Congress
Capitol agenda: Thune heads into a perilous vote-a-rama
The Senate’s “big, beautiful” vote-a-rama starts in just two hours — and nobody knows how it’s going to end.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune can only lose one more vote with Sens. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) and Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) already opposed. As Senate GOP leaders scramble to strike deals to keep the bill on track, House Republicans are drawing red lines, with fiscal hawks threatening to tank the bill over the Senate’s budget framework and moderates balking at the provider-tax crackdown.
Here are the big fights we’re watching when amendment votes kick off at 9 a.m., leading to a final vote on passage late Monday or early Tuesday:
Medicaid: GOP Sen. Rick Scott’s proposal to curb a key Medicaid funding mechanism after 2030 has Thune’s support as part of a deal struck to get the Florida senator and a handful of other holdouts to advance the megabill to debate.
If it fails, it could cost leadership some fiscal hawks, though Sens. Scott and Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) refused to go there Sunday night. If it passes, it could alienate so-called Medicaid moderates. One of them, Sen. Susan Collins of Maine, filed an amendment that would double the stabilization fund for rural hospitals to $50 billion, and pay for it by adding a 39.6-percent bracket on earners making over $25 million.
Medicaid moderates could also try to further water down the bill’s cut to the provider tax. Keep an eye on Tillis, now unburdened by a reelection bid, who slammed the Medicaid cuts in a fiery floor speech Sunday and might jump in again. Another key player to watch is Sen. Lisa Murkowski and whether her support slips after the parliamentarian derailed Medicaid-payment provisions aimed at winning over the Alaskan. The parliamentarian also, as of early this morning, had yet to rule on food-aid waivers for Alaska that could affect Murkowski’s vote.
Green credits: Moderates including Tillis and Sen. John Curtis (R-Utah) could offer amendments to soften the bill’s deep cuts against wind and solar energy, including its crackdown on IRA credits and a new excise tax. That could provoke a fight with House conservatives and the White House, which have pushed for aggressive rollbacks.
AI: Commerce Chair Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.) are pitching a plan to cut the megabill’s 10-year moratorium on state enforcement of AI laws in half and make accommodations for internet protections.
The grand finale could be a manager’s amendment that House GOP leaders are pushing for to further resolve differences between the chambers and speed the bill to Trump by Friday. The House is scheduled to vote as soon as Wednesday at 9 a.m.
What else we’re watching:
— Farm bill fight: Dozens of agriculture groups are urging senators to oppose an amendment from Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) that would limit income thresholds of farmers who can receive federal aid. A host of farm-state GOP senators also oppose Grassley’s push, according to three people granted anonymity. Some are concerned that liberal senators could join with conservative fiscal hawks to pass the amendment.
— Solar and wind tax backlash: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the Solar Energy Industry Association are slamming a new addition to the megabill that would tax solar and wind projects that have components from foreign sources, including China. “Taxing energy production is never good policy, whether oil & gas or, in this case, renewables,” Chamber executive vice president and chief policy officer Neil Bradley wrote on X.
— Campaign announcements: Rep. Don Bacon is expected to announce his retirement Monday, according to two people familiar with his plans. The centrist Republican’s Nebraska seat is a prime pickup opportunity for Democrats; it’s one of only three GOP-held districts Kamala Harris won in 2024. Meanwhile GOP Rep. Dusty Johnson is expected to announce a bid for South Dakota governor on Monday, according to two people familiar with his planning. He’ll be the eighth House Republican to run for higher office in 2026.
Jordain Carney, Meredith Lee Hill, Mohar Chatterjee and Josh Siegel contributed to this report.
Democrats are eager to win back subpoena power if they retake Congress, but they’re split on how hard they’ll go after corporate America.
The party is united by the idea of aggressive oversight of President Donald Trump’s administration, which will help shape their messaging in the run-up to the 2028 election. But Democrats are at odds over how fiercely to use their probing power to go after the corporations, law firms and universities that courted the White House over the past two years.
“We don’t want to turn into a banana republic where you lose an election and it’s all about retribution,” Rep. Bill Foster, a senior member of the Financial Services Committee, said.
“We’re going to have to be a little bit wise about when companies simply did something they had to do to survive this unprecedented level of corruption, compared to companies that actually got on board and profited more by being a partner in his corruption,” he added.
Some progressives counter that a restrained approach would sit uneasily with the party’s base.
“It would be political suicide for Democrats to campaign on fighting corruption and then turn around and go easy on the very companies that are facilitating it,” said Ella Fanger, corporate power policy adviser at the liberal nonprofit group Demand Progress.
Prime targets for some Democrats are the tech companies that have taken steps to be on the president’s good side, like Apple, Amazon and Meta, which have all donated to Trump’s ballroom effort. Major cryptocurrency players, including Coinbase, Ripple and Tether also chipped in for the ballroom, and will be subject to questioning from Democrats.
The late convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein’s networks and associates are also poised for probes — a push that has ensnared big banks like JPMorgan Chase, Deutsche Bank and Bank of America in the past.
Sen. Chris Murphy said the party should focus on the nexus between Trump and corporate corruption.
“We should get to the bottom of the corrupt relationship that exists between corporations in this country and the Trump administration,” Murphy said, pointing to questions he’s posed about a tobacco company’s donation to Trump’s super PAC before new e-cigarette rules were unveiled.
Still, Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, who serves on Senate Banking, warned against the weaponization of power.
“Our focus should be solving problems that we’re seeing happening,” she said, pointing to cost-of-living issues around health care, housing and energy.
What else we’re watching:
— FIRST IN IC: BUILD AMERICA CAUCUS AGENDA — Energized by progress on permitting and housing legislation this term, a bipartisan development-focused caucus is rolling out a detailed agenda for next term. The 40-member Build America Caucus is releasing a 95-page package of proposals, first shared with Blue Light News, that outlines plans touching on health care, transportation, child care and research. The group launched last year with the goal of cutting red tape and regulatory bottlenecks to spur development.
— AI COLLAB STILL ILLUSIVE FOR CRUZ, CANTWELL — Commerce Chair Ted Cruz and ranking member Maria Cantwell might still be celebrating Senate passage of their landmark college sports bill last week, but it’s unclear the momentum will carry forward to agreement on another committee priority: artificial intelligence. Among the dozen lawmakers, aides and industry experts who spoke to Blue Light News, few expect the two senators to shed their well-established ideologies and styles after the mutual win. That could doom their ability to replicate their latest achievement in something as complex and divisive as an AI regulatory framework.
Jasper Goodman, Katherine Hapgood, Riley Rogerson and Kelsey Brugger contributed to this report.
Four years ago, California Rep. Ro Khanna’s staff voted to unionize — one of a handful of Democratic offices that sought to ride a wave of organizing momentum during then-President Joe Biden’s administration.
Much has changed since, to put it mildly, but Khanna aides persevered and recently won approval of their first collectively bargained contract — the first labor agreement of its kind inside Congress.
“This was four years in the making,” Nicole Waring, a deputy director of constituent services for Khanna and the union steward, said in an interview. “We finally, finally reached the point where we were able to finalize our contract and ratify it.”
The agonizing process of turning pro-union enthusiasm into an actual binding agreement is both a breakthrough for the fitful labor movement on Capitol Hill while also underscoring how that movement has sputtered in the years since Biden left office, Donald Trump took back the White House and unionization moved off the front burner for Democratic staffers.
Since an initial wave of offices voted to unionize in 2022, that momentum has largely petered out. Less than a dozen offices are now unionized as staffers’ efforts are complicated by heavy workloads, adversarial bosses and Congress’ recent record high turnover rates that have led some aides to the conclusion that unionizing is more trouble than it’s worth.
Against that backdrop, that the eight-person union in Khanna’s office was able to win a contract constitutes a bright spot for organizers.
The agreement establishes a higher salary floor and a mechanism to renegotiate salaries if the office’s budget allowance increases, according to Waring and portions of the text reviewed by Blue Light News.
The document also codifies a procedure to resolve internal grievances. When Khanna almost certainly wins reelection, the agreement — which was officially ratified in August — will continue through next term.
“I’m proud of our office for signing the first long-term contract in the history of the U.S. Congress. I hope this can serve as a model for other offices in Congress,” Khanna said in a statement thanking his staff. “We need to be a model for the collective bargaining in our offices that we want to see across our nation.”
Waring said Khanna and his senior aides were supportive and trusting during contract negotiation but noted that, even under those positive circumstances, the effort was time- and labor-intensive.
“There’s a lot of back and forth. It takes time to review each passback of the contract, redline everything,” Waring said. “The biggest thing was we wanted to make sure that this contract would be governable, and rather than just make things convenient and take shortcuts, make sure that it was going to be something that we knew would stand the test of time.”
Khanna’s chief of staff, Marie Baldassarre, said in an interview the process for her office took years because “we realized like this is going to actually impact people’s lives, and it’s a binding contract, and so we have to get it right.”
“It’s just never been done before, and none of us were experts,” she added.
Staffers on Capitol Hill often face a grueling office cultures that can hamstring efforts to advance worker protections. Staffers for pro-labor Rep. Dina Titus (D-Nev.), for example, voted to unionize in 2023 but then faced internal retaliation, according to the Nevada Independent.
Staffers for lawmakers across the ideological spectrum can be subjected to long hours, eyebrow-raising member requests and unrelenting demands that can spur staffer interest in pursuing labor protections — but also fears about potentially hindering their careers.
A person involved in the Congressional Workers Union — an umbrella group that provides support to individual office bargaining units — called the Khanna office contract “historic” and acknowledged it was “probably the biggest win recently” for the broader organizing effort.
“There’s small wins all the time,” added the person, who was not authorized to speak publicly on behalf of the group.
Staffers for former Rep. Andy Levin (D-Mich.) ratified a contract in the final days of his term in December 2022. While that contract was technically the first for a member office, it was largely symbolic given Levin’s imminent departure. Staff for Reps. Mark Pocan (D-Wis.) and Val Hoyle (D-Ore.) secured “memorandums of understanding” with their members in 2024, but not formal contracts.
“Hats off to them for getting it done,” Levin said in an interview. “In terms of what comes next, much will depend on the outcome of the midterms.”
Levin, a labor attorney, said that Republican majorities and White House have had a chilling effect on Capitol Hill unions and predicted that if Democrats take back the House majority next year, a flurry of labor activity will ensue. He added that several Democrats with close ties to organized labor are poised to enter the House, naming fellow Michigan Democrat and former SEIU organizer Donavan McKinney.
“In this political climate, the idea of getting contracts negotiated on Blue Light News, where it’s hardly ever been done, I think that seems very challenging to me,” Levin said. “I do think it’s great that another office has gotten the first contract, and I think the momentum will continue to grow from here.”
Congress
Why Cruz and Cantwell’s big win on college sports probably won’t lead to an AI breakthrough
Sens. Ted Cruz and Maria Cantwell typically find themselves at odds, but in the past week each expressed optimism that their major bipartisan breakthrough on college sports could set them up to tackle other big things — like artificial intelligence.
Evidence suggests that confidence ought to be tempered.
Cruz, a Texas Republican, and Cantwell, a Washington Democrat, have served together atop the Senate Commerce Committee for nearly four years — with Cantwell first serving as chair before turning the gavel over to Cruz in 2025.
They have occasionally found common ground, such as trying to eliminate hidden ticket fees for concerts and sporting events, and enacting safety measures after the deadly plane crash near Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport. Their bill to overhaul the multibillion-dollar college sports industry, which overwhelmingly passed the Senate last week, has been their highest-profile achievement to date, requiring months of brass-tacks negotiations, painful compromises and uncomfortable divisions with colleagues and key constituencies.
Asked if her partnership with Cruz on college sports could translate into an agreement on AI, Cantwell did not exactly embrace the idea.
“I thought a century ago … if we all worked together and got something done on the sports thing, it would be a good basis to show we could get something done on privacy and AI,” she said. “And look how long it took.”
After a pause, she added, “I think this is showing people that you can get something done.”
Posed the same question, Cruz said in an interview he did think the college sports win bodes well for future collaborations.
“Senator Cantwell and I have a very good, productive working relationship, and she is someone who works very hard,” he said. “And without her tireless work and commitment to getting this done, we’d never be here.”
But among the dozen lawmakers, aides and industry experts who spoke to Blue Light News, few expect the two senators to shed their well-established ideologies and styles. That could doom their ability to replicate their latest achievement in something as complex and divisive as an AI regulatory framework.
“I believe that bipartisanship is a muscle and therefore does atrophy. And I think that when you have one success, that is a good omen for future success,” said Sen. John Hickenlooper (D-Colo.), who sits on the Commerce Committee and was involved in negotiations over the college sports package.
“It is no guarantee,” he acknowledged, “and AI is a whole different kettle of fish.”
Cantwell is a longtime Democratic politician and former tech executive — so firm in her belief in strong federal AI guardrails it’s hard to imagine a path to consensus with Cruz, whom she has a history of publicly bashing when the two are divided on an issue.
Cruz is a staunch conservative with a popular podcast and well-known desire to be president. He has sought to balance his concern that AI threats are “scary as hell” with his allegiance to the White House, which argues that heavy regulations on the industry would cede ground to China.
With college sports regulation, they shared the belief that there was a problem for Congress to solve — that a wide range of college sports programs risked being canceled in an era when powerhouse schools could pay huge sums of money to attract top athletes.
Both Cruz and Cantwell wanted to establish national rules on compensation, eligibility and transfers while preserving the rights of students to earn money from their name, image and likeness.
The senators and their aides spent countless hours together in conference rooms, with Cruz often saying he would bring out “very sweet Cuban coffee” when discussions became tense. Cruz, eager to advance a bill backed by Trump, was willing to make concessions to win Democratic support after failing to move an earlier version of the package. For instance, he backed off his insistence that student-athletes be defined in the bill as non-employees.
Cantwell, for her part, broke with years of Democratic resistance to granting the NCAA any antitrust protections at all. An earlier bill she sponsored dealing with student-athlete rights did not include such protections. And when her bill with Cruz passed, Cantwell acknowledged there was still “more to do.”
Their approach to AI legislation so far is not as clear cut. While Cantwell has pushed for stricter regulations, Cruz’s exact perspective is harder to pin down. And while he’s been promising for months to convene hearings and markups on bipartisan AI safety legislation, he has yet to do so. In September, he blamed stalled negotiations between Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.).
Even as Cruz and Cantwell were busy making progress on college sports over the summer, Cantwell was openly telling reporters that Cruz had tried to undermine her on AI policy in late 2024. That’s when she, as Commerce chair, attempted without success to bring seven bipartisan measures related to AI to the Senate floor that had advanced through the committee.
“There’s a lot of bipartisan bills that he put his big foot on” and “basically stonewalled” in the previous Congress, Cantwell griped — a sign of the deep distrust that still remains between the two lawmakers. Cruz’s aides at the time disputed he had sought to undercut her efforts.
Back in 2024, Cruz was also regularly blasting Democratic-led efforts to regulate the AI industry. At one Committee Committee hearing, he warned that creating a new bureaucracy to prevent AI models from annihilating the human race amounted to “an absurd exaggeration that would make Arthur C. Clarke and Isaac Asimov laugh” — references to the famous science fiction writers.
With the college sports legislation, Cantwell and Cruz were united enough in their larger mission they were each willing to take on powerful forces inside their own parties.
Cantwell forged ahead despite deep opposition from members of the Congressional Black Caucus and organized labor. Cruz had to arm-twist GOP senators who had objections, including former college football coach-turned-Alabama Sen. Tommy Tuberville. Their bill eventually passed the Senate 77-22, but there’s still no guarantee it will be victorious in the House.
With AI legislation, it’s not clear whether either senator has the fortitude to lock arms around a framework and take similar risks.
The results of the midterm elections also will determine whether it’s Cruz or Cantwell who will hold the Commerce gavel in January. That dynamic will, in turn, affect what sort of dealmaking can be achieved going forward.
Sen. Todd Young, an Indiana Republican who sits on the Senate Commerce Committee and was initially opposed to the college athletics legislation before voting “yes,” said in an interview he was trying to remain positive.
“Do I think that the sports initiative is a confidence-building measure to bring them together and sweet harmony on AI?” Young said. “Maybe. I hope so.”
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