The Dictatorship
Federal authorities investigate George Santos for alleged prediction market insider trading
A federal investigation has been launched into former Republican Rep. George Santos over allegations he placed bets on himself on Kalshi, an online prediction market.
Santos’ Kalshi activities were flagged to both the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and to the Department of Justice, a source with knowledge of the matter, who was not authorized to speak publicly, confirmed to MS NOW.
The CFTC is investigating Santos, a source confirmed to MS NOW. The DOJ told MS NOW it is not investigating Santos. NPR, which was first to report this story, reported that both the DOJ and the CTFC had opened investigations into Santos, citing two sources who were not authorized to speak publicly.
In a video posted to X on Feb. 23, one day before President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address, Santos said he would be attending the event and would sit in the gallery rather than on the House floor, where he is permanently barred under House rules because he was expelled from the House in December 2023.
Despite his public RSVP, Santos reportedly placed bets that he would not attend the event. About three hours before Trump was set to deliver his speech, Santos announced he would not attend.
“Watching SOTU from an airport tv was not part of the plan! FML,” Santos posted on X.
Santos reportedly earned a payout from his clairvoyant bet as a result, and those who bet on him attending lost money.
Santos did not reply to a request for comment from MS NOW about the commodity commission’s investigation into his alleged insider trading.
But in a statement shared to X on Wednesday, he said, “My legal team is in contact with the DOJ to see what is going on. I will comment further when appropriate and clarify everything accordingly while being mindful and respectful of any process that might be underway.”
He called the allegations “preposterous” and asked journalists to stop trying to contact him.
Santos, first elected to Congress in 2022 after flipping a Democratic seat in Long Island, was charged in 2023 on federal charges related to wire fraud, money laundering and theft. He pleaded guiltyto wire fraud and aggravated identity theft, was sentenced to 87 months in federal prison and ordered to pay a fine. He began serving his sentence in New Jersey in July 2025.
Trump commuted Santos’ sentence in October, saying the former lawmaker was “horribly mistreated.”
Santos had significant discrepancies in his resume and personal backstory before the election — including falsehoods about his Jewish faith, alma mater and his mother surviving the 9/11 attacks — which were discovered just after he won.
A House Ethics Committee investigationin 2023 also found “substantial evidence” he misused campaign funds for personal reasons, including Botox, a subscription to OnlyFans and other luxury items. The House officially voted to remove Santos from office in December 2023.
Mychael Schnell and Ken Dilanian contributed to this report.
Erum Salam is a breaking news reporter for MS NOW, with a focus on how global events and foreign policy shape U.S. politics. She previously was a breaking news reporter for The Guardian.