Politics

Dems keep beating Republicans on affordability. Our new poll shows why.

Published

7 months ago

December 4, 2025

New polling shows many Americans have begun to blame President Donald Trump for the high costs they’re feeling across virtually every part of their lives — and it’s shifting politics.

Almost half — 46 percent — say the cost of living in the U.S. is the worst they can ever remember it being, a view held by 37 percent of 2024 Trump voters. Americans also say that the affordability crisis is Trump’s responsibility, with 46 percent saying it is his economy now and his administration is responsible for the costs they struggle with.

Those are among the new results from The POLITICO Poll that crystallize a growing warning sign for Republicans ahead of next year’s midterms: Some of the very groups that powered Trump’s victory last year are showing signs of breaking from that coalition, and it’s the high cost of living that’s driving them away.

It’s a growing vulnerability that Democrats exploited repeatedly in recent months, with campaigns focused on affordability sweeping key races in last month’s elections in New Jersey and Virginia and powering an overperformance in a deep-red House seat in Tennessee on Tuesday.

“This is a small warning, but it’s one that Republicans need to understand, is that to hold the House in 2026, it’s going to be an all-hands-on-deck effort,” GOP strategist Ford O’Connell said after the Tennessee election, where Republican Matt Van Epps beat Democrat Aftyn Behn by 9 points, but underperformed against Trump’s 22-point margin in 2024.

One year ago, Trump’s economic message helped him piece together a diverse winning coalition, fueling his return to the White House amid widespread frustration over spiraling inflation.

Then Trump, after campaigning against Joe Biden, inherited the economy he spent months attacking, and both parties were anticipating the moment when voters would begin to turn their blame to the new incumbent.

Almost one year into Trump’s term, that shift is well underway.

The Blue Light News Poll, conducted by Public First, found that despite Trump’s continued support among the Republican base, his softest supporters — the ones the GOP most needs to hold onto next year — are expressing concern.

Republicans were already worried about how they can turn out lower-propensity voters during a midterm cycle when Trump himself is not on the ballot. Now Democrats are also trying to peel away their voters by focusing aggressively on affordability, which remains a top priority for 56 percent of Americans, according to The Blue Light News Poll. As was the case in November, affordability was central to the Tennessee special election, with Behn repeatedly centering her campaign on an affordability pitch.

“Republicans have long had the advantage on dealing with the economy, but if [it] remains in the doldrums and prices remain high, it’s harder to find a good job, they will blame the party in power, and that’s Republicans,” said Arizona-based Republican strategist Barrett Marson.

Republicans’ growing vulnerabilities on the economy represent a stark inversion on an issue that has long defined the GOP, and presents an emerging splintering in Trump’s 2024 winning coalition as his party heads into a high-stakes midterm fight.

Three-quarters of Trump voters say they trust the Republican Party over Democrats to reduce the overall cost of living. But his numbers are far weaker among those who say they voted for him, but do not identify as “MAGA Republicans” — 61 percent, compared to 88 percent of MAGA-aligned voters — pointing to a possible weak spot in his coalition.

Even among Trump voters a meaningful portion — nearly 1 in 5 — say Trump holds full responsibility for the state of the current economy.

The White House disputes that Trump is losing ground on the economy. “Cleaning up Joe Biden’s economic disaster has been a Day One priority for President Trump,” spokesperson Kush Desai said in a statement.

“President Trump is just getting started implementing the policies that created historic economic prosperity in his first term, and Americans can rest assured that the best is yet to come.”

Americans agree that affordability is their top priority, and they hold Trump responsible for addressing it

Across parties, age groups, races, genders and income levels, Americans say the cost of living is the nation’s top problem, The Blue Light News Poll finds, a sign that the economy will again overshadow other political topics in next year’s midterms.

The poll underscores just how pervasive the affordability crisis cuts across Americans’ everyday lives. A 45 percent plurality list grocery costs as the most challenging things to afford, followed by 38 percent who say housing costs and 34 percent who say health care. (Respondents could select multiple responses.)

Forty-three percent of Americans — including 31 percent of Trump voters — say there is less economic opportunity in the U.S. now than there has been in the past.

Other indicators present a similarly bleak view: Consumer sentiment fell in November to one of its lowest levels on record, according to the University of Michigan.

And while Trump frequently points to his predecessor to deflect blame for inflation and high prices, the survey reveals that defense is starting to crack.

More Americans say Trump holds most or all responsibility for the economy (46 percent) than say Biden does (29 percent).

“Voters aren’t going to go, ‘I voted for Trump to better the economy, but Biden just hamstrung [him] too much,’” Marson said. “Voters are going to very quickly forget about Joe Biden and just as quickly turn their ire to Trump unless things get better.”

The survey underscores how Trump is now running into the kinds of economic headwinds that dogged Biden and the Democratic Party during the 2024 campaign.

While inflation rates have fallen from a high of 9.1 percent during the Biden administration to roughly 3 percent last month, voters’ frustration with the cost of living has remained elevated.

Biden repeatedly pointed to job growth to argue the economy was strong, even as prices rose. Now Republicans — who repeatedly hammered Biden over his handling of affordability concerns — are increasingly concerned that Trump is taking a similar tact.

“It’s striking to see President Trump make the same mistake,” said Michael Strain, the director of Economic Policy Studies at the historically conservative-leaning American Enterprise Institute.

Voters say Trump isn’t doing enough, and it’s fracturing his coalition

The survey shows that there is a limit to how long Trump voters are willing to give him to deliver on a core campaign pledge. Already, 1 in 5 say he has had a chance to change the economy but has not taken it, underscoring how an issue that helped Trump form his coalition is now splitting it.

A significant portion of Trump’s voters last year did not come from his base — more than a third, 38 percent, self-identified as not being a “MAGA Republican” in the survey — and those voters are more likely than self-identified MAGA Republicans to hold a pessimistic view of Trump’s handling of the economy.

Among non-MAGA Trump voters, 29 percent say Trump has had a chance to change things in the economy but hasn’t taken it — more than double the 11 percent of MAGA voters who say Trump had not taken his opportunity.

Non-MAGA Republicans were also much more likely than MAGA voters to say the Trump administration is more responsible for the things they find difficult to afford, including grocery costs, utility bills and health care costs.

Democrats are eager to take advantage of the shifting politics of affordability and make the 2026 midterms a referendum on Trump’s economic record — and plan to link GOP candidates up and down the ballot to his policies.

Democrats from New York to Georgia zeroed in on affordability to propel them to victory in last month’s elections, and many party leaders believe it’s a playbook that candidates should follow closely next year.

“House Republicans should 100 percent expect to see ads next year calling them out for their broken promise to lower prices and for supporting Trump’s tariffs,” CJ Warnke, a spokesperson for the Democratic super PAC House Majority PAC, said in a statement.

Republicans, for their part, argue they’re the ones focused on reducing costs. “While Democrats are fighting amongst themselves on who can be the next Zohran Mamdani socialist, Republicans are laser-focused on lowering costs, rebuilding prosperity, and delivering relief for the middle class,” NRCC spokesperson Mike Marinella said in a statement.

Trump allies also say he’s making an affordability pitch, even if voters aren’t yet feeling improvements in their daily lives. But Trump himself has sent mixed messages on the issue.

On Saturday, he posted on Truth Social about drug prices that he claimed are falling so fast Republicans should easily win the midterms, declaring: “I AM THE AFFORDABILITY PRESIDENT.”

Days later, he said “affordability” is a “Democrat scam” and “con job” during a Tuesday Cabinet meeting.

“They just say the word,” he said. “It doesn’t mean anything to anybody. They just say it — affordability. I inherited the worst inflation in history, there was no affordability. Nobody could afford anything.”

Politics

World Cup attendance: The potential 2028ers

Published

18 minutes ago

June 28, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

Gov. Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania has notched a lead in the 2028 World Cup primary, having attended three matches leading into the knockout round — just ahead of Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

In an interview with Blue Light News this week at the FIFA Fan Festival at Fairmount Park’s Lemon Hill, Shapiro reveled in Philadelphia’s host duties — and the World Cup more broadly.

“I’m especially proud to see people from all across the world coming here to Philadelphia and being greeted not just by a governor who’s happy they’re here, but by Philadelphians and Pennsylvanians who are thrilled to see them here,” Shapiro told Blue Light News in an interview. “I think we are better than [President] Donald Trump’s cruel rhetoric. We are better than his cruel policies, and I think we’re seeing that on display here during the World Cup in Philly.”

Here are the potential 2028 presidential hopefuls who have attended a World Cup game so far:

— Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro: 3 matches (Ivory Coast vs. Ecuador; France vs. Iraq; Curaçao vs. Ivory Coast)

— Secretary of State Marco Rubio: 2 matches (U.S. vs. Paraguay; Colombia vs. Portugal)

— California Gov. Gavin Newsom: 1 match (U.S. vs. Paraguay)

— Former Vice President Kamala Harris: 1 match (U.S. vs. Turkey)

— Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: 1 match (U.S. vs. Australia)

— Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis: 1 match (Scotland vs. Brazil)

Politics

‘Héros canadiens’: Carney cheers Canada’s late win

Published

1 hour ago

June 28, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney celebrated his country’s knockout victory over South Africa on Sunday afternoon, posting — in English and in French, of course — that the squad were, “True Canadian heroes,” and adding, “What a game. What a team. What a country.”

Politics

AI regulation group is biggest spender on World Cup TV ads

Published

1 hour ago

June 28, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

Political campaigns and committees spent $740,330 on World Cup advertising during the first two U.S. matches, according to an analysis by AdImpact for Blue Light News.

An artificial intelligence regulation PAC and two political groups allied with Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) emerged among the top spenders on TV ads.

Jobs and Democracy PAC, led by former Reps. Chris Stewart (R-Utah) and Brad Carson (D-Okla.) and aimed at backing Republican and Democratic candidates “committed to defending the public interest against those who aim to buy their way out of sensible AI regulation,” spent $240,000 on ads during the U.S. match against Australia on June 19.

Stronger America, an issue advocacy 501(c)(4) organization aligned with Collins, spent $149,000 across the June 12 and June 19 U.S. matches. And Pine Tree Results PAC, also aligned with Collins, spent $76,000 across both matches.

Republicans view Maine’s Senate race, which pits Collins against Democrat Graham Platner, as “the linchpin” in “this year’s fight for control of the Senate,” they have told donors.

“The first U.S. World Cup game was the most watched soccer broadcast in American history,” a GOP operative working on the Maine Senate race, who was granted anonymity to speak candidly, previously told POLITICO. “Maine markets are performing better than national average and the critical Portland DMA has a significant soccer fan base.”

The American Israel Public Affairs Committee super PAC, United Democracy Project, was another big spender, dropping $58,150 during the first U.S. match.

House Majority Forward, the nonprofit aligned with House Democratic leadership, spent $13,450 during the first match. One Nation, the Senate GOP leadership-aligned group, spent $14,500 across both matches.

A collection of other senatorial and gubernatorial candidates also backed ads throughout the first matches. Businessman Perry Johnson, who is running for Michigan governor, spent $43,270.

“In a Michigan summer when people spend more time outside rather than watching regular programming, you have to go to where there are eyeballs,” John Yob, Johnson’s general consultant, told Blue Light News. “World Cup games have become opportunities for friends to gather and watch outdoor TVs on decks, at the lake, and at outdoor bars across the state.”