns we’ve seen in recent elections will likely occur this year as well: the “blue shift” (or “red mirage”). In many states, in-person votes get counted before early and absentee ballots do. Thanks in part to Trump’s disparaging of mail-in voting in recent years, Democrats are more likely to cast an early vote than Republicans are.

What this means is that the first results reported on Tuesday evening are likely to trend a bit Republican, then swing toward the Democrats as the mail-in ballots are totaled. Now, that doesn’t matter for the final count, but it could affect how the media covers the counting. As he did in 2020, Trump will use the early Republican-leaning vote count to try to claim that he has won and that later votes coming in for Harris are signs of malfeasance. This is definitely not true! But it will likely be the basis of lawsuits he files. He is already claiming fraud and the election hasn’t even happened yet.

Now, there’s no guarantee this will go on for very long. Right now, the polls suggest that the swing states are basically tied. It’s pretty likely that the polls are off by 1 or 2 points — this is historically pretty normal — and they’ll probably be off in the same direction across different states. Which means there’s a plausible chance that either Harris or Trump will win most or all of the swing states. If it looks like it’s heading that way on Tuesday night, we might not need many days to figure this out. We could even wake up the next morning with a new president-elect.But chances are we’re going to be focusing on a handful of states overnight Tuesday. I want to mention four that are likely to be both close and slow:

Pennsylvania is the big prize this year. Its 19 Electoral Votes make it very likely that whoever wins the state will become president. But under state laws, election workers will not process any ballots — including the early and mail votes — until the polls close at 8:00 p.m. ET. Given how close the election appears right now, it could take a day or two to call the state.

Arizona, with 11 electoral votes, has an unusually long ballot this year, which could delay vote counts. And the mail-in ballots received on Election Day won’t be tabulated until after the polls close that evening. Once the state starts counting it tends to move pretty quickly, but most outlets did not call the state in 2020 until more than a week after the election, so it may be hard to call it on Tuesday night.

Michigan, with 15 electoral votes, could also take a while. The state spans two time zones, with the Upper Peninsula not closing its polls until 9:00 p.m. ET.

Nevada, with six electoral votes, took several days to be called in 2020, and a new law allows ballots postmarked by Election Day to be counted if they’re received up to four days after the election is over. Again, if the election is very close, this state could be tough to call.

As we watch the votes get tallied, it will be useful to observe how voting patterns differ from four years ago. That and exit polls can give us an idea of how things are going to develop as the counting goes on.But chances are, we’ll just need to be patient. Yes, we’ll want to know quickly, and yes, Trump will try to exploit the uncertainty for his own ends. But it’s really just a matter of counting the votes. And the time that it takes to finish the task is evidence that the counters are taking their job seriously.

Seth Masket

Seth Masket is a professor of political science and director of the Center on American Politics at the University of Denver. Follow his Substack at https://smotus.substack.com/

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Andy Beshear hits Newsom for hosting Bannon on his new podcast

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Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear took a swipe Thursday at a fellow leading Democrat, California Gov. Gavin Newsom, for hosting one of the most prominent figures in the MAGA movement on his new podcast.

Beshear, whose popularity in a heavily Republican state has turned him into a potential presidential candidate, told reporters that Newsom shouldn’t have opened his platform to Steve Bannon, an outspoken advocate of the “America first” agenda of President Donald Trump.

“I think that Governor Newsom bringing on different voices is great, we shouldn’t be afraid to talk and to debate just about anyone,” Beshear said at a Democratic policy retreat in Virginia. “But Steve Bannon espouses hatred and anger, and even at some points violence, and I don’t think we should give him oxygen on any platform, ever, anywhere.”

The criticism of Newsom, who is widely expected to run for president, amounted to what could be an early skirmish in the next Democratic primary. It also reflects divisions within a party trying to find its footing after Trump’s resounding victory.

The California governor recently launched the podcast, which appears to some degree to be an effort to find common ground with an ascendant conservative movement.

In his debut episode, speaking to Charlie Kirk of Turning Point USA, Newsom drew widespread attention — and criticism — for suggesting that Democrats were wrong to allow transgender athletes to participate in female youth sports. He was also critical of progressives who have called for defunding the police or who use the gender neutral term “Latinx.”

Newsom defended his approach and the Bannon interview in an email statement on Wednesday, saying it is “critically important” to understand Trump’s movement and how it successfully operated in the last campaign.

In the hour-long episode, Bannon repeated the debunked claims that the 2020 election was stolen amid a discussion that also covered tariffs and taxes.

“I think we all agreed after the last election that it’s important for Democrats to explore new and unique ways of talking to people,” Newsom said.

A spokesperson for Newsom, who plans to have Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz on his next episode, did not immediately respond to a request for comment about Beshear’s remarks.

The Kentucky governor, who was a featured speaker at the retreat along with Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, was not alone in criticizing the Bannon interview.

Former Republican Rep. Adam Kinzinger, who was one of the few Republicans in Congress to challenge Trump, called it an “insane” decision to host Bannon.

“I am in shock at the stupidity of [Newsom] inviting Steve Bannon on his podcast,” Kinzinger said Wednesday. “Many of us on the right sacrificed careers to fight Bannon, and Newsom is trying to make a career and a presidential run by building him up.”

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Top Illinois Democrat readies a Senate bid — and tells people she has major backing

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Ambitious Illinois Democrats are dreaming about Sen. Dick Durbin’s exit in 2026. The latest contender: the state’s lieutenant governor.

Juliana Stratton, who first took office in 2019, is quietly positioning herself for a Senate bid if Durbin bows out, calling key Democratic figures to ask for support, according to three people with knowledge of her plans, one of whom spoke with her directly and the other two who spoke with members of her team.

And she and her staff have said that she’s already secured the support of Gov. JB Pritzker, the three people said. They were granted anonymity to discuss private conversations and avoid political retribution. She and her team have made clear she expects Pritzker to be heavily involved financially, those people said.

“Juliana continues to keep an open mind about future opportunities, and if she does decide to pursue higher office, she’d be proud to earn the governor’s support while working to build a broad grassroots coalition,” said a spokesperson for the lieutenant governor, granted anonymity to discuss private conversations.

Pritzker, a high-profile governor and potential 2028 hopeful, is already a prolific Democratic donor and party operator, and his vast personal wealth would be a significant boost to any candidate. His money and endorsement could transform the brewing shadow primary that includes several members of the state’s congressional delegation.

His team declined to discuss an endorsement or financial backing in any potential primary. “We’re not going to engage with hypotheticals for a seat that’s not even open,” said a person close to the governor’s political operation granted anonymity to speak candidly.

The governor hand-picked Stratton, then a state representative, to be his running mate in 2017 and he was a guest of honor last month at a fundraising event for her newly formed federal PAC.

Illinois Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton speaks to reporters as Gov. JB Pritzker, to her left, looks on with other state lawmakers in Chicago on Feb. 10, 2025.

Pritzker, a billionaire heir to the Hyatt hotel empire, could support that PAC as well as donate millions to any other super PACs supporting her campaign. That kind of financial support could make Stratton the front-runner in a primary that would essentially guarantee a spot in the Senate in the heavily blue state.

And if a Pritzker-backed candidate wins the race, it could help position him even more firmly as a major Democratic powerbroker, one whose influence could extend beyond Illinois political circles as 2028 approaches.

Durbin has served in the Senate since 1997 and while many Democrats expect the 80-year-old will retire, those close to him say he hasn’t yet decided.

In a brief interview Wednesday, Durbin acknowledged the lieutenant governor was among the Democrats who are preparing for his possible retirement: “She said if I run she’s not going to.”

Democratic Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi has been padding his campaign account for years for a possible Senate run. He had amassed $17.1 million by the end of 2024. His fellow Democratic Reps. Lauren Underwood, who flipped a GOP-held district in 2018, and Robin Kelly, the former chair of the Illinois Democratic Party, are also eyeing the seat.

And Illinois Democrats have made a parlor game of wondering what’s next for Rahm Emanuel, the former Chicago mayor who just returned from an ambassador stint in Japan. For now, he’s a commentator on BLN.

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‘Be careful about this’: Warnings abound as GOP considers writing off tax cuts

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‘Be careful about this’: Warnings abound as GOP considers writing off tax cuts

Republicans will discuss the accounting maneuver with President Donald Trump on Thursday…
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