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Centrist Democrats are having their moment

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Moderate Democrats are on a tear.

Democrats are overperforming at the state level, with centrist candidates flipping one seat and coming close in another in special elections in deep red parts of Iowa. Rahm Emanuel, who once orchestrated a takeover of the House by recruiting Blue Dog Democrats, is eying a 2028 bid for president. And leading Democrats like Gavin Newsom and Chuck Schumer are rebuffing the left — the California governor siding against trans players in women’s sports and the Senate minority leader veering away from progressive demands to shut down the government.

“Moderates are having their moment,” said Jonathan Kott, the onetime senior adviser to the former centrist Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia. “I think people are realizing that there were many reasons we lost in 2024, but an acquiescence to all of the liberal groups and fighting and dying on hills about 1 and 2 and 3 percent of the voting population seemed really dumb.”

A fresh batch of public polling over the weekend showed the Democratic Party is facing its worst image crisis in some time. A NBC News poll showed more than half of independents have an unfavorable view of the party — just 11 percent of independents have positive views of Democrats — which could explain why Democrats are pivoting to reach these voters.

Even their own polling sees a move toward the center. In the party’s latest internal survey in congressional battlegrounds, the vast majority of voters — 69 percent — say Democrats were “too focused on being politically correct,” while 51 percent said the party is “elitist,” according to a poll conducted by the Democratic group Navigator Research.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom speaks during a news conference near the Otay Mesa Port of Entry along the border with Mexico, on Dec. 5, 2024, in San Diego.

“It’s a reaction to what happened in the wake of the Trump victory in 2016 where the party did move pretty radically to the left on a whole bunch of things and the country sort of did, too, particularly after the murder of George Floyd,” said Matt Bennett, the vice president of Third Way. The centrist group that has called for banning “far-left candidate questionnaires,” pushed “back against far-left staffers and groups that exert a disproportionate influence on policy and messaging,” and “own the failures of Democratic governance in large cities.”

The progressive and activist wing of the party isn’t rolling over. Populist champion Bernie Sanders is drawing large crowds in the Midwest, liberal activists are organizing against massive budget cuts and progressives are warning of a primary challenge to Schumer.

But the revolution is happening in a quieter way for centrists. Far from Washington, there are signs at the state level that moderate Democrats are doing extremely well in districts Trump captured only a few months ago.

In an Iowa state House special election last week, the Democratic candidate — though ultimately losing — outperformed Kamala Harris by 24 points. That performance by Democrat Nannette Griffin came on the heels of the party flipping a state Senate seat in Iowa and solidifying legislative majorities in Virginia. And it bolstered centrists’ argument that Democrats in the Trump era can motivate voters with meat-and-potatoes messaging around everyday costs.

The Iowa results build on Democrats’ string of successes in state legislative special elections this year, which the party is pointing to as a measure of enthusiasm ahead of the midterms.

“What I am noticing is just a rejuvenation within the Democrats across the state,” said Sen. Mike Zimmer, who picked up a GOP seat in rural Eastern Iowa in January that Trump won by 21 points. “If we work hard and we really come together and we have an organized plan, we can be much more competitive.”

And it isn’t just Iowa. Democrats are seizing on federal job losses as an issue in Pennsylvania special elections slated for the end of March, too, where they are pressing a more economic than ideological message.

In one state Senate district, where federal workers have been furloughed, “a lot of people have felt that it’s not being done in a gracious manner. A lot of people also just think it’s utter chaos,” said James Malone, the Democratic mayor of East Petersburg, Pennsylvania who is hoping to flip a GOP district.

Monroe called Zimmer the day after his victory to learn his playbook, and has adopted a similar economic message in his own campaign.

People attend a rally supporting federal workers outside the IRS regional office Saturday, March 15, 2025, in Kansas City, Mo.

“As chaos reigns in Washington, Democrats have meaningful and winnable opportunities to push back on the MAGA agenda through state legislative special elections,” said Heather Williams, president of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, which is focused on electing Democrats to state legislatures.

The political implications for Schumer or Newsom are far from clear. And the results of a handful of special elections hardly foretell a Democratic comeback in Iowa. Democrats have historically done well before in the part of the state with a dense population of blue-collar workers. And Republicans maintain a tight grip on power in Iowa.

“These special elections can be, you know, not always the harbinger or the canary in the coal mine that you know that folks want them to be,” said GOP strategist Tyler Campbell.

Still, Democrats are flexing their muscles — convinced that an economic message and the use of Elon Musk’s slash-and-burn approach to cutting government as a cudgel can lift the party across the map.

“It’s the energy factor,” said Iowa State Rep. JD Scholten. “Our side is very energized, because we’re irate with what’s happening. We’re seeing this as a national trend – people are fed up and disgusted with what they’re seeing out in D.C. and they’re trying to do something about it.”

In Washington, Schumer has shifted to the left since the years when he described himself as an “angry centrist,” and the criticism of him from within the party was not limited to progressives. But his vote last week was a repudiation of the protest politics of the party’s activist class.

“We have to reckon with the fact that young people, working class people, people of color – the backbone of the Democratic Party are moving away from the party,” said Stevie O’Hanlon, political director of the Sunrise Movement.

O’Hanlon said, “I think Chuck Schumer is part of that reason.”

But for some in the party, provoking the left may be the point. In challenging party orthodoxy on trans rights, Newsom joined Emanuel in tacking to the center, saying he was done “with the discussion of locker rooms” and “done with the discussion of bathrooms” and wanted instead to have a “conversation about the classroom.”

All of this is in line with a kind of cultural war retrenchment for which the party’s most pragmatic voices are practically pleading.

“There was an enormous shift in the culture and in our politics and some of that was very good and some of it went too far,” Third Way’s Bennett said. “And I think what we saw in 2024 was voters saying, ‘Whoa, we don’t think that the shift that the Democratic Party has taken was calibrated correctly. It went too far on a whole bunch of things.’”

Emily Ngo contributed to this report.

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A look inside a North Country primary feud

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Republican Assemblymember Robert Smullen says he has been a close ally to Rep. Elise Stefanik who has represented NY-21 since 2015.

DAYS THE BUDGET IS LATE: 43

PRIMARY COLORS: Republican Assemblymember Robert Smullen sat down with Rep. Elise Stefanik five years ago to talk about a rural development bill, but instead he made a bold claim: He intended to challenge her in a GOP primary.

The previously unreported meeting, according to two people with direct knowledge of the private conversation who were granted anonymity to discuss it, occurred in July 2021.

Smullen never followed through with a Stefanik primary challenge. And in a statement, he denied ever planning to challenge her for the nomination.

“I’ve never planned to primary Elise Stefanik,” he said in a statement. “I have too much respect for her, her leadership, and the job she has done fighting for NY-21 and Upstate New York.”

According to the people, the sitdown occurred as Republican House members in deep blue New York were bracing for what was expected to be a challenging round of redistricting. Smullen’s primary threat against Stefanik was based, in part, on the potential of her home being drawn out of the sprawling North Country seat she’s represented since 2015.

“To have the audacity to do that — to not read the room, but also not read the polling,” one of the people said. “By the end of the meeting he was set straight.”

It also came months after Stefanik replaced then-Rep. Liz Cheney as the Republican House conference chair following the Wyoming Republican’s emergence as an outspoken critic of President Donald Trump. Stefanik had previously emerged as a prominent Trump ally in Congress.

Yet Smullen over the years has donated frequently to Stefanik’s campaigns — including thousands of dollars between 2020 and 2024.

She also frequently appeared alongside Smullen at events, like at an October 2022 fundraiser for his Assembly reelection campaign as well as a rally a month later.

“I have known Elise personally for years, supported and donated to her campaigns, and appreciated her support for me during my own races,” Smullen said. “Like many elected officials and political allies do over the years, we had conversations about the future and the importance of continuing strong Republican representation for this district someday. That is very different from this narrative Blue Light News is trying to create.”

He added, “What is especially disappointing is that my opponent and his operatives are trying to drag Elise into a primary she has made clear she is staying out of so voters can make their own decision.”

Smullen also told Playbook that Stefanik comforted his family when his son was hospitalized and later died after he was struck by a car.

“During the hardest time in my family’s life, Elise was there for us while my son AJ was in the hospital and after we lost him. Those are not the actions of people involved in some fabricated political feud,” Smullen said. “I am focused on earning the support of voters across NY-21 and fighting for the conservative values that unite Republicans across Upstate New York.”

The state lawmaker is now running for the House seat Stefanik is vacating this year, competing for the nomination against Republican Anthony Constantino, the Trump-endorsed candidate in the June 23 primary.

Stefanik has not endorsed in the primary to succeed her. But her support is highly coveted by both Republican candidates.

She’s represented the House district for the last decade, building up a base of ardent supporters and aligning herself closely with the president’s MAGA movement.

Stefanik bowed out of running for reelection after scuttling a short-lived bid for governor.

Her decision not to run for another term has ignited a heated Republican primary to succeed her in a ruby red House seat that Trump has handily won three times.

Constantino, the CEO of the merchandise and printing company Sticker Mule, has marshaled the backing of Trump-allied luminaries like political operative Roger Stone, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani and retired Gen. Michael Flynn.

His candidacy has split Empire State Republicans, however.

The New York Republican Committee in April formally endorsed Smullen — a rare nod by the party’s statewide leadership in a GOP primary. Nick Reisman

FROM THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL

Assemblymember Micah Lasher was joined by Gov. Kathy Hochul and Rep. Jerry Nadler at a bagel shop Wednesday to film a video for Lasher's campaign for congress.

HOCHUL FILMS VIDEO FOR LASHER: Gov. Kathy Hochul, Rep. Jerry Nadler, Assemblymember Micah Lasher and political strategist Morris Katz all walked into a bagel shop.

It’s not the start of a joke, it’s what happened Tuesday at Tal Bagels on 90th and Broadway.

The three elected officials were spotted with the wunderkind political strategist filming a video together for Lasher’s run for Congress, according to two Playbook spies and a third person who confirmed the events. State Sen. Brad Hoylman-Sigal and Council Member Gale Brewer were also there.

Lasher is running for the Manhattan seat held by Nadler, his former boss, and was already endorsed by Hochul, also his former boss, last month.

But the soon-to-be released video will mark a unique level of involvement for Hochul in the race.

In the 2024 Democratic primaries, Hochul held a strict no-primary-endorsements policy, even though she privately fundraised for some candidates. Now, she’s filming Katzian videos over lox & schmear for Lasher in a competitive primary, where he’s up against Assemblymember Alex Bores, Kennedy scion Jack Schlossberg and anti-Trump commentator George Conway.

The meeting also shows a sort of détente in the political consulting world. In the bruising battle in neighboring NY-10, Katz’s Fight Agency is backing former city comptroller Brad Lander’s primary challenge of Rep. Dan Goldman, whose campaign is powered by consultants Haley Scott and Mark Guma.

Guma and Scott both work on Lasher’s campaign, which now can officially count Katz as a partner.

Behind the scenes, Katz, a key strategist on Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s campaign, has already been boosting Lasher. In February, POLITICO reported Katz was making calls to progressives to line up support for Lasher, identifying himself as “Morris Katz with the mayor” on the phone.

In a statement, Lasher spokesperson Caroline Crowell celebrated how the great bagel confab represented a unity between the rival consultants.

“Team Lasher is thrilled to welcome Fight Agency to our team that includes powerhouses Mark Guma and Haley Scott,” Crowell said. “We can’t wait for you to see what we’ve been cooking up. Stay tuned!” Jason Beeferman and Irie Sentner

RELATED: It’s unclear if Mamdani is going to wade into the primary for Nadler’s seat — and there haven’t been any significant signs that he will. But in an interview with the New York Editorial Board, Bores said he would “love” to have the mayor’s endorsement.

“I haven’t talked to him about an endorsement,” Bores said, adding that he would “welcome his endorsement, just like I welcome the endorsement of any voter in the district.”

“That’s a little lukewarm,” journalist Ben Smith replied.

“Given the opportunity to ask and, yes, I would love to have his endorsement, but I don’t expect that he will get involved in this race,” Bores, who often likes to mention that he and Mamdani were basketball buddies in Albany, continued.

Bores has raked in some eye-catching progressive endorsements, including from Our Revolution, the group founded by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.).

At a recent forum at a synagogue, both Bores and Lasher were asked if they regretted endorsing Mamdani in the general election; neither said no, but both qualified their support for the mayor, who has drawn the ire of some Jewish voters. NY-12 has a prominent Jewish constituency. Madison Fernandez

From the Capitol

Senate Majority Leader Andrea Stewart-Cousins told reporters she did not want the budget to extend this far in the session.

CLOCK’S TICKING: The state Capitol is starting to take on some post-budget vibes — despite the fact that budget talks haven’t yet concluded.

“This is later than usual,” Assemblymember David Weprin said of this year’s spending plan. “It took a long time till we were going to start doing regular bills because we thought we were going to have a budget relatively on time. Once that became a reality, we started taking up more regular bills.”

The advocacy focus in the halls near the Legislature’s chambers has increasingly moved away from last-minute budget pleas to stand-alone bills. Weprin joined former Charlotte Hornets forward Michael Kidd-Gilchrist today to push for more insurance coverage for stuttering. Other groups pushed for bans on data centers, a herbicide prohibition and new regulations on gun safes.

Both houses of the Legislature, meanwhile, are increasingly spending their days plowing through dense agendas.

“Would I have wanted to be at this point in session?” Senate Majority Leader Andrea Stewart-Cousins said while announcing a consumer protection package Tuesday. “No, I would hope as always that we were able to get an on-time budget and that we were able to accomplish what we needed to accomplish sooner than now. But that has not stopped us from paying attention to the things we care about.”

But time is still clearly running out — even if the budget is wrapped up next week, there will only be eight remaining session days. “We’re just going to run out of time,” Assemblymember Anna Kelles said.

And while legislative leaders have been adamant that June 4 will remain the last day, that pinch is stirring talks of overtime.

“I think we will have some special session after our session ends before the end of the year to do some bills we haven’t done,” Weprin predicted. — Bill Mahoney

FROM THE DELEGATION

According to NOTUS, the son of Sen. Rand Paul called Rep. Mike Lawler antisemitic insults.

BELTWAY VITRIOL: Rep. Mike Lawler called antisemitic insults hurled at him by William Paul, the son of Sen. Rand Paul, “reprehensible” and “fucking disgusting.”

NOTUS reported on Wednesday that last night, the younger Paul “confronted Lawler about Rep. Thomas Massie’s GOP primary election in Kentucky next week” and said that if he loses, it’s going to be because of “your people” — which he followed by saying “you Jews.”

Speaking to reporters in Washington, Lawler said Paul “went on a roughly 10 minute diatribe about Israel and about Jews, about Paul Singer and accusing Jews of being responsible for so many things, playing right into the typical antisemitic tropes that so many people rely on.”

Lawler is not Jewish. His district, just north of New York City, has a large Jewish population.

“It speaks to a larger issue, obviously, in society and what we’re seeing among young people and what we see online,” he said. “This is the level of hatred and vitriol, frankly, that some of my Jewish colleagues experience, but many of my constituents experience.”

Paul responded to the incident in an X post, writing that he “had too much to drink and said some things that don’t represent who I really am. I’m sorry and today I am seeking help for my drinking problem.” Madison Fernandez

IN OTHER NEWS

WALDEN IN THE WATERS: A coalition of wealthy donors has raised over $1 million to oppose Mamdani’s agenda. (The New York Times)

COURTSIDE CONGESTION: The Knicks’ playoff run could collide with World Cup transit restrictions, creating a major commuting problem for Penn Station. (Gothamist)

MAYOR TAKES AIM: Mamdani is urging state regulators to block Western Union’s $500 million merger with Intermex, warning it could raise costs for immigrant New Yorkers. (Semafor)

Missed this morning’s New York Playbook? We forgive you. Read it here.

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McMaster plans to call special session to redraw South Carolina House map

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South Carolina GOP Gov. Henry McMaster is expected to announce a special session on redistricting, teeing up the state legislature to pass a Republican gerrymander that would almost certainly cost Democratic Rep. Jim Clyburn his seat in this year’s midterms.

Clyburn is the sole Democrat in South Carolina’s House delegation; the new map would dismantle his district, leaving the state with 7 likely red seats and no Democratic-leaning ones.

McMaster’s plan — confirmed by four people familiar with the decision, who were granted anonymity to share private details — is a reversal of his position earlier this month and follows pressure from President Donald Trump and his allies to gerrymander the state.

The looming special session comes after five Republican state senators voted with Democrats to block a measure that would have allowed them to redraw South Carolina’s districts this cycle without a call from McMaster.

The special session will allow lawmakers to pass a new map with a simple majority, making it likely that it will advance given the GOP’s margins.

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Buttigieg picks sides in Iowa

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Pete Buttigieg is picking sides in a heated Senate Democratic primary in the state that cemented his national political profile.

Buttigieg, who won the Iowa Democratic caucuses in 2020, is backing state Rep. Josh Turek — a move that shows his willingness to wade into contested primaries ahead of another possible presidential campaign.

The endorsement comes shortly after Buttigieg’s former 2020 rival, Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, visited earlier this week to campaign for Turek’s opponent, state Sen. Zach Wahls.

“We made history in Iowa in 2020 because our campaign went everywhere,” Buttigieg said in a statement shared first with Blue Light News. “We connected with people in rural towns and the largest cities, focused on the issues that affect everyday life, and brought Democrats, Independents, and even Republicans into the fold. Josh Turek has taken that same proven approach to his campaign, and that’s why I know he will be successful. I believe Iowa can make history again in 2026 by sending Josh to the U.S. Senate.”

Buttigieg’s decision to pick sides in the once-early nominating state is a reversal for him. In March, he told Blue Light News it was “not in my plans” when asked whether he would endorse in sharply contested primaries in his adopted home state of Michigan or in Iowa. And while it could help elevate Turek — and potentially give Buttigieg a valuable ally if he runs in 2028 — it carries some risk of alienating Wahls’ supporters in the hard-fought contest.

It’s not a shock, however. Turek’s campaign in Iowa marks something of a reunion for Buttigieg’s 2020 campaign operation: his former national press secretary Chris Meagher is a Turek adviser, while Buttigieg’s former senior adviser Lis Smith and former aide Matt Corridoni are both advisers to The Bench, a new political group that’s been choosing sides in other Democratic primaries.

It’s not clear whether Iowa will have anywhere near the outsized role it historically held in the Democratic nomination process next time around. A calamitous caucus-night vote count and app breakdown played a role in Democrats bumping Iowa from the front of the primary line in 2024. Iowa Democrats are trying to get back in the first four states, along with a bevy of other states. Democrats are expected to choose their nominating order later this year.

Buttigieg joins Sens. Tammy Duckworth of Illinois, Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada, and Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire in Turek’s corner — as well as former Sen. Tom Harkin (D-Iowa), the last Democrat to represent the state in the Senate.

“I am deeply honored to have Pete’s support in this race,” Turek said in a statement. “His unique ability to connect with Iowans who feel forgotten and left behind is exactly why he won the caucuses in 2020, and it’s that same approach that will help us win Senator Harkin’s seat back.”

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