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Dems aren’t sure whether to actually spend big to flip Texas

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It didn’t take long for Democrats’ hopes of flipping Texas to dim.

Enthusiasm remains high for the party’s Senate nominee, James Talarico, but national Democrats aren’t sure how far they should go to support him — particularly if Sen. John Cornyn emerges from the GOP runoff in May. Interviews with nearly a dozen high-dollar donor advisers and strategists poured cold water on the likelihood that the party would fully commit to the staggering price tag it’d take to finally flip Texas.

“No one’s taking Texas seriously,” said a Democratic bundler who, like most others, was granted anonymity to speak candidly about intra-party dynamics.

Among their concerns is that Cornyn did better than expected in the GOP primary against Attorney General Ken Paxton, and with President Donald Trump’s potential endorsement would be able to ease his runoff victory. Democrats planning for Talarico to compete against Paxton, a scandal-ridden MAGA darling, are instead facing the prospect of trying to oust a 24-year moderate incumbent in a state that hasn’t voted for a Senate Democrat in nearly four decades.

There are also competing priorities for national spending — just Wednesday evening, Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.) dropped his re-election bid in a state Senate Democrats held as recently as 2018 — potentially elevating it as a target for spending.

Underlying it all, Democrats said, is the reality that contesting Texas would require a massive injection of cash — while there are other, cheaper options on the Senate landscape.

“We have to be practical about how we use our resources,” said Alex Hoffman, a Democratic donor adviser. “You need a perfect storm to kill a white whale, and if it’s going to be Cornyn [in the general election], then it’s not a perfect storm.”

Democrats have long dreamed of turning Texas blue. But the idea of flipping the state — much less retaking the Senate overall — appeared laughable last year, when the party hit new lows in its public polling and sustained sweeping losses in 2024. But a string of overperformances in off-year and special election races, combined with Trump’s own stubbornly low approval rating, have Democrats increasingly bullish about their chances.

“If I’m being super honest, Texas would not be within the reach of our boat here, as fishermen of the white whale, but for the wave moment we’re in,” said Tory Gavito, a Democratic donor who leads the progressive donor network Way To Win.

Tuesday’s results gave them another boost when Talarico, a social media star and prolific grassroots fundraiser, easily dispatched Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Texas). He now has a head start on Republicans, who after already dropping $70 million to lift Cornyn, must continue battling it out for another two and a half months through a runoff — which some are predicting could cost upwards of $100 million.

Texas Democrats see this as the moment to strike. Gavito said Democrats have built to this moment, cycle after cycle. Back in 2014, when President Barack Obama won with a young, multi-racial coalition, Democrats believed it was just a matter of time before they’d eventually flip Texas, a youthful, diverse state.

But Trump, both in 2016 and 2024, whittled down Democrats’ advantages with young, diverse voters, suggesting Texas was further out of reach than they thought. Then-Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-Texas), boosted by more than $80 million, came the closest in 2018, losing to Sen. Ted Cruz by 2.6 percentage points. When former-Rep. Colin Allred tried to oust Cruz in 2024, he lost by 8.5 points.

Gavito said it would be “important” for Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and Senate Majority PAC, Democrats’ top Senate super PAC, to invest in Texas to actually flip it because even though “Talarico has proven he can raise a bunch of non-corporate money … leadership, like Schumer, should see that their job is to be bullish.”

She also argued against Democrats having to pick between investing in Texas or other states — “you can do both things,” she said.

That’s a tall ask in a cycle when Democrats are already struggling mightily in the money race.

House and Senate Republicans entered 2026 with more than double the cash equivalent of their Democratic counterparts. The Republican National Committee has a more than $100 million cash advantage over the Democratic National Committee. Should the Supreme Court lift coordination limits, a looming decision cited by several donor advisers, then they believe Republicans will have an even more lopsided advantage.

“If the goal is to win the House and Senate, then there are other, cheaper, more competitive places,” said a Democratic consultant who works on Senate races. “Do you want to try to get another $150 million for Texas or another $50 million to put Iowa or Montana or Nebraska in play? That’s the Schumer calculation.”

Before Tuesday’s primary, Schumer hadn’t placed Texas in the DSCC’s top tier of battleground races. Instead, North Carolina, Maine, Ohio and Alaska ranked highest in his list of offensive targets. That could change, however, should Paxton ultimately emerge from the runoff.

“If Paxton wins the runoff, the race is on the battleground list,” a person familiar with the DSCC’s thinking said, granted anonymity to describe private conversations. “If Cornyn makes it out, I wouldn’t count it out [either].”

When asked about Texas on Wednesday, Schumer said “Tuesday’s results in Texas are a step forward in our quest to win the Senate,” and called Talarico “a great candidate, and we can win.”

SMP spokesperson Lauren French reiterated that “the majority runs through Ohio, Maine, Iowa, Alaska, and North Carolina … but it can also run through Texas.”

Republicans, for their part, continue to scoff at the idea Texas is competitive. In a statement, NRSC Regional Press Secretary Samantha Cantrell said: “James Talarico thinks ‘God is nonbinary,’ wants to lay a welcome mat on our southern border, and would prioritize the rights of our ‘trans community’, all things Texans will never vote for in November.”

Even if Democrats can’t ultimately flip Texas in November, they believe Talarico’s campaign — and a potentially weakened Cornyn — will force the GOP to spend cash to defend it, turning it into “a money sinkhole for Republicans,” said Cooper Teboe, a Democratic donor adviser and strategist.

“Do we win Ohio by one [percentage point] because of this?” Teboe added.

Some Republican strategists are warning of the possibility.

“In every race, from this point until November, there’s going to be the Texas undertones: You spent $70 million there to protect an incumbent,” a GOP strategist said, granted anonymity to discuss the issue candidly. “I think there is some frustration amongst the consulting class of like, all right, can we focus on Georgia and Michigan, some of these other places a little bit more?”

Erin Doherty contributed to this report. 

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‘A two-edge sword’: Former top ICE official’s campaign roils battleground district

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Republicans in Ohio are worried that a former administration official who helped oversee President Donald Trump’s aggressive immigration tactics could cost them a chance to flip a battleground House district in November.

The GOP has its best chance in years to oust longtime Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur from her Toledo-area seat after the Ohio Legislature redrew her district — which Kaptur won by less than 1 percent in 2024 — to be more favorable for Republicans last year.

But Madison Sheahan, who served as deputy director at Immigration and Customs Enforcement until she resigned to run for Congress earlier this year, has become the center of a contentious primary that GOP operatives in the state say could lead to the party squandering its chance to flip the seat.

At the heart of the concern is Sheahan’s role at ICE, where she helped lead the president’s sweeping immigration raids across the country — a high profile role that could be popular with Trump-friendly primary voters but toxic to a general electorate that has been critical of the immigration crackdown.

“Primary issues that help you win are a two-edge sword. They can help you in the primary, but they might pose challenges in the fall election,” said Ohio GOP strategist Terry Casey, who isn’t affiliated with any campaign in the primary. “There’s obviously [a] debate of what happened in Minnesota and some other things.”

Sheahan worked at ICE amid enforcement operations in major cities that triggered violent confrontations and protests. Those clashes culminated in the killing of two American citizens by immigration officials in Minneapolis. She launched her campaign days after the killing of Renee Good, but before the shooting death of Alex Pretti.

Even as her role as a top immigration official has buoyed her in the primary, her ties to the controversial shootings — which forced the Trump administration to recalibrate its approach on immigration — have opened her up to attacks from primary opponents.

And some Republicans think her record would make her a soft target for Kaptur in a general election battle.

“Republicans have this terrible impression — as I’m out there knocking on doors, ICE does come up a lot, and it’s really divided the country, even some Republicans,” Alea Nadeem, one of her primary challengers, said during an April debate in Toledo.

Sheahan’s campaign did not respond to an interview request but a campaign spokesperson dismissed the criticisms.

“Madison Sheahan’s opponents continue to push false narratives and baseless attacks as last-ditch efforts to save their failing campaigns,” spokesperson Robert Paduchik said. “Attacking her record of executing President Trump’s top priority to defend the homeland is a slap in the face to Ohioans who demanded closed borders and deportations.”

There’s been little public polling ahead of the May 5 primary, and Republicans in Washington are staying out of the primary. But that hasn’t stopped Sheahan from touting her ties to Trump and branding herself as the MAGA candidate in a bid to outflank the field, which includes former state Rep. Derek Merrin, who lost to Kaptur in 2024, state Rep. Josh Williams and Nadeem, an Air Force veteran.

Sheahan’s late entry into the race, months after the rest of the field started campaigning, caught Republicans in northeast Ohio off-guard, including Barbara Orange, the chair of the Lucas County Republican Party. Orange heads the largest GOP chapter in the district and is staying neutral in the primary.

“We were very surprised that she jumped in the race,” Orange said. “I’m not sure really why, but it is her right to do so, and we’ll just have to see how it plays out.”

For most of April, Sheahan was the only candidate running TV spots in the district. One of the ads highlights her role at ICE, including images of the president cut together with images of Sheahan in tactical gear and a voice-over pledging that Sheahan will “put America first.”

But that strategy is facing headwinds as Americans sour on Trump’s handling of immigration. A Blue Light News poll from April found 51 percent of Americans believe Trump’s mass deportation campaigns and his widespread deployment of ICE agents is too aggressive. But the same poll found that 70 percent of Trump voters feel Trump’s immigration policies are either about right or not aggressive enough.

Some of Sheahan’s Republican opponents have attacked her over the issue, even while stressing they remain supportive of Trump’s deportation goals. During that debate, Nadeem said she’s spoken to Republicans in the district who are concerned about ICE agents’ conduct, and called on the agency to conduct “additional training” so that “we can actually have a good message out here for Republicans.”

Williams has tailored his jabs to specifically criticize Sheahan’s role at the agency by suggesting she’s accountable for the Minnesota shootings.

“She left in the middle of a scandal that happened under her watch when she was there,” Williams told The Columbus Dispatch.

During the debate, he blamed the violent protests in Minnesota on the Trump administration’s initial inability to negotiate with state officials to allow ICE to take custody of immigrants in prisons and jails.

“Now the right people are in charge of ICE,” he said, seated feet away from Sheahan. “And we saw 80 county sheriffs in Minnesota sign on to allow us to get them out of the jails.”

Some Republicans in the state say Sheahan’s political career — which has taken place largely outside the Buckeye State — might alienate her from Ohio voters compared to other candidates with deeper roots in the region.

She grew up in Curtice, Ohio, and rowed crew at Ohio State University but worked for three years in Kristi Noem’s gubernatorial office in South Dakota and served a brief stint as head of the Louisiana Department of Wildlife and Fisheries before joining the Trump administration.

“She’s got the weakest links to the district,” said unaffiliated Ohio GOP strategist Bob Clegg.

Orange, the county party chair, questioned whether Sheahan’s experience could translate to serving Ohio but declined to elaborate to maintain her neutrality in the race.

“I know for sure we have two excellent candidates running in Derek Merrin and Josh Williams,” she said. “They’ve lived here their whole lives.”

Paduchik dismissed this criticism, saying “Sheahan and her family lived in this district for decades.”

If Sheahan survives the primary, she may do so bruised by her opponents’ jabs and with a depleted campaign treasury ahead of the general. She reported having $67,000 in the bank in mid-April, according to Federal Election Commission filings, less than Nadeem, Merrin and Williams. But no GOP candidate came close to Kaptur’s $3.1 million in cash on hand.

That war chest could offer Kaptur a chance to capitalize on the attacks on Sheahan’s immigration record, strategists said, a tactic already being employed by her primary opponents.

“I would assume that Marcy will use that as an issue,” Clegg said. “I mean, she could have a big problem with it.”

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