Politics
Democrats pounce in reliably red Iowa, fueled by special election hopium
Locked out of power throughout the country, Democrats see ruby-red Iowa as one of their best shots at mounting a conservative state comeback in the upcoming midterms.
And they believe Sen. Joni Ernst’s retirement, made public Friday, is the latest sign that a state President Donald Trump won by double digits presents an offensive opportunity for them next year.
Ernst’s pending exit comes as Iowa Auditor Rob Sand, the only Democrat elected statewide, runs for governor to replace departing Republican Kim Reynolds. Democrats are also enthused about picking off Republicans in Congress in a couple of potentially competitive House races in the Hawkeye State.
And while Iowa presents an uphill climb for Democrats, who have not won a presidential election there since 2012, the party has some cause for optimism: they overperformed in four state legislative special contests this year, including winning in a plus-11 Trump district this week. Democrats are anticipating air cover from their party nationally as they head into an election cycle that will determine whether they can claw back any control in Washington.
“We haven’t, as Democrats, had an organized, coordinated campaign since 2018 and that’s one of the many things that I think is going to happen,” said state Rep. J.D. Scholten, a Democrat who came 3 points from defeating a House Republican in a deep-red district in 2018. He predicted the state’s Senate and gubernatorial candidates would be well-funded, adding, “I think that will go a long ways.”
Catelin Drey, the Democrat whose victory this week broke Republicans’ legislative supermajority, received significant financial support from the state party as the Democratic National Committee deployed its organizing team toward the end of the campaign. From Florida to Pennsylvania, Democrats have outperformed the 2024 presidential ticket in nearly 40 specials across the country this year, but the party has found the most consistent success in Iowa.
The idea that Democrats are going to reclaim any ground in Iowa two years after they lost complete control in Washington — and while they piece their party together amid record-low approval ratings — is difficult to imagine. Many Republicans dismiss it outright. Even some strategists and party officials on the left admit they may be overly hopeful. But Democrats in Iowa think Republicans are vulnerable because they have fumbled both hyper-local and national issues in the state, and believe that anti-Trump sentiment will drag down the GOP.
The prospect of taking back the Midwestern state that was once a top national battleground — one that is home to many working-class and rural voters whom the party has lost to the GOP — is too alluring for Democrats to ignore. Former President Barack Obama won Iowa twice and Democrat Tom Harkin held a Senate seat there from 1985 to 2014.
Perhaps recognizing the state could be an opportunity for the opposing party, the White House privately tried and failed to persuade Ernst to run for reelection.
Democratic leaders said their key to success in the recent special elections has been hammering an affordability message.
“Democrats have really risen. They’re very motivated,” said Rita Hart, chair of the Iowa Democratic Party. “They recognize how important it is that we win some elections here, and that’s why all eyes are now on 2026.”
Despite Hart’s positive assessment, Democrats were clobbered in 2024 and have yet to recover their reputation nationally, leading to endless intra-party debate about the best path forward.
Most Iowa Republicans laughed off the possibility of a blue wave in Iowa. They said they are confident about their odds of hanging onto Ernst’s Senate seat despite losing a proven incumbent. Rep. Ashley Hinson plans to enter the Senate field by the end of September with wide backing among Iowa Republicans.
However, a GOP strategist, granted anonymity in order to speak freely, said Republicans are more worried about Sand’s gubernatorial campaign, which raised $2.25 million in the first 24 hours after its launch, breaking a state record. Republican Rep. Randy Feenstra has formed an exploratory committee, and will likely face a crowded primary field.
“Rob is a proven communicator,” the strategist said. “Rob is just running as ‘I’m not actually a Democrat.’ He’s just different.”
Democrats’ spree of special election wins — starting in January when a Democrat flipped a statehouse seat in a district Trump won by 21 points — has made some Iowa Republicans uneasy. But most GOP operatives maintain that Democrats lack the necessary base of support to pull off a statewide win, and dismiss the results as isolated bursts of energy.
“While that’s a big get for the Democrats here, I just still do not see the type of organizing on the ground or the infrastructure that’s necessarily going to yield widespread statewide results in 2026,” said Tyler Campbell, a Republican strategist in Iowa.
Some in the GOP said there is a deeper dissatisfaction at play in the results.
Republican Woodbury County Supervisor Mark Nelson took to Facebook this week to unload after Drey won her state Senate race, which he said prompted “a lot of questions” and “anger” at GOP officials.
“I don’t think it was about Donald Trump at all,” he said. “I think it was about Kim Reynolds and I think it’s about what the Republicans have done in the Iowa legislature for several years now.”
He cited a state battle over eminent domain, which culminated in June when Reynolds vetoed a bill that would have limited private pipelines’ use of the controversial practice. “The taking of private property for private gain is just wrong. It just is. I’m sorry, governor,” he added.
Democrats cite other issues driving voters to question their allegiance to the GOP, including a lackluster regional economy, a controversial privatized Medicaid system and environmental concerns. Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) said earlier this month that “what we’re seeing is basically a recession economy in Nebraska and Iowa right now.”
Democrats also argue Iowa’s massive expansion of school vouchers under Reynolds has hurt public schools, another issue the party believes helps them with independents and Republicans. Private schools have boomed since the passage of Iowa’s school choice law in 2023 — which allows parents to send children to those institutions using state funds — while more than a dozen public schools have closed.
“The health care issue, the education issue, the water quality issues and eminent domain are kind of like a perfect storm of dissatisfaction right now in Iowa,” said Irene Lin, a Democratic strategist and veteran of races in the state.
She acknowledged Democrats might be fueled by hopium in Iowa, but added, “it’s still worth fighting for because there’s no path to the House or Senate without Iowa going blue.”
Politics
They once called him a ‘goose-stepping extremist.’ They’re now sitting out his comeback bid.
When Brandon Herrera ran for Congress in 2024, the Republican Jewish Coalition called him “a goose-stepping extremist” and spent big to take him down. Two years later, he’s the presumptive GOP nominee — and his former foes are staying home as the GOP establishment moves to embrace him.
Herrera, a gun shop owner and popular YouTuber known as “The AKGuy” running in Texas’ 23rd Congressional District, has faced widespread criticism for past videos in which he mimics a Nazi march to Nazi music, jokes about the Holocaust and boasts about his 1939 edition of “Mein Kampf.” His 2024 opponent, Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-Texas) called him a “known neo-Nazi,” a characterization Herrera disputes. Concern over Herrera’s comments were so severe that the American Israel Public Affairs Committee’s United Democracy Project spent more than $1 million two years ago and the Republican Jewish Coalition spent close to $400,000 to sink his campaign.
But now, a scandal forced Gonzales to drop out of the runoff, and Herrera is the GOP nominee in the sprawling, GOP-leaning Texas border district, which President Donald Trump carried by a 17-point margin in 2024.
And faced with the choice of a candidate they’ve long accused of antisemitism and a Democrat, these pro-Israel and Jewish groups are thus far choosing to sit on their hands.
AIPAC, which backs both Democratic and Republican pro-Israel candidates and usually focuses its efforts in primaries, has not endorsed in the race. AIPAC spokesperson Deryn Sousa said in a statement only that the group would “continue to assess where candidates across the country stand on issues that affect the U.S.-Israel partnership.”
And the RJC, which only supports Republican candidates, won’t get involved. “The RJC has a longstanding policy of speaking out against those who traffic in Nazi ideology, and this is another case,” said RJC political director and spokesperson Sam Markstein. “The RJC opposed Mr. Herrera in 2024, and he will not get our support now.”
But Markstein made clear it was likely they would sit the race out rather than oppose him in the general election. “We’ve never supported a Democrat, so that should tell you everything you need to know,” he said.
In the weeks since Herrera finished as the top vote-getter in Texas’ March 4 primary and Gonzales dropped out, the GOP establishment has largely embraced Herrera.
Last week, as lawmakers and donors socialized during a glitzy Mar-a-Lago fundraiser for the House Freedom Caucus, which backed him in the primary, Herrera made a triumphant appearance, according to an attendee granted anonymity to detail a private event and another attendee’s post on social media. Trump announced his endorsement on social media the same night.
“Brandon is strongly supported by many Highly Respected MAGA Warriors in Texas, and Republicans in the US House,” Trump wrote. “HE WILL NEVER LET YOU DOWN!”
Speaker Mike Johnson and House GOP leadership followed a week later, calling him an “America First grassroots leader” in a joint statement Thursday.
Trump’s endorsement brings “a little bit of comfort” to pro-Israel GOP donors who view Trump as a loyal ally, said Gabriel Groisman, a Florida-based GOP donor active in pro-Israel circles. “We trust the president and his team in their vetting of congressional candidates,” Groisman said. “But it doesn’t mean we don’t ask questions and we don’t dig further.”And Groisman said that the “ugly truth about politics” is Jewish Republican donors are now faced with the option of him or a Democrat, rather than another Republican. “So the question is whether it’s better to have him in [office], or not. That’s a very, very difficult question to answer.”
Herrera criticized AIPAC’s spending against him in 2024, calling it “Israel first bullshit.” “I’m not anti-Israel, I’m anti Israel buying American elections,” he wrote on social media.
He has also been critical of U.S. policy toward Israel, arguing American taxpayers should not have to pay for military aid to Israel. We shouldn’t be spending a cent of taxpayer dollars on anything that is not either an investment or right here in the United States,” he said in a speech, Israel National News reported. “I don’t hate my neighbor just because I don’t want to pay his power bill. If they want to buy rockets from us, let’s sell to them.”
Republicans’ embrace of Herrera shows how seriously the GOP values maintaining control of the House this cycle, even as some Republicans warn of growing antisemitism within their own ranks.
Herrera’s campaign has continued to publicly push back on criticisms of his social media history, which they contend are taken out of context from his “work as a historical firearms educator” and omitting extended clips that include “comments ridiculing and condemning Hitler’s book.”
“The accusations against Brandon were bizarre and false, manufactured by a desperate political opponent who misleadingly cut and pasted together disparate video clips,” Herrera campaign manager Kimmie Gonzalez said in a statement.
Groisman, the Florida-based donor, said Herrera’s allies are working to assuage concerns about his past statements through outreach to Jewish and pro-Israel donors in Texas and beyond.
“They’re trying to send them what he has actually said, versus what people say he said, which they seem to claim that there’s a big delta there,” Groisman said. “The concern is, are we, as a Republican Party, allowing in another potential Thomas Massie-type figure? Nobody knows the answer to that question.” Massie, a Republican member of the House from Kentucky, has been an outspoken critic of Trump and Israel.
Herrera’s campaign confirmed he is looking for dialogue with those same groups that have attacked him for years — including the RJC.
Katie Padilla Stout, the Democratic nominee in the district, has said that Herrera has “consistently been on the wrong side of history,” citing content from his YouTube videos that mocked veterans and another video in which he tested Nazi weaponry. Padilla Stout has started to make allegations of antisemitism core to her attacks on her Republican opponent, as outside Democratic groups — like the House Majority PAC — use his past videos as attacks.
“Given his documented history of apparent anti-semitism, it’s no surprise our campaign has received an outpouring of support from people from all across the district and from both sides of the aisle, including support from the Jewish community,” Padilla Stout’s campaign manager, Yolitzma Aguirre, said in a statement.
Some of the Republican officeholders who have warned loudly about growing antisemitism within their party dodged when asked about Herrera.
Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) has vowed to take on any Republican congressional candidate who espoused antisemitism, but when asked about Herrera said “I don’t know what you’re talking about, in terms of what he said.”
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), who denounced podcaster Nick Fuentes as a “goose-stepping Nazi” during a speech last week, has stayed out of the primary, even as he endorsed in other U.S. House races in his state. He said questions about Herrera’s statements or actions should be directed to Herrera himself.
“I haven’t seen the video you’re discussing, and so you’re welcome to ask him those questions,” Cruz said in a brief interview last week.
When asked how he would advise Texas voters to cast their ballot in Herrera’s race, Cruz refused to answer. “Those are the exact same questions a Democrat tracker would ask,” Cruz said before walking away. His office declined to elaborate on his answers.
While Republicans circle the wagons or duck the topic, a Jewish Democratic group that rarely plays in districts like this is thinking about investing in trying to defeat Herrera.
The Jewish Democratic Council of America is considering getting involved in the heavily Republican district, which would deviate from their norm of engaging only in districts with significant Jewish voter populations.
“If there was ever a chance that a Democrat could win a seat like this, maybe it’s in these midterms,” said JDCA president Hailie Soifer. “So it is something we’re looking at. Certainly it is a priority for us to defeat Trump-endorsed neo-Nazis, like this candidate.”
Politics
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