Congress
Generational change meets its limits with Connolly’s win over AOC
Rep. Gerry Connolly’s triumph over Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez for the top Democratic spot on the Oversight Committee illustrates the limits of the party’s demand for generational change, with a well-established centrist beating out a progressive standard-bearer.
While the victory went beyond ideology, there were simmering fears among centrists about how elevating Ocasio-Cortez, an outspoken liberal who has gone viral for her moments on the panel before, would turn out. There was also a sense that it was Connolly’s turn, after he had previously run for the Oversight spot twice and served on the panel for 15 years, according to interviews with eight Democratic lawmakers.
Connolly also used his strong relationships in the centrist New Democrat Coalition, considered the largest ideological bloc in the caucus, to build significant support, after Ocasio-Cortez surged early on. Incoming New Democrat Coalition Chair Brad Schneider (D-Ill.) made calls on behalf of Connolly after the group’s endorsement Friday, said a person granted anonymity to discuss the private outreach.
Former Speaker Nancy Pelosi also phoned other lawmakers on his behalf — a factor other lawmakers said was significant, but not nearly as decisive as Connolly’s own relationships throughout the caucus.
“The membership comes together and makes these decisions. Members make individual decisions,” said Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.). “I’ve seen leadership weigh in on races in the caucus and win some and lose some.”
Connolly’s internal whip count of roughly 130 lawmakers that POLITICO reported Friday almost exactly mirrored the final whip count of 131 votes for him on Tuesday morning.
Ocasio-Cortez’s allies had projected early confidence in the race and had hoped to capitalize on a post-election appetite for change in the caucus. But while other ranking members largely fell to or stepped aside for younger challengers, members still largely felt it wasn’t right to bypass 74-year-old Connolly for the 35-year-old progressive darling. And despite the calls for a shift in leadership and some concerns about Connolly’s recent cancer diagnosis, House Democrats aren’t totally willing to abandon their attachment to seniority.
“I think that there are challenges in totally abandoning the seniority system here, because if seniority is not the rule, money becomes the rule,” said Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D-Texas), who’d been the first Democrat to call for President Joe Biden to drop his reelection bid earlier this year.
Lawmakers cemented their decisions to cast aside other senior committee leaders even as they elevated Connolly on Tuesday morning, electing Reps. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.) and Angie Craig (D-Minn.) as ranking members to succeed lawmakers who’d faced questions about their health and attendance in Congress.
Maryland Rep. Steny Hoyer, a former top Democratic leader, spoke up in caucus in support of deferring to seniority. He said he did so on behalf of Pelosi, who was absent from Tuesday’s meetings while she recovered from hip replacement surgery after a fall. In addition to Connolly, Pelosi had also backed Huffman and Rep. Jim Costa (D-Calif.), who failed in his bid to take the ranking position on the Agriculture Committee, as part of a push by the California delegation to back their own.
“The fact that you’re senior does not necessarily mean you have the ability,” Hoyer said after the elections. “But if you have the ability, then seniority certainly reflects service, experience, knowledge of the committee, and I think that’s perhaps what made the difference in the Connolly race.”
Leading up to the vote, Ocasio-Cortez had sought to neutralize concerns from centrists in the party. She indicated to members of the Steering and Policy Committee on Monday, who ultimately recommended Connolly for the spot, that she could stop backing primary challengers to sitting lawmakers.
“I think a lot of members know Ocasio-Cortez would be best, but I think there’s some heartburn with New Dems and [moderates] she would put them in a tough spot by going hard on cultural issues,” said one neutral Democratic leadership aide, granted anonymity to speak candidly.
Ocasio-Cortez’s loss left her allies fuming. Hill progressives had cited the New Yorker’s power to mobilize millions on social media and her skills as a communicator as a huge benefit for a job that will largely involve messaging against the right.
“There is one person in our caucus that has the ear of millions and millions of people with just the touch of her finger, and that is Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez,” said Rep. Becca Balint (D-Vt.).
And some members warned not to expect that Tuesday’s elections will be the end of intergenerational contests in the party.
“Those of us who have come up more recently within the Congress understand that the American people have had it with seniority issues,” Balint added. “Nobody in our districts cares about relationships in the building.”
House Democrats’ campaign arm is expanding its target list just three weeks ahead of Election Day, going on the air for the first time in four more districts with coordinated ad buys with the candidates.
The move, part of $13 million in coordinated ads launching this week across 39 districts and first shared with Blue Light News, is the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s largest reach of investments this cycle as Republicans are working to defend a slew of redder seats in the final stretch.
The new districts include a toss-up race in Florida’s newly redrawn 22nd District, which Trump would have won by 10 points in 2024, as well as for Democrats’ uphill fight to defend Maine’s 2nd District, which President Donald Trump carried by nine points and where Democratic Rep. Jared Golden is retiring.
They’re also launching coordinated ads in New Jersey’s swingy 7th District, squarely within New York City’s expensive media market, where Democrats are working to unseat GOP Rep. Tom Kean Jr.
The coordinated ad buys also include Texas’s redrawn 35th District, where Democrat Johnny Garcia is running neck and neck with Republican Carlos De La Cruz in a suburban San Antonio district Republicans drew to win that Trump would have carried by 10 points.
The DCCC’s move comes as President Donald Trump’s MAGA Inc.-aligned super PAC and a leading House GOP super PAC are planning to ditch spending in a group of House races in the coming days, as they race to shore up other House seats and salvage the Senate GOP majority.
“As Republicans pull out of media markets and cede that they are no longer competitive in multiple districts, the DCCC is continuing to go on the offensive,” DCCC National Political Director Brooke Butler said.
The NRCC has been up with ads in the four districts for weeks.
“While Democrats are just now scraping together the cash to bail out their radical socialists in critical battleground districts, House Republicans have been dominating the airwaves in those same districts and dozens more for weeks,” NRCC spokesperson Mike Marinella said. “The DCCC is desperately playing catch-up where Republicans have already lapped them.”
The DCCC didn’t share the exact size of the specific coordinated ad buys, only saying they were six-figure commitments.
Former Rep. Mary Peltola raked in $17 million over the last three months, her campaign shared first with Blue Light News, a sizable haul for the Democratic challenger in one of the biggest Senate battlegrounds.
It’s Peltola’s largest quarterly fundraising total in her bid to oust GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan. Her campaign also said it’s a record third-quarter sum for a Senate candidate in Alaska.
“Alaskans are sick and tired of DC politicians making life more expensive for everyone while they keep lining their own pockets, and they know it’s time for a change,” Peltola said in a statement thanking her supporters.
That total includes nearly $3 million in Peltola raised in July, before Alaska’s all-party primary in August, which was previously reported to the Federal Election Commission. Peltola’s campaign did not release her cash on hand for the quarter that ended Oct. 1.
Sullivan’s campaign has not yet released his third-quarter numbers. Sullivan had just under $7.3 million in cash on hand as of July 29, while Peltola had $4.6 million at that point.
Alaska has emerged as a core battleground this cycle as both parties reorient around redder states while Georgia and North Carolina tilt toward Democrats. Recent polls show a tight race.
Republicans are racing to shore up Sullivan in the four-way, ranked-choice general election in which the senator is also facing a same-name challenger in retired teacher Dan J. Sullivan. Some in the party fear he could siphon votes from the incumbent.
President Donald Trump is heading to Alaska for a rally later Tuesday in Wasilla that Sullivan is slated to attend, the senator’s campaign confirmed. Vice President JD Vance swung through the state last week.
Peltola’s fundraising prowess has helped her hold her own on the airwaves. Republicans hold a slim spending advantage on the TV ad reservations for the final three weeks of the campaign, with both parties posting over $9 million in reservations, per tracker AdImpact.
Republicans’ dreams of a productive lame-duck session are dimming.
Members returning to Washington post-election will have a mere 24 legislative days to get through a considerable list of must-pass bills and possibly messy internal leadership fights. That’s if they can overcome a potential transition of power on Capitol Hill and a foul national mood.
Lawmakers’ must-do list includes: an extension of government funding past Dec. 11 and the annual Pentagon policy bill. Major legislation to reauthorize farm, transportation and surveillance programs are also on deck.
Then there are pending bipartisan bills overhauling energy permitting and the college sports industry that many members are itching to get done.
And finally, leaders had deferred some GOP priorities — such as another party-line reconciliation bill or debt-limit increase through the end of President Donald Trump’s term.
All of the measures face their own potential political minefields individually, as well as a number of obstacles across the board:
— ATTENDANCE: There will be little incentive for lawmakers who just lost their seats — “free-range chickens,” some call them — to grind out legislative wins, if they come back at all.
“The question becomes: Who shows up for work after the elections?” Rep. Austin Scott said in an interview. “Attendance is an issue right now.”
— NEW LEVERAGE: If Democrats win control of either chamber, they’ll likely seek greater influence on legislation to push back on Trump’s actions.
For example, Democrats are fuming over the Trump administration’s recent decision to block roughly $1 billion in congressionally approved funding, which could complicate any deal on spending legislation. They’ve also blocked the annual Pentagon policy bill amid a standoff over the Iran war; and they may push for more concessions on the permitting deal.
“The lame duck will be quite different if we win the Senate,” Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said in a recent interview.
— GOP DISPUTES: While some Republicans believe that losing a chamber would jump-start the reconciliation process, others privately believe the exact opposite would happen, with incentives waning for exiting lawmakers, according to three GOP aides granted anonymity to speak candidly.
Other GOP senators, like Sen. Cynthia Lummis, are skeptical of a debt-limit increase.
A Democratic flip of the House could also spark a potentially chaotic cascade of GOP leadership elections (more on that below).
Sen. John Kennedy speculated Congress’ agenda would all come down to the vibes of the GOP conference when they returned.
“You have no idea what the mood is going to be,” Kennedy said.
What else we’re watching:
— JOHNSON SCRAMBLES LEADERSHIP OUTLOOK: Republicans are reassessing the dynamics of potential leadership races after Speaker Mike Johnson‘s comments Monday that he would run for minority leader if the GOP loses the House — just days after he floated leaving Congress altogether in that scenario. Many Republicans had predicted Johnson would step aside with a House flip, likely setting off a race between Majority Leader Steve Scalise and Judiciary Chair Jim Jordan for the top GOP spot. If Johnson stays put, his success may depend on the severity of the party’s loss and if Trump weighs in for a certain candidate. “I hope he’s smarter than that,” one House Republican said of Johnson’s consideration of the minority leader role. “It would end very badly and cause unnecessary damage to the conference.”
— DEMS GEAR UP ON TRADE OVERSIGHT — Democrats on the House Ways and Means, Senate Finance and other panels say Trump’s trade deals were corrupt, and they’re already lining up targets to probe. The party knows it can’t repeal Trump’s tariffs as long as he’s in the White House, but if they win control of Congress, they plan to haul in top administration officials and possibly executives to explain how Trump picked his targets in his trade war — and if others got a pass through suspected quid pro quos.
Jordain Carney, Daniel Desrochers and Oliver Ward contributed to this report.
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