Congress
Capitol agenda: Thune stares down ‘Medicaid moderates’
It’s megabill crunch time in the Senate.
Arm-twisting over what to change in the House-passed version of the “big, beautiful” bill will largely play out behind closed doors the next few days. Strategy huddles include Senate Finance’s meeting tonight and Wednesday’s “Big Six” confab between Senate Majority Leader John Thune, Speaker Mike Johnson, their tax committee chairs and lead administration officials.
One of Thune’s biggest challenges to pass the bill by July 4 will be winning over the “Medicaid moderates” — an ideological cross-section of members who are aligned against the cuts passed by the House and have the numbers to force changes. Among them: Sens. Josh Hawley of Missouri, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and Susan Collins of Maine. Thune can only lose three GOP senators to pass the megabill.
Thune and Senate Finance Chair Mike Crapo (Idaho), who is juggling Medicaid and tax conflicts in the bill, are talking to key members in anticipation of difficult negotiations. Crapo told Jordain he personally supports the House’s Medicaid work requirements, which some GOP senators wary of benefit cuts say they could also support. But beyond that, they’re steering clear of public commitments.
One potentially major sticking point: The House-passed freeze on provider taxes, which most states use to help finance their share of Medicaid costs. Sen. Jim Justice, the former West Virginia governor, called it a “real issue” and Hawley has also raised concerns. But other GOP senators, including Kevin Cramer (N.D.), want to go even further in reducing, not just freezing, the provider tax.
Republicans got a glimpse of the political minefield surrounding Medicaid while back home last week. Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst’s “we’re all going to die” response to town hall pushback about the cuts — and her decision to double down on the comments — generated days of negative headlines and ad fodder for Democrats.
Mehmet Oz, the head of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, told POLITICO’s Dasha Burns in the debut episode of her podcast “The Conversation” that the Medicaid work requirements in the bill would “future proof” the program.
Then there are the deficit hawks. President Donald Trump over the weekend warned Sen. Rand Paul (Ky.) to get behind the megabill, with Paul vowing to vote against it over an included debt-limit hike.
But it’s not just Paul making noise. Sen. Ron Johnson (Wis.) is calling for a line-by-line budget review to find places to slash more spending, and Sens. Mike Lee (Utah) and Rick Scott (Fla.) are also pushing for more cuts.
Paul hinted at hard-liners’ leverage Sunday on CBS’ “Face the Nation,” saying: “I would be very surprised if the bill at least is not modified in a good direction.”
What else we’re watching:
— Senate Dems make a move: Senate Democrats are preparing to challenge parts of the GOP megabill with the parliamentarian, Minority Leader Chuck Schumer wrote in a “Dear Colleague” letter Sunday. He highlighted a specific House provision that critics say would weaken judges’ power to enforce contempt orders.
— Trump’s budget request faces first tests: The House Appropriations Committee will begin marking up the Military Construction and Veterans Affairs and Agriculture portion of Trump’s fiscal 2026 budget request this Thursday. Trump’s request includes 22 percent cuts in non-defense spending and sweeping cuts that Democrats don’t appear interested in supporting (and their votes will be critical in September to avoid a government shutdown).
— Hitting Blue Light News: Trump administration officials will testify this week in defense of the president’s fiscal 2026 budget. That includes Education Secretary Linda McMahon on Tuesday, Acting FAA administrator Chris Rocheleau on Wednesday and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on Wednesday and Thursday.
Jordain Carney and Jennifer Scholtes contributed to this report.
The Senate is aiming to leave Washington for a five-week recess early Saturday after Republicans cut a deal with President Donald Trump to punt some of their priorities, including a framework for a party-line spending plan.
The Senate is trying to lock in an agreement that would set up votes on a college sports bill, a stopgap government funding bill, Todd Blanche’s attorney general nomination and GOP voter ID legislation, according to a copy of an internal notice reviewed by Blue Light News.
The Senate would then leave Washington until mid-September.
Any one senator could object to the tentative deal, forcing it to be altered or dragging the Senate deeper into the weekend. Senators believe there are still objections to advancing the college sports bill. Democrats are also waiting to see if one of their own will prevent speeding up Blanche’s confirmation.
The breakthrough is a U-turn from earlier Friday evening, when Republican senators emerged from a closed-door meeting predicting they would have to spend Saturday trying to break a stalemate within the party about how to wrap final votes before recess.
Shortly after that meeting, Trump spoke by phone with Senate Republicans including Ron Johnson of Wisconsin, Rick Scott of Florida and Mike Lee of Utah about the path forward for the GOP’s lengthy to-do list.
During the call, according to Johnson, Trump agreed to punt a vote on a budget blueprint for a third party-line spending bill until later in the year. Lee, who has been pushing for action on the separate SAVE America Act, also agreed to drop his demand for a formal, roll call vote on adjourning given the understanding with the president.
“I think the conclusion of the conference – and we had a discussion with the president and he agrees – [is] don’t take the vote tonight,” Johnson said after the meeting in Thune’s office.
Republicans were in talks with the White House throughout Friday. A White House official granted anonymity said Friday evening that “we’re continuing to have productive conversations with senators to advance several legislative priorities.”
Senate Republicans confirmed dozens of President Donald Trump’s nominees Friday, just before they leave for a five-week congressional recess.
Senators voted 51-47 to approve officials at the Departments of Defense, Energy, State and other agencies.
They included David Cummins to head the Transportation Security Administration, Cameron Hamilton to lead the Federal Emergency Management Agency, Hal Duncan to be OMB deputy director and Francis Brooke to be Treasury deputy secretary. Among the group were several ambassadors, including former Rep. David Brat to be ambassador to Australia.
Senate Republicans changed the chamber’s rules last year to be able to confirm lower-level nominees as a package instead of having to hold a vote on each.
After finishing the expedited procedure Friday, Senate Republicans estimate they will only have a small number of civilian nominees awaiting confirmation.
President Donald Trump said voters may seek to punish Republicans — but not him — in the November midterm elections, as GOP lawmakers sweat that affordability concerns and the war in Iran could mean Democrats flip the House and perhaps even the Senate.
“They’re angry at Republicans,” Trump said in an interview with Punchbowl News that aired Friday. “But they’re not angry at me. They’re not angry at me, but they are angry at Republicans.”
The GOP faces the prospect of heavy losses this November, as gas and grocery prices remain stubbornly high due in part to the White House’s five-month-long war in Iran. The administration’s guidance on campaign trail messaging has been “tone deaf,” House Republicans fear.
Meanwhile, the president’s approval rating has tumbled since he returned to the Oval Office last year, and even his biggest supporters have grown frustrated over his Middle East war.
And with a messy, jam-packed slate of primaries now all but in the rearview mirror, Democrats are determined to go on offense. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has 58 seats on its midterm target map that stretches into redder territory — while still facing an uphill climb to take the Senate.
Trump has a massive war chest at his disposal. His MAGA Inc. super PAC reached $400 million in June. The president told Punchbowl he plans to use it to “help Republicans,” but he stressed that he faces no pressure in this campaign cycle.
“I said to somebody, ‘Wait a minute, you don’t understand, I won,’” Trump said, referencing his 2024 presidential election victory. “I’m not campaigning.”
The biggest issue for Republicans this year? That Trump himself is not on the ballot, he said.
“If I don’t run, will those people go out and vote? And that’s the one thing I can’t tell, I’m going to ask them to,” he said.
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