Politics

Democrats pounce in reliably red Iowa, fueled by special election hopium

Published

1 year ago

August 30, 2025

Locked out of power throughout the country, Democrats see ruby-red Iowa as one of their best shots at mounting a conservative state comeback in the upcoming midterms.

And they believe Sen. Joni Ernst’s retirement, made public Friday, is the latest sign that a state President Donald Trump won by double digits presents an offensive opportunity for them next year.

Ernst’s pending exit comes as Iowa Auditor Rob Sand, the only Democrat elected statewide, runs for governor to replace departing Republican Kim Reynolds. Democrats are also enthused about picking off Republicans in Congress in a couple of potentially competitive House races in the Hawkeye State.

And while Iowa presents an uphill climb for Democrats, who have not won a presidential election there since 2012, the party has some cause for optimism: they overperformed in four state legislative special contests this year, including winning in a plus-11 Trump district this week. Democrats are anticipating air cover from their party nationally as they head into an election cycle that will determine whether they can claw back any control in Washington.

“We haven’t, as Democrats, had an organized, coordinated campaign since 2018 and that’s one of the many things that I think is going to happen,” said state Rep. J.D. Scholten, a Democrat who came 3 points from defeating a House Republican in a deep-red district in 2018. He predicted the state’s Senate and gubernatorial candidates would be well-funded, adding, “I think that will go a long ways.”

Catelin Drey, the Democrat whose victory this week broke Republicans’ legislative supermajority, received significant financial support from the state party as the Democratic National Committee deployed its organizing team toward the end of the campaign. From Florida to Pennsylvania, Democrats have outperformed the 2024 presidential ticket in nearly 40 specials across the country this year, but the party has found the most consistent success in Iowa.

The idea that Democrats are going to reclaim any ground in Iowa two years after they lost complete control in Washington — and while they piece their party together amid record-low approval ratings — is difficult to imagine. Many Republicans dismiss it outright. Even some strategists and party officials on the left admit they may be overly hopeful. But Democrats in Iowa think Republicans are vulnerable because they have fumbled both hyper-local and national issues in the state, and believe that anti-Trump sentiment will drag down the GOP.

The prospect of taking back the Midwestern state that was once a top national battleground — one that is home to many working-class and rural voters whom the party has lost to the GOP — is too alluring for Democrats to ignore. Former President Barack Obama won Iowa twice and Democrat Tom Harkin held a Senate seat there from 1985 to 2014.

Perhaps recognizing the state could be an opportunity for the opposing party, the White House privately tried and failed to persuade Ernst to run for reelection.

Democratic leaders said their key to success in the recent special elections has been hammering an affordability message.

“Democrats have really risen. They’re very motivated,” said Rita Hart, chair of the Iowa Democratic Party. “They recognize how important it is that we win some elections here, and that’s why all eyes are now on 2026.”

Despite Hart’s positive assessment, Democrats were clobbered in 2024 and have yet to recover their reputation nationally, leading to endless intra-party debate about the best path forward.

Most Iowa Republicans laughed off the possibility of a blue wave in Iowa. They said they are confident about their odds of hanging onto Ernst’s Senate seat despite losing a proven incumbent. Rep. Ashley Hinson plans to enter the Senate field by the end of September with wide backing among Iowa Republicans.

However, a GOP strategist, granted anonymity in order to speak freely, said Republicans are more worried about Sand’s gubernatorial campaign, which raised $2.25 million in the first 24 hours after its launch, breaking a state record. Republican Rep. Randy Feenstra has formed an exploratory committee, and will likely face a crowded primary field.

“Rob is a proven communicator,” the strategist said. “Rob is just running as ‘I’m not actually a Democrat.’ He’s just different.”

Democrats’ spree of special election wins — starting in January when a Democrat flipped a statehouse seat in a district Trump won by 21 points — has made some Iowa Republicans uneasy. But most GOP operatives maintain that Democrats lack the necessary base of support to pull off a statewide win, and dismiss the results as isolated bursts of energy.

“While that’s a big get for the Democrats here, I just still do not see the type of organizing on the ground or the infrastructure that’s necessarily going to yield widespread statewide results in 2026,” said Tyler Campbell, a Republican strategist in Iowa.

Some in the GOP said there is a deeper dissatisfaction at play in the results.

Republican Woodbury County Supervisor Mark Nelson took to Facebook this week to unload after Drey won her state Senate race, which he said prompted “a lot of questions” and “anger” at GOP officials.

“I don’t think it was about Donald Trump at all,” he said. “I think it was about Kim Reynolds and I think it’s about what the Republicans have done in the Iowa legislature for several years now.”

He cited a state battle over eminent domain, which culminated in June when Reynolds vetoed a bill that would have limited private pipelines’ use of the controversial practice. “The taking of private property for private gain is just wrong. It just is. I’m sorry, governor,” he added.

Democrats cite other issues driving voters to question their allegiance to the GOP, including a lackluster regional economy, a controversial privatized Medicaid system and environmental concerns. Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) said earlier this month that “what we’re seeing is basically a recession economy in Nebraska and Iowa right now.”

Democrats also argue Iowa’s massive expansion of school vouchers under Reynolds has hurt public schools, another issue the party believes helps them with independents and Republicans. Private schools have boomed since the passage of Iowa’s school choice law in 2023 — which allows parents to send children to those institutions using state funds — while more than a dozen public schools have closed.

“The health care issue, the education issue, the water quality issues and eminent domain are kind of like a perfect storm of dissatisfaction right now in Iowa,” said Irene Lin, a Democratic strategist and veteran of races in the state.

She acknowledged Democrats might be fueled by hopium in Iowa, but added, “it’s still worth fighting for because there’s no path to the House or Senate without Iowa going blue.”

Politics

Ted Cruz blasts JD Vance as ‘insecure,’ says he’s focused on helping GOP win midterms

Published

10 hours ago

October 3, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

Sen. Ted Cruz fired back at JD Vance for suggesting he’s already focused on a 2028 presidential bid, calling the vice president “insecure” while insisting he’s focused on the 2026 midterms.

“In my experience, people engage in political bomb-throwing when they’re feeling insecure,” Cruz said in a phone interview Saturday. “So he’s welcome to make whatever comments he likes. I’m going to keep focusing on the midterms and helping us win on Election Day in the next 30 days.”

Cruz’s comments came in response to an NBC News interview Thursday with Vance in which the vice president suggested Cruz was prematurely eyeing a White House run.

“It is really obvious to me that, at this very moment, Ted Cruz is running for president,” Vance said. “At this moment, I’m not. I’m trying to help elect Republicans. That’s what I’m going to keep on doing.”

Vance is widely viewed as the frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination, but Cruz has said he doesn’t believe Vance is the sure-fire nominee and suggested he might throw his own hat in the ring. “I’ll certainly be part of the discussion,” he told MS NOW in August.

On Saturday, Cruz told Blue Light News he is dedicated to helping Republicans maintain control of both chambers of Congress. He pointed to his travel this cycle to campaign with candidates in Georgia, Iowa, Nebraska, South Carolina as well as in his home state of Texas as proof. He also said he has trips planned this month to campaign with Republicans in Alaska, Florida, North Carolina and South Carolina.

“Over the last 10 years, there’s no Republican in the country who has campaigned for more Senate candidates, more House candidates, more gubernatorial candidates than I have, and this year will be no exception,” he said.

Cruz rattled off a list of a dozen GOP candidates he’s helped bolster in past years, including former Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin, Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina, U.S. House candidate Karoline Leavitt — and the vice president.

“Indeed, ironically, I spent a full day on the road with JD Vance, campaigning with him when he was running for Senate in Ohio [in 2022],” Cruz said. “I was very glad he won that race. I was very glad to help him.”

A spokesperson for Vance did not immediately respond to Cruz’s latest comments.

Vance campaigned in Texas and Florida this week and will hold a rally in Alaska on Monday.

Politics

Republicans don’t have a clear boogeyman for this year’s midterms

Published

10 hours ago

October 3, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

Republicans have tried to find a new boogeyman this year as they rail against Democratic socialism and the “radical” left: Zohran Mamdani. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Bernie Sanders.

Still more mentioned than all of them, at least in campaign ads: former President Joe Biden.

A Blue Light News review of hundreds of ads running in battleground House and Senate races in recent months shows Republicans largely haven’t seized on progressive icons in paid media. Instead, Biden is the Democrat most likely to be mentioned in GOP ads this cycle, coming up across dozens of races.

President Donald Trump has frequently sought to blame Biden for high prices and other challenges that his administration has faced. Even so, the former president has become a far less useful punching bag for Republicans since leaving office and remaining largely out of the spotlight: At this time in the 2024 cycle, Biden had been mentioned in more than 1,000 Republican House and Senate ads, according to AdImpact data.

The data illustrates how Republicans have been unable to land on a clear villain as they seek to convince voters that Democratic control of Congress would be worse than keeping the GOP in charge. Their warnings about old establishment figures like Biden and former Speaker Nancy Pelosi don’t land like they once did. But they also haven’t been able to seize on emerging democratic socialists like they had hoped to.

Democrats’ foil, meanwhile, has never been more obvious, with Trump’s approval rating in the mid-thirties amid continued high prices and the Iran war.

“No one will match the level of Pelosi for Republicans, in part because the Obamacare vote was such a touchstone moment. And the ‘we have to pass it to find out what’s in it,’” said Doug Heye, a longtime Republican operative who noted he still has “Fire Pelosi” swag from the Republicans’ successful 2010 midterm rout. The then-speaker was central to the GOP’s campaign message that year.

Part of the challenge for Republicans comes from Democrats’ lack of a clear leader. Pelosi stepped down from Democratic leadership at the start of 2023, and her successor, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) does not elicit the same animus from Republicans. In the 2022 cycle, her last term as Democratic leader, Pelosi was invoked in more than 80 GOP ads, Blue Light News’s analysis found. Now, she’s mentioned just a handful of times, while Jeffries hasn’t been mentioned in any battleground TV ads this year, according to the Blue Light News review of transcripts.

Biden was an easy target for the GOP in 2022 and 2024, when Republicans blamed him for high inflation and the cost of living. Now, poll after poll shows that voters are more likely to hold Trump — not Biden — responsible for the current state of the U.S. economy, even as Trump tries to redirect the blame.

Even Kamala Harris, the most recent Democratic standard-bearer as their 2024 nominee, is named less often in paid media this cycle than Biden. And among other potential future Democratic presidential candidates, only California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Ocasio-Cortez appear as Republican foils — and not as often as Harris or Biden.

Ocasio-Cortez is often mentioned by Republicans in the same sentence as Sanders, especially when the GOP seeks to tie Democrats in battleground races to the party’s progressive wing. In Michigan’s hotly contested Senate race, former public health official Abdul El-Sayed was endorsed by both — something his opponent Mike Rogers and GOP outside groups have seized on.

“El Sayed is endorsed by extreme liberals like AOC, Elizabeth Warren, and Bernie Sanders,” one recent ad from the conservative super PAC Sentinel Action Fund says.

Some Republicans have sought to run against the progressives even when there are no such ties: One ad that ran earlier this year from Texas Gov. Greg Abbott and the state’s GOP comptroller promised to stand up to Ocasio-Cortez, Sanders and the “new radical left.” Neither Sanders nor Ocasio-Cortez have endorsed in either race.

Most often, the GOP has run ads seeking to tie Democratic candidates to socialism or communism — the concepts themselves — in dozens of House battleground races and nearly every major Senate race. Just this week, the Trump administration launched a national $20 million DHS-funded campaign-style ad spree that features Trump lambasting “communism, socialism, and Marxism.”

But when it comes to specific political figures — like Mamdani, New York City’s mayor — it gets complicated. Republicans once salivated at the prospect of Mamdani as a foil when he was first elected last year. But his first year in office has largely boosted his standing with voters, complicating efforts to turn his tenure into a negative for Democrats.

Trump’s surprising continued embrace of the New York City mayor — just last week, the president stood by Mamdani and said he hoped he would “be a great mayor” — has further complicated GOP efforts to paint him as a villain.

In a handful of swingy New York congressional districts, Republicans have still attempted to tie their opponents to Mamdani, while Democrats have pushed back on the connection. In New York’s 21st District, which Trump won by more than 20 points two years ago, Democratic dairy farmer Blake Gendebien ran an ad arguing that his Republican opponent wants voters to think he’s “running against Zohran Mamdani” but “that’s a load of bull.”

The GOP has characterized prominent Democrats as socialist for decades. As progressives won a series of contested primaries this year, some Democrats worried the rise of figures with ties to the Democratic Socialists of America would give Republicans easy ammunition for the general election.

But being called a “socialist” may not have the same shock value it once did.

“I don’t think just calling a candidate ‘socialist’ works that well for Republicans, particularly this late in the game,” said Matt Towery, a longtime GOP pollster. “If a candidate focuses on parts of the DSA’s platform and can authentically pin it on their opponent, that might work. But Republicans just assume people have a bad reaction to the term socialist, and the term doesn’t elicit the same reaction it used to.”

Politics

‘A slow-moving car crash:’ Republicans are wary of the $200 million-plus price tag to save Ken Paxton

Published

16 hours ago

October 3, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

Republicans know they have to spend big to save Ken Paxton. They’re increasingly worried MAGA Inc. won’t throw down in time.

In private conversations over recent weeks, senior Hill Republicans and GOP officials have nudged President Donald Trump’s team to start spending more on the Texas Senate race before it’s too late, according to three people with direct knowledge of those conversations, who were granted anonymity to discuss them.

Those fears escalated after audio leaked of Paxton privately trashing Trump’s midterm convention, with some worrying it could impact whether MAGA Inc. continues spending after a current wave of GOP ad bookings run out Oct. 12.

A Trump operative told Blue Light News that MAGA Inc. and its affiliates are expected to spend near $45 million on direct mail, TV, and digital advertising in Texas through Oct. 12, an increase from its previous $20 million to boost Paxton. But they said the team is still assessing how much more money to send in the final weeks, in consultation with Senate Republicans and their top super PAC, the Senate Leadership Fund.

The Trump operative, who like others in this article was granted anonymity to speak candidly, would not commit to any plans when asked by Blue Light News.

With national Democrats starting to finally spend for their Senate nominee, James Talarico, after months of holding off, and as polling of the race tightens, Republicans expect the cost of salvaging Paxton’s campaign will only skyrocket. And, they’ve started to panic.

“It’s a five-alarm fire, no doubt,” one GOP senator said. “Can we put it out? I hope so.”

“This is a slow-moving car crash that we’re witnessing right now,” a Republican strategist in the state said. “And there’s a 75% chance that the ultimate result here will be catastrophic from a GOP Senate majority standpoint.”

A fourth Republican, a national operative, spoke to the urgency factor: “While it’s money we shouldn’t have needed to spend, it needs to be spent now,” said a national GOP operative, describing the state as more winnable than North Carolina, Georgia and potentially Ohio.

Even with a massive war chest, Texas is turning into a huge money sink for the GOP that senators worry could hurt them in other tight races as they work to defend deep-red states and try to flip blue seats in Michigan and New Hampshire.

Trump himself nodded to some of the concerns at a rally just across the Texas border in Oklahoma Thursday night, saying those voters aren’t the ones he’s concerned about.

“We’re worried about Michigan. We’re worried about Texas,” he told the crowd. “We’re worried about a few states.”The president is scheduled to visit Texas again next week for a rally in San Antonio next Wednesday.

SLF poured another $60 million into Texas on Wednesday, bringing its total expenditure there to a record-breaking $131 million. With the MAGA Inc. money and additional GOP ad reservations, the race is already on track to top $200 million from outside Republican groups hoping to save Paxton. Paxton’s own campaign recently announced a $20 million ad buy — one of the largest single media investments in a Texas Senate race.

Some Republicans want MAGA Inc. to take over spending for Paxton in Texas in the final few weeks, so SLF can focus its resources elsewhere. MAGA Inc. could also funnel money into SLF’s recently established Texas PAC. But, according to two people with direct knowledge of that matter, that hasn’t happened.

“At some point I think the people spending that money are going to have to make hard choices and figure out where the money can have the biggest impact, and certainly Texas is the most expensive,” Sen. John Cornyn, who lost to Trump-backed Paxton in the primary, recently told POLITICO.

SLF Executive Director Alex Latcham indicated to Blue Light News the group will keep spending in Texas: “Senate Leadership Fund’s investment through Texas PAC affirms our commitment to maintaining the Republican majority and defeating Far-Left liberals like James Talarico.”

But Republicans’ money concerns have been complicated by Paxton himself. A growing number of GOP senators and top operatives have been stunned by what they described as unforced errors by the Texas Senate nominee. For example, he crossed one of the brightest red lines with Trump, telling a group of donors that “everybody’s numbers dropped” after the president’s GOP convention in Dallas last month, according to the audio leak reported by The New York Times.

“There seems to be very little strategy there,” said another Republican senator, granted anonymity to candidly discuss the race. “Sometimes, I think [Paxton] wants to lose.”

The White House did not respond to a request for comment.

Trump, while on his way to Texas to tour a motor facility on Thursday, told reporters he hadn’t talked to Paxton about his convention comments. Later, he told a crowd in Texas that “Ken Paxton was at my side more than anybody, and I have to always remember that because he can be a pain in the ass sometimes. I’ll be honest.”

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) told reporters this week that he hadn’t seen the audio of Paxton trashing Trump’s convention. He acknowledged the stakes in his home state were high — and that the influx of cash is key.

“The reason that it is a serious race and a close race right now is that for several months the Democrats were massively outspending us,” he said, “and I am glad now that we are seeing money invested in communicating with the voters.”

The White House has attempted to reassure concerned senators, with chief of staff Susie Wiles telling Senate Republicans this week that there will be enough money available for competitive races in the final stretch, according to two people with knowledge of the meeting.

GOP operatives in both Michigan and New Hampshire said they feel that some of the cash being shoveled toward Texas should be going to their states instead. Most polls show Republicans running narrowly behind or neck and neck in both states, even though they hold a spending advantage on the airwaves there.

“We’re focusing so much on ‘we’ve got to put this money into Texas.’ Why? We’ve never had a problem in Texas. Let’s focus on taking back a seat we haven’t had in years,” said an ally of former Sen. John E. Sununu, who’s in a tight race against Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas. “There are real chances in Michigan and New Hampshire,” said the person, who was granted anonymity to speak candidly about the dynamics.

Sununu’s campaign did not respond to a request for comment.

Latcham, who heads SLF, said that “Texas PAC is a dedicated effort that will not take resources from our other ongoing investments across the Senate map.”

Recent polling still shows the Texas Senate race with a razor-thin margin. Most public polling over the past two months shows Talarico with an edge, though Paxton’s campaign released an internal poll Tuesday that shows Paxton leading by three points among likely voters, 48% to 45%.

“I don’t think the needle has moved in the last month,” said one Texas Republican elected official, granted anonymity to speak frankly. “Unless it’s the worst polling that’s ever been done in political history, all this spend hasn’t changed anything, and I think people have made their mind up.”

Lisa Kashinsky, Samuel Benson, Alex Gangitano and Kelsey Brugger contributed to this report.