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Democrats’ path back to power is littered with primaries

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Democrats are charting a path back to power in the House as Republicans falter heading into the midterms. But first they have to contend with more than a dozen primaries across the country that are exposing deep ideological divisions within their ranks.

Democrats will undergo grueling intraparty battles across the country, from purple seats with retiring incumbents to battleground districts where they hope to go on offense to safe blue seats where the primary will all but decide the eventual winner. In one case, interest groups are squaring off against each other in a central California district amplifying party divides.

Animating these races are factional, ideological and demographic divides that have been brewing for years in a party that’s become more of a vehicle for opposition than one with a proactive message. Now the splits are peaking just as Democrats, buoyed by this month’s off-cycle election sweep, feel more optimistic about regaining control over the House, which would require a net gain of three seats. They also see a path — albeit much steeper — to retake the Senate.

Republicans — who have a long history of intense House primaries — face a far more relaxed environment next year, allowing their candidates to stockpile cash while hotly contested Democratic races consume valuable resources.

Democrats have long been grappling with a younger faction hankering to take on the establishment that is pushing policies and tactics that agitate mainstream politicians who believe their methods will yield general election victories. And the generational divides opened by Joe Biden’s decision to step off the presidential ticket in the face of immense internal pressure last year still ripple throughout the party.

Some Democrats are already growing concerned about the number of primaries their party is contending with.

“The beauty of a democracy is that anyone can run. But sometimes the disaster of a democracy is, they do,” said Rep. Mike Thompson, who faces a primary from a younger Democrat for his California seat. “We need to be focused. We need to be making sure that we’re looking at taking back the majority, not fighting amongst ourselves.”

Some Democrats say the growing enthusiasm among newcomers to run for office signals a positive future for the party as it continues to grapple with its vast losses last year.

“No matter the primary dynamic, Democrats are united in our common mission to get a Congress that stops catering to the billionaires, and instead focuses on the needs of hardworking families struggling to get by under Republican rule,” Viet Shelton, spokesperson for House Democrats’ campaign arm, said in a statement.

Others believe that contested primaries will help rebuild the party’s frayed relationship with its voters.  

“We have a trust problem,” said Rep. Becca Balint (D-Vt.). “We have to make the case to people that we are not just fighting for them for the sake of fighting, but we’re fighting for them because we have the empathy to understand the real day-to-day struggles.”

Here’s a look at some of the hottest primaries unfolding around the country:

The open seats 

Arizona’s 1st District was a top target for Democrats even before Republican incumbent David Schweikert decided to run for governor. Now a pair of repeat candidates are splitting groups that spend heavily in primaries.

Marlene Galan-Woods has the backing of EMILYs List and BOLD PAC, the Congressional Hispanic Caucus’ campaign arm, while Amish Shah has support from AAPI Victory Fund and ASPIRE PAC, which both support Asian-American candidates. Democratic groups continue to recruit more candidates for the race, according to two people granted anonymity to discuss private plans.

A similar dynamic is playing out in Nebraska’s blue-leaning 2nd District, where GOP Rep. Don Bacon has decided not to run for reelection. BOLD PAC and EMILYs List have lined up behind Denise Powell, while the Congressional Progressive Caucus is with state Sen. John Cavanaugh for the Omaha seat.

The mudslinging has begun between the opposing camps, with some corners of the party privately expressing concerns about Cavanaugh’s fundraising and that his voting record and fundraising could make him vulnerable to GOP attacks in a general election.

After Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine) abruptly retired earlier this month, Democrats have been quickly forced to regroup in a district President Donald Trump carried by 9 points last year.

Former Gov. Paul LePage has staved off any serious primary on the Republican side, while Democrats are contending with a fight between one-time Golden challenger Matt Dunlap and former Senate candidate Jordan Wood, who switched to the open district following Golden’s announcement.

Democrats in the area are still recruiting, but it’s an uphill fight. One gubernatorial candidate, former state Senate President Troy Jackson had expressed interest in a bid but ultimately decided against it. Penobscot Nation Chief Kirk Francis is also considering a run, according to an ally, but Francis has not spoken publicly about the race.

Whoever enters the race needs to act quickly. Wood has carried over cash from his well-funded Senate bid, and Dunlap has a head start over others in the progressive lane thinking about jumping in.

The pickup opportunities 

Democrats angling to pick off Rep. Ryan Mackenzie in Pennsylvania’s 7th District are working against each other in a messy five-way primary. The Lehigh Valley seat has flipped between parties four times in the past two decades and was one of the closest House races in the country last year when Mackenzie won it for the GOP.

Firefighter union head Bob Brooks has earned a raft of endorsements from across the party spectrum — from progressives like Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Rep. Chris Deluzio (D-Pa.) to Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. Austin Davis and a host of unions. Carol Obando-Derstine has the backing of the district’s last Democratic representative, moderate Susan Wild, whom Mackenzie unseated in 2024, as well as EMILYs List and BOLD PAC.

They’ve both been outraised by Ryan Crosswell, a former Republican who resigned from the Department of Justice following Trump’s demand that the agency drop its corruption case against New York City Mayor Eric Adams. He’s drawn support from VoteVets and New Politics, which back veterans running for office.

Gov. Josh Shapiro could tip the scales — the popular Democratic governor is expected to follow Davis in backing Brooks.

Democrats also face a primary headache in California’s San Joaquin Valley for the seat held by GOP Rep. David Valadao. The seat became bluer under the state’s new voter-approved map, but it has still swung between the parties in recent years. Visalia school board trustee Randy Villegas has backing from the party’s left wing, including from Sanders, the Progressive Caucus PAC and BOLD PAC. But Assemblywoman Jasmeet Bains has rolled out a large slate of endorsements from sitting state and federal lawmakers as well as organized labor and groups like EMILYs List.

“Election Night 2025 was a clean sweep for EMILYs List women and made clear that the path to flipping the House in 2026 runs through electing bold women leaders,” EMILYs List President Jessica Mackler said in a statement.

There’s even quiet handwringing happening in western Montana over a brewing primary for the seat held by GOP Rep Ryan Zinke. Democrats are bullish on flipping a seat Trump won by nearly a dozen points last year, but party leaders are raising private concerns about the past lobbying work on sanctuary cities and transgender issues done by smoke jumper Sam Forstag, who is considering whether to enter the three-person race.

The comeback bid 

If the national redistricting fight continues, it could further shake up at least one primary field.

Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District has flipped between parties four times over the past two decades and could be made bluer by Virginia Democrats in a redraw. Former Rep. Elaine Luria is trying to mount a comeback bid, but Navy reservist James Osyf is already in the race and has posted healthy fundraising totals.

“We’re in the process of redistricting, and everyone expects the 2nd to be significantly different,” said Rep. Bobby Scott (D-Va.), who represents a neighboring district.

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Key Democrat seeks inspector general probe into FAA chief’s airline stock divestment

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Key Democrat seeks inspector general probe into FAA chief’s airline stock divestment

Sen. Maria Cantwell and other lawmakers want an investigation into whether the agency’s administrator “profited from deliberately violating his ethics agreement.”…
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Key Democrat seeks inspector general probe into FAA chief’s airline stock divestment

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Sen. Maria Cantwell and other lawmakers want an investigation into whether the agency’s administrator “profited from deliberately violating his ethics agreement.”…
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From Iran to Paris weather: Alleged prediction market violations start stacking up

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Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi are quickly becoming an economic and political force, accruing multi-billion dollar valuations and drawing support from key officials in the Trump administration.

But backlash to the platforms is spreading — in Washington and in state capitals — with accusations of insider trading following White House military action in Venezuela and Iran and dogging several midterm election campaigns.

Fault lines over who is in charge of regulation are already emerging, with several frontline Democrats pushing to rein in the companies. In March, California Gov. Gavin Newsom signed an executive order barring appointed state officials from using insider information to place bets on prediction markets. Regulation discussions are ongoing in other states, including Arizona and Massachusetts.

Donald Trump Jr., the president’s son, meanwhile, is an adviser for both Kalshi and Polymarket. And both companies are spending big to win over the country’s political class, with Polymarket opening a pop-up bar on K Street, among other efforts. Both platforms did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Here are some of the most recent incidents that have piqued the anxiety of state and federal lawmakers.

People gather at a government-organized event to watch former President Nicolas Maduro and first lady Cilia Flores appear in a New York court on a screen in Caracas, Venezuela, on March 26, 2026.

The capture of Nicolás Maduro

Federal authorities on Thursday announced the arrest of a U.S. Army special forces soldier they accused of using confidential information to place more than a dozen bets on Polymarket tied to the January capture of Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro.

Gannon Ken Van Dyke, a 38-year-old soldier who helped plan the Caracas operation, spent roughly $33,000 on the bets, earning more than $400,000 in payouts, the Justice Department said. Authorities charged him with unlawfully using confidential government information for personal gain, among other alleged offenses.

The operation saw U.S. forces capture Maduro overnight in his bedroom, before flying the longtime Venezuelan leader to New York City to face narco-terrorism charges.

Van Dyke’s alleged actions took advantage of that mission, the government officials argue.

“Our men and women in uniform are trusted with classified information in order to accomplish their mission as safely and effectively as possible, and are prohibited from using this highly sensitive information for personal financial gain,” acting Attorney General Todd Blanche said in a statement Thursday. “Widespread access to prediction markets is a relatively new phenomenon, but federal laws protecting national security information fully apply.”

A woman member of the Basij paramilitary, affiliated with Iran's Revolutionary Guard, holds her gun and an Iranian flag during a state-organized rally in support of the supreme leader marking National Girl's Day in Tehran, Iran, on April 17, 2026.

U.S.-Iran ceasefire

In the hours before President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire with Iran in early April, at least 50 newly created Polymarket accounts spent thousands betting on a temporary peace, according to an Associated Press report.

One account, created just 12 minutes before Trump’s Truth Social announcement, made $48,500 on a $31,908 bet that a ceasefire would occur. Another cashed out for a profit of $200,000, the AP reported.

Polymarket also took heat after the U.S.’s initial strikes on Iran, with “six suspected insiders” placing bets on the attacks just before they took place, according to Blockchain company Bubblemaps, taking home more than $1 million.

Israeli authorities, meanwhile, charged two people in February for using classified information to place bets about military operations on Polymarket, according to NPR.

The U.S. Capitol building is seen April 20, 2026.

Congressional bets

On Wednesday, Kalshi announced that it was suspending three 2026 congressional candidates from the platform for betting on their own races. Minnesota Democrat Matthew Klein, Texas Republican Ezekiel Enriquez and Virginia Senate candidate Mark Moran were each given five-year bans and faced fines or penalties ranging from roughly $500 to more than $6,000.

Klein, who is running to replace outgoing House lawmaker Angie Craig in Minnesota’s 2nd District, issued an apology on X.

“This was a mistake, and I apologize,” he wrote. “My experience, like many other Minnesotans, points to the need for clearer rules and regulations for these types of markets.”

Enriquez has not appeared to publicly comment on his wager or suspension.

Moran, a former “FBoy Island” contestant who is running a long-shot bid to challenge Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.) in Virginia, took a different tack, writing on X that he wanted to be caught.

“I traded $100 on myself, knowing this would happen (also knowing that I wouldn’t be vying for the democratic nomination) and the attention it would create to highlight how this company is destroying young men and as Senator I will go after Kalshi and impose significant penalties on them – 25% – a vice tax – to pay down our national debt,” he said.

A man on a bicycle rides on the flooded banks of the Seine next to the Eiffel Tower in Paris on Feb. 25, 2026.

Playing with Mother Nature

Several Polymarket traders made thousands of dollars in profits for accurately predicting sudden, anomalous spikes in the temperature at Paris’ Charles De Gaulle airport April 15, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Météo-France, the country’s weather service, is now investigating the incident, which could be tied to tampering.

Jimmy Donaldson, the popular YouTube video maker who goes by MrBeast, is seen at an MLS soccer match between Inter Miami and CF Montreal on March 10, 2024, in Fort Lauderdale, Florida.

MrBeast’s editor

In February, Kalshi reported Artem Kaptur, an editor for MrBeast, one of the world’s biggest influencers and most popular YouTube creators, to federal authorities for allegedly trading “on material, non-public information he obtained because of his employment” regarding the celebrity’s YouTube videos.

Kalshi suspended Kaptur from its platform for two years and imposed a financial penalty of more than $20,000. He was fired in March.

“Beast Industries has no tolerance for this behavior, whether by contestants or our own employees,” MrBeast’s company wroteat the time.

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