Politics
Dems aren’t sure whether to actually spend big to flip Texas
It didn’t take long for Democrats’ hopes of flipping Texas to dim.
Enthusiasm remains high for the party’s Senate nominee, James Talarico, but national Democrats aren’t sure how far they should go to support him — particularly if Sen. John Cornyn emerges from the GOP runoff in May. Interviews with nearly a dozen high-dollar donor advisers and strategists poured cold water on the likelihood that the party would fully commit to the staggering price tag it’d take to finally flip Texas.
“No one’s taking Texas seriously,” said a Democratic bundler who, like most others, was granted anonymity to speak candidly about intra-party dynamics.
Among their concerns is that Cornyn did better than expected in the GOP primary against Attorney General Ken Paxton, and with President Donald Trump’s potential endorsement would be able to ease his runoff victory. Democrats planning for Talarico to compete against Paxton, a scandal-ridden MAGA darling, are instead facing the prospect of trying to oust a 24-year moderate incumbent in a state that hasn’t voted for a Senate Democrat in nearly four decades.
There are also competing priorities for national spending — just Wednesday evening, Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.) dropped his re-election bid in a state Senate Democrats held as recently as 2018 — potentially elevating it as a target for spending.
Underlying it all, Democrats said, is the reality that contesting Texas would require a massive injection of cash — while there are other, cheaper options on the Senate landscape.
“We have to be practical about how we use our resources,” said Alex Hoffman, a Democratic donor adviser. “You need a perfect storm to kill a white whale, and if it’s going to be Cornyn [in the general election], then it’s not a perfect storm.”
Democrats have long dreamed of turning Texas blue. But the idea of flipping the state — much less retaking the Senate overall — appeared laughable last year, when the party hit new lows in its public polling and sustained sweeping losses in 2024. But a string of overperformances in off-year and special election races, combined with Trump’s own stubbornly low approval rating, have Democrats increasingly bullish about their chances.
“If I’m being super honest, Texas would not be within the reach of our boat here, as fishermen of the white whale, but for the wave moment we’re in,” said Tory Gavito, a Democratic donor who leads the progressive donor network Way To Win.
Tuesday’s results gave them another boost when Talarico, a social media star and prolific grassroots fundraiser, easily dispatched Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Texas). He now has a head start on Republicans, who after already dropping $70 million to lift Cornyn, must continue battling it out for another two and a half months through a runoff — which some are predicting could cost upwards of $100 million.
Texas Democrats see this as the moment to strike. Gavito said Democrats have built to this moment, cycle after cycle. Back in 2014, when President Barack Obama won with a young, multi-racial coalition, Democrats believed it was just a matter of time before they’d eventually flip Texas, a youthful, diverse state.
But Trump, both in 2016 and 2024, whittled down Democrats’ advantages with young, diverse voters, suggesting Texas was further out of reach than they thought. Then-Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-Texas), boosted by more than $80 million, came the closest in 2018, losing to Sen. Ted Cruz by 2.6 percentage points. When former-Rep. Colin Allred tried to oust Cruz in 2024, he lost by 8.5 points.
Gavito said it would be “important” for Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and Senate Majority PAC, Democrats’ top Senate super PAC, to invest in Texas to actually flip it because even though “Talarico has proven he can raise a bunch of non-corporate money … leadership, like Schumer, should see that their job is to be bullish.”
She also argued against Democrats having to pick between investing in Texas or other states — “you can do both things,” she said.
That’s a tall ask in a cycle when Democrats are already struggling mightily in the money race.
House and Senate Republicans entered 2026 with more than double the cash equivalent of their Democratic counterparts. The Republican National Committee has a more than $100 million cash advantage over the Democratic National Committee. Should the Supreme Court lift coordination limits, a looming decision cited by several donor advisers, then they believe Republicans will have an even more lopsided advantage.
“If the goal is to win the House and Senate, then there are other, cheaper, more competitive places,” said a Democratic consultant who works on Senate races. “Do you want to try to get another $150 million for Texas or another $50 million to put Iowa or Montana or Nebraska in play? That’s the Schumer calculation.”
Before Tuesday’s primary, Schumer hadn’t placed Texas in the DSCC’s top tier of battleground races. Instead, North Carolina, Maine, Ohio and Alaska ranked highest in his list of offensive targets. That could change, however, should Paxton ultimately emerge from the runoff.
“If Paxton wins the runoff, the race is on the battleground list,” a person familiar with the DSCC’s thinking said, granted anonymity to describe private conversations. “If Cornyn makes it out, I wouldn’t count it out [either].”
When asked about Texas on Wednesday, Schumer said “Tuesday’s results in Texas are a step forward in our quest to win the Senate,” and called Talarico “a great candidate, and we can win.”
SMP spokesperson Lauren French reiterated that “the majority runs through Ohio, Maine, Iowa, Alaska, and North Carolina … but it can also run through Texas.”
Republicans, for their part, continue to scoff at the idea Texas is competitive. In a statement, NRSC Regional Press Secretary Samantha Cantrell said: “James Talarico thinks ‘God is nonbinary,’ wants to lay a welcome mat on our southern border, and would prioritize the rights of our ‘trans community’, all things Texans will never vote for in November.”
Even if Democrats can’t ultimately flip Texas in November, they believe Talarico’s campaign — and a potentially weakened Cornyn — will force the GOP to spend cash to defend it, turning it into “a money sinkhole for Republicans,” said Cooper Teboe, a Democratic donor adviser and strategist.
“Do we win Ohio by one [percentage point] because of this?” Teboe added.
Some Republican strategists are warning of the possibility.
“In every race, from this point until November, there’s going to be the Texas undertones: You spent $70 million there to protect an incumbent,” a GOP strategist said, granted anonymity to discuss the issue candidly. “I think there is some frustration amongst the consulting class of like, all right, can we focus on Georgia and Michigan, some of these other places a little bit more?”
Erin Doherty contributed to this report.
Politics
The enduring influence of Al Sharpton
PILGRIMAGE: The biggest names in politics are flying in from around the country to meet the Rev. Al Sharpton.
Governors Wes Moore from Maryland and JB Pritzker from Illinois and Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) spoke with him today. Yesterday was Pennsylvania’s Gov. Josh Shapiro. Still up is former Vice President Kamala Harris, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear and Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.).
These potential 2028 presidential hopefuls — in town for the 35th convention of Sharpton’s National Action Network — know that one thing that’s true in New York extends to the whole country.
“If you want to go somewhere in the City of New York, in anything, whatever your profession is, you’ve got to come to the Dr. Rev. Al Sharpton,” Harlem Assemblymember Jordan Wright said.
Sharpton is spending the week basking in that clout. Of course, it wasn’t always this way. Former mayors Ed Koch and Rudy Giuliani viewed him as a chaos agent and enemy. Now, the who’s-who of national and local politics are elbowing their way to see and be seen at his four-day convention.
“They’re showing up because he deserves the respect of everyone in this country,” Gov. Kathy Hochul told Playbook. “He’s been a close adviser a long time. I call him up. And in fact, I spoke to him the day I found out I was going to be governor, watching it on television. I called him up, and he said, ‘I’ll pray for you.’ I got down on my knees, and I prayed myself for wisdom and for justice.”
Sharpton’s influence, for instance, was on full display in New York last year when the field of mayoral candidates trekked to his House of Justice in Harlem — which will soon be relocated — to show deference as they aimed for City Hall. There, Sharpton spoke positively about Andrew Cuomo during the primary and even chided then-mayoral-candidate Zohran Mamdani for not endorsing former Council Speaker Adrienne Adams, a Black woman, in a high enough spot on his ranked-choice ballot.
“Somehow that politics ain’t progressive to me,” Sharpton said nine days before the primary.
Still, Mamdani chose to visit Sharpton at the House of Justice in his first public appearance after his win. That morning, Sharpton took Mamdani’s hand and raised it into the air, as if declaring him the winner by knockout in a boxing match.
Last week, Sharpton raised eyebrows when he told our colleagues in Washington he thinks Harris deserves a second look as a presidential candidate, attempting to thread the needle for Harris the same way he had for Adrienne Adams.
He clarified — and defended — those comments while speaking with us Wednesday night.
“I don’t know if she’s gonna run, but I see her [facing] a lot of sexism and racism,” Sharpton said. “Don’t dismiss her. Let her decide what she’s going to do. She got more votes than any presidential candidate in history, other than Donald Trump. She ought to be acknowledged for that.” — Jason Beeferman
From the Capitol

NOTHING IS OVER: State workers earned $1.6 billion in overtime in 2025, a 22.7 percent increase from the prior year, according to a report released Thursday morning by Comptroller Tom DiNapoli’s office.
The findings come as unions are pressing to expand retirement benefits in the Tier 6 pension category — changes that would cost state and local governments up to $1.5 billion a year.
“State agencies need to carefully monitor overtime to ensure that its use is justified and that state services are provided safely and effectively,” the overtime report found. “The use of overtime can have a substantial impact on long-term pension costs.”
Read more from Blue Light News Pro’s Nick Reisman.
PARTY RAIDS: Progressives in the Hudson Valley seem to have avoided the party raiding that’s been the norm in that corner of the state — but one candidate in Saratoga County is raising eyebrows.
It’s become increasingly common for allies of major party candidates to manipulate minor party nominations. Most prominently, a former Republican won the 2024 Working Families Party’s primary in Rep. Mike Lawler’s district after being supported by people who joined the WFP days before the deadline. That ensured the left would split its vote.
A comparable situation in area congressional or state legislative districts doesn’t appear to exist this year. The only candidate who submitted petitions to challenge Lawler on a minor line was the WFP-backed Democrat Effie Phillips-Staley.
Still, there was a curious registration in the Saratoga-area district held by Democratic Assemblymember Carrie Woerner.
The only candidate who submitted for the WFP line in that district was a Thomas Kenny. Attempts to figure out just who he is weren’t immediately successful — as of January, nobody with that name was registered to vote in that corner of the state. Woerner’s campaign believes he might have been a Conservative until recently, possibly living elsewhere.
There have been some electoral oddities in the county in the past. Dozens of individuals connected to the Saratoga Springs Police Department switched their registration from the Republican or Conservative Parties to the WFP in 2021, forcing a primary against the Democratic supervisor.
Saratoga GOP Chair Joe Suhrada said he didn’t know anything about the Kenny candidacy.
“I don’t know him and I’m not sure who he is,” Suhrada said. He theorized the candidate — unknown to Democrats and the WFP alike — might be a leftist. “There are so many people who decry the Democrats as supposedly not standing up to Trump enough … That could be the case here.” — Bill Mahoney
FROM THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL

CALLING IT QUITS: Just hours before tonight’s Democratic debate to take on Lawler in NY-17, tech executive and local government official Peter Chatzky ended his bid. Chatzky, who loaned himself a whopping $5 million, was set to take the stage with Army veteran Cait Conley, Rockland County Legislator Beth Davidson and Phillips-Staley.
In a statement, Chatzky criticized the “machinery of the Democratic party” and said that if he continued his campaign, “the party establishment and my competitors would need to spend significant effort and money to defeat me, resources that would be better used to defeat Mike Lawler.”
Chatzky had been vying to claim the progressive lane, which Working Families Party-backed Phillips-Staley is also pushing for. Last month, Phillips-Staley was the only candidate to call on Chatzky to drop out after reports of his bawdy online posts emerged. (Chatzky did not mention those incidents in his statement, though he has made the rounds in local media explaining his sense of humor.) Conley and Davidson are taking a more moderate approach to their candidacies.
Chatzky did not immediately endorse an opponent upon dropping out.
That leaves five candidates in the running for the Democratic nomination: Conley, Davidson and Phillips-Staley, along with former TV reporter Mike Sacks and Air Force veteran John Cappello. The latter two were not invited to participate in tonight’s debate and have largely flown under the radar. — Madison Fernandez
HOCHUL DOUBLES DOWN ON NY-21: Hochul isn’t backing down from her bet that Rep. Elise Stefanik’s deep-red seat could actually turn blue.
Speaking with reporters today at an unrelated event, Hochul said she’s spent time listening to New Yorkers of all stripes during her trips to the North Country and thinks Democrats could flip the district.
“Conservative, Republican farmers [are] telling me they are ‘had it’ with the tariffs, they are ‘had it’ with this ICE raids on their farms,” Hochul said. “I heard a lot of anger. I was reflecting on that as a place that people would not expect us to have an opportunity to win, where I believe we do. People are rejecting the policies that are driving up costs and making their lives miserable.”
Hochul told Young Democrats last month that she’s “so optimistic about our chances this year, I believe we can even take Elise Stefanik’s seat.”
Stefanik, who is not seeking reelection, won her seat in a general election by 24 points. Assemblymember Robert Smullen and Sticker Mule CEO Anthony Constantino are running as Republicans to replace her. Democrat Blake Gendebien is running for the seat. — Jason Beeferman
IN OTHER NEWS
— CHILLING EFFECT?: According to the Rent Guidelines Board, landlord costs rose by 5.3 percent over the last year, an increase that could undermine Mamdani’s efforts to freeze rents for the city’s rent-stabilized apartments. (POLITICO Pro)
— FULL-TIME TOTS: Mamdani announces full-day, year-round care for New York City’s 2-K program with the first 2,000 seats opening this fall with extended-hours. (New York Daily News)
— NOT BRAGG, BUT…: Housing groups are pushing for new tenant harassment protections in the state budget that would create criminal penalties for harassing rent-stabilized apartment dwellers. (amNY)
Missed this morning’s New York Playbook? We forgive you. Read it here.
Politics
DNC punts on the big Israel questions
Democrats are, once again, punting on what to do about Israel.
DNC members on Thursday rejected a symbolic resolution to limit the influence of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee and dark-money corporate groups in Democratic primaries — an unsurprising result that is nevertheless a blow to those within the party who have been infuriated by the pro-Israel group’s recent interventions.
They also punted on a pair of sweeping resolutions concerning conflicts in the Middle East that pushed the party to support conditioning military aid to Israel. The measures were referred to the party’s nascent Middle East Working Group, which is meeting for the fourth time this week and has been slow to coalesce around an agenda.
While the resolutions were not expected to pass, the outcomes reflect a party establishment still grappling with how to respond to the increasingly thorny politics around Israel and AIPAC — and their base’s sharp turn away from the longtime U.S. ally.
The AIPAC resolution called for the DNC to condemn “the growing influence of dark money” in Democratic elections, including from the pro-Israel group that has pumped tens of millions of dollars into recent primaries. Several members of the DNC’s resolutions committee said they voted it down because they had passed a resolution earlier in their meeting broadly condemning the influence of dark money in the midterms without calling out individual groups.
Florida Democrat Allison Minnerly, who introduced the AIPAC resolution, argued there’s “merit to calling out different PACs with intention.” She said that “Democrats overwhelmingly want a party that stands for human rights and against increased conflict in the Middle East.”
Politics
Republicans cautious on energy prices despite ceasefire
In the day following President Donald Trump’s announcement of a two-week ceasefire with Iran, dozens of congressional Republicans released statements of support for the administration’s peace negotiations.
But the lawmakers largely steered clear of one major topic: oil.
Crude prices tumbled following Trump’s Tuesday night announcement that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen as part of the ceasefire agreement. It’s what many Republicans were hoping for heading into the midterm elections.
But despite the ceasefire, it’s unclear when international oil shipments will return to normal through the Strait of Hormuz, and there’s alarm about Iran gaining more power over a waterway that carries roughly 20 percent of the world’s oil traffic.
“This is an important step toward ending the conflict, but we need to remain vigilant,” said Sen. John Hoeven (R-N.D.), a member of the Energy and Natural Resources Committee. “We must maintain pressure on Iran to follow through on its commitment to re-open the Strait of Hormuz and agree to a deal that achieves our objectives.”
Indeed, Iran state media reported Wednesday that the country would move to close the strait again if Israel kept bombing targets in Lebanon. The White House said Lebanon was not part of the ceasefire and downplayed the closure threat.
Still, the president has appeared open to Iran keeping some influence over the strait and charging ships for crossing. That’s something causing alarm with industry leaders.
“The supposed negotiating document, in my view, has some troubling aspects, but time will tell. I look forward to the architects of this proposal, the Vice President and others, coming forward to Congress and explaining how a negotiated deal meets our national security objectives in Iran,” Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), long an Iran hawk, wrote on X about initial reports on the ceasefire deal.
Other Republican were less specific in their response. Energy and Natural Resources Chair Mike Lee (R-Utah) wrote on social media that the ceasefire was “excellent news.” But he did not weigh in on the oil price declines Wednesday or lingering concerns about energy markets, and his office did not respond to request for comment.
On the House side, Energy and Commerce Chair Brett Guthrie (R-Ky.) similarly kept his ceasefire comments focused on military objectives, rather than the energy ramifications of the conflict.
“I pray that the end of hostilities will be lasting, that the Iranian regime permanently ends their nuclear ambitions, and stops their spread of terror once and for all,” Guthrie wrote.
Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.), another outspoken Republican on energy issues, took a tone of caution while celebrating the ceasefire agreement. “We have to keep our eyes wide open obviously, it’s not like the Iranian regime is good for keeping its word, but in my mind, this is a pretty good breakthrough,” he said in a statement.
Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.) was one of the only GOP lawmakers to comment about energy and Iran on Wednesday. But rather than calling attention to plummeting oil prices, he instead made an argument for American energy independence.
The president and his allies have been touting their support for more U.S. fossil fuel production as an insurance policy against global disruptions, even though average gasoline prices spiked from $3.25 a year ago to more than $4.
“If the past two months have taught us anything, it’s that we can’t put a price tag on American energy independence and dominance,” Biggs wrote on social media.
Democrats keep up attacks

The ceasefire announcement and drop in oil prices didn’t blunt the Democrats’ campaign that the administration’s war — and other policies — are hurting American consumers.
Minority Leader Chuck Schumer highlighted the continued volatility in the Strait of Hormuz during a press conference Wednesday and said he didn’t expect prices at the pump to ease anytime soon.
“At home here, American families have paid the price for this war. Gas prices have skyrocketed in just a matter of days. They’re not going to change until August. And in general, the world oil markets will be unsettled for years,” Schumer said.
House Energy and Commerce ranking member Frank Pallone (D-N.J.) said, “Even though there’s now a ceasefire, the oil supply chain has unfortunately been disrupted — and may be for a long time.”
Iran’s control over Strait of Hormuz traffic — something it didn’t have before — is also giving Democrats ammunition against the president’s decision to join Israel in attacking Iran.
“A waterway that was free to the world is now a toll booth that Iran controls,” wrote Rep. Mike Levin (D-Calif.) on social media. “Every barrel of oil that gets taxed on the way through raises prices for American families”
Andres Picon contributed to this report.
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