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Funding meltdown foreshadows Johnson’s tough year ahead

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Speaker Mike Johnson’s efforts to pass a short-term spending bill before Friday’s shutdown deadline should’ve been fairly straightforward. Instead, it has turned into yet another test of his ability to steer a chaotic conference as he embraces an ambitious agenda next year.

Johnson and his team are working to minimize GOP defections while keeping enough Democratic support, since he can’t pass the funding extension with only Republican votes. But a demand for farm aid from Republicans in agriculture-heavy districts is complicating the negotiations, prompting Democrats to ask for additional concessions and fueling conservative ire over increased spending.

Those hardliners likely wouldn’t vote for a stopgap spending bill regardless, but if they’re angry enough it could cause problems for Johnson on Jan. 3, when he will need nearly unanimous GOP support in order to maintain the speakership.

Johnson already tried to appease ultraconservatives, but the move inflamed the farm-district Republicans; he shot down their ask last Tuesday to fund the economic aid via conservation money in Democrats’ partisan Inflation Reduction Act. Johnson and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell held firm on that position in the Friday night talks. That triggered those GOP lawmakers to publicly and privately threaten to vote against the final funding stopgap if it doesn’t include billions in economic assistance for farmers.

“It’s a must-have,” said House Agriculture Chair G.T. Thompson. He and others argue they need to pass additional economic aid to protect struggling farmers against a new wave of bankruptcies and financial pain in rural America, where the majority of voters supported Donald Trump.

Thompson said that he was “pleased with the conversations” happening now, after leadership talks over the matter blew up overnight on Dec. 13. Johnson’s team spent the weekend quietly trying to hold off a massive wave of farm district Republican opposition to the funding measure. Appropriations Chair Tom Cole (R-Okla.) said Monday that the “differences are narrowing.”

“We’re working through it. I’m optimistic,” he added.

Still, it’s a bad sign for Republicans in the next Congress. Unlike a funding punt, negotiations over ambitious, party-line bills on the border, taxes and energy are already expected to get extremely complicated. Despite Trump coming to the White House and Republicans taking control of the Senate, Johnson will still have a tough job as he navigates the demands of a diverse conference on several high-priority campaign issues with virtually no room for error.

“Next year is going to be fun,” a GOP aide involved in the funding talks said wryly, granted anonymity to speak candidly.

For now, GOP leaders have told lawmakers that Johnson wants to pass the entire government funding measure and separate supplemental disaster package together, via a process called suspension. But that process requires a two-thirds majority, which means Johnson needs all the backing he can get, not just from his own party, but also from Democrats. And Johnson’s antagonists will be watching closely to see if he can get a majority of Republicans to vote for the ultimate spending deal, which is viewed as a key test of leadership’s support within the GOP ranks.

Hardliners are already largely opposed to the farm bill extension that leaders want to attach to the stopgap, arguing Congress needs to slash farm subsidies and other spending. That group is now leaning on Johnson to reject any new spending in the funding stopgap, as his speakership hangs in the balance.

“Adding things to the farm bill, I know farmers are hurting, but where is this coming from?” Freedom Caucus member Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) said.

GOP leaders already weren’t counting on several of those conservatives to vote for the funding deal, as they typically take a principled stance against stopgaps. If Johnson loses more GOP votes, he’ll have to bend to more Democratic demands to push the package through Congress before Friday’s deadline.

Congressional leaders on Monday were circling a final funding deal with $10 billion in economic aid for farmers as part of the agreement, possibly up to $12 billion depending on what Republicans agree to on Democratic demands in return. House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) told reporters Monday morning that leaders may be able to release the text of the massive bill in the coming hours, but he stressed that nothing was final yet.

“No white smoke yet, still working through the final pieces,” Scalise said late Monday morning.

There’s another demand Johnson is trying to balance. Farm district Reps. Zach Nunn (R-Iowa) and Don Bacon (R-Neb.) are behind an effort to insert a waiver into the spending package that would allow year-round E15 ethanol fuel sales. Conservatives, who overwhelmingly oppose ethanol subsidies, are furious at that prospect.

Trump himself has a complicated history balancing support for the ethanol and oil industries.

Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas), an outspoken conservative who typically opposes stopgap funding bills and hasn’t said how he will vote on the speakership, said Monday that the ethanol deal and other provisions should not be passed in the spending package.

“Call me crazy, but we should reduce the deficit and not pass stupid policies,” Roy, a member of the Freedom Caucus, said on X.

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Congress

House Dems launch ads in four more Trump districts

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House Democrats’ campaign arm is expanding its target list just three weeks ahead of Election Day, going on the air for the first time in four more districts with coordinated ad buys with the candidates.

The move, part of $13 million in coordinated ads launching this week across 39 districts and first shared with Blue Light News, is the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s largest reach of investments this cycle as Republicans are working to defend a slew of redder seats in the final stretch.

The new districts include a toss-up race in Florida’s newly redrawn 22nd District, which Trump would have won by 10 points in 2024, as well as for Democrats’ uphill fight to defend Maine’s 2nd District, which President Donald Trump carried by nine points and where Democratic Rep. Jared Golden is retiring.

They’re also launching coordinated ads in New Jersey’s swingy 7th District, squarely within New York City’s expensive media market, where Democrats are working to unseat GOP Rep. Tom Kean Jr.

The coordinated ad buys also include Texas’s redrawn 35th District, where Democrat Johnny Garcia is running neck and neck with Republican Carlos De La Cruz in a suburban San Antonio district Republicans drew to win that Trump would have carried by 10 points.

The DCCC’s move comes as President Donald Trump’s MAGA Inc.-aligned super PAC and a leading House GOP super PAC are planning to ditch spending in a group of House races in the coming days, as they race to shore up other House seats and salvage the Senate GOP majority.

“As Republicans pull out of media markets and cede that they are no longer competitive in multiple districts, the DCCC is continuing to go on the offensive,” DCCC National Political Director Brooke Butler said.

The NRCC has been up with ads in the four districts for weeks.

“While Democrats are just now scraping together the cash to bail out their radical socialists in critical battleground districts, House Republicans have been dominating the airwaves in those same districts and dozens more for weeks,” NRCC spokesperson Mike Marinella said. “The DCCC is desperately playing catch-up where Republicans have already lapped them.”

The DCCC didn’t share the exact size of the specific coordinated ad buys, only saying they were six-figure commitments.

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Mary Peltola raises $17 million in Q3 in Alaska’s Senate race

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Former Rep. Mary Peltola raked in $17 million over the last three months, her campaign shared first with Blue Light News, a sizable haul for the Democratic challenger in one of the biggest Senate battlegrounds.

It’s Peltola’s largest quarterly fundraising total in her bid to oust GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan. Her campaign also said it’s a record third-quarter sum for a Senate candidate in Alaska.

“Alaskans are sick and tired of DC politicians making life more expensive for everyone while they keep lining their own pockets, and they know it’s time for a change,” Peltola said in a statement thanking her supporters.

That total includes nearly $3 million in Peltola raised in July, before Alaska’s all-party primary in August, which was previously reported to the Federal Election Commission. Peltola’s campaign did not release her cash on hand for the quarter that ended Oct. 1.

Sullivan’s campaign has not yet released his third-quarter numbers. Sullivan had just under $7.3 million in cash on hand as of July 29, while Peltola had $4.6 million at that point.

Alaska has emerged as a core battleground this cycle as both parties reorient around redder states while Georgia and North Carolina tilt toward Democrats. Recent polls show a tight race.

Republicans are racing to shore up Sullivan in the four-way, ranked-choice general election in which the senator is also facing a same-name challenger in retired teacher Dan J. Sullivan. Some in the party fear he could siphon votes from the incumbent.

President Donald Trump is heading to Alaska for a rally later Tuesday in Wasilla that Sullivan is slated to attend, the senator’s campaign confirmed. Vice President JD Vance swung through the state last week.

Peltola’s fundraising prowess has helped her hold her own on the airwaves. Republicans hold a slim spending advantage on the TV ad reservations for the final three weeks of the campaign, with both parties posting over $9 million in reservations, per tracker AdImpact.

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Capitol agenda: GOP readies for an underwhelming lame duck

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Republicans’ dreams of a productive lame-duck session are dimming.

Members returning to Washington post-election will have a mere 24 legislative days to get through a considerable list of must-pass bills and possibly messy internal leadership fights. That’s if they can overcome a potential transition of power on Capitol Hill and a foul national mood.

Lawmakers’ must-do list includes: an extension of government funding past Dec. 11 and the annual Pentagon policy bill. Major legislation to reauthorize farm, transportation and surveillance programs are also on deck.

Then there are pending bipartisan bills overhauling energy permitting and the college sports industry that many members are itching to get done.

And finally, leaders had deferred some GOP priorities — such as another party-line reconciliation bill or debt-limit increase through the end of President Donald Trump’s term.

All of the measures face their own potential political minefields individually, as well as a number of obstacles across the board:

— ATTENDANCE: There will be little incentive for lawmakers who just lost their seats — “free-range chickens,” some call them — to grind out legislative wins, if they come back at all.

“The question becomes: Who shows up for work after the elections?” Rep. Austin Scott said in an interview. “Attendance is an issue right now.”

— NEW LEVERAGE: If Democrats win control of either chamber, they’ll likely seek greater influence on legislation to push back on Trump’s actions.

For example, Democrats are fuming over the Trump administration’s recent decision to block roughly $1 billion in congressionally approved funding, which could complicate any deal on spending legislation. They’ve also blocked the annual Pentagon policy bill amid a standoff over the Iran war; and they may push for more concessions on the permitting deal.

“The lame duck will be quite different if we win the Senate,” Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said in a recent interview.

— GOP DISPUTES: While some Republicans believe that losing a chamber would jump-start the reconciliation process, others privately believe the exact opposite would happen, with incentives waning for exiting lawmakers, according to three GOP aides granted anonymity to speak candidly.

Other GOP senators, like Sen. Cynthia Lummis, are skeptical of a debt-limit increase.

A Democratic flip of the House could also spark a potentially chaotic cascade of GOP leadership elections (more on that below).

Sen. John Kennedy speculated Congress’ agenda would all come down to the vibes of the GOP conference when they returned.

“You have no idea what the mood is going to be,” Kennedy said.

What else we’re watching: 

— JOHNSON SCRAMBLES LEADERSHIP OUTLOOK:  Republicans are reassessing the dynamics of potential leadership races after Speaker Mike Johnson‘s comments Monday that he would run for minority leader if the GOP loses the House — just days after he floated leaving Congress altogether in that scenario. Many Republicans had predicted Johnson would step aside with a House flip, likely setting off a race between Majority Leader Steve Scalise and Judiciary Chair Jim Jordan for the top GOP spot. If Johnson stays put, his success may depend on the severity of the party’s loss and if Trump weighs in for a certain candidate. “I hope he’s smarter than that,” one House Republican said of Johnson’s consideration of the minority leader role. “It would end very badly and cause unnecessary damage to the conference.”

— DEMS GEAR UP ON TRADE OVERSIGHT — Democrats on the House Ways and Means, Senate Finance and other panels say Trump’s trade deals were corrupt, and they’re already lining up targets to probe. The party knows it can’t repeal Trump’s tariffs as long as he’s in the White House, but if they win control of Congress, they plan to haul in top administration officials and possibly executives to explain how Trump picked his targets in his trade war — and if others got a pass through suspected quid pro quos.

Jordain Carney, Daniel Desrochers and Oliver Ward contributed to this report.

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