Politics
Democrats desperately look for a redistricting edge in California, New York and Maryland
Democratic leaders are feeling pressure to join a brewing redistricting battle that is threatening to upend the midterms landscape — an effort that is likely to slam into legal and political reality.
As Texas Republicans pressed forward with a redistricting blitz designed to increase the number of red seats in the state, officials in the biggest Democratic states scrambled for a response. In New York, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries spoke with Gov. Kathy Hochul in recent days to discuss what a counter-effort could look like. California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s administration talked to state election officials about the logistics and timing of a special election to overturn its nonpartisan commission. And Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker joined Newsom in meeting with Texas Democratic lawmakers on Friday about a strategy for stalling the GOP’s brazen attempt to carve out five new seats, per President Donald Trump’s demand.
The problem is Democrats don’t have many options. In conversations with more than a dozen state lawmakers and redistricting experts, Democrats’ best shot at redrawing a map lies in California, a heavily blue state with a huge number of congressional districts. They see the second-best option in New York, which saw Democratic gerrymandering efforts sputter in recent years, and Illinois, which is already a heavily pro-Democrat gerrymander. Far less likely options lie with Maryland and New Jersey, which have just four Republican-held seats between them.
Discussion of these options come as a debate rages within the party over whether to play hard ball to the same degree as Republicans.
“At this moment, it seems very clear that self defense is something we have to put as a priority,” said Maryland House Majority Leader David Moon, who introduced a bill this week that would force open Maryland’s redistricting process if another state pursues redistricting ahead of the U.S. Census. “If that’s where we are, and that’s where we’re forced to go, then I think that’s where Democratic states need to be prepared to go.”
Trump is pushing Republicans in an aggressive effort to redraw maps in hopes of holding onto the House in a potentially unfriendly midterms cycle. Efforts are already underway in Texas, where Trump wants to draw five additional GOP seats, and in Ohio, where Republicans hope to draw additional red districts during a legally mandated redistricting. Punchbowl News recently reported Trump is pressuring Missouri to rip up its own map ahead of the midterms, too.
All of this has sparked outrage from the Democratic base, but Republicans feel bullish about a midterms map that is reshaped by partisan redistricting.
“In an arms race where there’s a race to gerrymander the most, there’s not a scenario where they have more seats than we do,” said a GOP operative, granted anonymity to speak about party strategy.
Newsom has been the most strident of all the Democratic governors who lead trifectas in his vow to counter Texas Republicans, vowing on Friday to “put a stake into the heart” of the Trump administration by preventing Republicans from retaining the House.
But the obstacles are steep: Redrawing California’s map would require either calling a special election and convincing voters to return line-drawing power to politicians after they specifically voted to entrust a nonpartisan commission with that authority, or simply having the Legislature draw maps and effectively daring the courts to stop them.
“I don’t think it’s doable. I think there are too many constitutional constraints,” said Bruce Cain, a Stanford political scientist who was deeply involved as a staffer in the partisan gerrymanders from a prior era of California politics.
It’s not just a legal obstacle. Undertaking redistricting would open up a huge “political fight” within the party by redrawing districts some politicians have run in for multiple cycles, he said. “You’d be borrowing from different kinds of Democrats and sticking them into other seats and the politics of that would be very complex,” Cain added.
But Newsom, who has his eye on running for president in 2028, has been steadily laying the groundwork anyway. He hosted Texas Democrats at the governor’s mansion in Sacramento on Friday, doing his part to project a united national front against Republicans, and told reporters he was weighing several options to expand Democrats’ margins beyond their current, disproportionate hold on 43 of 52 House seats.
“The question I imagine many folks are asking here in California is: what do the politics of Texas have to do with the politics here in California?” Newsom told reporters on Friday, flanked by Texas lawmakers. “The answer is everything.”
Lawmakers and operatives who were initially caught off guard or skeptical of Newsom’s proposal are increasingly becoming convinced California has the authority and the political will to respond to Texas in kind. Sharing maps of a potential Democratic gerrymander has become a favorite pastime.
“I’ve seen a map that’s legal, upholds the Voting Rights Act, and produces 49 to 50 Democratic seats,” said Matt Barreto, a pollster and director of UCLA’s Voting Rights Project who polled for the Harris campaign and advised the Biden White House. California currently has 40 Democrats and 12 Republicans in Congress. “This is something lawmakers should consider if Texas goes first.”
In New York, Jeffries’ staff spoke with Hochul’s office recently to discuss redistricting New York’s House seats, two people with direct knowledge of the conversation said. On Thursday, Hochul declared that “all’s fair in love and war” regarding returning to contentious congressional map redraw.
“If there’s other states violating the rules and are trying to give themselves an advantage, all I’m going to say is, I’m going to look at it with Hakeem Jeffries,” she said.
Even if state lawmakers plow ahead with redistricting, something the state Constitution says can only be done once per decade, the process would likely take more than a year to complete and may not be finished in time for the 2026 midterm elections.
New York tried an aggressive gerrymander that got blocked by the courts in 2022, and a court-drawn map was used instead. Democrats later drew a new map that is far less aggressive.
Hochul’s political allies believe there is little upside to drawing new lines.
“I understand those in New York who are watching what’s happening in Texas and Ohio want to offset their unfair advantage,” said New York Democratic Chair Jay Jacobs. But “the constitution seems pretty clear that this redistricting process should be done every 10 years. I don’t know where someone could interpret it as something you can do every two years.”
Beyond Texas, Republicans have their eye on picking up seats in other states like Missouri and Florida — which would put Democrats in a tough spot, given they don’t have as much leeway to squeeze out extra seats.
New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy was noncommittal when asked by reporters earlier this week if he plans to pursue redistricting, noting that it’s “too early to make any definitive statement about it.” But he echoed what many other Democrats across the country have said when talking about the possibility of early redistricting: “Never bring a knife to a gunfight.”
New Jersey has its own constitutional impediment, which states that congressional districts, which are drawn by an independent commission, “shall remain unaltered through the next year ending in zero in which a federal census for this State is taken.”
Even if they were able to circumvent the state constitution, Democrats already have the majority in the New Jersey congressional delegation, and just two seats — the 7th, held by Republican Rep. Tom Kean Jr., and the 9th, held by Democratic Rep. Nellie Pou — are considered battlegrounds.
Even some other Hail Mary options seem off the table. State lawmakers in Washington, Minnesota and Colorado balked at the suggestion they should pursue drawing new maps in the next few months.
“It’s just not in the cards,” said Washington House Majority Leader Joe Fitzgibbon, citing the requirement that a two-thirds majority is needed in both the state House and Senate to reconvene the state’s bipartisan redistricting commission.
And Minnesota State Sen. Aric Nesbitt shut down the idea quickly: “We’re not power-crats, we’re Democrats. We should do things that improve democracy, even if that means sometimes we don’t get our way.” Democrats hold the governorship and state Senate in Minnesota, but Republicans narrowly control the House.
In Colorado “there’s really no debate,” said former Senate Leader Steve Fenberg, who helped create the state’s independent redistricting commission in 2018.“We’re at a juncture right now where the threat is so overwhelming that I don’t think Democrats should rule out responding in kind,” he said. “But in a state like Colorado, I don’t think it’s really in our DNA to do this kind of action and it’s not constitutionally allowed.”
Still, with a potentially tougher cycle ahead of them than they were anticipating given all of Trump’s strategy, redistricting is sure to be a hot topic of conversation as Democratic governors gather at the National Governors Association meeting this weekend in Colorado.
“I suspect as the Democratic governors get together for a drink or a coffee, this will be high on the agenda,” Murphy said.
Democratic socialists just caused a political earthquake. Now they’re coming for 2028.
Fresh off sweeping victories across New York City that showcased the growing power of the anti-establishment progressive left inside the Democratic Party, Democratic Socialists of America leaders, eager to capitalize on their momentum, are already plotting their next act: making sure one of their own is on the presidential primary debate stage, whether the party wants them or not.
“What DSA represents is a real contrast to Democrats who have run the last couple of elections on fear,” DSA national co-chair Megan Romer said. “You can’t run on that. You have to offer an alternative. And it’s really important that we be involved in that conversation in 2028. It’s important that we have somebody saying sensible things.”
Their search process is already underway. This summer, DSA is dispatching surveys to all 250 of its chapters, asking members to weigh who they want to back and why, and return their findings to national leadership by Sept. 15, details the group first shared with Blue Light News. DSA expects to receive a stack of 20-page to 40-page dossiers from chapters coast to coast weighing in on who should carry the democratic socialist banner into 2028.
The organization plans to hold national discussions, including with leaders like New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), who is 84 and not expected to run in 2028, with a formal vote expected at the group’s 2027 convention next year — though leaders say they could move faster if the primary timeline demands it.
“We’re going to be talking about millions of hours knocking doors for 2028 — so when we decide to really run somebody, people have to feel like they had a say,” Romer said.
Mamdani-backed candidates swept three closely watched New York congressional primaries Tuesday, with Claire Valdez, Brad Lander and Darializa Avila Chevalier all defeating more establishment-aligned rivals — including two incumbents. It was a major show of force for Mamdani’s political operation, and fresh evidence of the left’s growing muscle heading into 2028. “They ask, ‘Who do you want to run in 2028?’ Then they ask, ‘When does the race for 2028 begin?’ It starts now. It starts on Tuesday,” Mamdani said at a Brooklyn rally last week.
The elephant in the room for the group, of course, is Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
The New York representative has yet to say whether she will run for president in 2028 — and has been rumored to be interested in running for the seat currently held by Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer. Her name hangs over any serious conversations DSA leaders have about the race. But Romer made clear that one of the country’s best-known democratic socialists would need to go through the same process as any other candidates, and would not automatically be handed a rose.
“She will have to sell her campaign and why DSA should throw down behind it,” she said, noting that means going to the group’s roughly 110,000 members in 250 chapters. “We don’t do kingmakers.”
The relationship between DSA and Ocasio-Cortez has at times been complicated. After backing her insurgent 2018 bid, DSA national in 2024 briefly conditioned its reelection endorsement on several demands around her positions on Israel. That exposed a rift with NYC-DSA, which had already endorsed her and asked national leaders to withdraw their conditional backing.
When asked directly whether DSA wants Ocasio-Cortez to run, Romer was careful not to get ahead of rank-and-file members for or against.
“If it reveals that every chapter is like, ‘We want AOC, we want AOC’ — that’s something that could come out of this process,” she said. “And if that seems to be the overwhelming case, then that may be what we decide to do. We want to get in on the ground floor. It would be really great to be a day-one part of a campaign.”
And then there is Mamdani.
The New York City mayor went from a complete unknown to one of the most popular and influential progressives in the country, boosting democratic socialism’s political profile in a way not seen since Ocasio-Cortez’s rise and perhaps since Sanders’ first presidential run. But Mamdani wasn’t born in the United States, making him constitutionally ineligible for the presidency.
“Some people are like, let’s just run him — let’s just cause a constitutional crisis,” Romer said, describing it as a running joke, though she was “not sure everybody’s fully joking.”
Tuesday’s wins in New York were the latest in a string of DSA victories accumulating across the country, including Chris Rabb’s primary win in Pennsylvania’s 3rd District in Philadelphia, and mayoral races in Washington, D.C., last week and Seattle last fall.
The group is backing Melat Kiros — a first-time candidate taking on a 30-year incumbent Rep. Diana DeGette in Colorado next week — as well as Oliver Larkin in Florida and former Rep. Cori Bush in her bid to reclaim the Missouri congressional seat she lost last cycle. It’s a packed primary calendar that reflects just how aggressively DSA is looking to expand its footprint heading into 2028.
“The sheer scale of what just happened in New York is historic,” said Bhaskar Sunkara, former DSA vice-chair and president of The Nation. “Nationally, this is a massive boon for the democratic socialist movement. The old institutional left is hollowed out — DSA has proven to be the only real mobilizational force left on the ground. “
But Sunkara noted the movement still had a lot to figure out ahead of 2028, especially if it is to translate its momentum beyond DSA’s urban, heavily lefty strongholds. Moderate Democrats have long argued that democratic socialist candidates are a liability in competitive battleground seats, too far left to win over the voters the party needs in purple districts and red-leaning states.
“A national map includes deep-red and rural districts where the left still has to figure out how to speak to working-class voters and compete,” Sunkara said. “Having national platforms through multiple members of Congress is a start there too.”
DSA’s leaders say the moment the group is having has been years in the making — and comes after some recent turbulent times that followed 2018’s emergence of the Squad as a high-water mark and then saw years of grinding setbacks: a pandemic that gutted in-person organizing, a Biden era that Romer described as a “wet blanket,” and a 2024 Kamala Harris campaign that didn’t listen when DSA tried to push the candidate left.
“The squad dropped off a bit,” Romer said. “2022 was a really, really tough year for left politics.”
The 2024 cycle also brought losses for both Bush and Jamaal Bowman, who was ousted in what was at the time the most expensive House primary in history, powered largely by AIPAC spending.
Now the tide appears to be turning again.
Looking ahead to 2028, the socialist wing of the Democratic Party wants to force a reckoning within the party it believes has spent years running from its own base while asking voters to settle for less.
“The best possible thing that could happen is having a string of victories in the midterms and forcibly reshaping the way the national Democratic Party approaches some of these issues, and having a much larger presence in the Democratic primary, and hopefully the presidential candidacy,” said Hasan Piker, a prominent progressive Twitch streamer and one of the most influential voices in the democratic socialist movement, who campaigned heavily in New York for the full DSA slate.
Tuesday’s wins, he said, are a way to bring the party further to their side, turning far-left politics more mainstream.
As for who he wants to see carry the socialist banner in 2028, Piker is still hoping for Ocasio-Cortez. “That could change, 2028 is far out,” he said. “But that’s what I got so far.”
Rep. April McClain Delaney won her bitter and expensive Democratic primary for Maryland’s 6th District on Tuesday, denying her predecessor, former Rep. David Trone, from making a comeback.
The race drew $23 million in TV spending, with much of that coming from the candidates directly, and became a microcosm of the Democratic Party’s clashes over President Donald Trump, money in politics and immigration.
McClain Delaney, who is serving her first term in Congress, had the backing of the rest of the state’s Democratic congressional delegation, along with Gov. Wes Moore.
Trone announced he would challenge McClain Delaney in December, citing in part her vote for the Laken Riley Act, a Republican-led immigration bill. McClain Delaney later said she regretted the vote, saying she hadn’t imagined “the horror” of Trump’s immigration enforcement would come to pass.
Trone almost entirely self-funded his attempt to return to Congress. He previously represented the 6th District for three terms but gave up his seat to run for Senate in 2024, losing in the primary to now-Sen. Angela Alsobrooks (D-Md.). McClain Delaney, who is married to former Rep. John Delaney (D-Md.), won an open primary and was elected to the seat that year.
The seat is considered safe for Democrats for the midterms. McClain Delaney won by a bit more than 6 points in 2024.
Maryland state Del. Adrian Boafo won the Democratic primary Tuesday to replace retiring Rep. Steny Hoyer in the 5th District, aided by $11 million from pro-crypto and pro-Israel groups.
Boafo was Hoyer’s preferred successor and his former campaign manager. The primary was marked by intraparty divisions over heavy outside spending and what may be the last intraparty fight between Hoyer and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who endorsed a rival in the race.
United Democracy Project, a super PAC associated with the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, pumped $5.7 million into the race to promote Boafo, becoming the single biggest spender on the airwaves. Protect Progress, a super PAC aligned with the crypto industry, poured $5.5 million into the race, largely to benefit Boafo, a former federal lobbyist for the tech firm Oracle.
This spending in the crowded 24-candidate field drew the ire of many of Boafo’s rivals. Three of them — Harry Dunn, Rushern Baker and Quincy Bareebe — took the unusual step of jointly denouncing the interest groups’ efforts to influence the primary outcome. Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.), a potential 2028 presidential contender who did not endorse in the race, also accused the groups of trying to buy the seat.
Boafo’s victory now stands as a major win for the powerful arm of the pro-Israel lobby that’s drawn heavy scrutiny from some Democrats over its aggressive tactics in this year’s primary contests, as well as for Hoyer in getting his handpicked successor for his seat.
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