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Congress waits on Trump as December health sprint begins

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Congress returns to session Monday and kicks off a December sprint to address expiring Affordable Care Act subsidies and prevent health insurance premium hikes for millions of Americans.

Members of both parties acknowledge success hangs on one question: Will President Donald Trump ever figure out what he wants?

Since lawmakers left town 10 days ago, the picture has only grown foggier. Early in their holiday break, Trump appeared to be on the precipice of announcing a framework to temporarily extend the Obamacare subsidies with new eligibility restrictions, only to pull back after a mountain of internal GOP criticism.

In his only comments on the matter, Trump injected more uncertainty last week, saying he doesn’t want to extend the subsidies but understands it might be necessary.

The mixed signals have left the various factions on Capitol Hill trying to figure out where Trump will ultimately come down — and how to entice the president to back their side in a thorny policy fight that could have major political consequences in next year’s midterm elections.

“The president has got to sign whatever we do, otherwise it’s a legislative exercise,” said Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.), who is drafting what he describes as a bipartisan proposal that would largely align with the leaked White House framework.

But Fitzpatrick and other lawmakers are quickly running out of time to pin Trump down. The Senate will vote next week, as soon as Dec. 9, on a health care proposal. It’s unclear what will be in the bill, but it’s the fulfillment of a promise Majority Leader John Thune made to Democrats as part of a deal to end the 43-day government shutdown.

“The question is, how quickly can something come together?” Thune said before leaving Washington for Thanksgiving.

Or as Fitzpatrick put it, “Time is not our friend.”

Fitzpatrick and other centrists are looking to build bipartisan support for an extension of the subsidies, a priority for Democrats, with new income restrictions and other safeguards, which are a priority for Republicans. Their efforts have loose backing from the Republican Main Street Caucus, whose chair, Rep. Mike Flood of Nebraska, quickly endorsed the contours of the leaked White House framework last week.

But others in the GOP want to pursue a more radical overhaul of Obamacare, with Sens. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana and Rick Scott of Florida pitching the president on plans centered around individual spending accounts. Scott even termed his vision as “Trump Health Freedom Accounts.”

Trump has kept Congress in limbo as lawmakers try to figure out what he will support. Republicans spent much of November thinking the president was turning away from extending the tax credits, only to be blindsided by news that the White House framework would do just that.

Most House and Senate Republicans, including senior members of leadership, learned details of the tentative White House proposal — and how quickly it could be rolled out — from media reports, including POLITICO’s. Their objections prompted the White House to scuttle the rollout.

A House Republican granted anonymity to discuss internal conference thinking acknowledged that it would have been “wiser” if the Trump administration had consulted directly with Hill GOP leaders before word of the framework leaked out.

The GOP lawmaker added that Trump “cannot please everyone” with any health plan.

“Most took it as a good sign that the [White House] initially accepted a modified extension,” the lawmaker said. “Yes, a subset complained but I think they’re in the minority.”

Getting an extension of the subsidies through the House and Senate, not to mention Trump, will require navigating a political obstacle course.

For one, the framework was silent on new abortion restrictions, which are a key demand for many Republicans and a deal-break for many Democrats.

“We’re not going to allow public funds to be used for funding abortion,” Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.) told reporters before Thanksgiving.

While much of the GOP backlash to Trump’s unreleased framework was about how lawmakers found out about it, there’s a significant swath of Republicans who will simply never vote to extend anything related to Obamacare, according to three GOP aides granted anonymity to discuss internal dynamics.

In addition to the Scott and Cassidy plans, a coalition of House and Senate Republicans that includes key committee chairs are working behind the scenes on a range of possible health care proposals, but there’s no guarantee the GOP will fall in line behind the plans or whether the lawmakers will even produce a bill this year.

As a fail-safe, House GOP centrists are preparing to launch a discharge petition to force a floor vote on a subsidy extension. But they are also trying to give space to the Senate to see if a bipartisan deal can be reached, according to two Republicans granted anonymity to discuss the talks.

Some lawmakers are already looking at Jan. 30, the next government funding deadline, as the real cutoff for a health care deal, even though the credits would have expired by then. And some hard-liners want GOP leaders to embrace a party-line approach amid widespread skepticism among their colleagues that’s even doable.

Senate Finance Chair Mike Crapo (R-Idaho), whose committee shares oversight of the ACA, said he is “working to try to find a pathway to get some bipartisan solution” — not a partisan, filibuster-skirting bill Republicans could pursue under the budget reconciliation process.

“There are a lot of things going on,” he said. Crapo added that even if the promised Senate vote fails, “We will need to be continuing to work … with our colleagues on both sides of the aisle to try to find some broader health care solutions.”

Democrats were initially buoyed by news that Trump was preparing to endorse an extension of the subsidies, despite the eligibility restrictions, believing that it was a good sign that he was even thinking about it. But that optimism faded after witnessing the Republican backlash.

They have their own internal divisions over what their own strategy should be as the clock ticks. Senate Democrats, as part of the agreement with Thune, will get to decide what proposal they vote on. But they haven’t yet come to consensus and are expected to use a Tuesday caucus lunch to discuss their options.

A group of Democrats, including Sen. Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire and Rep. Tom Suozzi of New York, has been in close contact with Republican lawmakers including Fitzpatrick and Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska about what could get bipartisan support. But others, such as independent Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, want Democrats to instead embrace a sweeping health care plan that would have no chance of winning GOP votes but would give them a rallying point heading into the midterm elections.

That divide has haunted congressional Democrats since January as they’ve repeatedly struggled to unify at key moments. There’s also widespread skepticism that Republicans will ever agree to any health care plan that isn’t fully endorsed by Trump.

“That’s the trouble today: You can have good-faith negotiations with Republicans, but it just doesn’t matter until Donald Trump weighs in,” said Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.). “The pollsters have obviously told them that they are going to get their clocks cleaned if they don’t fix the health care mess they created. They may hate the ACA and Barack Obama so much they are willing to lose an election.”

Nicholas Wu contributed to this report. 

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Congress

GOP senators urge Trump to find Iran exit plan as energy prices rise: ‘The clock is ticking’

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President Donald Trump promised a quick end to the war in Iran, but the ongoing conflict has kept energy costs high — and some Senate Republicans are starting to go public with their concerns.

GOP lawmakers who already feared November would be an increasingly tough battle are trying to nudge the president toward clearly defining his endgame after a surge in oil, gas and fertilizer prices. Trump warned the sticker shock might not completely recede by the time the November elections roll around, though news Friday that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen could begin to bring some relief if the agreement sticks.

Several GOP senators are warning the president could face growing pushback, including them not supporting military action against Iran after the conflict hits the 60-day mark at the end of the month, if he doesn’t articulate his plan. The White House could try to invoke a 30-day extension for national security reasons.

“I hope that we are arriving at an exit strategy here to bring this to a close to preserve our security interests and bring down the cost of gasoline,” Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) told reporters this week, adding that the “clock is ticking” on the war.

Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) said in an interview that she and a group of other senators are in the process of drafting an authorization for the use of military force against Iran, which would lay out when and how Trump could use force. She pointed to the 60-day threshold as a possible deadline for hammering out text, saying it would be “helpful” for it to be done by then.

Even senior Republicans are warning that if the administration wants Congress to greenlight tens of billions in additional war funding, Republicans are going to need to know more about the president’s ultimate Iran strategy beforehand.

“I think our members are going to be very interested in what next steps are,” said Senate Majority Leader John Thune, predicting that the administration’s forthcoming Iran war spending ask “will be an important inflection point if and when the administration submits their request.”

Thune, like most congressional Republicans, has been supportive of the administration’s Iran campaign but said the impact on gas and fertilizer prices is “a big deal” back in his home state of South Dakota.

“We’re in planting season so if you didn’t buy fertilizer ahead of time, you’re really feeling it, and obviously fuel is a critically important part of production, agriculture,” Thune said this week, prior to the Strait’s reopening.

Retiring Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) predicted his party would ultimately keep the Senate majority, but said the Iran war and the related spike in pricing could be a drag when they are already facing “headwinds.”

“The president has to help us get the vote out,” Tillis said. “But the base alone is not going to be able to do it. The way we’re going to get the other ones is addressing the energy challenges, particularly the price at the pump and some of the other affordability issues.”

Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.), in an interview before Friday’s announcement, predicted that prices would come down after the strait’s reopening and that it would matter the most in September, when swing voters start tuning in for the midterms.

“If we’re going into September and, even more, October … with super high — you know gas prices over $4 — I mean it’s going to be a problem,” Cramer said.

There were early signs of celebration from Senate Republicans Friday over the announcement that the strait had reopened, even if it’s potentially only temporarily.

“Very glad to hear the Strait of Hormuz is open, at least for the remainder of the ceasefire,” Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) wrote on X.

Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio), also took a victory lap: “Will Dems be making comments about the massive drop in oil prices?” he asked.

Trump has suggested that he is eager to negotiate a deal to end the conflict. And GOP lawmakers have largely deferred to Trump so far — including defeating attempts in both chambers this week to limit the president’s ability to carry out additional military action without Congress.

But even with oil shipments through the strait set to resume now, some Republicans say generally, they want to see the president focusing more on affordability issues.

“I would like to see the president spend 70 percent of his time talking about all the things that we and he have done to reduce the cost of living and 30 percent of his time on other important stuff,” Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) said in an interview.

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GOP hard-liners threaten to tank FISA vote

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House GOP hardliners are threatening to tank the FISA rule shortly on the House floor as Speaker Mike Johnson tries to force through a five year extension, according to four people granted anonymity to speak about plans not yet public.

They’re livid over the “inexplicable 5 year extension, the fake warrant requirement, and the walk back of the promise from this afternoon to include CBDC,” according to one of the people, referring negotiations to prohibit a central bank digital currency.

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‘The original sin:’ Hill Republicans blame White House for slow-walking FISA sales pitch

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A messy GOP battle over a key government spy authority boiled over in the House this week — but the crisis was months in the making.

White House officials and Republican Hill leaders have tried to pressure GOP hard-liners into approving a clean, 18-month extension of Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act that President Donald Trump demanded. But amid a GOP rebellion on Capitol Hill, Speaker Mike Johnson Thursday afternoon punted a vote on the measure for the second day in a row.

The program expires Monday night. Senators went home for the weekend as Johnson continued to pursue a compromise with the holdouts for an extension as long as three years with reforms, and raced to hold a vote.

Now, the finger-pointing among Republicans is rampant and temperatures are running high.

A band of House ultraconservatives — who have long been concerned that warrantless government surveillance of foreign individuals could sweep up data on Americans — shot down Trump and GOP leaders’ long-held plans for the 18-month extension with no reforms earlier this week.

“A clean extension ain’t going to move on the floor,” Rep. Chip Roy of Texas, one of the head House GOP holdouts, warned earlier this week.

In interviews with more than two dozen Republican lawmakers and aides on Capitol Hill involved in the talks, many of whom were granted anonymity to speak freely about the contentious policy debate, the consensus is that the White House is largely responsible for the current breakdown as GOP factions snipe and assign blame.

“This is why we shouldn’t wait until the last minute on these things,” one House Republican fumed Thursday. A congressional GOP aide added, “The White House was too late to come to a decision. That was the original sin.”

A senior White House official disputed the characterization from some Hill Republicans that the administration had taken too long to plead their case. They pointed to a briefing in the Situation Room months ago with Republican lawmakers, during which “the president heard arguments on both sides of the issue.”

The official added, “We’ve had multiple briefings from senior officials, both on the House and Senate side, about the desirability of this program. Again, going back months ago.”

Trump told House Intelligence Chair Rick Crawford (R-Ark.) and House Judiciary Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) that he wanted a clean extension, without reforms, in February. The president arrived at this position, a second White House official said, after “the administration completed a policy process through the interagency and advised POTUS that a clean extension was the best course and solicited views on length from Blue Light News.”

There was also coordination between the White House and Capitol Hill, according to three people familiar and the senior White House official: Johnson requested the reauthorization run for 18 months, and Trump agreed.

The administration succeeded in convincing Jordan, who had previously pushed for changes to Section 702, to publicly support a clean extension following a White House meeting on the subject.

But ultraconservatives on Capitol Hill were harder to convince, with some House Republicans correctly predicting two months ago they were going to have issues as the vote drew nearer. Trump has forced those hard-liners to cave in recent months on other fights, but the spy powers legislation was one area where members have not been as willing to relent.

While Trump officials made outreach to members at least two months ago, Hill engagement ramped up in the days leading up to the scheduled vote. That has included appeals to lawmakers from CIA Director John Ratcliffe, Deputy CIA Director Michael Ellis and Joint Chiefs Chair Gen. Dan Caine, according to five people. Ellis has made personal phone calls to members, according to two people familiar with the pressure campaign.

White House deputy chief of staff James Blair, White House Legislative Affairs chief James Braid and other legislative affairs officials have also been calling individual House Republicans and working through negotiation details, according to six other people with direct knowledge of the conversations.

Noticeably absent from this outreach is Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard. Her office plays a statutory role in overseeing Section 702 and has historically been a key proponent of the powerful spy powers.

Gabbard in early February expressed concerns to Trump about reauthorizing the statute without additional privacy guardrails, as Blue Light News reported earlier Thursday, though her appeal appears to have been unsuccessful.

And while the administration’s position on Section 702 came into focus in February, there were signs earlier in the month that its position had not fully crystallized. Officials meeting with the Senate Intelligence Committee at that time refused to divulge the White House’s stance on extending the surveillance power and adding reforms, according to five people with knowledge of the meeting. The exchange frustrated Republicans and Democrats on the panel, who are generally supportive of the surveillance program.

Due to a quirk in the law, the administration will still be able to operate the program for nearly a year even if it is not renewed, and privacy advocates have argued that Monday is a false deadline. But without the law on the books, communications providers like Google and AT&T, which the government tasks to surveil foreign messages, could stop complying with those orders.

But White House officials want an extension codified now, all the same. They have been arguing in conversations with lawmakers that the country is at war and national security is paramount amid threats from Iran. Therefore, they say, hardliners should fall in line to back the clean extension without delay, according to five people involved in the conversations.

“The program is critical for the United States military to listen to the conversations of foreign terrorists abroad while we are engaged in a military operation in Iran. That’s what we’ve been telling individuals, as well as the elevated threat levels around the world, as well as the threat from Mexican drug cartels,” the senior White House official said.

Two groups of House GOP hard-liners, after being summoned by Trump Tuesday night, met with officials at the White House. But some of the Republicans declined the invitation.“I’ve heard everything that the executive has to say on FISA,” Freedom Caucus Chair Andy Harris (R-Md.) said in an interview that evening. That meeting, however, marked a shift: Those House Republicans who went to the White House alongside GOP leaders — among them Roy and Reps. Keith Self of Texas, Byron Donalds of Florida, Clay Higgins of Louisiana, Morgan Griffith of Virginia and Warren Davidson of Ohio — took the opportunity to begin negotiations about a framework for a possible agreement around the use of warrants to access certain information.

The discussions included how the White House and GOP leadership needed to make good on a months-old promise to advance legislation that would ban a central bank digital currency. Enough House GOP holdouts late Thursday evening were threatening to still tank the procedural vote to advance the extension if the White House didn’t address the digital currency matter, according to four people with direct knowledge of the matter. “Unless it’s included, there’s enough votes to kill the rule,” Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) said in an interview Thursday afternoon. But other Republicans, White House officials and Senate GOP leadership are warning that attaching the measure directly would tank the FISA bill.

In exchange for making these concessions, GOP leaders and the White House have been pushing for a Section 702 extension that’s longer than 18 months and closer to three years.

The senior White House official also said Thursday the administration has “focused in on potentially having conversations about reforms to the program that we think would strengthen protections for American civil liberties … those conversations are ongoing.”

Jordan, meanwhile, has been helping build support for a clean extension by privately telling some Republicans that, if they can pass this 18-month clean extension now, they could potentially work on warrant reforms later, according to three people with direct knowledge of the discussions. That’s raised some eyebrows internally among House Republicans.

The House delays are leaving barely any time for the Senate to act. Majority Leader John Thune said in an interview Thursday that he’s already started having conversations with his own members about what they would need to clear a FISA extension Monday.

Ultimately, even if GOP leaders strike a deal on changes to the current proposed extension, it could risk support for reauthorization among key Democrats, who Republicans will need to pass the final legislation in a narrowly-divided House. While some House Democrats are expected to help Republicans get the final bill across the finish line — including top Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee, Rep. Jim Himes of Connecticut — Democratic leaders have so far declined to shore up the votes for any fast-tracked process.

“I am deeply skeptical of a straightforward extension,” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said Thursday, adding he told Johnson a few days ago there was “great Democratic skepticism” on a clean extension.

One Democratic Hill aide said Johnson and Trump did far too little to coordinate their pitch with Democrats, who carried a razor-thin vote to re-up the law in 2024.

“They never came to us,” the aide said.

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